A few pointers for this week’s big handicap chase from Galway. ‘Application’ of the trends to form a ‘trends shortlist’ follows, as well as those horses representing trainers who’ve won the race previously in the last 14 years…
PART 1
The Galway Plate
14/303, 56p
14/14 were at least 5lb lower than top rated (were not: 0/43p, 4p) (23lb or lower than top rated: 0/37, 4p)
14/14 carried 10-2-11-5 (exc jockey claims) (did not: 0/81, 10p)
14/14 ran over 2m6f or shorter last start (did not: 0/75, 11p)
14/14 had 1-13 runs in handicaps (did not: 0/87, 10p)
14/14 had 0-2 runs this season (3+ : 0/46, 3p)
14/14 had no more than 5 runs over further in career (6+ : 0/76, 11p)
14/14 sent off 14/1 or shorter last start (bigger: 0/65, 7p)
13/14 had 2-5 runs this calendar year (had not: 1/98, 15p)
12/14 sent off 16/1 or shorter SP (bigger: 2/148, 11p)
11/14 had 0-1 wins in handicaps (2+ : 3/120, 19p) (no winner with 2+, last 8 renewals)
11/14 had 0 wins in handicap chases (1+ : 3/148, 24p) (no winner with 1+ since 2012)
Other
- 14/14 have run at 7 prep tracks: Punchy (6), Killarney (3), x1 … Down Royal, Perth, Tipperary, Ballinrobe, Newton Abbot
Trainers
- G Elliott: 3/27, 5p
- H De Bromhead: 2/28, 3p
- W Mullins: 2/47, 15p
- X1: J Kiely, T Mullins. C A McBratney, N Meade, T Taaffe, P Nicholls, J O’Brien
*
PART 2
Application of the trends…
A profile of the horse carrying 10-2 – 11-5, excluding jockey claims, 1-13 runs in handicaps, 0-2 runs this season, no more than 5 runs over further and having run over 2m6f or shorter last start… would point to 14/14 (14/95, 29p) and IF upholding would point to a longer list of 12, inc x3 reserves…
Samcro, Exit Poll, Unexcepted (the x3 reserves)… The Shunter, Cape Gentleman, Fire Attack, El Barra H2, Early Doors, Annamix, Darasso, Notebook, Castlegrace Paddy
Of those… 0 handicap chase wins (generally suggesting unexposed/potentially well handicapped) has been a decent pointers especially in recent seasons… applying that to the above list would leave 11/14 (11/48 runners, 15p, +150 BFSP) and IF upholding…
Unexpected, Samcro, Annamix, Darasso, Notebook, Castlegrace Paddy
A list of ALL those entries with 0 handicap chase wins to their name (which does include every winner since 2012)…
Samcro, Unexpected, Cape Gentleman, Gabynako, Easy Game, Ronald Pump, Annamix, Darasso, Gin On Lime, Notebook, Catslegrace Paddy, Battleoverdoyen
*
Trainers (to have won race last 14 years/with runners)
- Samcro, Ash Tree Meado, Hurricane Georgie, Battleoverdoyen
- Fire Attack, Early Doors, A Wave Of The Sea, Darasso
- El Barra, Easy Game, Annamix,
- Gin On Lime, Notebook
- Daly Tiger
*
END