[Free Post] Ayr Gold Cup Stats, Trends & Trainers

The Ayr Gold Cup is the handicap in focus this weekend and as such I’ve had a dive into the stats & trends, using my own approach with the help of Horse Race Base.

As always what follows is only ever a guide but it can be a useful to help shortlist in these big 20+ runner handicaps. The ‘trainers’ list is always worth flicking through also, horse’s representing connections who’ve won the race previously and should know what’s required to do so again.

In any case, hopefully it helps you solve one of the hardest flat puzzles of the season. Of course, draw and pace can be vital in these races also and it will be interesting to see how the Bronze Cup plays out and whether any potential bias.

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Ayr Gold Cup

15/346, 56p

15/15 aged 3-6 (7+ : 0/59, 6p)

15/15 rated 97+ (lower: 0/34, 2p)

15/15 had no more than 8 runs this calendar year (9+ : 0/58, 9p)

15/15 had 2-7 career wins (had not: 0/67, 6p)

15/15 had 1-6 handicap wins (did not: 0/73, 7p)

• 12/15 had 1-3 handicap wins (12/153, 29p) (inc all prev 7 winners)

15/15 had 0-2 wins in the class (3+ : 0/76, 12p)

14/15 official rating 3-10lb higher than last win (was not: 1/135, 15p)

14/15 top 3 at least once last three starts (did not: 1/97, 7p)

13/15 carried 8-13-9-6 (exc jockey claims) (did not: 2/105, 14p)

12/15 rated 100+ (12/206, 40p, although 0/13 last year)

11/15 drawn in stall 12 or higher (11/195, 29p)

• Stalls 1-7: 1/96, 13p

Other

• Stalls 1-7: 1/96, 13p
• Stalls 12+ : 11/15 (11/195, 29p)  

Trainers

• K Ryan: 4/41, 5p
• A Balding: 2/8, 2p
• X1: T Dascombe, R Fahey, W Haggas, C Cox, J Stack, P Cole, D O’Meara

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Applying the trends…

A strict application of the 15/15 ‘trends’ would point to 15/152 runners, 34p, and IF upholding, would point to just three horses… (all three also have 1-3 handicap wins, a sweet spot)

Khanjar H1, Popmaster, Zarzyni  

If ignoring the ratings and runs in calendar year,  focusing on a profile of age 3-6, 2-7 career wins, 1-6 handicap wins, 0-2 wins in the class, all winners would be covered and you’d be left with a longer list of 12… IF that profile upholds the winner will be here…

Khanjar H1, Fivethoughsandtoone, Popmaster, Bergerac H3, Juan Les Pins, Zarzyni, Aleezdancer, Admiral D, Lucky Man, Pendleton, Motagally

Within that list, those with an official rating 3-10lb higher than last win and a top 3 finish on last three starts would point to 8…

Khanjar, Fivethoughsandtoone, Popmaster, Bergerac, Juan Les Pins, Zarzyni, Aleezdancer, Lucky Man

Of that first long list, those carrying 8-13 – 9-6, would point to 4…

Khanjar, Fivethoughsandtoone, Popmaster, Bergerac,

Trainers (to have won race/with runners)

• Khanjar H1
• Summerghand, Gulliver, Escobar
• Bielsa, Bergerac H3, Aleezdancer, Gis A Sub
• Fivethousandtoone
• Admiral D

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Good luck with any bets, who do you fancy?

Josh