Royal Ascot: Day 4 (complete)

DAY 4 >>>

Part 1

Qualifiers against the angles within the report above plus any trends shortlists etc

I have also detailed some ‘ratings pointers’, noting any that are top 3 on Horse Race Base Ratings (H1, H2, H3) and/or top 3 on Geegeez Speed Ratings (G1, G2, G3) These are simply there to add further context/info, to use in any way you please.

As always, don’t forget to ‘refresh’ the page to see any new content inc readers’ comments.

With any luck the below is a useful ‘way in’ or ‘starting point’ and helps you find a few winners, or help construct a placepot or the free ITV 7 game etc.

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Trainers

AOB

2.30 – Prettiest

C Cox

3.40 – Diligent Harry

3.40 – Supremacy

SMS (14/1< guide)

4.20 – Potapova

Gosden (any odds, 9/1< best)

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Jockeys

Frankie (17/2<)

2.30 – Flotus H3

3.40 – Campanelle H1

4.20- Pretty Gorgeous

Jim Crowley

5.00 – Samoot (#1, #2)

Trainer/Jockey Combos

3.40 – Campanelle H1

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Big Race Trends

5pm – The Sandringham Stakes

Stats & Trends

Looking at a profile of having placed (inc wins) at least once last two stars, 1+ places (inc wins) this season and trainer only having one runner in the race would point to 10/13 and if upholding would point to six…

Glesga Gal, Create Belief H2, Samoot, Teodolina, She Do, Professional Widow

Trainers (to have won race/with runners)

• Kestenna
• Teodolina
• Star Of Emaraaty

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5.35 – The Duke of Edinburgh Stakes

A profile of being aged 4 or 5, running at same distance or down in distance from last run and having placed on last start, leaved 11/13 (11/54 runners, 26p, +56 BFSP) and if upholding would point to just four…

Quickthorn, Aadeey, Zabeel Champion H1, Valyrian Steel H2

Running in a class 2 LTO is a positive (rather than a neg for the others given placed stats), and only Zabeel Champion did that LTO

Trainers (to have won race/with runners)

• Quickthorn
• Tritonic H3, Raymond Tusk, Scarlet Dragon
• Grand Bazaar
• Zabeel Champion H1
• Sam Cooke

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Part 2

Well, a tough week so far even for my TV change budget which is getting rather low now. A smattering of decent runs/ places but no winners of note yet from any of my musings. I won’t do a ‘through the card’ again this week, especially with the weather as it is, but will focus back on the handicaps, forever a glutton for punishment…

5pm

Create Belief (7/1) WON – one from the trends shortlist and I haven’t really over-thought it – she relishes the mud, is trained in Ireland (no bad thing when the rain is falling – or is that just Cheltenham?!) and on what these have achieved to date, will handle the conditions better than anything else – that’s only one part of the puzzle of course and she may get marooned up the middle, but at 7s (8.6 betfair exchange) enough there for a mild interest. This race is obviously packed with unexposed types and horses who’ve never raced on soft+ may well relish it.

Prado (25-28/1) (38s+ betfair) UP – well I haven’t really over-thought this one either- Jamie Spencer on the straight 8f here – a micro to keep nibbling at EW until the day he retires, and they usually fly in at a price. This one has form on soft (going forward at the line at Goodwood last season), whether she handles whatever it is come race time is anyone’s guess, but she’s drawn in the right place and has shaped as if a frenetic big field gallop could be right up her street. She has course experience and I’ll trust in Jamie to get her into the top 6 for a bit of fun. Of course she may get stuck in the mud, and it’s a 3YO only handicap – hard to tell who will be good enough/has enough in hand.

5.35

Win O’Clock (11/1) UP – this one loves the mud and will have no problem with conditions, and he’s still open to progress. The booking of Buick caught the eye and i’d be mildly surprised if he’s not staying on near the end here. He arrives in form and will handle heavy/stay better than most of these, on the evidence to date. 11s looks big enough.

Mirann (10/1) – 4th An Irish raider for Johnny Murtagh again, as is Create Belief above – I think this one stays ok but again will certainly handle/relish ground conditions and some of his form reads well enough. This trip could unlock a bit more (staying on over 13f last season although on good) and at double figures I thought worth a nibble.

Zabeel Champion (12/1) 3rd – my final poke for a bit of fun, one from the trends shortlist. A winning machine, he stays well and handles soft. Whether he handles what could be very heavy come race time, who knows. It looks like he’s been saved for this and Johnston knows what’s needed to win it. His horse is tough, loves winning, battling, and I doubt will be too far away if handling the ground. Something may have more in hand but he could keep climbing the ranks, and he’s 12s.

Those were the three for me. I do think Quickthorn WON could do something special here, I think he will handle the ground as well as anything (based on his action/trainer’s thoughts) and he could have more in hand than those three above – but he’s 4/1, and for my £2.50 bets or so, that’s a bit short and I’d feel dirty putting one up at that price- but I can see why he’s fav and being supported. He will need some luck from that draw though, hopefully he gets stuck wide, blocked behind a wall of horses or has to circle the field on the turn for home – I suppose that alone makes that price short enough. His race could be won or lost in the first 2/3 furlongs.

6.10

Mo Celita – 6/1 5th– I haven’t really looked in depth at this race (so will probably get what I deserve, for all deeper thinking didn’t help me much yesterday) but she’s the only horse with more than one win on soft/heavy (2/2) and the only horse with a win on heavy (1/1) – only three of them have ever races on such a surface and come 6.10 you’d think it will be a cut up bog. She’s a winning machine with a progressive profile, and with the champ on. Given the fact she’s the only one proven in conditions, that price looks just about ok. Clearly something may step forward for encountering heavy for the first time, but i’ll stick with the one proven in conditions. I can’t really see her out the first 5, famous last words.

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So, six horses there for me to spray my afternoon budget on, another £20 or so from my hobby/interest pile – but it is Royal Ascot after all and I can’t help myself. That’s an amount personal to me that I won’t even bat an eyelid at if they all fall out the back of the tv. I don’t mind treating this week with my ‘hobby’ mindset and it’s always been a week i’ve struggled to have any strong views on. However, hopefully I’ve something to cheer above.

Best of luck with any bets.
Josh