Sam has been in great form in the last three weeks on here, banging in x3 winners in a row, which is much deserved given the effort that goes into these free previews. Obviously its not all about the ‘tips’, for all winners help, but there’s plenty of value packed into Sam’s musings.
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Over to Sam with this week’s thoughts… if you’re short on time, just jump to the ‘final verdict’ at the bottom…
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This Very Well Handicapped York Runner Could Be My Bet Of The Season (So Far)
That’s 3 in a row now for this column with Pride Of America winning at an early 15/2 and an SP of 4/1 last week at Chester. It seemed every tipping column that went up on Thursday and Friday seemed to be tipping the horse for the same reasons as I went for so it was no surprise to see him shorten plenty.
I mentioned in last week’s write up that I thought Groundbreaker would be the one to take from the race going forward and I’m still of that opinion after the race. He’ll probably be suited by 12f but I wouldn’t be put off backing him over a relatively stiff 10f. Faster ground should suit him.
I’ve been regularly suggesting horses to follow next time and one I mentioned a few weeks ago that I thought would be winning very soon was Crazy Luck, who you may have noticed ran on Monday at Windsor. I ended up not backing him as I didn’t like anything about the race, or his price, so I was slightly glad he didn’t win but by finishing a very close 2nd he’s ruined his price next time and will be carrying a couple more pounds too. They’ll need to find a very competitive race for him next time to be a nice price and I’d be more than happy for him to go to Newmarket, a course he doesn’t seem to like, so that we can get the price on the next run after that.
It’s also been nice to see the sun shining this week. A dry May means the formbook stands up in June and July and we didn’t get that for the first half of the month but there have been some good handicaps run this week on faster ground and I’ll very much be monitoring how those are working out with regards to keeping my tracker nice and fresh.
Obvious Race Of Choice This Week
I did think I’d be going through the 10f handicap at York, due off at 3pm, but I don’t have a strong opinion on that after the final decs. I do have 8 of the 20 runners from the 4.45pm at York in my tracker, including one that has been high up on my list to back next time out, so that is the obvious race to analyse this week I think.
The Fairest York Distance?
I’m always keen to back the pace horses over 5f and 6f at York, and to a certain extent 1m as well, although it’s not quite as crucial at that trip, however the 7f distance here seems very fair in terms of draw and pace. Each run style has a pretty similar win and place record and other than the extremely high stalls (15+) there isn’t much of a draw bias. Those very high stalls do tend to underperform.
It should be noted though that there doesn’t seem to be a massive amount of pace in this contest which is an added consideration. I wouldn’t want to be backing anything that is likely to be held up here and in a race where they are likely to be very well grouped there could be traffic problems aplenty.
Does This Horse Really Have 15lbs In Hand?
I’m going to jump straight in here with the one I like the most, before giving a few shouts to others.
Gioia Cieca isn’t a horse who had been on my radar until his first run of this season at Musselburgh. He was well drawn and got the run of the race so wouldn’t have been the main one to take from the race but that race has worked out really well.
The winner, Gweedore, also got the run of the race but he was still able to finish 2nd next time out on ground that was probably a bit too fast, whilst also going off too fast. That 2nd doesn’t really need to be marked up, but it can be. The runner up was Spirit Of Light who finished a close 3rd next time out, just behind Rebel Territory and Vafortino. Those names might ring a bell because they were 1st and 3rd next time in the Victoria Cup on Saturday. Spirit Of Light also finished a slightly unlucky 4th in the big sprint handicap at York on Wednesday. He’s massively well handicapped.
The 4th home in the Musselburgh race was The Gatekeeper, who won nicely next time at Newmarket and the 5th home was Northern Express, the big eyecatcher of the race. He was another to frank that form with a win in the Thirsk Hunt Cup next time out, despite the ground seemingly going against him.
The front 6 pulled clear of the field in this Musselburgh race and the 6th home, beaten over 5 lengths, was only narrowly beaten next time when 2nd, dropped to an inadequate 5f. He’s another winner waiting to happen from that race.
Gioia Cieca, who was 3rd in the really strong race in question, has also run since and he was so much better than the bare result.
He got squeezed out at the start and was unable to chase the pace like he had done on seasonal debut. In the end he had to be dropped out in last to avoid going wide round the bend. If you are unfamiliar with the pace bias over 7f at Musselburgh, it is pretty disastrous to be held up early on! If you stop the race at the half way point, the winner is tracking the pace, the runner up is on the speed, the 3rd is in mid division but in touch and the 4th is prominent on the rail. In the end Gioia Cieca did really well to come from last to get 5th, especially as he had to switch to get a clear run.
You could mark up the effort of Gioia Cieca on both runs this season as they’ve both come on good to soft ground. His best turf efforts previously had all come on good to firm ground.
Looking at his previous runs on good to firm, he won off a 10lb higher mark in a decent small field race 2 years ago and after that he was only narrowly beaten by Modern News, giving that horse 1lb. That’s the Modern News that won next time out, won the Spring Cup handicap at Newbury, won a listed race at Windsor, finished 2nd in multiple Group 3s and ended up rated 111.
That close 2nd earned Gioia Cieca a peak rating of 98, 15lbs higher than his current rating, and if Modern News’ subsequent form had been known at the time he would have gone up even more.
He rather lost his form the following season but it’s worth noting his only good run came on his only run on good to firm ground. That was when a close(ish) 4th at Haydock off a 13lb higher rating than this. He was gelded and given a wind op at the end of last season and based on the two runs so far this season those two decisions have worked the trick in getting him back to form.
His draw here is fine, the faster ground should massively suit and possibly see an even better run than we saw first time out in that red hot handicap, and if he races handily again he should be perfectly placed when this race develops. I’m not a massive Graham Lee fan but he did ride him okay on seasonal debut and if he gets a decent position early on he shouldn’t be able to make too much of a mess of this. If he chooses to hold the horse up we won’t ever back anything he rides again! Keith Dalgleish seems in good form at the minute which adds to confidence.
The Main Dangers
Normally in a race like this I write down about 5 or 6 horses with various notes next to their names. My piece of paper is alarmingly blank here!
Ascot Adventure is one I mentioned a few weeks back as he was entered at Leicester against Dashing Dick He was withdrawn on heavy ground that day and I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s withdrawn on fast ground here. I think he wants good to soft ground and I backed him last season on fast ground at Doncaster when he traveled like a dream and found nothing which backs up that he needs some cut in the ground.
No Nay Nicki is one I also followed last season, including when 2nd here over course and distance. I don’t know why connections bothered trying her over 10f last season, she unsurprisingly didn’t stay, but she’d been in good form before that and she’s still well handicapped. This is her first run of the season though and at the time of writing Richard Fahey’s horses haven’t been flying on seasonal debut. They haven’t been running badly but many have come on for the run. She’s probably the main danger if remotely fit.
Seven Brothers won a very hot handicap first time up last season but he’s been inconsistent since. He’d have a decent chance in this based on his unlucky Windsor 3rd on 2nd run for Scott Dixon last year but his horses are seemingly very much needing the run this season so maybe he’s one for next time.
For various reasons I’m against most of the remaining runners. Golden Apollo is always worth a shout at this course but he seems a little high in the handicap at this point and he’s drawn very wide so this probably isn’t the day to catch him.
Final Verdict
When I like a horse I often think the wrong race has been found for it, be it because the pace setup is wrong, the course is unlikely to suit, the ground isn’t perfect or it’s simply too uncompetitive to have a decent bet in. And when the race is competitive I often fear at least 2 or 3 of the rivals against it.
I’m therefore struggling to talk myself out of a decent bet on GIOIA CIECA (4.45pm York). He SHOULD be well placed (if Graham Lee does his job in the first furlong), the ground will be perfect, I think this is a relatively poor race for the field size and he’s proven off much higher marks in the past and a slightly higher mark already this season. My main concern at this point is how to pronounce his name when I’m cheering him home!
This isn’t one of the live races on ITV which means I don’t have an early market to guide me at time of writing. In these circumstances I have three questions running through my head…
What price would I back him at?
What price do I think he’ll be?
What price might he be?
There is an important differentiation between the last two questions. Mistakes are often made in the early markets and given the field size, the fact there are five last time out winners in opposition and also because he was beaten far enough last time when sent off 6/1, I wouldn’t be entirely shocked if you could get 16/1 when the markets open. But in terms of what price I think he will be, if the odds compilers look beyond the very bare form I’d be surprised if they make him more than a 10/1 shot.
I think he’s the most likely winner and given this is a 6/1 the field type race that’s the sort of price I’ll be accepting. I’m pretty confident I’ll get better than that and the bigger he is, the bigger I’ll be betting.
I’m not suggesting anyone ‘lumps on’ but I do like this bet, as you can probably tell. At 6/1 I’d probably be looking at a small to medium bet, at 10/1 or so he’d be a medium to large bet and if he’s more like 14/1 or 16/1 I’ll be backing him fairly strongly with the view that I’m getting a tremendous amount of value.
I wrote all that about the price and then William Hill put up an early 14/1. If that is echoed elsewhere I’ll be very happy.
My main worry for a horse like this is he reverts to whatever his issue was for the second half of last season but the fact he still looked good on his second run this season is very reassuring.
I’m guessing the plan will have been to get No Nay Nicki as fit as possible for this given she ran well here several times last season and she’s the one I fear most.
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