Members Daily Post: 26/07/21 (complete)

Stats quals, star ratings, musings

1.Tips

2. Summer Jumps Angles

3. Flat Turf Angles

4.Other/Updates

5. Members’ Dashboard : Click HERE>>>

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1.Tips

None, no jumps of choice today, but more potential opportunities ahead this week than there has been for some time, a fair few 3m+ chases through to Sunday and there’s the Galway Plate on Wednesday which I’ll no doubt have a flick through!

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2. Summer Jumps Angles

(all qualifiers = 20/142, 45p, -40.4) (star rating ‘ ♦ ‘ = 2/24, 4p, -13.5)

None.

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3. Flat Turf Angles

(all qualifiers = 20/124, 43p, -38.97) (star rating ‘ ♦ ‘ = 2/18, 8p, +2)

4.30 Ayr – Frog And Toad (m41) 17/2 ♦ UP, rubbish, had the pace set up, never really went a yard

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4.Other/Updates

The week ahead…

This morning I’ll dive into HRB and find a trainer angle or two for Galway (jumps) and Glorious Goodwood. Any said qualifiers will be posted from tomorrow’s post onwards.

Trends wise.. I will just stick to the Galway Plate on Wednesday, and then a couple of Saturday’s handicaps, likely the two Steward’s Sprints from Goodwood.

For Goodwood each day I will list any horses representing trainers to have won said race previously, as a way in.

So that lot, plus the usual content with the prospect of a few more tipping races.

On Thursday I’m trekking over to Bristol for a long weekend to catch up with a couple of old uni housemates, but as always you shouldn’t notice too much difference on here. It will be a ‘working holiday’, as they all are. Maybe I’ll try and squeeze in a proper week off in September with your permission, we shall see.

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Frog And Toad – a ‘star rating’ pick here at 8s, 17/2 which has just lured me in, for all he’s yet to win a race but he’s shown more the last twice, as if he’s got ability, bumping into one at Donny in a C5 when beating the rest well enough, and finding trouble a couple of times up Hamilton’s straight, which may have prevented a ‘running on’ effort, for all the final 1/2 furlong (8.5f) up that hill may well have been too far anyway, but Danny wasn’t hard on him after the second interference. He gets the weight-for-age here and on paper a fair bit of pace he can sit off and I can hope two or three of these do too much on the front end, taking each other on, for all that when it’s rattling quick here they can stay there. The sensible play with the places is probably an EW bet.

Clay Regazzoni did beat him in that Hamilton race, free enough (he’d want to settle better here maybe) but still dictating and bolting up. I was mildly surprised to see him at 8s given that performance, and he may be worth a closer look also.

Back to the Toad, and there is some stattage also of course…

  • O’Meara is in fine form, which is no mean feat given the size of his string these days. 18/81, 30p, +66 SP, in the last 14 days alone, 57% rivals beaten, and they’re going along better than I can remember for quite some time. All his runners in the next few days could be worth a glance.
  • David O’Meara /Ayr / handicaps / horse aged 3 / Danny T riding… in last two years, 5/17, 10p, +18 SP, 2/6,3p in class 6.

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As a final thought… if you do like diving into Flat races but sometimes don’t have a clue where to begin, we really could be doing a lot worse than just starting with Will Buick and Oisin Murphy’s rides – they’re clearly throwing everything at the championship, their agents trying to get them as many winning rides as possible. Tom M and Hollie D not a bad starting place either, and you could argue that just focussing on those four through a week isn’t a bad strategy, as a ‘way in’ to looking at their mounts/races closer. That’s only if you were stuck for ideas of course 🙂 They’re all riding superbly this season, although no shock there. Of the ‘lesser’ lights, David Probert’s star is starting to shine a bit brighter, he must be full of confidence at the moment, and Marco Ghiani is clearly just a very good rider also.

Last week, I think Buick and Murphy between them were… 16/55, 30p, +31 BFSP. You can’t just back them blind of course and do have to pick them but they do have 167 winners between them in 2021 so far at a 20% win SR, =152 BFSP, BFAE 1.13, 13% above market expectations.

Those six jockeys mentioned have been averaging around 30 winners between them a week for the last five weeks.

On closer inspection, in 2021 to date and ignoring all all-weather rides, so just Flat turf…

  • Will Buick, Oisin Murphy, Marco G and Tom Marquand (the other two do lose a fair bit to SP, backing all)
  • 1158 rides / 239 wins / 485 places / 21% sr / +222 SP / +474 BFSP / BF AE 1.24

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Back at some point later today with some Galway and Goodwood angles.

Josh

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

11 Responses

  1. Hi Josh
    Just a quick reminder re my request for a “through the card “ at Beverley tomorrow.
    Any advice is much appreciated. Thank you in anticipation.

    1. Thanks Chris, all noted, shouldn’t be a problem, i’ll try and get something posted by this evenings post/part 1.
      Josh

  2. 2 year old races…..Not a lot of quality or numbers around for the next two days, including in the USA……today there are five class 5 races and tomorrow (Tuesday) over at Bev and Yarmouth the same C5 races….the quality is at Goodwood with the G2 at 14.25….only 7 runners so not sure I want to be involved and the other on the card is 16.45 C2….the going is described as soft, so that could mean anything up to heavy and if more rain is forecast then that would put any involvement in doubt, though will preview the race…..we shall see…..

    …………over in the USA still an ongoing experiment and have been doing more research on the tracks I want to be involved with Saratoga, Gulf Stream, Del Mar and Santa Anita, looking like the main tracks to focus on, dipping into Woodbine (Canadian track), Keeneland, Belmont and others if they have interesting two year old races……..

    On the pedigree side of things, still researching …….constant learning process (like most things in the search for that elusive notion of perfection which is unattainable but what you learn along the way is the important thing) to try and get better at reading bloodlines……..

    at the moment revisiting information and looking in more depth at the female family lines, following the dams dam etc, in what is called the tail female pedigree….current research traces tail female lines to one of 43 mares that founded the breed and looking at strong female influences in stakes winners…..the most stakes wins are graded as coming from number 1 families, the next best 2, etc, and within each classification they are subdivided again 1a, 1b, etc., and so far there are about 200 branches and considering progeny inherit 50% of the genes from the dams is a major influence on the offspring which is often overlooked as the main focus is always on the sire’s influence……..

    So will be interested to see if this helps when I throw this into the mix, giving more emphasis on the dam than I have done previously……..so nothing today and back tomorrow with a look at the two better races at Goodwood for Tuesday

  3. Little joy yesterday with 2 selections out of the frame.

    Onto today:
    1pt each-way
    PACINO, 430 Ayr, 25-1 unibet (3 places), boosted to 28-1 for the win part, 25s available Paddy Power 4 places
    NAGASAKI DREAM, 25-1 888 (3 places)

    Pacino
    Took the 3 places with Unibet, if it finishes 4th it bites me on the a***. Runs off 62 today, and won off a far higher mark before. His first two runs this season have shown little promise, last of 9 and 8th last time respectively, but that 8th place at Musselburgh is working out well. From 11 runners to have run since, 4 have won, including Tommy G yesterday and 7 placed.

    Dropped to a class 6 for the first time and running on good to firm ground where 3 of his best 6 RPRS have occurred, he could give me a run for my money at a price. There looks to be loads of pace in this and it could fall apart at the end.

    Nagasaki Dream
    May well finish at the back of the TV. Poor draw in stall 10 which dents confidence, but is Racing Post Topspeed rated and has bits and pieces of form at Wolverhampton. Runs off 54 today. Last time at Wolves he ran over a mile, and weakened to be beaten 12 lengths. The time before his saddle slipped over 6 furlongs. He finished 4th over course and distance in May off a mark of 60 and his best RPR is 66 when 3rd here in March over 6 furlongs.

    I’ll look at other Wolves races later

    1. Onto later races at Wolverhampton

      1pt each-way
      SUN POWER, 705 Wolverhampton, 16-1 generally 3 places, I’ve backed with Unibet who have boosted win part to 17-1
      SHOW ME A SUNSET, 705 Wolverhampton, 22-1 generally, I’ve backed with Unibet who have boosted win part to 25-1

      Quite a nice reverse forecast here.
      Sun Power – back to last winning mark of 80. Ran 4 times at Wolverhampton and form figures are 3141. Proven form on the ground, and its record after today’s layoff is 2 wins, 4 places from 10 starts. Angus Villiers rides, his record for trainer Darryll Holland is 3 rides, 1 winner.

      Show Me A Sunset – also down to its last winning mark of 70. 1 win, a further place from 3 starts in the class, 4 out of 8 places on the ground, stepped up to 7 furlongs for the first time today by James Fanshawe.

      Good luck today folks.

  4. NA 2-40. Chantecler 50-1 £1 win, started last season 311 and is 3/24 9p over hurdles, PU on last run for the Henderson yard has since gone to Ms K Davis and has had 3 terrible runs the first 2 can be excused but was 8/8 in a similar race lto hence the price.

  5. Galway EW L15.
    Excuzio Joe 22/1 5:15 Galway 4 Places,
    Maricruz 14/1 5:45 Galway 5 Places,
    Ever A Dream 7/1 6:45 Galway 4 Places,
    Cisco Disco 10/1 4:40 Galway 4 Places,
    all bog.

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