Free Guest Post: The ‘Friday’ Flat Preview

No flat races caught Sam’s eye on Friday’s racing, so instead he’s had a look ahead to today…

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Two Against The Field In Competitive Ripon Handicap

Amazingly I completed the hat trick last week. All three of my selections in this column have now finished last and been completely tailed off.

This is why tipsters should always include a write up with their selections. In two of the three weeks that I’ve written this column, I’ve given a really good mention to the winners (10/1 and 16/1 SPs) so hopefully the content has been worth reading, even if the selections haven’t been worth backing. ‘Mentions’ don’t pay the bills of course!

Picking Up Some Form

Fortunately the tips I provide on a daily basis to my members have performed better this month, particularly over the past couple of weeks. I’m pretty selective but have had winners at 9/1, 13/2 and 10/1 that have now given me an ROI of over 40% so far in April. It’s seemingly just Friday’s I’m struggling with for now.

How Things Went Last Week

With last week’s race at Newbury, I’m at a loss to explain Gisburn’s lack of consistency. He’s run really well at Newbury twice, he’s run really well on soft ground several times, he’s won on soft ground at Newbury before, but he’s run terribly on his last two trips there on soft ground. I’ll give him one more chance away from Newbury but his losing streak is concerning me now.

I was so keen to back Bernardo O’Reilly on good to soft but so much less keen on soft. It might seem like there isn’t much between those ground types but he had such a distinctive record on good to soft versus soft or worse that I had to follow the form book. In the end he won at 16/1 so it was one that got away. I still think he’s a better and/or more consistent horse on good to soft for what it’s worth!

Crazy Luck was another I gave a strong mention to and he was the big gamble of the day. When I wrote my preview, only William Hill had priced up, and they had both Crazy Luck and Gisburn as 8/1 joint second favourites. However at 6pm the evening before, when everyone had priced up, Gisburn was 9/2 and Crazy Luck was 18/1. At that point I ended up having a bigger bet on Crazy Luck despite Gisburn being my early selection.

Unfortunately, in the race itself, something seemed to go wrong as whilst in contention and going well, Oisin Murphy barely moved a muscle on the horse and let him coast home. I was sure the stewards would look into the riding of that horse and Murphy would say the horse was lame but surprisingly nothing was said. This horse will win next time on good or softer ground on a flat track in the right company, I’m confident of that.

A Day Late – Ripon Supplies The Best Betting Contest

On to this week now. Friday’s racing made no appeal to me this week so instead I’m going to look at one of the handicaps for older horses on Saturday, specifically the 5.15 at Ripon. I’m not in love with the racing this Saturday and I’ll be keeping stakes relatively low.

Given I often write these previews before there’s even a market for the race, it helps to pick a competitive looking 13 runner handicap as I’m unlikely to pick something out and then find that it’s been priced up at 7/4.

With this being Ripon, I’m going to massively mark up any pace horses and massively mark down those that will be held up. Front runners/prominent racers have an almost three times better strike rate over this course and distance than those that race in mid division or are held up.

One thing I also wanted to check was the draw. I had some bets at the recent meeting here and before the mile handicap on that card the person in the Sky Sports Racing studio, I think it was Seb Sanders, seemed to be referring to the higher drawn horses as the best drawn. It does seem that, for whatever reason, middle to high draws have a better record than low draws on fast ground. However it’s going to be soft here and on softer ground low draws perform far better than middle and high. In fact, in this sort of ground and field size, the lowest 5 drawn horses have won 10 races from 75 runners, which is a 13.33% strike rate. The remaining 141 runners (almost twice as many runners) have provided just 5 winners, which is a strike rate of just 3.55%.

That draw bias does come with an important footnote though. In that same sample of races where the lowest five stalls performed so much better than their higher drawn counterparts, front runners from the middle and high stalls both had a better place strike rate than front runners from low stalls, or any other draw/run style combination. So I’d effectively count higher drawn front runners as being ‘low drawn’, as in they have just as much of an advantage.

I think there are quite a few interesting contenders in this race, many for the future rather than this race in particular, so I’m going to go through them all in racecard order.

Isla Kai

This is a horse I’ve been monitoring for some time. Despite enjoying four wins on soft and good to soft early on in his career, he then raced on ground no softer than good in nine consecutive races, all of which he failed to win (did place a few times and generally ran with credit). I thought he’d be interesting on good to soft ground on his final run of last season at York and he ran a decent 3rd at 15/2 but was soundly beaten by two more progressive rivals.

He’s only run once this season, when sent off 9/2 favourite for the Lincoln consolation race, and he ended up beaten 40 lengths. That doesn’t tell the full story though as he stayed on the far side rail that day and was at a huge disadvantage. One of those that raced that side did pass him and then switch to the near side but he still beat the few others that stayed far side so he effectively finished 2nd of 5 which gives that run a little more context. It’s also worth noting that Nigel Tinkler’s horses have generally been below par first time out and have often come on for the run so there is every chance we see an improved showing here.

He’s drawn 12 here but is likely to try to make the running which will be advantageous. It’s also worth noting he drops into a class 3 handicap for the first time since the summer of 2021 and he’s 3 from 3 in handicaps in this grade and all those wins came with cut in the ground. He’s back down to his last winning mark and he looks set to run very well, for all you have to forgive that last run. He is often overbet though so it’s all going to come down to price.

Scottish Summit

Another one I’m monitoring. He’s a 10yo now so I’ll tread carefully with him but he’s back down to his last winning mark from 11 months ago and he caught the eye with how he traveled last time out at Newcastle, held up off a steady gallop. He’s placed in 4 out of 6 runs here but all of those places have been over further (he’s fine at this trip but ran a bit below par on his only course and distance effort). I think he’s probably a bit better on a straight course these days and if he’s held up here, as he often is, he’ll find himself poorly placed. Plenty in his favour but I think he’ll turn up at Newcastle again soon and maybe win then.

Darkness

I think this horse is better on softish ground and probably better over a mile than 7f so this ground and trip combination could unlock further improvement. He was well drawn when 2nd last time out at Redcar but ran creditably considering he was held up and the front runner made all. He’s well handicapped now and will pop up in a race like this but I’d be reluctant to back anything that is as patiently ridden as he is, especially as he could get locked in on the rail.

Another Batt

I’ve followed this guy for years and tipped him up for his last win in October 2021. He wasn’t the most consistent last season but ran decent 3rds a couple of times off 7lbs and 8lbs higher and his reappearance run behind Darkness was promising given the stable’s runners have been coming on for the run. He can race handily which would suit here but he’s never really looked to stay a mile and is best over 7f so I’m happy to oppose him this time. Worth looking out for over 7f with some cut in the ground soon.

Blenheim Boy

Appeals on some formlines, not least his 6 length course and distance win in soft ground a year ago on seasonal debut. He wasn’t as good here on good ground in August and although he then ran a promising race at Ayr, which again would give him a chance, he disappointed on heavy ground on his final start last year. There is no obvious pattern to his good/poor runs so he could be worth a small saver if a massive price for this but he could just as easily run terribly as well. Drawn in stall 13 but can race prominently which might help negate that.

Diamondonthehill

Seasonal debutant who hit form last August. He’s looked better on fast ground though and this test doesn’t seem likely to suit on all known form. Readily opposed.

Makeen

I followed this one last season and still think he’s feasibly handicapped off a 7lb higher mark than he won off last season as he did place in a competitive race off a 1lb higher mark. I’m still not sure if he’s better over a mile or 7f but I do think he’s better on decent ground, for all he has a win on good to soft (floundered somewhat in soft ground last season when handicapped to win). He should be fine first time out but I’d be concerned about a mile on soft ground suiting so I’ll overlook him on this occasion but I expect him to run well for at least 75% of this and I’ll be watching him with next time out in mind.

Shigar

Lightly raced and trained by William Haggas, I’m hopeful this one will help make the market. I’m not totally against this horse in general as he won a fair Lingfield novice race over 7f last season and through the runner up he looks fairly handicapped, with possible improvement to come. He was a good 2nd on handicap debut when bleeding from the nose, the winner and 3rd both finished runners up next time out in handicaps giving that form a solid feel. Adam Farragher claims 2lb less than he did for that run and the horse is up 2lbs so he’s effectively 4lbs higher and crucially seems likely to be held up from stall 11 which is the biggest reason to oppose him. I see no reason why he won’t progress and win at least a race or two soon but course biases will hopefully play against him here.

Perseverants

His heavy ground 2nd at Doncaster hasn’t really worked out and he ran poorly behind Darkness and Another Batt at Redcar on testing ground. He doesn’t look especially well handicapped and has enough to prove.

Garden Oasis

Another I’ve followed in the past and a bit of a course specialist with 4 wins and several placed efforts here. Did finish 2nd on soft in 2021 but his best form is certainly on fast ground and Tim Easterby hasn’t had a first time out winner from his last 50 runners. He’s 2lbs lower than his last winning mark in August and will likely be winning again here this summer but unlikely in this race. Could help make the running though from stall 5 which is an important factor.

Oh Herberts Reign

Regressive and without a win in his last 16 starts. Better than the bare result last time out at Windsor and will handle conditions but overall profile suggests he’s one to avoid, certainly for win purposes. He could still end up beating at least half the field but he’s not a betting proposition.

Poet’s Dawn

An exposed 8yo but ran well here last week on seasonal debut over a trip that stretches him (poor record over 10f anywhere else other than Ripon) and that run will surely have pleased connections given the aforementioned record of Tim Easterby’s horses first time out.

He looks sure to come on for that run and given he’s never run a bad race in 8 efforts here, he likes softer ground, tends to race prominently and is well enough drawn in stall 6 he has plenty going for him here. His record going right handed is much stronger than going left handed so he should always be noted at courses like this and Beverley where he has done so well – he’s placed in an impressive 11 of 18 runs over a mile at right handed courses.

Give It Some Teddy

Yet another one that I’ll be keen on soon. He too was one of the very few Tim Easterby horses to run well first time out this season, this time when 4th (poorly placed earlier) at Redcar a couple of weeks ago. He is a bit of a Redcar specialist though with 6 of his 9 wins coming at that venue but he is a course winner here. That win came when he was capable of racing prominently though and given he tends to be ridden far more patiently these days you’d have to worry about his ability to come from behind at this venue, especially with traffic problems likely from stall 3.

Final Verdict

I’m probably looking to back around half this field on one of their next few runs but several of those I’m monitoring make next to no appeal here.

It wouldn’t be a total shock if Blenheim Boy put his best foot forward here but he’s just too inconsistent to consider seriously.

I can see, granted luck in running, Darkness and Give It Some Teddy doing best of those that will be coming out of the pack but given how the course favours those up with the pace I’m not convinced either of those will necessarily even reach the places with other runners enjoying the run of the race to a much larger extent.

I can see them going no more than an even gallop here. Isla Kai and Garden Oasis will likely contest the early lead but Garden Oasis still only led early in 4 of his 13 starts last season and connections might even see it more beneficial to his handicap mark going forward to hold him up here, which could hand Isla Kai a complete freebie up front. Poet’s Dawn is unlikely to be too far away and his early position should allow him to get involved.

I do think both Isla Kai and Poet’s Dawn have an excellent chance of finishing in the places and I wouldn’t be totally shocked if they filled the first two places because of the various course biases, so I will be covering the reverse forecast.

I’m really intrigued to see how the betting opens for this one. Only two of these, Darkness and Shigar, managed to even finish in the first 3 last time out. I’d therefore imagine that pair will head the betting, probably with Shigar as the clear favourite given his profile and trainer. Poet’s Dawn is clearly solid so I doubt many chances will be taken with his price but Isla Kai is interesting – there is definite potential for him to be a bit of a silly price very early based on his latest run but his class 2 form from last season is there for all to see and he’ll surely shorten very quickly.

In terms of singles I’ll be looking to back ISLA KAI and POET’S DAWN each way at about 11/2 or bigger. If they both meet that requirement I’ll happily back both, if somehow neither of them are that big (unlikely) I’ll just leave it with the reverse forecast, which I’ll be having regardless of the prices.

In terms of horses to follow in the near future, I’m looking at Scottish Summit (probably at Newcastle), Another Batt at 7f on softish ground, Makeen on good or better ground, Garden Oasis on good or better ground back here at Ripon and Give It Some Teddy if/when he gets a decent pace and a low draw on softish ground at Redcar. Feel free to add those to your trackers!

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Please note that these articles are written shortly after final declarations so any prices, whilst available at time of writing, are subject to plenty of fluctuation. There will hopefully always be value in the content and some of the shortlisted horses even if the main selection has shortened considerably.

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