Introduction
That headline is designed to lure you in!
Obviously there is no sure fire way to finding winners in this great game, or even creating shortlists and assessing value. I won’t sit here and say ‘this is how you ‘should’ be doing it. There is no right way, no silver bullet to ‘finding winners’. (or finding overpriced horses) There’s always room for improvement of course, and I could do with having a good latter half of the season.
At times before Christmas I wasn’t overly happy with my performance so I pondered my approach to race analysis, especially my main target races (c3+, 3m+ handicap chases), and tried to re-order my thinking and process, some aspects going ‘back to basics’ with things like trainer form/stats and whether the horse is in form! You can be too clever for your own good in this game and I was guilty of that at times. Having said that, it isn’t an easy game in which to succeed at long term but it’s not meant to be. There is no ‘easy’ way to become a long term winner if picking your own horses/bets out, but you can’t cut corners. Well, if you can, I haven’t worked out how!
After landing on Prime Venture (20s) at Sandown and Eclair Surf (12s) at Warwick on Saturday, I’m in much better form than I have been at times this season. And my ‘morning musings’ (where I use the daily blog content as my ‘way in’, highlighting the ones I like most) have been doing well since I started, in which I also apply much of the thinking outlined below.
So, I thought I’d use The Classic Chase and Eclair Surf as an example, and talk through my thinking and approach. Hopefully I say something useful which you may apply to your own punting, or even if it’s just the mention of a few horses to keep an eye on. Or what I picked up when watching the replays of two of Eclair’s chases, which I talk through also.
Below you can find my video. As always if I’m talking too slowly, you can ‘speed me up’ by pressing the cog in the bottom right hand corner, and increasing the playback speed.
After that you can find out outline of my ‘process’ which I talk through, using the classic chase as an example.
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The four Ps… my guiding template…
People
- Trainers – are they in form? Any relevant stats, including course, type of race, type of horse etc
- Jockeys – is their booking significant? Any relevant stats, including course etc …
- Trainer & Jockeys – any relevant ‘combo’ stats, or other positives – recent form together
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Profile (the horse)
- Is the horse unexposed, do I think there’s more to come from them – generally, and within race conditions/race type. Do I think they’ve hit their ratings ceiling yet?
- Are they well handicapped?
- Do they have any ‘hot form’
- Do they have the ‘class’ ? Including form at a higher class.
- Will they handle race conditions (going, course, distance, field size) or improve for them?
- Is the horse ‘in form’?
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Pace
- How will the race be run, who may that benefit?
- Where will the horses slot in, if an advantage to be prominent or leading, can you make a case for any of those?
- Why may a horse now race further forward, having been held onto? (into a handicap, down in trip, up in trip – so can more easily hold a position, 1st time headgear, change of jockey etc)
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Price
- Pulling it all together, assessing any shortlist, and having an idea on what price you think they should be, and what may be a ‘value’ price. This is very subjective, but having some sort of grip on whether you think a horse is ‘overpriced’ is important. Doing this, and all of the above, before checking Oddschecker, or reading other tipping columns etc.
- You can re-assess the favourite, and/or second favourite – are they beatable? Do you think there are chinks or reasons why they won’t perform? If so, that automatically creates value elsewhere. Some favourites are great value of course.
- I do think this is more art than science! And far from prescriptive.
- There certainly is no right or wrong with this approach. You could create your own ’tissue’ prices of course.
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Underlying my race analysis… I’m thinking about what I know about a horse, what I don’t know, whether i think they will improve for today and against recent starts, and why. What are they doing differently? Are they likely to run their race? Did they have a valid excuse last time out, if a seemingly ‘poor’ run. I’m weighing up any positives against any negatives (both for horse, trainer, even jockey), and whether any risks are built into the price.
And of course there is replay watching, and building up my knowledge on a certain group of horses, if you please. Especially useful when assessing jumping. That is one of the reasons to ‘specialise’ especially if short on time, or wanting to become an ‘expert’ in a certain race type for example.
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And finally, do rely on your instinct, try to think outside the box occasionally, and do not over-think at times. Making a decision can be the hardest part of this, but once you’ve made it, stick with it.
No horse will tick every box, whatever your approach. There is no perfect bet. You could more more weight on one of the ‘Ps’, or use as your main ‘way in’ (trainers, or pace for example)
I also don’t sit here making sure I go through every aspect of that ‘template’, it’s more engrained in my head, for all I do occasionally remind myself to make sure I’ve thought about everything I want to.
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Hopefully something above may be of some use. I don’t think there’s a way to shortcut race analysis, especially when it comes to big handicaps, but I could be wrong!
As always any questions, comments or whatever else, fire away.
Josh
9 responses
It may appear to be a stupid question but where on earth do you get all this information from?
Hi Edwin,
It isn’t a stupid question – the piece of kit I use in the video above, and where I have access to all that information at the click of various buttons is Geegeez Gold – which for me are the best racing tools around, certainly the racecards etc. I also use HorseRaceBase for bits and pieces – I doff my cap to anyone who uses the Racing Post to find winners, I can’t, I don’t think their cards etc are that good, but that’s just me. ATRs cards are ok, and do have pace maps at least.
you can try Geegeez Gold here… https://www.horseracingexperts.co.uk/affiliates//idevaffiliate.php?id=148
Josh
All the factors you use are valid and obviously successful in finding winners. But the most important is value, i.e. is the horse overpriced ? How do you calculate what the true odds of any horse should be? This is difficult and subject to many parameters.
I use a simple method to assess value which works some of the time but not always but that is the nature of the game which we are playing. I usually back these on Betfair. This gave me 5 winners last Saturday at 7-2, 9-2, 11-2, 6-1 and 12-1 (industry sp) but much better on Betfair. There were 13 losers. I will also back them for a place if the value is there. Quite often all get placed with no winners. I will also back more than one horse in a race if they are value for money.
This method gave the winner of the Irish Grand National 2021, Freewheelin Dylan at 150-1, massively overpriced.
Kind regards to you and a profitable New Year !!
Great stuff Roger –
Yep I’d fully agree value is the most important factor, certainly for winning long term – i’ve sort of called that ‘price’ above in my 4 Ps and maybe could have stressed it more in the video, but you do have to asses whether you think a horse is overpriced- that is far from an exact science. I don’t as yet regularly compile my own tissue prices, I suppose it’s more instinct, and having an idea on who I like etc before looking at the odds – how competitive a race is, is the top of the market opposable etc. There is no right or wrong way of assessing value of course and all rather subjective! But you certainly cannot ignore price, and won’t do that well long term focussed on the very top of the market,
Sounds like you’ve a method which suits you and that works, top stuff,
All the best and keep piling up those profits!
Josh
Unclear what the basis of Your Method is, Roger? ~ PaulJo $
are you a tipster if so how do you get your bets
Hi Sandro… I do tip horses yet, there’s all sorts in my daily posts but you can just focus on my tips which go up at 9am…
More info inc a £1.99 30 day trial here… https://racingtoprofit.co.uk/joinmembersclub
Josh
Thanks Josh for all those e-mails to keep us non-subcribers in touch with the stats,trends etc.As a ‘free ‘Geegeez subscriber I find that there is too much information to sift through (and it gets more plentiful by the month !) and by the time you reach a conclusion to the study of a race ,you either pick the wrong one or are too confused to have a bet.As you say ATR provides enough crucial info.to be the first port of call usually.Love your shortlists on major races.
Ray
Hi Ray,
I’d agree with that generally if your daily starting point to the days racing is a blank sheet.
I do think you need a way in, a focus or an area to specialise in. As regardless of the tools, you’ll find too much etc.
For me that is c3, 3m+ chases generally and I’m trying to make sure they are the main tipping focus. And I use Geegeez cards for those races as whole, with the approach as laid out above. I like having all that info at a click of a button. But there are chunks of geegeez I don’t use.
But some will use the stats reports, some the pace maps, others the sectional times as their focus, or angles they’ve saved etc.
But each to their own. There is plenty of good stuff as a free subscriber.
Unless just following systems blind, I find it hard to cut corners with race analysis etc, for all you can over complicate and it’s useful to get the basics right.
Anywa, sounds like you’ve got an approach which suits you which is the main thing.
And yep, my weekly trends posts have generally been doing very well, either the trends shortlists or trainer pointers. Usually a few winners dotted around.
Josh