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Below you can find the race preview I’ve sent to members of RTP Syndicate #1 (Kaleb/Proud Mari). Hopefully you may find it informative – if you have any strong views on the race/any fancies, do shout down in the comments! I thought it looked open and not many results would surprise me…
It’s great having a runner on a big Saturday at a premier course and we can’t wait..
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Hello,
Kaleb Big Race Preview: 3pm Ascot
Kaleb – from what Amy’s seen at home there is no reason not to run him tomorrow. Some horses thrive on a quick turnaround, some do not, and while he didn’t have a race at Huntingdon (and appeared to enjoy his gallop, full of energy post race), such an error may have left a mental mark and he was revved up for the day. He’s had to be let down and then revved up again, so we shall see. He could run ‘flat’ and of course he needs to remember to jump! Of course, he could thrive on racing again so quickly, we just don’t know.
Hopefully the real Kaleb shows up and he runs his race. We will learn plenty if he does. We still don’t know what damage he will do over this distance (and how much he’ll improve for the trip), every indication is that he should enjoy it and take a step forward for it. IF he runs to the level of Haydock, and Kempton, and IF he improves for the step up in trip, I’d like to think he will mix it in this race and be thereabouts in the top 4. The Haydock form is good and I think we got beat by a decent handicapper in the making at Kempton. Of course, he is a novice, and is arguably still learning his trade, but he’s shown enough to suggest this sort of environment will be just fine. Carrying 10-12 is a bonus for him also, as he’s not a strapping chasing sort.
I personally thought 20s-25/1 was a tad insulting (each-way), notwithstanding the caveats above. How he travels/jumps in the first 2-4 furlongs may tell us plenty.
To the opposition...
On paper it looks competitive enough, certainly in the sense many arrive on the back of decent runs/wins, and plenty are lightly raced handicap hurdles. In saying that, they’ve all got some sort of question. I will run through them all in racecard order…
Firstly, four trainers have won this previously and are represented here: Paul Nicholls, Dan Skelton, Dr Newland and Nicky Henderson. Maybe they’ve targeted the race again.
Samarrive – brings a touch of handicapping class to the table, on his best hurdles form – however, he’s kept that for Sandown to date (2/3) and is 0/2,0p around here, although with excuses (one race came too soon/too deep, the other a fall when chasing). The ground is fine as is the trip, and there ‘could’ still be more to come in such conditions if reverting to last season’s form. He’s been chasing the last twice, which hasn’t gone to plan, and now they revert to hurdles after 89 days off. Nicholls is using a 7lb claimer – either wanting a workable mark (this takes him back down to 1lb below his last winning mark, where he won decisively enough), to take some actual weight off, and/or to give his young conditional some experience. Given Nicholls has another runner, I live in hope he’s working back from a target race at his beloved Sandown, using this as a prep. Of course, this is a nice pot and it could all be about today. If he’s a1, and if he retains the pace for hurdling, having been trained for chasing this season, he’s a danger. (14s looks big)
Petit Tonnerre – interesting enough here if ignoring LTO. He was hampered early there, and then made an error at the 5th, before being pulled up. He never looked that happy, maybe the early interference and/or the ground was just far too deep for him. He does need to bounce back, but only the 6th run of his life. His two runs before that were solid, but suggested this mark may be tough enough. However, a chance this stiffer track works in his favour but he does need a strong pace to sit off. Interesting, but he does need more, which isn’t impossible. He has a big weight also. A repeat of his two good runs this season may put him thereabouts, although the form of those races is -so-so, Aintree now 0/29, Newbury 1/9.
Homme Public – arrives in form at least, but will his 6lb rise now do for him, possibly. He’s yet to win beyond 16f or so and has struggled at C2 previously. However, he hasn’t had many goes over 20f on ‘good’ ground, which maybe is the key to him. Arriving fit and in form will count for something, but it’s just what he does from 2 out – will he start paddingling, or storm home, I’ll lean towards the former. There could be better treated rivals in here now also. He’s solid though.
Glynn – aged 9 and the 8th run of his life, tells you everything. He’s been very hard to train but still the Henderson juggernaut perseveres, suggesting he shows plenty at home and has shown bits and pieces on course. He’s had so many gaps between runs, I’ve no idea if he can back up his latest return or will fall in a hole. He does need more but that’s not impossible given how lightly raced he is/his yard. But still, he has enough questions overall and this will tell connections more. He is the sort who could take a big stride forward from his return run, if they’ve now sorted whatever problems he’s had. Still, a big ask I think, into a race like this.
Djelo- interesting, although with Tom Scu’s shock retirement they need to find a new jockey, Charlie D up at Haydock (which may be a sign for something). There is more to come from this horse and he will appreciate the step back up in trip I think. However, his runs this season are now a combined 0/25 of those to have run since, so hardly bullet proof form. He can also be very keen, maybe why they wanted the experienced Tom on. IF he settles he could be a big danger here as I suspect this mark still underestimates him. Hopefully he runs away with his jockey down to the start and in the race, although he may have only done that at Haydock as the race came too soon after Exeter, and at Sandown he was outpaced over 16f and stayed on. Good looks ok but does he want softer? Possibly. Like many in here, a big run wou;d be no shock, but neither is a mediocre one if pulling.
Fifty Ball – that comment applies to him. He’s interesting also, because he’s 2/3 around Ascot and canny Gary Moore may have penciled this in . His return was better than it looks on paper, travelling fine behind them until turning in. That was stamina sapping ground and he stopped as if badly needing it. He’s better on decent ground and is unexposed. His form has a ‘so so’ look but he could take a big step forward. Niall H is 3/4 on him also, maybe the key. A big field is a question for him. However, he was clearly kept off for a reason so there is the odd wellbeing question and he may not take a step forward.
Irish Hill – he won the Fakenham race we were thinking about with Kaleb but it got very soft and he’d have lugged a big weight. This horse did so, but looks a brute and a future chasing type. Good ground is a question and it remains to be seen what his form is worth, up in the ratings again and class, but he hasn’t done much wrong. I think he will enjoy this wide expanse and is likely to keep going. He was out on his feet last time and has been freshened up since, Harry rides. Interesting to a point but those were C3s and he now goes up in class. He could take it in his stride, given his profile/connections. He will stay and looks uncomplicated. He’s been put in at a short enough price though.
Too Friendly – ran last Thursday at Huntingdon, doing well enough. He is a very keen horse also but maybe that run will have drummed the fizz out of him and this quick return could work wonders. Had he settled better last time, he’d have won, and he was still closing come the line, a more vigorous ride sooner may have done the job. IF he returns in that form and if he settles, he should be thereabouts. However, it’s hard to say this mark is a gift after that effort. He will paddle from 1 out if running with the same enthusiasm. Still, I could see a big run from him also if dropping his head.
Supreme Gift – fit, in form, gallops, stays – solid. The question is what he’s been achieving, having been well placed in C4 maidens/novices, only with so-so form. He now steps into a decent enough C2 handicap – is 125 workable? Maybe. He wasn’t stopping at Catterick and evidently more to come, that could well be here, but he does need to step forward again. A record of 3/4 over hurdles isn’t to be sniffed at though but this will tell his connections more. The fact they’ve skipped C3s is interesting, as he is big enough to carry weight. No forlorn hope but equally, this could all be too much. We shall see.
Thibault – he’s 10 now and looks a shade regressive but is well handicapped as a result and has bits and pieces of form that, if running to his very best, could maybe see him nick a place. However, I’d like to think younger legs will have him here, even with conditions being no problem. He’s 5/21 in handicap hurdles, x4 wins over this sort of trip/further and has placed around here. He is 0/8 above C3 but has placed a few times at C2+ level. I thought this would really have to fall apart for him to mix it, but you never know.
Whizz Kid – he arrives in form but this mark could sum him up, he’s yet to win outside of novice company and all his efforts suggest that 16f is as far as he wants to go and 20f or so around this stiff track may be too far for him. He’s now 0/8,2p above C4, but does have course experience. With only 10 career runs I can’t say with confidence he won’t stay, this only his 3rd run over 2m4f+, but at Aintree he shaped like a non stayer. Again, this will tell everyone more, but I suspect stronger stayers in this line up. Newland has won this race x3 though so knows what it takes and maybe he’ll now take a step forward in conditions. Fit, in form, will run his race- what will he do from 2 out, that’s the question. This mark may sum him up also, hard to place.
Zoffany Bay – an Irish lurker, first run in 700 days, at his best this mark of 122 would be very workable indeed, on his French form. He was winning some decent French races when last seen in March 21. Who knows what to expect? The odds compilers didn’t take a chance, putting him in at 5s, which looked rather short. He could be the best handicapped horse in the race but is now 9 and it’s a tough enough race in which to make a return. But maybe he’ll breeze around and hack home. The fact they’ve travelled over is interesting but a chance a few of his owners are UK based. Those French wins came in heavy but his previous UK form was on a decent surface. Who knows what to expect, maybe the market will guide and we’ll have a look at him pre race.
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So, a fascinating race – it has an open feel to it to my eyes, and while competitive in that sense, there’s nothing in here I’m scared of as such and 9/2 the field tells you how open it could be. There is no graded horse in a handicap here (not to my eyes anyway), I don’t think anything with stacks in hand as such, on paper anyway. Nothing in here winning would be a total shock, as you could look back and make a case, but everything has some sort of question to answer whether conditions, ground, distance, well being, handicap mark, class, etc.
It’s so open to me, even suggesting a shortlist of 3 looks tough! Maybe it’s a case of siding with Paul Nicholls, Samarrive looks big at 14s, IF he’s here to run his race (market may guide). Irish Hill probably isn’t overpriced but I can see why put in as fav. Too Friendly does interest me also at 8s+. (but maybe because I backed him at Hunt!). Open.
Pace – usually in races like this they go a gallop regardless, but on paper no out and out front runners. Kaleb may be able to sit handy enough and lob along, with a clear sight of his hurdles. Irish Hill may go forward, but other than that, I’m not sure who else. A few in here want a gallop to sit off and they may not get it. Some need cover/to settle, some will be ridden to get home to stay the trip. I’ll dream of Kaleb being 3l up turing for home, or upsides Irish Hill, those two with a little break on them, and then we shall see!! 🙂
As always, my own subjective assessment which you may think is nonsense. But IF our lad runs his race (and jumps to his best), I’m excited to see what he can do here and would like to think he could be in the top 4, even more so if a few of these underperform or don’t get home as anticipated.
I’ll see 12 of you tomorrow for what promises to be an exciting day,
All the best,
Josh
07756545987 / 07501101379
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One Response
tricky race. as you say plenty seem to have chances. samarrive appears to be the classiest horse (sorry Kaleb) but if Kaleb puts his best hoof forward there is no reason to suggest that he cant run a great race.
Good luck to Amy and the crew.
Mike