Free Tips Friday: Sam Darby’s Flat Preview (Now Live)

Chartwell House The Solid Choice At Haydock

The Friday column continues in decent form with Majestic finishing 2nd last week at a fair (early) each way price. My best selections over the last 6 weeks have produced form figures of 111022 and it’s worth noting the unplaced effort came from Gioia Cieca at York and that horse has since proved that run all wrong with a close 2nd at Musselburgh last weekend, he was only beaten by a better positioned rival on the day.

Waiting For A Better Race

I wasn’t really in love with Friday’s racing when I looked through it so for the second time I’m going to switch my attention to Saturday instead.

I’m not overly excited about Saturday’s offerings to be honest. The only card that appeals is the one at Haydock and I’m slightly wary after the ground apparently rode good to soft during their last meeting a couple of weeks ago, despite being called good to firm. They’ve been watering to similar amounts this week and I wouldn’t be confident they’ll be producing anything better than good ground.

Another feature of the most recent Haydock meeting was the high draw bias in the sprints. I did hope to take advantage of that in their 1.50 but the bookies seem to be on to it with their pricing. My higher drawn interests in that race would be Cooperation and Silver Samurai and since the latter is wearing first time cheekpieces I’m happy to stick with the former (I don’t back horses in first time headgear, they underperform more often than they overperform). Mr Wagyu also looks nailed on to go well in that race.

With the straight course races I’m wary of the bias being ‘watered out’ this time potentially so I’ll stick with a round course race for the purposes of this preview.

At this time of year I’m just beginning to build my list of 3yos to follow and there is one I have my eye on in the 4.10. Both William Hill and SkyBet have priced up so I at least have some guide prices to work with.

William Knight Runner Of Major Interest

The one that is in my tracker here is Chartwell House. Despite pulling hard on seasonal debut at Newmarket, over this trip on good ground, he finished a very good 3rd in what has turned out to be a very hot contest.

Five different winners have already emerged from that race and it’s also worth noting the 4th, 5th and 6th have all finished 2nd since so with a bit more luck we’d be looking at 8 subsequent winners from the contest.

Chartwell House underperformed next time out but that came on officially soft ground (was more like heavy) on 2000 Guineas day so that is easily forgiven. He bounced back to form last time out when a close enough 4th, again over 7f at Newmarket on good ground. It’s worth noting that the winner of that race was Havana Blue, one of the subsequent winners from Chartwell House’s seasonal debut. Chartwell House probably ran a couple of pounds worse than Havana Blue from their previous meeting, or Havana Blue ran a couple of pounds better, but Chartwell House was slightly apart from the first 3 home that day so track position perhaps accounted for that slight difference.

Statistically it’s an advantage to race prominently over 7f here and that’s exactly where Chartwell House should be, he’ll likely track Overrule and In These Shoes who should be the early pacesetters.

Step Up In Trip Could Suit Hougoumont

Hougoumont doesn’t look an obvious contender based on his two runs so far this season where he’s looked in the grips of the handicapper. Both those runs have come over 6f and on his latest appearance, which came here, he was outpaced near the rear for much of the race but in the final furlong he passed five rivals to finish 4th. The winner and runner up have both come out of that race and won next time out which adds substance to the form.

That run suggested he’d improve for another furlong, for all that he’s fairly speedily bred. He’s worth watching out for but wouldn’t be one to put 100% faith in and he might be one for next time instead, whether he stays or not.

A Quick Look At The Remainder

This isn’t a massive field so I’ll quickly go through what I think of the rest of the field. Plenty of guesswork required with these lightly raced 3yos at this point in the season.

In These Shoes is the early market leader. The only time Charlie Johnston has booked Ryan Moore this season they were successful and this runner won his only start this season in a small field even at Beverley. He got the run of the race that day and the race has worked out poorly which would be a worry for backers. To be fair he won that well and it’s not his fault he beat bad horses but he looks poor value if nothing else.

Bussento is shorter than I expected in the market at joint second favourite. He is well handicapped on last season’s form but he’s not run anywhere near that level in three efforts this season. You could maybe forgive the last two on account of the ground but he was still slightly below par on the all weather on seasonal debut. On that occasion he ran into two big improvers who have since rated 109 and 94 but at the weights he still didn’t run to his current rating of 82 given the distances beaten. He’ll be happier back on this ground but he’ll probably need to improve for going back in trip as well and the bookies have taken no chances at all with his price.

Royal Charter makes his seasonal debut for William Haggas and he too looks too short. His debut win was nothing special and he was outclassed in the Keeneland Stakes. Most worrying is the form of the stable, in the past two weeks they’ve had 22 runners priced between 6/4 and 9/1 and only one has won. Lots have run well in defeat but they still don’t look to be really firing yet.

Out Of The Shadows has run well on both starts this season but the 5lb rise for his win at Wolverhampton has perhaps found him out as he got the run of the race when 3rd last time out at Musselburgh. He’ll need to improve for the drop in trip.

Overrule has been well beaten on both starts this season and softer ground isn’t an excuse for those as he won on heavy last season. Dionysian hasn’t shown anything in two runs this season and Sunny Orange would have minor claims on his season debut 2nd at Beverley but he hasn’t been as good on his last two runs.

Final Verdict

The trio that head the betting early (In These Shoes, Bussento and Royal Charter) all have their chance but there is a degree of guesswork involved with all of them and they all look poor value.

I think the solid each way against them is CHARTWELL HOUSE. He’s clearly not a stone well in, which some at shorter prices MIGHT be, but I’m not convinced any of them are and I wouldn’t be surprised if at least two of the favourites run below market expectations.

Both of Chartwell House’s runs this season away from soft ground give him a chance here, particularly his seasonal debut. The stable is perhaps a little below expectations at the minute but they’ve been sending out a lot of runners at relatively big prices so that’s fair enough – two of their last four runners at single figure odds have finished 2nd so it’s not like they are massively out of form.

I’d rate this a smallish each way punt at the early 8/1 and 15/2 and if double figure odds were available overnight he’d be pushing a medium bet in terms of stakes.

I’m interested to see how Hougoumont goes as I like the fact his form last time out here has been franked not once but twice. I’m not sure this will set up ideally for him though.

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