[New Guest Post] The FLAT is Back! Friday Preview

Introduction

Hello, Josh here… I’ll think of a catchier name for this new guest post series, but what follows are some thoughts on Friday’s flat action, from Sam Derby. Some of you may know of him already. In the past he’s produced bits and pieces for ‘Geegeez Matt’, but mainly works for the Surewin platform, as well as running his own successful tipping service. I’ve met him a couple of times, he’s a top guy and he knows his stuff. I also like how he writes and conveys his thoughts. I usually learn something.

This new guest post will go up every Thursday evening at 8pm. At the end of each post you’ll find a gentle nudge (including a link) to Sam’s tipping service, which for those of you who take your betting more seriously, is certainly worth checking out. However, the main purpose is to offer useful and engaging free content, that may help you land on the odd winner this season.

For now, I’ll pass over to Sam…

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Back The Most Solid Runner At Lingfield On Good Friday

Hi! My name is Sam Darby and I’m going to be writing a weekly column for Racing To Profit, covering Friday’s racing. I’m a flat racing specialist, I’ve worked in the horse racing and betting industry my entire life and I’ve been operating a professional tipping service since 2019.

Some of you may have met me at the Racing To Profit get together at Sandown in February of last year where I failed to back a winner, but did end up catching Covid so I guess I got something from the day. Ironically as I write my first Racing To Profit column I’m once again full of Covid so hopefully it won’t affect my judgment too much!

What To Expect From This Column

Each week I’ll not only be looking to highlight some horses I expect to run well at what I think are backable prices, but I’ll also try to be as transparent as possible about my methods and thought processes.

How I Pack My Tracker With Well Handicapped Horses

As the season progresses, the main thing I like to do is to build up my tracker with horses who have proven themselves to be well handicapped through ‘hot form’. This is effectively where several horses are coming out of a race and running significantly better than their previous finishing position. So if the 1st, 2nd and 4th come out of a handicap and win again next time out, I’m very interested in following the 3rd next time, and maybe even the 5th, 6th, etc depending on their proximity to those that have come out and run well.

Narrowing Down The Fields

Then when it comes to analysing future races I’m basically looking for horses to tick as many boxes as possible, so I want the best handicapped runner in the given conditions. The second half of that sentence can be a bit overlooked sometimes. I’m willing to back something I think is less well handicapped than something else if it has more factors in its favour than something that is maybe a bit better handicapped.

It’s not just the very obvious factors, like distance and going, but I also place huge importance on likely race position (dictated by run style, draw, field size and the pace in the race) and also how course characteristics place those early race positions at an advantage or disadvantage. I know that Josh has highlighted these factors many times before so I’m sure you’ll understand the importance of predicting all those elements.

Good Friday’s Most Interesting Betting Heat

So on to Friday…

Lingfield’s All Weather Vase day handicaps have attracted 93 runners whereas Newcastle’s All Weather Finals day has only managed 60 entries so unsurprisingly it’s the Surrey venue that will be attracting more of a betting interest and there is one race in particular I want to go through, as I’m strongly against the majority of those near the head of the betting.

The race of interest is the All Weather Vase Sprint which is a 6f handicap run at 3.15pm. I quite like this course and distance as you can normally chuck a few out based on draw and run style. Those drawn very high (9+) need to be very well handicapped to win and those that like to be held up need either a very strong pace (which is a rare occurrence) or they need to be one of those Lingfield specialists that has a serious turn of foot. Anything that likes to be held up that is also drawn high is one of the first to put a line through, like last year’s 100/30 favourite for this race, Tommy De Vito, who finished 9th of 11.

The winner of that race last year made all from stall 4 and the runner up chased the pace from stall 7 and that is no rare occurrence here, it’s a clear advantage to race prominently in most 6f races here, preferably from a lowish draw. Emperor Spirit looks the only real pace in this contest and it will almost certainly be run at a fairly sedate gallop which will inconvenience those ridden patiently.

Immediately I’m willing to sacrifice quite how well handicapped I need a runner to be, upgrading it’s likely performance if they race prominently and preferably have a bit of tactical speed in a finish too. A lowish draw is going to help a runner get the desired position without racing too wide which would be another positive.

The obvious starting point is Emperor Spirit, who will almost certainly get an easy lead from stall 1. He’s a big price because he ran poorly on his first start for Robert Cowell in February when already race fit from his time with Archie Watson. Something that’s probably going to be overlooked though is that he didn’t wear any headgear on that stable debut having raced in either cheekpieces or blinkers on his previous nine visits to a racecourse. He’d run plenty well enough in the past without headgear but on his first try in cheekpieces he was a head 2nd off a 5lb higher mark and in his first run in blinkers he was only beaten 2 lengths over this course and distance from stall 11 off a 4lb higher mark. The plan is almost certainly that the return of cheekpieces is going to sharpen him up and he’ll make all. He has the form to win this and ticks many other boxes but he’s not quite consistent enough for me and I can see him being passed by a couple late on, for all he’s overpriced at around 10/1 general.

A far more likely winner is going to be Laheg who has a more likeable profile overall. At 6f on fast ground he’s finished 1st and 2nd. At the same trip on the all weather his form figures read 1713. Not quite as impressive but that 7th place is easily forgiven considering the horse was gelded after and immediately turned in a career best next time whilst that 3rd came over this course and distance in a class 3 handicap where he was only beaten a neck. You could argue that his most recent runs haven’t worked out brilliantly but he’s only 8lbs higher than his first handicap win where the 3rd won his next three starts and the 7th won on his next course and distance run. Most of the others that ran well in that race haven’t run since so that was probably very hot form.

Crucially though this horse should track the early speed from stall 6 and his 3rd here a month ago came in a race that promises to be very similar to this. Laheg looks like he’d probably benefit from a drop in trip but this speed test will be fine for him and if he runs to the same level as last time out he should go very close. He’s still lightly raced and that was his first run in almost 10 weeks so he might even improve and strip fitter here.

At about 9/2 the dilemma is win or each way. Many punters won’t bet each way if they’ll lose money if the horse places but if you bet win only and the horse finishes 2nd you’ve lost as well. Many bookies are paying 4th and he’d be a fair bet to place at just under evens so I’m leaning towards going each way. I think only running below par (which we can’t predict) or missing the break and not getting his early position keeps him out of the frame here.

Some of those I don’t like for this race are Adeb, who has no Lingfield form and looks likely to lack the requisite speed for this race and Shalaa Asker who is 2lbs badly in under a penalty and drawn a bit too wide in stall 9 having shown his best form at Chelmsford (beaten off lower marks in two handicap runs here). Tolstoy is unlikely to get this run to suit and is only 4lbs better off with Laheg for a 2.75 length defeat here previously, The Green Man is likely to be impossibly positioned early and Walking On Clouds, although tremendously consistent, no longer looks well enough handicapped. Having said that he does have Billy Loughnane claiming 5lbs to help but he’s often held up so will probably be poorly positioned.

Of the remainder I think Aberama Gold has to be given some consideration. He was a nose ahead of Laheg recently but is more than twice the price here thanks to a poor recent run at Wolverhampton. He’s not the most consistent but it’s worth noting that he has a much better overall record on the polytrack rather than the tapeta he ran on last time so it’s not difficult to forgive that effort and predict a better run here. Every piece of his course form gives him a shout here and he’s well berthed in stall 3 so I’d take him to outrun his odds at the very least, and probably beat the likes of Adeb who is a much shorter price. Match bet anyone?

I also can’t figure out why Rattling is such a big price. He ran wide and didn’t stay 7f last time and because of that has dropped 3lbs to a mark just 3lbs higher than when winning here on his previous start, beating The Green Man who is a shorter price in this. They compete off the same terms and The Green Man will probably have more traffic problems in this so I’d take Rattling to confirm that form. I don’t think he’s well enough in to win this but if I was able to take the 16/1 with bet365 with 4 places that would be tempting. My interest will be seeing what price I can get place only (4 places) on the Exchanges on Friday. If he was pushing 4.0 I’ll probably get involved.

Final Verdict

I don’t think those I haven’t mentioned will figure so my prediction is Laheg is the most likely winner and most likely to run well. Most of those with similar form claims seem unlikely to get anywhere near the same level of luck in running. I’d probably have Aberama Gold and Emperor Spirit next best at big prices, in that order, with Rattling also outrunning his price. Only one of my shortlist actually ran well last time out which helps add a bit of confidence that Laheg is the one to be with.

Best of luck, Sam

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Please note that these articles are written shortly after final declarations so the prices, whilst available at time of writing, are subject to plenty of fluctuation. There will hopefully always be value in the content and some of the shortlisted horses even if the main selection has shortened considerably.