Heavy Ground A Concern So Price Is Key At Leicester
Mixed feelings towards last week’s race, the 6f handicap at Lingfield. I spent the whole article saying how important it was going to be getting a good early position and I couldn’t have been more correct. However my selection, Laheg, was very weak in the betting, sluggish in the early part of the race and then pretty much pulled up in the straight with the jockey looking down. This sort of thing happens with horses but it’s very frustrating when the market seems to know it’s going to happen before the race.
In the end it was Emperor Spirit, who was given a favourable mention, who made all and won at 10/1 whilst Rattling, who I said might be a nice price to finish in the top 4, finished 4th at an SP of 22/1. Evidence hopefully that I’m not completely clueless!
This Friday it has to be said that the flat action is pretty underwhelming. Of course it’s the day before the Grand National and most of the interest will be at Aintree but considering we are supposedly two weeks into the flat season, this week’s action on the level has been absolutely dreadful. Fortunately better meetings await next week.
So this Friday’s race of interest is the 3.10 at Leicester, which is a 7f class 4 handicap. It’s a slightly underwhelming turnout with just 6 entries but that’s probably no surprise given the ground is likely to be heavy.
The one I’ve been waiting to back for a good few weeks now is Dashing Dick. He’s a tremendously consistent horse, which unfortunately means he gets no slack from the handicapper, but he’s managed to get back into the race he won last year from the exact same mark so there can be no arguments that he’s not well enough handicapped to win.
He has been beaten off this sort of mark 5 times on the all weather over the winter but the first of those defeats came as an out of form 28/1 chance and since then he’s finished 2nd, 2nd, 4th, 3rd and 4th over a mile which is a trip that has probably been stretching him a little.
The main reason I’m following him is his most recent 4th at Lingfield, beaten 2 lengths. He was well placed throughout and appeared to have no excuses but time has shown that to be a seriously good race with the 1st, 2nd, (dead heat) 4th, 6th and 7th all winning since. Then you look at his penultimate run, where he was a close 3rd at Southwell over a mile, he only lost the race in the final half furlong and the 2nd, 4th and 5th have all come out of that race since and won. This is the exact sort of subsequent form I’m looking for in a runner.
The drop back to 7f here should be in his favour, as should forcing tactics over a course and distance that suits front runners. The big question mark though is the ground. He’s only run in two handicaps on good to soft ground and he’s finished 2nd and 1st in those so softish ground is clearly fine. His only run on soft came in a maiden and he was 3rd, beaten 4 lengths by Aldaary who has since rated 116 so he probably ran at least to form that day too. Heavy going is a different kettle of fish though and has to be at least a slight concern.
Gorak is likely to help make the market. He won easily at the Lincoln meeting when there were plenty of wide margin winners on that desperate ground and although 5lbs well in under a penalty, he failed to run to that level again at Redcar on Monday when 7th of 14. He’ll be carrying another 5lbs next time out so I guess it’s worth chucking him in again but he was perhaps flattered by his Doncaster win and will need to improve for the return to heavy ground (was soft at Redcar).
Ascot Adventure was 5th, 7.75 lengths behind Gorak at Doncaster and he’ll be racing off a 2lb lower mark in the future (so 2lbs badly in here). It was a surprise to see a horse, often held up last season, trying to make the running on his first run for David O’Meara that day and he should improve for reverting back to more patient tactics in the future. He’s already 3lbs lower than his last win and will be 5lbs lower next time and his turn is clearly nearing but I’ve never been convinced he wants the ground bottomless as he’s been well beaten in both runs on heavy. My hope is he bombs out again here so he can be a price on good to soft ground next time out.
That leaves just Soar Above, who has been well beaten in 4 runs on softish ground and is better on the all weather, Amber Island who you’d also have very similar doubts about, and then there is Tylos. He’s lightly raced but appears to have nothing in hand of the assessor and all his turf form is on fast ground. His main purpose is probably going to be to pester Dashing Dick on the lead unless he suddenly improves for much softer ground
Final Verdict
I’m in a bit of a conundrum about the ground. On heavyish ground, Dashing Dick’s only real rival appears to be Gorak who ran below expectations last time out. However we don’t know how Dashing Dick is going to perform in conditions. I’d be much more confident of Dashing Dick running his race on good to soft.
It’s all going to come down to price, and as I write these previews early I don’t even have those useless William Hill prices to guide me as they seem to have tightened up their early price offerings. I’d imagine the early prices will be around 5/2 for Dashing Dick and that might be just about acceptable for a small bet. Gorak or Tylos might help Dashing Dick’s price and the bigger he is, the more of a bet I’ll have. Should Dashing Dick be 9/4 or shorter I think I’d be struggling to have a bet on the race given the ground concerns. I’d expect Tylos to drift from the early prices and Gorak to be fairly solid whilst Ascot Adventure could shorten a bit with that first run under his belt.
The good thing about backing Dashing Dick here is he’s clearly ready to strike and if he doesn’t handle the heavy ground this time he’ll probably be a bigger price on better ground next time so would rate a good bet to recover any losses at that point.
There should be better racing on hopefully better ground next Friday to preview!
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Please note that these articles are written shortly after final declarations so any prices, whilst available at time of writing, are subject to plenty of fluctuation. There will hopefully always be value in the content and some of the shortlisted horses even if the main selection has shortened considerably.