[Free Post] Royal Ascot Day 2 (complete)

Stats qualifiers, Royal Hunt Cup trends & preview
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Day 1

Trainer / Jockey Qualifiers

Trainers, Jockeys and ‘Handicap’ pointers…

2.30 – Katey Kontent (CC)

3.05 – Baltic Bird (FD)

3.40 – Bay Bridge (SMS, 14/1<)

3.40 – Lord North (JG)

5.00 – Bless Him (JS)

5.00 – Via Serendipity (CF)

5.35 – Far Shot (FD, JG)

6.10 – Pretty Sweet (WB)

6.10 -Serenading (JS)

Trainer/Jockey Combos

2.30 – Queen of Deauville

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Handicaps Preview

Stats, Trends & Trainers

5.00 – Royal Hunt Cup

14/395, 56p

14/14 OR 105 or below (106+ : 0/64, 9p)

14/14 carried 9-5 or less (exc claims) (9-6+ : 0/77, 12p)

14/14, 6th or lower in the weights (top 5: 0/82, 13p) (bottom: 0/35, 7p)

14/14 had 0-9 runs over the distance (10+ : 0/93, 8p)

13/14 had 0-3 handicap wins (4+ : 1/89, 12p)

13/14 had 0-3 wins on the Flat Turf (4+ : 1/118, 16p)

13/14 ran in a C2 or below last start (Class 1: 1/100, 8p)

13/14 ran in a handicap or novice last start (did not: 1/111, 12p)

12/14 had 0-2 runs this season (3+ : 2/121, 11p)

12/14 had 3+ career wins (0-2: 2/124, 12p)

12/14 had 0-1 win at this class or higher classes (2+ : 2/115, 17p)

12/14 had 0-4 places (inc wins) in handicaps (5+ : 2/177, 19p)

10/14 aged 4 (10/172, 30p, age 5+ : 4/223, 26p)

10/14 finished top 4 last start (did not: 4/181, 23p)

Trainers

  • Saeed Bin Suroor: 2/8, 3p
  • x1: Charlie Hills, George Baker, D Marnane, T Tate, J Gosden, A Perrett, M Halford, J Osborne, M Johnston, R Hannon

Other

  • Horse sent off 40/1 or bigger SP: 0/115, 6p
  • Horse had 1 run previously at track: 0/106, 10p
  • Stalls of note/interest/ignore! :
    • 1-3: 0/39, 2p
    • 27-32: 0/60, 8p
    • 33: 3/10, 4p

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Applying the trends…

The 14/14 stats would leave 14/14 (14/235, 38p) and IF upholding would point to a long list of fourteen…

Dark Shift, Legend of Dubai, Totally Charming, Rebel Territory, Cruyff Turn, Excel Power, Desert Peace, Isla Kai, Etonian, Lunar Space, Percys Lad, Fantastic Fox, Notre Belle Bete, Real Force

Of those with 0-3 handicap wins and 0-3 flat turf wins…

Legend of Dubai, Totally Charming, Rebel Territory, Desert Peace, Etonian, Lunar Space, Fantastic Fox, Notre Belle Bete, Real Force

The only horse to hit the other 13/14 and 12/14 stats (but leaving 7/14, 7/33 runners, 13p) is… Rebel Territory

Trainers (to have won race/with runners)

  • Dark Shift
  • Magical Morning
  • Rebel Territory
  • Lunar Space

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DAY 2 PREVIEW

5.00 – Royal Hunt Cup

Bless Him – 22/1

Cruyff Turn – 25/1-28/1

Etonian – 33/1-40/1

This looks an impossible race really but with 6/7 places to play with I’ll have three small EW wagers in the hope one or two can get in the mix.

Bless Him – not on the trends list (but a Spencer qualifier above) but there could be another Spencer Special on the way over this Ascot straight 8f, a CD he rides better than most, esp in this sort of scenario. This is a high class horse at his best who relishes nothing better than a strong pace and big field in which to pick through. He ran ok at the meeting last year in the G1 Queen Anne, has won a Royal Ascot handicap here when younger, has comfortably beaten Lord North around here also. He needs a strong pace and he has to be delivered late. He is in and around where the main pace could be also. We shall see, but if he runs his race/gets the luck required, I suspect Jamie will get him placed (top 6/7) and then we shall see.

Cruyff Turn – one from the trends list – I don’t know whether significant than rather come down here for one ride, David Allan has plenty up at Ripon – maybe, but they’ve booked Tom Marquand which is no bad replacement. This horse has solid, big field handicap form, he’s versatile tactics wise, and is tough. He’s also still open to improvement and may well have been in front long enough at York last time when winning a decent handicap. Conditions look fine and there’s a chance a solid pace over this straight 8f is ideal for him. He arrives in form, Tim E knows what’s needed to win races at this meeting, and I didn’t see a reason he wouldn’t run his race (for all his first start here) – I thought that would be good enough to put him bang in the mix here.

Etonian – a bit of a flyer that may amount to very little. This one was a decent 2YO, winning a G3, after which he was talked about as a Guineas horse for the following season. Things didn’t quite work out there with I assume the odd injury, missing a fair bit of time. This is his 3rd run back after a break and I’m in no doubt that if he retains any of his old ability, he’ll be doing damage from this sort of mark at some point. He didn’t run badly on his return, travelling well, never really put into it, but running as if it was needed. He was then pitched into the Group 1 Lockinge, (Baaeed / Real World the 1-2) and blasted from the front – he travelled strongly and led them for quite away, before those exertions and a lack of class caught up with him. But, he wasn’t really given a chance to be seen to his best. It’s not impossible this was pencilled in as a plan. Richard Hannon’s horses have been running well here so far, x2 agonising 2nds for them yesterday. I’m hoping they’re more patient with him, giving him cover, and creeping him into the race. I think he travels like a horse who could relish this sort of test but there’s only one way to find out. It could be he’s not the same horse, or is best at 7f. But at his price, I’ll have an interest EW nibble. It’s a fair drop in class for him from last time.

Dangers… well, where do you start. Legend Of Dubai has been well found and he did hack up when last seen, like a good’un. He’s been saved for this and is no doubt still well handicapped. But this is a different sort of test and he did drift markedly under pressure last time, still plenty to learn. 5s also feels short for a handicap such as this and he’ll just have to beat me at that price, which he may do. I could name five other horses and still not mention the winner. It’s that sort of race.

Elsewhere…

They’re my only fun bets on today’s card really, although I probably should have change EW on Amy’s (‘the boss’) Manhattan Jungle in the first. It’s great for the team to have runners at the Royal meeting and with any luck in the years to come it’s a regular occurrence. They’ve also got one on Friday, and if she runs well, we’re not expecting to see Amy at our RTP Syndicate Open Day on Saturday as the party will stretch long into the evening no doubt. Manhattan is more heart than head – well, in a race such as that, where do you start! I hope she runs a stormer and can mix it in the places.

I didn’t like much else from the trainers/jockey’s list, for all maybe something there will pop up.

Looking back at yesterday…

Some great racing and performances, especially the Aussie sprinter. Punting wise… a small profit if extra places/bog/backed EW – (5th, 6th and 4th), and two unplaced. A few of those races would have ended up differently had there been more pace on, but that’s racing. I’m not sure it impacted any of mine as such, not for win purposes. Pied Piper travelled like a horse who has flat handicaps in him but maybe on softer and/or maybe over slightly shorter. He was trapped for a time but I’m not sure made a difference. He would have appreciated a stronger pace, as would Reshoun who got himself quite far back having not had the pace from wide to go forward at the start. He stayed on well and has more wins in him at that trip, as does Arcadian Sunrise who was anchored last after a sluggish start and with a much stronger pace to aim at would have been closer. He had to use up plenty of petrol to get into a challenging position. More wins in him. Regal Reality didn’t get going until very late either. But it’s often a week of hard luck stories or horses who could have run better in different scenarios. Onwards

Any fancies today? GL as always,

Josh

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

3 Responses

  1. todays video replay list
    ASCOT
    2-30 love reigns – dramatised – all the time – miami girl
    3-05 baltic bird – nahanni – ruler legend
    3-40 bay bridge
    4-20 saffron beach – bashikova
    5-00 etonian – astro king – magical morning – totally charming
    5-35 kuwait city – little big bear – wodao – jumbeau

    of the above
    lots of enhanced e/w races today so god chance of getting the frame with some biggies

    MIAMI GIRL 20/1 ew 5 places. taking the last run out finishing behind a few rivals here today. didnt look to be having a good day. the guineas day race showed a very good turn of speed at the sharp end. on that form should be right up there today.

    BALTIC BIRD 10/1 progressive 3yr old that won well last time out hit the front and nothing else got a look in. has form with NAHANNI on debut. up in trip and class today. looks to have a chance on that run.

    BAY BRIDGE 1/1 hard to look past bay bridge given previous form. shahryay and lord north possible dangers if at all there are any

    SAFFRON BEACH 11/4 holds form over mother earth beating her and dreamloper that won the Prix d’Ispahan (Group 1) at longchamp in may back in october at newmarket. solid for the one to beat.

    TOATLLY CHARMING 12/1 e/w 7 places (365)
    ETONIAN 40/1 e/w 7 places (365)
    totally charming won well last time out came off the pace went away and won nicely. frankie booked today a big plus. comes with that for today should be at least in the first 7.
    etonian is still low mileage hasnt fulfilled early career promise but still only a 4yr old. im convinced he has a big race in him still. drawn well today. large field but a more attainable race to win.

    WODAO 14/1 e/w 5 places (365)
    KUWAIT CITY 66/1 5 places (365)
    wodao finished behind the Antarctic twice whos entered in the Norfolk tomorrow before bolting up in style at navan last time out in impressive style. should easily make the frame
    kuwait city is a little more speculative. but won his last race impressively. took a bit of a keen hold but waited for a gap and when it came race was over. better than the price suggests.

    thats all from me as always good luck today.

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