Below you can find an update for the year to date. There’s a spreadsheet below which tracks some of the stats qualifiers (section 2 & 3 of the daily posts), my tips from 1st May since I refocussed on 2m7f+ jumps races. Following the spreadsheet there’s a few thoughts etc…
Well I haven’t really moved anywhere as yet this summer jumps season but still a fair way to go through to mid-October. It has been a tad quieter than I expected and I am finding those C4 handicap chases tough enough. A ‘bobbing along’ phase at the moment waiting for a big spike. July was better with +13 points or so and a few more months like that would be good. I’m much more content now with my 3m+ Jumps focus and that will pay off in time, and if I can pull in 60-100 points per year with those I’ll be more than happy.
The total since May 1st 2021 to end July…
69 bets / 9 wins / 22 places (inc wins) / -6.75 advised/non bog / -7.07 BFSP
That would make the total since mid October 2020 on the 3m+ tips around +78 points profit, for all that sadly I didn’t just focus on those last winter but won’t be making that mistake again.
The win SR could do with being higher than 13% for all the win/place around 32% is solid enough and that will start climbing back in the right direction at some point. A handful of frustrating 2nds/placed horses as always, but that’s the game and it evens out over time. I’ve no concerns with those moving forwards but work to do.
My jumps ‘tips’ above are the core tipping element of the blog but I have been trying to use my stats qualifiers as a ‘way in’ , adding a ‘star’ or diamond next to those stats qualifiers I like and will be backing with my own money, for all a lot less than I do my tips above. It is very much a ‘horse’ first approach rather than spending loads of time going through the race in anguished depth, unlike the core tips above. So far this summer I’ve had mixed success and as yet I haven’t got going with them. They made +11 points over the winter and i’d like them to add 25-40 points a year in an ideal world but work to do… so far, since May 1st…
Jumps Star Ratings: 2/24, 4p, -13.5
Flat Star Ratings: 2/22, 9p, -2
Total: 4/46, 13p, -15.5
So far, not great, but only a handful of winners away from profit, if only I could land on the right ones! They’ll get there, I’m ever confident in the long term but some more short term success wouldn’t go amiss.
I’m not that happy with the core stats reports/the qualifiers in general. They have always meant to be a useful ‘starting point’ rather than a systematic approach as such, but they’re not even doing a great job on that front for me, not firing out enough winners. I’ve tried to do something a bit different with various angles but may well go back to a revised ‘Trainer Track Profiles’ report for the winter season.
The rest of the content is very much a ‘starting point/way in’ and in general I’m pleased with how the Saturday Big Race Trends and TV Trainer Pointers have been performing. The trends ‘shortlists’ have highlighted plenty of winners as have the trainer pointers and the big Festival micro angles. Between them they find enough winners but it’s all about landing on the right ones, in time. There’s no real ‘systematic’ approach we can take with any of those sadly but they’re doing their job and help add some focus on what can be busy race days.
The other ‘ad hoc’ daily content, especially the ‘through the cards’ and ‘flat pointers‘ have been doing well enough, again flagging plenty of winners and numerous useful stats snippets/observations. They appear to have gone down well, as an interesting daily read if nothing else. We are in the entertainment business after all.
I think that’s all for this update,