[Free Post] Goodwood Trainer & Jockey Angles

Below you can find four trainer angles and one jockey angle for next week’s big festival from Goodwood. Hopefully they can build on the Newmarket July angles (around +10 points over the three days). In any case, a useful ‘way in’. As always it can be important to check a trainer’s form going into the week. I tend not to like using ‘odds caps’ too often as they can be restrictive but as you’ll see below, the market has been a strong guide historically for some of these trainers and should be noted. Of course there will be the odd winner ‘out of range’.

I have focussed on those trainers with 10 or more winners with all runners in the period (2014-). That list includes those four below, and John Gosden, Andrew Balding, Sir Michael Stoute and Aidan O’Brien. That group will have winners next week, I just couldn’t find any ‘systematic’ angles for them over the last eight Festivals, some have had big losing years for example, or don’t have a clear MO.

Let’s crack on…

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TRAINERS

Mark Johnston

• All handicaps
• Class 2
• Horse had 0-1 wins this season
• Odds: 14/1 or shorter industry starting price (bigger: 1/40, 5p, -19) (they can go off bigger on betfair exchange)

	Bets	Wins	Win%	P/L(SP)	Places	Place%	Races	Race%	P/L(BF)	P/L(Plc)	BF A/E
ALL	55	14	25.45	83.5	25	45.45	38	36.84	104.83	25.53	2.57
2021	6	2	33.33	12	4	66.67	5	40	15.27	6.78	3.08
2020	11	2	18.18	3.5	3	27.27	7	28.57	4.13	-3.27	1.48
2019	4	1	25	4	1	25	4	25	5.59	-1.29	3.45
2018	5	0	0	-5	1	20	4	0	-5	-1.52	0
2017	4	2	50	18	2	50	4	50	21.44	4.83	6.9
2016	11	3	27.27	20	6	54.55	7	42.86	24.59	6.75	3.16
2015	5	0	0	-5	2	40	2	0	-5	1.7	0
2014	9	4	44.44	36	6	66.67	5	80	43.8	11.53	4.17

Notes: fairly self explanatory really – MJ does like to target this week and in particular the C2 handicaps. It can pay to focus on those who are unexposed and/or likely still ahead of their marks, hence the 0-1 wins this season. It may suggest they’ve been kept for this meeting. As you’ll see, the market has been some guide but he will have the odd winner at bigger odds, and he has plenty of winners outside of this angle, but I couldn’t find much else that is profitable ‘systematically’ at least.

As with all trainers on this page, do note the profit to Betfair Exchange Starting Price, third column from the right, and indeed the place profit on Betfair place market, second column from the right.

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Richard Hannon

• All races except maidens
• Odds: 12/1 or shorter industry starting price (bigger: 0/90, 8p)

	Bets	Wins	Win%	P/L(SP)	Places	Place%	Races	Race%	P/L(BF)	P/L(Plc)	BF A/E
ALL	83	18	21.69	48.58	37	44.58	74	24.32	73.98	12.13	1.47
2021	7	3	42.86	17.5	5	71.43	6	50	25.53	6.12	3.41
2020	9	2	22.22	14	4	44.44	8	25	20.84	5.97	2.74
2019	10	3	30	20.5	4	40	9	33.33	28.35	1.07	2.5
2018	8	1	12.5	0	2	25	8	12.5	0.6	-1.64	1.25
2017	5	2	40	7.33	3	60	5	40	7.94	0.35	2.25
2016	6	1	16.67	-1.5	1	16.67	6	16.67	-1.02	-4.16	1.15
2015	18	4	22.22	7.25	8	44.44	14	28.57	8.12	0.01	1.59
2014	20	2	10	-16.5	10	50	18	11.11	-16.36	4.42	0.46

Notes: The stats above suggest RH targets this week and the market has been quite the guide. Well, since 2014 he’s yet to have a winner sent off bigger than 14/1 in any race, for all I know what will happen now! He does have the odd maiden winner but throws a lot of darts at those and they can’t be backed ‘systematically’, but don’t be put off if you end up liking one of his in a maiden. His place SR above is solid enough given how competitive this meeting is, as with all the trainers on this page, which gives confidence longer term. He appears to have been more targeted in recent years and fingers crossed more of the same – a repeat of either of the last three years will do just fine! Do note the profit to Betfair Exchange Starting Price, third column from the right.

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William Haggas

• All races
• Horse drawn in stalls 1-7 (all runners drawn 8+ : 1/38, 8p, -33)
• Odds: 8/1 or shorter industry starting price (bigger: 0/13, 2p) (all runners bigger: 0/30,5p)

	Bets	Wins	Win%	P/L(SP)	Places	Place%	Races	Race%	P/L(BF)	P/L(Plc)	BF A/E
ALL	38	13	34.21	24.15	21	55.26	37	35.14	31.29	7.82	1.63
2021	4	2	50	1.15	3	75	4	50	1.2	1.38	1.55
2020	12	4	33.33	11.5	7	58.33	12	33.33	13.14	3.94	1.45
2019	4	0	0	-4	1	25	4	0	-4	-2.09	0
2018	7	3	42.86	10	5	71.43	6	50	12	5.74	2.52
2017	1	1	100	3.5	1	100	1	100	5.04	1.73	6.25
2016	4	2	50	4	2	50	4	50	5.39	-0.98	1.92
2015	5	1	20	-1	2	40	5	20	-0.48	-0.9	1.41
2014	1	0	0	-1	0	0	1	0	-1	-1	0

Notes: It has paid to focus on the Haggas horses drawn low, which may well be linked to the races he generally targets, the field sizes, or say how he likes his horses ridden, or indeed the jockeys he uses. Clearly being drawn wide is no disadvantage in some races/circs, but he does appear to target this meeting with all runners, and it makes logical sense at this course that it many races it is an advantage to be drawn lower. Again the market has been a guide with all his runners here, which again could well be linked to the draw also, those lower more favoured by the market.

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Charles Hills

• Horse ‘placed’ LTO (standard bookmaker terms)
• Odds: 20/1 or shorter (GUIDE, 0/6,0p bigger)

	Bets	Wins	Win%	P/L(SP)	Places	Place%	Races	Race%	P/L(BF)	P/L(Plc)	BF A/E
ALL	34	11	32.35	28.52	19	55.88	32	34.38	38.93	14.75	1.9
2021	2	0	0	-2	0	0	2	0	-2	-2	0
2020	3	2	66.67	9.29	3	100	3	66.67	10.58	3.31	1.85
2019	6	3	50	17.25	3	50	6	50	22.94	2.42	2.63
2018	4	1	25	-2.27	2	50	3	33.33	-2.19	5.08	1.33
2017	3	1	33.33	2.5	3	100	3	33.33	2.75	4.47	1.89
2016	3	1	33.33	0.25	2	66.67	3	33.33	0.31	2.93	2.63
2015	9	1	11.11	-2	3	33.33	8	12.5	-0	-2.69	0.97
2014	4	2	50	5.5	3	75	4	50	6.53	1.23	2.86

Notes: fairly straight forward again, a meeting Charlie Hills looks to target and it pays to keep his ‘in form’ horses onside, at least from a systematic perspective. The odds cap is a ‘guide’, given the small numbers, and he does have the odd biggie fly in more generally.

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JOCKEYS

William Buick

• All races
• Horse drawn in stalls 2-7 (outside of this: 5/49, 16p, -25)
• Any odds

	Bets	Wins	Win%	P/L(SP)	Places	Place%	Races	Race%	P/L(BF)	P/L(Plc)	BF A/E
ALL	66	19	28.79	66.8	30	45.45	66	28.79	85.45	18.66	1.99
2021	11	5	45.45	14.55	6	54.55	11	45.45	15.56	3.34	2.16
2020	12	3	25	1.5	5	41.67	12	25	3.13	-1.28	1.97
2018	12	2	16.67	-4.25	5	41.67	12	16.67	-3.38	2.62	1.36
2017	8	3	37.5	14.5	5	62.5	8	37.5	24.29	6.65	2.08
2015	15	1	6.67	6	4	26.67	15	6.67	8.38	0.02	0.55
2014	8	5	62.5	34.5	5	62.5	8	62.5	37.45	7.31	5.05

William Buick is the second winning most jockey in the period (with 24 wins in total), Ryan Moore leading the way with 27 (27/179, -71 SP). The latter obviously rides plenty of shorties and I couldn’t find a systematic ‘way in’

Notes: Logic is always important when pondering an angle – at least with William we know he’s chasing the jockey’s championship again and looks on course to win it, 29 ahead of Hollie Doyle, for all a very long way to go and he’s one injury away from being in trouble. But in any case, that foundation is strong – WB is desperate for winners and will be trying his best. His agent will be trying to put him on horses with a strong chance, outside of those for Charlie Appleby. Evidently he rides lower drawn horses well here – in part that’s just the nature of the course, but the stats suggests he gets them in the right position and racing efficiently. His stats from stall 1 are not the greatest but it could be there’s not much in that, small enough numbers. Stall 1 does pose a problem though – do you go forward early to try and hold a position, but risk using up too much gas, or ease off a bit and settle on the rail, but risk being swamped or needing an out later in the race.

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So fingers crossed that little portfolio pays it’s way. Whether they work ‘systematically’ we shall see, but the above will have some winners between them and with any luck said angles help you land on a few of them.

As always, if you’ve any questions, do fire away,

Josh