FREE Tips Friday: Sam Darby’s Flat Preview

RTP Summer Syndicate: We still have a few spaces left in our exciting young summer jumper with Dr Richard Newland. CLICK HERE TO FIND OUT MORE >>>

*

You can find Sam Darby’s detailed preview down below. He managed to land on a 6/1 winner last Saturday, which was much deserved given the effort he puts in. Class is permanent and all that!

Sam has also added a Results Sheet for his service, which you can find at the bottom of the post.

For now, over to Sam, for another cracking read…

*

Likely Strong Gallop Could See Dream Hit All The Right Notes

Finally, a winner! Isla Kai did exactly what he’s been promising to do by pretty much making all at Ripon. He was available at around 8/1 and 7/1 early and despite shortening to a general 7/2 and 9/2 on Friday evening/Saturday morning he went off a very generous 6/1 SP. He won pretty cosily in the end, having enjoyed the run of the race, and he’ll find life much tougher next time out.

Poet’s Dawn was the other selection in the race and I was very surprised to see him available at 20/1 early and even more surprised to see him go off at 25s. It was a very rare poor run at Ripon for him and I’m not sure why. He can win again going right handed on softish ground when his trainer’s string are running a bit more consistently.

Of those mentioned as likely future bets:

Scottish Summit once again caught the eye with how he traveled but he once again found less than expected (finished 3rd), which is a common theme with this horse. A well run 7f at Newcastle will be perfect for him.

Another Batt missed the break and did brilliantly to stay on into 4th. He should be better back at 7f but soft ground is important to him so he should only be backed when getting his ground.

Makeen did exactly as expected by running well for 75% of the race. Better ground and probably a trip to Carlisle beckons for him.

Garden Oasis also went well for plenty of the race but this just wasn’t his ground. He’ll be back to Ripon on faster ground soon and will take plenty of beating.

Give It Some Teddy just couldn’t pick up from the back and ran below par, but he saves his very best for Redcar these days. He’s just a bit difficult to catch right as he needs a very well run race to be seen to best effect.

Ground The Key With Choice Of Race

On to this week, and we’re back to covering Friday’s racing with better cards on offer now. I was tempted to look at the 3pm at Newmarket but depending on when the rain arrives there, that race could be run on good ground or it could be run on soft. Goodwood should be easier to predict as they’ll likely be on good to soft on Friday morning with some rain forecast so it will either be good to soft or soft come race time.

The 2.35 is a nice little sprint handicap and it’s live on ITV which means plenty of early prices to go off.

There is one thing that really stands out about this race and that’s the likely pace. There are only 8 runners in this but it looks like Prop Forward, Clarendon House, Reigning Profit and maybe even Angle Land are all going to want a piece of the early lead, which may end up setting this up for the more patiently ridden horses and/or those that stay 6f.

Given there are only 8 runners it’s probably easier to go through the field one by one.

Prop Forward

This lightly raced 5yo put in an impressive display at Kempton on reappearance when making all to win last time out over a furlong further. He hadn’t been a habitual front runner before that but it worked so well that connections might want to try to repeat those tactics here. He did very much get the run of the race that day though and was beaten in a handicap on his penultimate run so there does have to be a slight question mark about him overcoming a 4lb higher mark, even if he’s still got room for further improvement.

Another question mark is the surface. He is proven on turf, and softish turf at that. He finished 2nd and 1st in maidens in 2021 but he did flop on his only turf handicap start (off a 15lb lower mark) and all his subsequent improvement has come on artificial surfaces so there are enough question marks to oppose him, for all he has a chance if translating that all weather improvement to turf.

Clarendon House

Runner up in this last year, only beaten by the progressive Raasel who would go on to rate 15lbs higher. Clarendon House is just 3lbs higher this time around. He was highly tried last season (largely ran in group races) which seemed to expose his limitations and it’s questionable how much rain he’d want given his best form seems to have come on fast ground. It’s also worth noting that plenty of Robert Cowell’s string have come on for the run this season and he could get caught up in a speed battle early so there are enough reasons to look elsewhere.

Whenthedealinsdone

Five furlong specialist who enjoys softer ground and has won here at Goodwood off a 5lbs lower mark. He dropped to a nice mark last season before winning a soft ground Ascot handicap where he was the only one with any form on soft ground. His rivals underperforming meant the horse went up 10lbs for a 3 length win and that hike pretty much killed the rest of his season.

He’s dropped from 100 to 98 which probably isn’t enough and it’s worth noting that he was 3 lengths behind Dream Composer at Ascot late last season giving him 13lbs. He’s 8lbs better off here which should get him pretty close to reversing that form but he does concede race fitness and many of Roger Teal’s runners have improved for a run.

Came From The Dark

Formerly smart 5f specialist who is another at home in these conditions. The 7yo has had enough chances now in favourable conditions to show his old spark but he’s clearly not as good as he was and his handicap mark arguably has him pegged.

He did run well enough on seasonal debut at Musselburgh when 3rd in the Scottish Sprint Cup but he was well drawn that day and the form has worked out poorly so far. Ed Walker’s runners have been a bit below par first time out, but they are still largely a bit below par anyway at the minute. There is no reason to think he’ll run badly but others are more progressive.

With his trainer not yet hitting full stride it’s likely his handicap mark will drop a bit further yet and once Ed Walker’s form does improve he’ll probably be worth backing in softish conditions.

Dubai Station

Won at Wolverhampton in March but has been below that form in two runs since at Kempton. Maybe he just doesn’t like Kempton (he hadn’t previously run there) but it hardly inspires confidence.

He’s only won once on turf and that was a maiden win but he’s run well on a variety of ground and is 10lbs better off with Whenthedealinsdone from a 3.25 length defeat last September in similar ground so he has a slight claim on that form. He’s probably best avoided here though in his current mood.

Dream Composer

I’ve spent the past few years following this horse and thinking he was better at 6f. That’s maybe because of his closing run style though and given three of his last four wins have come at the minimum distance, I’m now revising that opinion.

He’s perfectly at home with plenty of dig in the ground and he’s finished 1st once and 2nd twice from four runs here, the other coming on fast ground. If you were being critical you could point to him probably being better with a stiffer finish over 5f (wins have been at Pontefract, Ascot and Newmarket) and he was ‘only’ 2nd over this course and distance in September off a 7lb lower mark so does need to have improved. He does look like he’s still improving though and a likely strong pace could make this a stiffer test than usual around here. Also his latest win at Newmarket has worked out pretty well with the 3rd coming out and winning at Epsom.

Angle Land

She was in good form in March on the all weather but hasn’t translated that form back to turf with two uninspiring runs on softish ground. She has won on soft turf before but that was only a Windsor maiden and on the balance of form she looks better on artificial surfaces. She certainly needs to find improvement from somewhere to land this and the odds reflect that.

Reigning Profit

Ruth Carr’s 4yo has done the opposite of Angle Land and has improved dramatically for going back onto turf this Spring with two comfortable wins at Pontefract.

He went close to shedding his maiden tag in September last year but only really started improving with the fitting of headgear. The visor seemed to do the trick when he won easily at Wolverhampton but he wasn’t in the same form on his next three all weather runs.

Two trips to Pontefract since have yielded two comfortable wins but it is worth noting that he was well drawn and got the run of the race on both of those occasions. He’s also going from class 5 races to a class 2 handicap here and after winning on Wednesday, a win that saw his price for this race collapse, he looks a fairly poor price now for all he’s clearly progressing.

His handicap mark for this race does require a bit of explanation. He carries a 5lb penalty for his first win at Pontefract and since his latest win came in an apprentices’ race, he’s unpenalised for that one. However, because he’s so lowly rated he’s 3lbs out of the handicap so he’s effectively 3lbs higher than his latest win on Wednesday.

Final Verdict

The bookies don’t seem to have made too many mistakes with pricing up these handicaps on Friday and this race is no exception. I’ll therefore be keeping stakes pretty small on this one as I don’t think there is a huge amount of value.

My main angle into this is that it will be a very well run race which will help set up for the closers. It’s possible that Reigning Profit could become a non runner given he has raced within 48 hours of this contest and that would not only mean a big rule 4 deduction but it would also mean less of a contested pace so it would really kill this as a betting contest and it would be a race best avoided.

But assuming they all stand their ground then the one I’m most keen on is DREAM COMPOSER. How much he still has in hand of the handicapper is open to debate but he’s as good as ever, likes the ground, goes well here at Goodwood, should enjoy a strong pace to aim at and he’s only up 2lbs for his latest win which has already been franked. I’d rather this race was being run at a course with a stiffer finish but you can’t always get everything in your favour.

I’m really not sure what the main danger is. Came From The Dark is perhaps most solid in that he’s already run okay this season. If Whenthedealinsdone is fit enough first time out he could be next best but out of the whole field Dream Composer and Came From The Dark are the only two I think are guaranteed to at least run their race.

Dream Composer has the more progressive profile of the two, and his trainer is in better form, so he’s the selection. The 7/2 and 100/30 on offer is a fair reflection of his chances, if not particularly generous.

*

Don’t Miss A Bet – Profit Guarantee Offer

I don’t quite go into this level of detail for each race I tip in with my professional service but my write ups are a very similar flavour with a deep level of analysis. If you are interested in receiving my tips on a more regular basis during the flat season you can CLICK HERE TO REGISTER. If my tips don’t make a profit at advised prices in your first month (31 days) with the service you can just email admin@surewin.co.uk and they’ll give you your 2nd month completely free.

Check out my full results history on SureWin, bet by bet, by clicking here. Note that these results can sometimes run a couple of weeks behind present day.

Please note that these articles are written shortly after final declarations so any prices, whilst available at time of writing, are subject to plenty of fluctuation. There will hopefully always be value in the content and some of the shortlisted horses even if the main selection has shortened considerably.

*