[Free] Members Daily Post: 30/11/22 (complete)

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ALL TIPS

x4 tips today between us, as of 9am, my write ups down below…

Josh’s Tips

2.15 Lud – Marettimo – 1 point win – 16/1 (gen) UP

3.07 Haydock – Up Helly Aa King – 2 point win – 5/1 (gen) 2nd 6/1

3.07 Haydock – Saint Xavier – 1 point win – 4/1 (gen) WON +4

Adam’s Tips

2.37 Haydock – Snowy Evening – 1 point each-way – 20/1 (gen) UP

This race looks far more competitive than the market suggests with sexy bumper horses Hullnback and Lookaway appealing more as staying types that could find this 2m a bit sharp. I prefer to stick with the smart Aintree form from which Val Dancer ran out a tidy winner on Saturday – the selection finished ahead of him in that race despite doing a lot wrong, racing too keenly and making several mistakes. A tongue-tie should help him to settle in what ought to be a faster run race and hopefully his jumping will be a lot slicker – he clocked a very decent time in his Irish Point behind a horse who has subsequently impressed while he also ran the useful Maximilian close in a spring bumper. This is a very good looking horse that cost a lot of money and it will be disappointing if he can’t get involved here at rewarding odds.

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STATS QUALIFIERS

Monthly Trainers

1.15 Lud – Supervisor H1 UP

2.15 Lud – Laskalin WON 2/1

TTP Jumps 2022/3

2.15 Lud – Laskalin WON 2/1

3.07 Hayd – Chambard H1 UP

3.07 Hayd – Coo Star Sivola UP

Staying Chasers

2.15 Lud – Laskalin WON 2/1

3.07 Hayd – Chambard H1 UP

3.07 Hayd – Coo Star Sivola UP

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OTHER/UPDATES

I owe you Adam’s most recent Racing Round-Up post which I’ll put up soon.

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My write ups…

Marettimo – 16s just looked big here and while I may be idiotic to oppose the top two, I wanted to throw a dart at him. He really took to chasing last season, doing little wrong, including a win around here over shorter and then winning comfortably enough at Ffos Las stepped up to 3m. He’s a big horse who jumps very well, gallops and stays. There should be more to come this season and most of his form reads well for it’s level, beating some well handicapped sorts/ subsequent winners. He usually tracks the pace. A couple of questions… there’s the ‘class’ question- will be be good enough, will his comfort cruising speed be enough to keep in touch and of course there’s that PU LTO. That was on his seasonal return, sent off 25s, on ground that may have been soft enough and over a trip that could well be too sharp for him now. Still, he jumped and travelled well in the main, just getting tired as they straightened up for home. Given his course form there’s a chance this has been a plan. In any case I wanted him onside at 16s to find out. He’ll probably hack up NTO when dropped back into a C4, do add him to your trackers, he should be winning more 3m chases this season. Likeable type. Trainer/jockey are 1/5,2p together in the last 2 weeks.

Of the rest… Laskalin an obvious one I suppose, Venetia has hit form and maybe best to now assume they’re all fit, I’m not sure. He has some obvious form chances to his name, chasing home Le Milos at Exeter stands out. He arrived from France badly handicapped and his mark is only now coming down. It could be it’s still too high, I’m not sure, but in any case at 2s he can beat me. If he’s just too good, fair enough, but he does have the odd question here still. Shane Quinlan has been riding well.

Sam Barton could be progressive also but he needs more than LTO and the one niggle with him is going right-handed. There could be nothing in it but all wins the other way and he shifted to his left at Worcester at times, albeit only slightly. I may be looking for holes where there are none but also a question as to what the form is worth.

It could be those two fight it out but I didn’t really like much else and wanted Bill Turners second season chaser onside at the odds, I’ll happily pay to find out at 16s.

To Haydock..

Up Helly Aa King – I wanted him onside here, running ok in last year’s renewal, travelling well to four out before then getting tired. He then ran a stinker on his next start back here, the only time I’ve ever tipped him until today. On reflection I concluded he probably doesn’t like Haydock Heavy, or proper heavy at all really, despite some of his efforts. It could be as he’s got older he prefers a sounder surface but he bounced back to form at Doncaster two starts back on better ground, winning a vets race comfortably enough come the line, beating Vintage Clouds and Chirico Vallis, ok form. Last year’s renewal of this was much deeper also, well certainly on ratings but the form looks ok for Vets level. (140/150 horses galore). I was really taken by his Kelso return, tanking along behind the pace like a horse on great terms with himself, jumping well, bar the last where he pitched on landing. That may have cost him, I’m not sure. In any case he arrives in form and from a workable mark, his jockeys 5lb will help also and he rode him well last time. He stays 3m on decent ground, the question is 3m1f – it could be he fades approaching the last, but I’ll take the chance. They’re calling it ‘soft’ at Haydock but they did so on Betfair Chase day and I’m not sure it rode overly testing, not for Haydock’s standards. They had some rain last week but nothing since Sunday and I don’t think this will be that bad. I wanted him onside here. He’ll look a big danger after 3 out, and we will see what happens from there on in. He’s lightly raced for his age and in the last two seasons which is a positive in this sort of race.

Saint Xavier – he’d annoy me if winning this with nothing on so some covering fire at 4s. His Cheltenham return was decent and he’ll appreciate moving back up in trip. He’s a 10YO in a Vets chase which is a positive for all he ran in one at Newbury last season, the form of which/his performance niggles at me a bit as I think he needs more. But he could be in better form now, is certainly well handicapped and will appreciate his lighter weight. He should race up there, may well lead. He can smack a fence also, and doesn’t win too often! But I wanted him onside here as cover as he should run a big race. He has course form and ran a big race here in Dec 21 in a bog lugging 11-12, only giving way after the last. That sort of performance is goo enough to put him in the mix here.

I didn’t really like the rest. Venetia’s two can beat me, maybe one will, but hard to know if prepped for today and she’s so canny she must be eyeing up the Vets Finale at Sandown with one or both of them, given that pot and their age. In any case, running here today qualifies both and gives her options at least. Chambard may well be poorly handicapped now. If one of them beats me, so be it, they’re both on the drift, hopefully a good sign for us.

I didn’t like much else. The Two Amigos is being well backed and I suppose I can see the case to some degree but I’ve given him enough chances and if today’s the day, so be it. My two arrive in much better form and showed a lot more on seasonal return, for all maybe he badly needed the Sedgefield race. He needs more than his Taunton effort two starts back but I suppose it showed the fire still burns and he is only 10, for all had a fair few hard races. This mark is now looking workable and maybe I’ve got him wrong but not for me today. Possibly my history of backing him at least x3 to lose (usually placed).

Pace wise… Saint X will try and be up there, Two Amigos may pester, Charlie D may be aggressive, I hope Up Helly just tracks them on this ground, I don’t think you’ll want to be too far off them but who knows. They may ride him to get home.

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GL with any bets.

Josh

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Southwell – we had a decent day out and were pleased with Shandancer – our little pocket rocket. He’s not the biggest but has heart and guts, which will see him win plenty of races at his level. He smacked a few of those fixed brush hurdles which didn’t help but still he came back for more. He also got a bit tired from 2 out. Had he not made those errors he’d have been 3rd. The right two came to the fore, no complaints there, they could be 130 types in the making, where we could be a 110 type maybe. We will keep him to 2 miles for now, to help sharpen up his jumping if nothing else, back over conventional hurdles which may help him (Southwell like mini fences and he struggled at some of them). We shall see how he gets on then step him up to 2m4/5f, probably for handicap debut! Johnny thinks he’ll stay that trip no problem and may be the reason for improvement. But he could win a modest maiden hurdle over 2m and he will be trying to. He will be winning races and we’ll have a lot of fun with him!

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The ‘through the card’ was a bit meh, picking the wrong shorties, not close to some of the better priced winners, x4 2nds which is always annoying but there we go. Not much damage done for track-side fun money. The ground was riding a fair bit softer than advertised.

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Have a great day,

Josh