Hello, firstly a Happy New Year to you all and thanks for reading.
My ‘monthly’ trainers had a slow start to this season but bounced back in December…
- Sept/Oct: -0.52 BSP (betfair exchange starting price)
- Nov: -16.45 BSP
- Dec: +13.8 BSP
Since I started researching/posting these angles more thoroughly from October 2021, they’re showing a profit of +90 points BSP, which isn’t too bad at all. Or, +£180 to fun £2 stakes.
In this post I’ve looked at three jumps trainers to keep an eye on this January. Donald McCain and Sue Smith made an appearance last season, Robert Walford a new entry.
Between them they’ve averaged around +36 points profit to BSP each January, and I’d snap your hand off for that to be repeated this year. Fingers crossed!
As always I post daily qualifiers within the Members’ posts, but they shouldn’t be too arduous to find, using your racecards of choice…
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Donald McCain
- January
- All Chases
- Class: 3, 4, 5
- Any odds (12/1 or shorter SP best, bigger: 1/14,2p, +17)
| Bets | Wins | Win% | P/L(SP) | Places | Place% | P/L(BF) | P/L(Plc) | BF A/E | |
| ALL | 95 | 30 | 31.58 | 75.59 | 44 | 46.32 | 95.01 | 17.59 | 1.9 |
| 2022 | 9 | 3 | 33.33 | 10.25 | 4 | 44.44 | 14.29 | 2.47 | 1.53 |
| 2021 | 3 | 1 | 33.33 | 23 | 2 | 66.67 | 28.38 | 8.07 | 2.7 |
| 2020 | 9 | 3 | 33.33 | 6 | 4 | 44.44 | 8.02 | 0.78 | 2.44 |
| 2019 | 9 | 1 | 11.11 | -5.75 | 3 | 33.33 | -5.55 | 0.95 | 0.7 |
| 2018 | 17 | 7 | 41.18 | 7.51 | 8 | 47.06 | 8.64 | -2.62 | 1.99 |
| 2017 | 20 | 3 | 15 | 2.5 | 10 | 50 | 5.21 | 6.59 | 1.17 |
| 2016 | 12 | 5 | 41.67 | 23.5 | 6 | 50 | 25.63 | 3.64 | 2.99 |
| 2015 | 16 | 7 | 43.75 | 8.58 | 7 | 43.75 | 10.39 | -2.29 | 2.33 |
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Sue Smith
- January
- All runners
- Horse had 3 or more runs in previous 90 days
- Any odds
| Bets | Wins | Win% | P/L(SP) | Places | Place% | P/L(BF) | P/L(Plc) | BF A/E | |
| ALL | 108 | 38 | 35.19 | 95.74 | 58 | 53.7 | 116.65 | 27.75 | 1.93 |
| 2022 | 9 | 4 | 44.44 | 14 | 5 | 55.56 | 15.52 | 4.64 | 3.03 |
| 2020 | 17 | 8 | 47.06 | 22.04 | 12 | 70.59 | 27.05 | 7.11 | 2.5 |
| 2019 | 13 | 7 | 53.85 | 40.25 | 9 | 69.23 | 48.44 | 14.36 | 3.13 |
| 2018 | 17 | 7 | 41.18 | 8.7 | 11 | 64.71 | 10.4 | 6.26 | 1.82 |
| 2017 | 15 | 4 | 26.67 | 0 | 5 | 33.33 | 0.95 | -5.86 | 1.44 |
| 2016 | 15 | 3 | 20 | 8.5 | 8 | 53.33 | 10.11 | 4.77 | 1.08 |
| 2015 | 22 | 5 | 22.73 | 2.25 | 8 | 36.36 | 4.18 | -3.52 | 1.44 |
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Robert Walford
- January
- All handicaps
- Horse had 0 or 1 career wins only
- Any odds (although 14/1 or shorter best, 0/7,0p bigger, small sample)
| Bets | Wins | Win% | P/L(SP) | Places | Place% | P/L(BF) | P/L(Plc) | BF A/E | |
| ALL | 58 | 18 | 31.03 | 62.25 | 29 | 50 | 79.9 | 22.08 | 2.28 |
| 2023 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | -1 | 0 |
| 2022 | 9 | 3 | 33.33 | 15.5 | 5 | 55.56 | 20.17 | 5.34 | 2.29 |
| 2021 | 8 | 4 | 50 | 15.25 | 4 | 50 | 19.12 | 1.43 | 3.51 |
| 2020 | 15 | 3 | 20 | 8 | 6 | 40 | 10.97 | 1.76 | 1.26 |
| 2019 | 6 | 2 | 33.33 | 10.75 | 3 | 50 | 14.72 | 3.01 | 3.28 |
| 2018 | 7 | 2 | 28.57 | 3.75 | 3 | 42.86 | 5.2 | 0.77 | 2.22 |
| 2017 | 4 | 1 | 25 | 1.5 | 2 | 50 | 1.61 | 1.23 | 1.89 |
| 2016 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 3 | 100 | -3 | 7.41 | 0 |
| 2015 | 5 | 3 | 60 | 11.5 | 3 | 60 | 12.12 | 2.13 | 4.05 |
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Good luck,
Josh
2 responses
Hi Josh , thanks for all your time and effort , so I’d to bring to your attention , that Venetian is having a different season by her usual stats suggest. So following a trainer by previous stats is tilting the odds in the bookies favour.
Simply because of the nature of running a top stable, ( or any stable small included); ie coughs,virus, fatigue etc.
Hi Anthony,
Yep – I continued my ‘November’ Venetia angle into December deliberately, which paid off – 4/9,6p, +29 BFSP (I wish I had just kept that one, the other two – one of hers and Pipes, -15 between them) – it was evident she was 2/3 weeks behind where she normally is – they don’t usually have a problem getting them fit at home but it had been so dry, I doubt she’d done much up any grass gallops (which is what really gets a horse fit), or however she likes to do things – a fair few were a gallop or three away from peak fitness. And of course plenty of hers are bred to want softer, for all she has plenty that run well with ‘good’ in the going.
You do have to try and think differently of course, the ‘Actual vs Expected’ figures above suggesting said angles continue to perform well above market expectations, thus offering value. And said stats, at least how I’ve researched them (on paper) and not on the bookies , or other punters, radar. Of course always worth looking at the form of the yard at the time and yep, trainers can change MO and you’re left red faced/staring into a black hole.
All the best
Josh