Hello, thanks for stopping by this post. Below you can find my ‘trends & stats pointers’ for the two big flat handicaps from Doncaster on Saturday. I’ve then ‘applied’ the trends to form a shortlist, and flagged those horses representing trainers who’ve won the race previously in the last 14 renewals. (have they targeted it again?) The winners of these races can often be found in the trends longlist/shortlists or trainer lists, but not always of course!
Such an approach is only ever a guide and don’t let said ‘trends’ put you off a horse if you really like their chance/think they’re value. No doubt some of these stats may be broken this year. Of course, said longlists and shortlists make no attempt to assess the horse – their profile, whether suited by conditions, may improve for them, their form, are they well handicapped and so on. On this occasion, none of the ‘stalls’ stats stood out to my eyes, but an assessment of the draw, including ‘the pace’ of the race, can be useful. (or even critical?!)
Even so, this approach helped me have another decent Cheltenham Festival and helped me flag Johan in last year’s Lincoln at 33s. (many losers also of course!) Fingers crossed this approach can help you narrow down the field in Saturday’s races and other ‘Feature’ Flat handicaps through the season…
Cheers, Josh
Let’s crack on…
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THE SPRING MILE
14/272, 55p
14/14 had 0-1 runs this calendar year (2+ : 0/53, 8p)
14/14 not ridden by claiming jockeys (claim: 0/50, 6p)
13/14 top 3 at least once last 3 starts (were not: 1/74, 9p)
13/14 had 15 or fewer runs in handicaps (16+ : 1/115, 14p)
13/14 had no more than 8 places (inc wins) in career (9+ : 1/112, 13p)
13/14 had 0-6 places (inc wins) in handicaps (7+ : 1/113, 15p)
12/14 had yet to run beyond 1m2f in career (had: 2/98, 15p)
12/14 had yet to win beyond 1m in career (had: 2/99, 13p)
12/14 had yet to win in the class (1+ class win: 2/84, 11p)
11/14 aged 4 (11/111, 26p)
- 13/14 aged 4 or 5 (6+ : 1/91, 10p)
11/14 had 1-3 career wins (did not: 3/129, 18p)
10/14 winners OR was same, 1lb or 2lb lower than LTO
Trainers
- R Fahey: 2/23, 7p
- B Meehan: 2/5,3p
- X1: S Kirk, Ed Bethell, A King, E Dunlop, P Chapple-Hyam, R Varian, I Mohammed, R Teal, Sir Michael Stoute, M Dods
Trends Shortlist
Arguably not the most robust of trends races, esp the two 14/14 stats and the number of places for the 0/X number in brackets, however, applying those two alone would reduce the field to 9 and IF upholding would point to a long list of…
Baltimore Boy, Isla Kai, Arthurs Realm, Zozimus, The Gatekeeper, Dirtyoldtown, Raising Sand, Lion Tower, Clear Angel
Applying the 13/14 stats to that list would point to 12/14 (12/82 runners, 26p, +214 BFSP) and IF upholding would point to just five…
Baltimore Boy, Isla Kai, The Gatekeeper, Dirtyoldtown, Clear Angel
Those five hit the 12/14 stats also, which leaves 10/14 winners (10/37 runners, 16p)
Trainers
To have won race in period/with runners…
- Arthurs Realm
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THE LINCOLN
14/289, 56p
14/14 aged 4-6 (7+ : 0/64, 11p)
14/14 had not run in prev 90 days (1+ : 0/93, 11p)
14/14 ran 121-240 days ago (did not: 0/124, 13p)
14/14 carried 9-5 or less (exc claim) (9-6+ : 0/51,10p)
14/14 running at same class or Up 1 class from LTO (not: 0/57,12p)
14/14 had 4-10 runs in the prev 365 days (did not: 0/100, 12p)
14/14 ran in a handicap LTO (non-handicap: 0/68, 13p)
14/14 did not run in a race for 4YO+ LTO (did: 0/99,11p)
14/14 did not race at C1 level LTO (did: 0/51, 11p)
13/14 OR 6lb or lower below top rated (were not: 1/78, 15p)
13/14 had 0-1 runs in month previously (2+ : 1/102, 9p)
12/14 had 0-1 runs at Donc previously (2+ : 2/115, 17p)
12/14 had 0-3 handicap wins (4+ : 2/102, 17p)
10/14 had won at least once last 3 starts (had not: 4/170, 29p)
0/14 ran at Lingfield or Wolverhampton LTO (did: 0/84,12p)
Trainers
- C Appleby: 2/4,2p
- J Gosden: 2/8,2p
- R Fahey: 2/35, 8p
- W Haggas: 2/8,4p
- X1: D O’Meara, M Dods, M Channon, J Ryan, M Tompkins, JJ Quinn
Trends Shortlist
Generally the fewer trends that make up a trends profile the better and some of the comments for the Spring Mile may apply to these pointers, but a strict application of all 14/14 stats would point to a long list of 9, and IF upholding the winner is amongst them…
Al Mubhir, Wanees, Baradar, Atrium, Majestic, Montassib, Jimi Hendrix, Croupier, Encourageable
Applying the other pointers doesn’t help too much, so that longer list will have to do and hopefully the winner is there, just a case of landing on the right one! Ahem.
Trainers
To have won race in period/with runners…
- Al Mubhir, Montassib
- Bopedro
- Empirestateofmind
- Safe Voyage
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END.