Saturday’s ITV Trends & Trainer Pointers (Free)

Saturday’s ITV pointers

For this week’s trends offering i’ve focussed on the big three ‘staying’ handicap chases live on ITV. You can find those pointers below, including my own shortlists against the trends and trainer pointers. Below that you can then find the ‘TV Trainer Pointers’ for all the other live ITV races, horses representing trainers who’ve won said race previously in the study period (up to last 13 renewals in horseracebase)

Let’s crack on…

1.15 Newbury

13/180, 44p

13/13 sent off 14/1 or shorter SP (16/1+: 0/66, 10p)

11/13 had 1-2 handicap chase wins (0; 1/58, 14p; 3+ : 1/32, 6p)

11/13 ridden by today’s jockey 0-2 (3+ : 2/79, 19p)

10/13 finished 1st or 2nd at least once last 3 runs (did not: 3/65, 10p)

10/13 had 1-2 wins in last 365 days (0: 3/78, 16p; 3+ : 0/10,2p)

10/13 had 1-2 handicap wins (0: 0/30,5p; 3+ : 3/53, 10p)

10/13 ran 11-30 days ago (10< : 0/10,4p; 31-180: 0/27, 5p; 181-240, 3/16, 3p; 241+ 0/26, 5p)

Other

  • Oldest horse in race: 0/22,0p
  • Horse had 0-1 handicap chase runs: 0/29, 7p
  • Horse ran in novices race LTO: 0/24,6p

Trainers

  • P Nicholls: 2/14, 7p
  • X1: K Bailey, T George, P Bowen, V Dartnall, P Hobbs, D Skelton, Jonjo O’Neill, W Greatrex, C Williams, N Henderson, R Rowe

*

2.05 Newcastle

11/105, 32p

11/11 top 6 in weights (7th or lower: 0/43, 7p)

11/11 had all run at Grade 1, 2 or 3 level in career (had not: 0/22, 2p)

10/11 had 0-1 runs this season (2: 1/17, 4p; 3+ : 0/20, 2p)

10/11 had 2+ handicap wins (0-1: 1/41, 14p)

9/11 had 2+ handicap chase wins (0-1: 2/56, 19p)

9/11 had ‘placed’ in 6 or more chases (0-5: 2/63, 19p)

6/11 ran in G2, G3, Listed LTO (6/30, 12p, +99 BFSP)

7/11 ran at Ayr (4/8,5p) or Aintree (3/13,7p) LTO

Trainers

  • C Tizzard: 3/4,3p
  • X1: N Henderson, N Richards, NTD, Sandy Thomson, V Williams, S Smith, D Pipe, N Alexander

*

3.00 Newbury

13/237, 49p

13/13 had 3-6 runs in prev 365 days (0-2: 0/27, 3p; 7+ : 0/35, 5p)

12/13 last ran 26+ days ago (25< : 1/64, 10p)

11/13 aged 6-8 (5: 0/2,0p; 9+ 2/79, 16p)

11/13 sent off 12/1 or shorter SP (bigger: 2/143, 20p)

11/13 had 0-8 handicap runs (9+ : 2/78, 15p)

11/13 had placed at least one last two starts (had not: 1/63, 8p)

11/13 had 2 or 3 chase wins (1: 0/28, 4p; 4+ : 2/70, 14p)

10/13 had 1 run in prev 90 days (0: 3/71, 13p; 2+ : 0/43, 7p)

10/13 had 3 or 4 runs this calendar year (10/116, 29p; 0-2: 2/60, 9p; 5+ : 1/61, 11p)

10/13 had 0-2 places in handicap chases (inc wins) (3+ : 3/86, 15p)

9/13 won at least once last two starts (9/102, 27p, had not: 4/135, 22p)

Other

  • Horses 11th or lower in weights but NOT bottom weights (0/59, 6p)

Trainers

  • C Tizzard: 2/16, 6p
  • N Henderson: 2/21, 7p
  • X1: E Lavelle, M Bradstock, N Williams, W Mullins, O Sherwood, Jonjo O’Neill, D Pipe, P Nicholls

*

Applying the stats and trends…

1.15 Newbury

If this goes to a horse with 1 or 2 handicap chase wins again (11/13) it would point to five, for all it drew a blank last year…

Killer Clown H4, Kapcorse, Ofalltheginjoints, Espoir De Teillee H2, Moon Over Germany

I’m not overly sure on the logic of the jockey stat, maybe indicating horse is unexposed, but if that upholds it would reduce the above to four…

Killer Clown, Kapcorse, Ofalltheginjoints, Moon Over Germany

Top 2 at least once last three starts…

Kapcorse, Killer Clown, Espoir De Teillee

Trainers (to have won race/with runners)

  • Kapcorse, Grand Sancy
  • Dame De Compagnie
  • Kalooki
  • Espoir De Teillee H2
  • Locks Corner

*

2.05 Newcastle

Looking at the x2 11/11 stats, top six in weights and had run at G3+ previously, IF upholding, would point to five…

Aye Right, Dingo Dollar, Nuts Well H1, Notachance, Some Chaos, Takingrisks

Applying the x2 10/11 stats to the list above…

Aye Right, Dingo Dollar, Notachance, Takingrisks

*

Trainers (to have won race/with runners)

  • The Ferry Master, Dingo Dollar
  • Good Boy Bobby H2
  • Informateur
  • Takingrisks

*

3.00 Newbury

Looking at those with 3-6 runs in the prev 365 days, aged 6-8 and who last ran 26+ days ago, leaves 10/13 (10/85 runners, 23p) and IF upholding would point to a longer list of nine…

Fiddlerontheroof H1, Eklat De Rire H3, Enrilo, Copperhead, The Hollow Ginge, Danny Whizzbang, Cloudy Glen, Full Back, Fortescue

The market has been a reliable guide in recent years, 12/1< which could be used as a guide for those above, some may be backed into range of course.

Further applying the trends… 0-8 handicap runs, placed at least once last two starts and 2-3 chase wins, points to 8/13 (8/40 runners, 15p)…

Eklat De Rire, Fiddlerontheroof, Enrilo

1 run in previous 90 days has been a positive (rather than a neg for others) and applied to the longlist above…

Fiddlerontheroof, Eklat De Rire, The Hollow Ginge, Fortescue, Full Back

Of that longlist, those NOT 11th or lower in the weights (exc bottom weights)…

Eklat De Rire, Fiddlerontheroof, Copperhead, Danny Whizzbang

Trainers (to have won race/with runners)

  • Ontheropes H4, Brahma Bull, Annamix
  • Fiddlerontheroof H1, Copperhead, Mister Malarkey
  • Enrilo
  • Remastered
  • Cloth Cap
  • Potterman, Canelo
  • Brave Eagle

*

ITV Trainer Pointers

Horses representing trainers who’ve won said race previously… indicating the trainer knows the type of horse required to win said race, they may be keen to win it again, and the horse ‘may’ have been aimed at it…

1.15 Newbury

  • Kapcorse, Grand Sancy
  • Dame De Compagnie
  • Kalooki
  • Espoir De Teillee H2
  • Locks Corner

1.30 Newcastle

None.

1.50 Newbury

no data in HRB

2.05 Newcastle

  • The Ferry Master, Dingo Dollar
  • Good Boy Bobby H2
  • Informateur
  • Takingrisks

2.25 Newbury

  • Captain Morgs H4

3.00 Newbury

  • Ontheropes H4, Brahma Bull, Annamix
  • Fiddlerontheroof H1, Copperhead, Mister Malarkey
  • Enrilo
  • Remastered
  • Cloth Cap
  • Potterman, Canelo
  • Brave Eagle

3.15 Newcastle

  • Epatante H3
  • Monmiral H1

3.35 Newbury

  • Il Ridoto, Getaway Trump
  • Elusive Belle
  • Frero Banbou
  • Star Max

*

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

4 Responses

  1. 2.05 Newcastle – the 2 11/11 trends would also leave Takingrisks wouldn’t it? Its in top 6 weights and has won a G3 race before at Ayr.

    1. Hmm good spot, yep, he hits all my main filters I’ve used there! Not sure how I’ve missed him or what I did wrong first time round, as I use HRB, must have ticked an incorrect box when filtering, apols about that. He’s on all shortlists now. He should go well if there’s a downpour, needs some rain to slow it all down these days I think,
      GL, Josh

      1. Yeah i don’t think he wins at his age unless there is a down pour (I think there may be?). Quite like Nuts Well at the price but does he stay this trip…. I guess we’ll find out

  2. Newbury 300 need a horse up with the pace front runner I’ve gone for remastered last 2 years horse with pace picks it up from 16th fence wins by 4 to 5 lengths price 12 or less only an observation!

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