Free Tips Friday: Sam Darby’s Flat Preview

With A Better Ride This 7/1 Chance Can Go Close

A fair effort in last week’s race at Pontefract, even if I didn’t get the winner. I suggested Global Spirit and Garden Oasis were both worth backing, with slight preference for the latter.

Global Spirit didn’t run well and he’s proved disappointing this season after a couple of decent early spins but Garden Oasis ran a blinder to finish 2nd at 20/1, only beaten by a better drawn prominent racer (who I didn’t particularly fancy).

He’s certainly one to watch out for on fast ground back at Ripon this season, especially when an easy lead looks likely. That good Pontefract run won’t have helped the price though.

Better Racing On The Horizon

I must admit I’ve really struggled to find anything worth tipping over the past couple of weeks. The racing hasn’t been great but I think the lack of fast ground form this season has made the transition to faster ground in recent weeks quite difficult to get a handle on.

Now that we’ve had a few weeks of racing on better ground the form should hold up and I’ve been adding plenty of fresh meat to my tracker with all the big field 3yo only handicaps that have been run recently. I’ll continue to add another 100+ horses over the next couple of months.

The racing looks top notch over the next couple of days and that’s ignoring the Epsom Classics. They are the icing on the cake but for me, they are watching races and not betting races and it’s the good handicaps I’m looking forward to getting stuck into.

On the subject of those handicaps, I was hoping to make Dutch Decoy a relatively strong nap in the 2.35 at Epsom on Friday but there is barely a front runner in the entire field and I can see that race being extremely tactical. That is unlikely to suit Dutch Decoy who is going to need a seriously good ride from Neil Callan if he’s to win. Most likely outcome is he’s running on too late but if that’s the case there will be another day for him.

I’ve found it quite difficult to choose between the 3.45pm and 5.45pm (both Epsom). My fancy in the latter race is purely down to draw and pace, which are very strong factors, but I can make a stronger form case for my one in the earlier contest and that’s what I’ll attempt to articulate here.

Nice Handicap Despite The Turnout

It’s a bit of a shame that this race has only attracted a field of 11 but there are some lightly raced runners in here and the right horses are near the head of the market, for all I’m not sure if they are necessarily in the right order.

At the time of writing it is Honiton who heads the betting. Lightly raced, won a handicap last time out, trained by John and Thady Gosden, it’s easy to see why he’s well fancied and the gelding operation he had over the winter seems to have had a positive effect.

He clearly didn’t enjoy the heavy ground at Goodwood on seasonal debut but he bounced back to form last time out at Newmarket. He got the run of the race that day in a 6 runner contest and he’s unlikely to find things so easy here. The handicapper has been fair by only putting him up 4lbs for that victory, given he won a little cosily in the end, but I’m not sure he beat all that much given how things panned out. If he tries to lead again, which presumably he will, Masekela could make his life difficult by pestering him out in front.

Dual Identity was 2.5 lengths behind Honiton last time out. He’s proved disappointing so far this term and I see no reason why he should reverse the form, even in a slightly better run race.

Can I Recoup Losses?

One of my more annoying losing tips so far this season has been Majestic. I quite fancied him to land the Suffolk Stakes on 2000 Guineas day based not only on his Cambridgeshire win from last season, but also based on his seasonal debut in the Lincoln. That race was working out well at the time and it has continued to do so with the current subsequent winners list now including the 5th, 8th, 9th, 11th, 13th, 19th and 22nd. Majestic was 4th in that race over a trip that looked short of his best (he’s proven over 10f but I think he’ll stay 12f given he’s by a soft ground St Leger winner and his full brother won over 12f).

That Lincoln run came on heavy ground so I wasn’t unduly concerned by softening ground when he ran in the Suffolk Stakes but he ran no race whatsoever that day and connections chose to blame the ground. I’m not sure if it was only the ground that caused him to run badly but I wasn’t upset to see his next run come on much faster ground.

Because he’d run so poorly at Newmarket I didn’t really feel like I could tip him at York but I did think he was good value to bounce back at the early 14/1 so I did back him myself. Majestic normally races in mid division but Ronan Whelan, on his first time riding the horse, needlessly dropped him out in last Jamie Spencer style. It was a race of two biases with the stands’ side rail proving the best place to be and the horses ridden prominently were also at an advantage. Given Majestic came from last to 4th, beaten just a length, and challenged up the centre of the track, he can be marked up significantly and I think he has a handicap like this in him off his current mark.

The winner of that race was Marhaba The Champ who reopposes here, just 2lb worse off. He did well to win from mid division but he did challenge right on the near side rail which is a route many York winners have been exploiting in recent weeks so I’m not convinced he’ll confirm form with Majestic. He’s presumably a shorter price than Majestic because he’s had fewer races and that win came on seasonal debut so he might have more improvement in him but in my opinion Majestic can improve more from that running because of how circumstances conspired against him.

Savvy Looks Solid

Savvy Victory looks likely to run well again but you have to question how much he has in hand of the handicapper off a mark of 106. He was always well positioned when 2nd last time out and he’s worse off with Majestic for a 4 length defeat in the Cambridgeshire last season so I really fail to see why he’s a shorter price here with most bookies.

Best Of The Rest

Bad Company loves it here but he’s very high in the weights now and he prefers easier ground so he’s easy enough to oppose. Toshizou isn’t badly handicapped but he looks to want softer ground as well.

The two outsiders here aren’t completely disinteresting to me. Lord Protector is well handicapped but hasn’t shown much in two starts this season. He won on soft early in his career but evidence since suggests he wants better ground which is noteworthy as his runs this season have both come on soft. He needs dropping out and will likely be seen making late headway. I prefer him to The City’s Phantom who is also a massive price but he too is better than his recent form figures suggest and I wouldn’t be surprised if he outran his odds. I do think he’s out of his grade here though so I can’t really see him placing, but I don’t think he’ll finish last by any means.

Final Verdict

I wouldn’t be overly shocked if any of the market leaders won this, or even if Lord Protector popped up at a massive price (25/1) but the one I think is most likely to go close is MAJESTIC and I’m happy with 7/1 (which is disappearing) on him, with plenty of bookies paying 4 places which is handy in an 11 runner field.

A smallish field and a solid pace could be ideal for Majestic who was given a poor ride last time and I fancy him to reverse form with Marhaba The Champ as long as he isn’t dropped out in last again. Horses that race in mid division have a pretty good record over what is probably the fairest course and distance at Epsom in terms of track biases and that is hopefully where Majestic will be early on (although I wouldn’t be devastated if he was ridden prominently).

I have no strong suggestion as to the main danger. Logic dictates it would be Marhaba The Champ given how closely matched they were last time out but he only really took off in the final half furlong on the favoured rail and I’m not 100% convinced he’ll repeat that form here, for all the pick of his form last season also suggests he’s well enough handicapped.

Savvy Victory should be around the 3rd or 4th mark and as mentioned previously, I wouldn’t be shocked if Lord Protector bounced back to form but he’d rate a very risky bet. I’d rather see what he does here on better ground with a view to perhaps backing him next time out.

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