[Free Post] February Trainers To Follow?

Introduction

Below you can find a few trainers to keep an eye on this month, to help in our quest finding winners. As always the daily qualifiers will be posted within the Members’ Club, usually by 6pm the day before.

As with all of my daily stats content, and indeed pro punter Adam Norman’s excellent notes, the first priority is to provide a unique ready made shortlist of potential bets, to look through if you please and decide if they’re worth a bet.

The ‘monthly trainers’ have been doing their job in terms of firing out winners, but they’ve also been working well ‘systematically’ since October to end December…

144 bets / 31 wins / 59 places (inc wins) / +34.24 (morning/non bog) / +39.45 BFSP

January’s efforts just about wiped their face…

39 bets / 8 wins / 20 places (inc wins) / -3.71 (morning/non bog) / +1.1 BFSP

Which means to date since Oct 1st…

183 bets / 39 wins / 79 places (inc wins) / +30.53 / +40.55 BFSP

With any luck the trainers below can build on those systematic profits, but if nothing else provide a useful ‘way in’ to finding bets…

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February Trainers

Kim Bailey

• All National Hunt
• February
• Horse Aged 4, 5 or 6
• Any odds (15/2< best, note below)

	Bets	Wins	Win%	P/L(SP)	Places	Place%	P/L(BF)	P/L(Plc)	BF A/E
ALL	94	29	30.85	35.19	48	51.06	64.82	23.38	1.78
2021	8	4	50	12.5	5	62.5	17.37	14.84	3.57
2020	9	1	11.11	-4	5	55.56	-3.88	-2.17	0.69
2019	15	4	26.67	7.42	5	33.33	16.58	-4.82	1.58
2018	10	4	40	2.19	6	60	2.54	1.7	1.54
2017	28	8	28.57	10.47	15	53.57	23.71	15.05	1.84
2016	8	1	12.5	-3	3	37.5	-2.49	-0.37	1.05
2015	8	5	62.5	7.36	5	62.5	8.26	-0.17	2.4
2014	8	2	25	2.25	4	50	2.74	-0.68	1.61

Note: Kim does well with his younger horses at this time of year, no doubt having built up their experience while still generally being unexposed. Looking at the market, 15/2< or shorter is the sweet spot, those sent off bigger within the angle above.. 1/32, 8p, -17 SP. It could be for ‘systematic’ purposes you exclude them but there’s been a 14/1 winner, and a handful that have gone close at big odds inc a 66/1 place, the odd 20s shot going close etc. But, do with those figures as you please.

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Fergal O’Brien

• All Chase & Hurdle races
• February
• Jockey: Paddy Brennan
• Any odds (22/1+, 0/8,0p)

	Bets	Wins	Win%	P/L(SP)	Places	Place%	P/L(BF)	P/L(Plc)	BF A/E
ALL	92	26	28.26	61.5	42	45.65	101.77	3.05	1.52
2021	18	6	33.33	19.96	7	38.89	26.2	-2.55	1.99
2020	19	6	31.58	7.4	13	68.42	8.62	4.84	2.01
2019	12	3	25	-1.75	7	58.33	-0.52	-1.46	0.87
2018	11	2	18.18	1	4	36.36	3.18	-2.35	0.85
2017	15	5	33.33	13.51	5	33.33	17.43	-0.66	1.71
2016	6	3	50	30	3	50	55.41	5.98	2.88
2015	1	0	0	-1	0	0	-1	-1	0
2014	10	1	10	-7.62	3	30	-7.55	0.26	0.83

Fergal and Paddy keep ticking along and do particularly well in February, for all they’re generally consistent these days at most times of year. This is the month where they have the highest win SR so far, again following on from what can be a quieter time in Dec and Jan, % sr wise, 16.4% and 17.6%, bouncing up to 28% in Feb before dropping off in March and April – which could be linked to ‘Festival season’ and how competitive the racing becomes. It could also be that having readied horses to peak early season, Sept-Nov, they have a lull in the middle, maybe due to the ground being deeper, or again winter flu jab season etc, before doing better this month. Possibly. That could all be nonsense! But its important with any trainer angle to ponder the logic and ‘why’ something is happening and whether the rules make sense, which boosts confidence that results will be repeated in ‘live play’. Trainers can be creatures of habit.

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Paul Nicholls

• All runners
• February
• Horse had 1 run in prev 90 days only
• Any odds (x4 winners 14/1 – 33/1)

	Bets	Wins	Win%	P/L(SP)	Places	Place%	P/L(BF)	P/L(Plc)	BF A/E
ALL	190	66	34.74	111.84	96	50.53	228.62	14.56	1.45
2021	33	7	21.21	4.9	17	51.52	11.33	1.07	0.92
2020	32	17	53.13	53.98	21	65.63	133.89	18.98	1.8
2019	23	7	30.43	24.45	11	47.83	42.03	5.01	1.77
2018	21	6	28.57	-0.64	7	33.33	0.59	-6.5	1.32
2017	28	9	32.14	8.75	10	35.71	12.9	-10.37	1.59
2016	20	8	40	15.8	12	60	20.06	8.1	1.55
2015	18	7	38.89	4.71	10	55.56	6.98	-1.83	1.41
2014	15	5	33.33	-0.11	8	53.33	0.85	0.09	1.15

This angle has been posted on here for the previous two years ‘live’ and it continues to tick along, esp to BFSP. Last year was solid if unspectacular and we shall see if 2020 can be repeated – helped by the 33s winner of the Betfair Hurdle. Paul appears to do well with those horses that are fresh at this time of year and lightly raced more recently, likely open to masses of improvement. Paul is known to give his string the winter flu jab in January, which can lead to a lull before they step up again. It could be he eases off at home a bit also, in prep for the latter half of the season. The win SR for this angle is more than double what it is in December (17%) and Jan (15%). It could be by this point in the season he’s worked out more of his horses, how to train them, what’s required, or he’s given them time etc. In any case, the stats are decent, I think there’s some ok logic there, and with any luck he has another profitable month.

Those with 0 or 2+ runs in prev 90 days, in Feb… 21.5% win SR, -140 SP.

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Hopefully those three angles fire out the winners again this month and you may land on a few of them.

Thanks for reading and always, any comments or questions, fire away down below,

Happy Punting,

Josh

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