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ROYAL ASCOT REPORT: READ HERE >>>
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Part 1
Qualifiers against the angles within the report above plus any trends shortlists etc
I have also detailed some ‘ratings pointers’, noting any that are top 3 on Horse Race Base Ratings (H1, H2, H3) and/or top 3 on Geegeez Speed Ratings (G1, G2, G3) These are simply there to add further context/info, to use in any way you please.
As always, don’t forget to ‘refresh’ the page to see any new content inc readers’ comments.
With any luck the below is a useful ‘way in’ or ‘starting point’ and helps you find a few winners, or help construct a placepot or the free ITV 7 game etc.
A 20/1>33/1 winner was the highlight from the qualifiers on Day 1 for John Gosden, a few places, the odd close one, and plenty still running. We shall see if any gold buried in those below on Day 2…
Let’s crack on..
Trainers
AOB
2.30 – Yet
5.35 – Amalfi Coast G3
C Cox
2.30 – Get Ahead
SMS (14/1< guide)
3.40 – Queen Power H2
4.20 – Sangarius
Gosden
4.20 – Lord North G3
Jockeys
Frankie (17/2<)
2.30- Artos
3.05 – Stowell
3.40 – Indie Angel
4.20 – Lord North G3
5.35 – Ruthin
Jim Crowley
3.40 – Lavenders Blue (#1)
5.00 – Haqeeqy (#1)
5.35 – Silks Pass (#1)
Trainer/Jockey Combos
2.30 – Mas Poder
3.40 – Onassis
5.35 – Boonie
5.35 – Ruthin
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Big Race Trends
5pm – The Royal Hunt Cup
Stats & Trends
Always an easy puzzle to solve! Looking at a profile of being 6th or lower in the weights (exc any jockey claims), 2-9 runs over the distance, 3+ career wins, 0-3 wins in handicaps, and having run in a handicap on last start.. would point to 10/13 winners, (10/82 runners, 20p, +198 BFSP) … and would point to a longer list of ten…
Astro King, Brunch H3, Grove Ferry H1 G2, Layfayette H2, Fame And Acclaim, Lucander, Beat Le Bon, Ascension, Cliffs of Capri, Fantasy Believer G3
Running in stalls 1-3 and up the middle in 12-20 has historically been a negative, which from that list above is a question for Beat Le Bon and Cliffs of Capri.
Running on a straight track LTO or Right-handed has historically been a positive, rather than a neg for LH (straight track LTO makes logical sense as being a positive, RH may well be the nature of some prep races etc), but in any case, those to tick that box… Layfayette, Lucander, Fame And Acclaim, Ascension, Cliffs of Capri.
1-4 places (inc wins) in handicaps has been a positive and applied to the trends profile above leaves 9/13 (9/47 runners,16 places) and if that upholds would point to just two…
Astro King and Grove Ferry
If only solving this race is as easy as that… but you never know! Maybe it will be.
So, use those as you please, a handier starting point in which to dive in, if upholding of course.
Trainers (to have won race prev 13 years/with runners)
- Haqeeqy / Magical Morning
- Maydanny
- Cliffs of Capri
- Real World
- Fantasy Believer G3
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Part 2
A look at the Royal Hunt Cup below. As always it looks a minefield. With my eyes on some of the pointers above and horses at a double figure price, I’m not sure I can resist an interest EW nibble on Maydanny (20s) given the pace maps as per the video/his draw, and Brunch (14s), who looks to be in the right place. He may need some luck and the track is an unknown, but he’s hardy, tough, has decent big field form, and I think may be a ‘staying 8f’ horse who may find this CD ideal. Dods doesn’t usually tilt at windmills with his Ascot runners. At a big big price, 66/1 or so, I thought Revich may outrun his odds – there’s a niggle on proper fast ground (as it is for a few in here) and I’m on the fence whether 8f here is a bit too far, but he is 66s, has course form, 1st blinkers (been wearing a visor) and Hayley Turner does ride this straight track well. It’s not impossible she can sit fairly handy without using up too much gas. We shall see. I’ll throw £1 EW to satisfy my curiosity! I could see Astro King running a big race but he’s a single figure price now and in races like this that’s short for me. Grove Ferry could run a big one also, but for him a question over quick ground also. Will this race be dominated by the high numbers? Anyway, it’s highly likely I haven’t mentioned the winner and if you’ve a strong view in this race I doff my cap. The video below may help, inc the pace map which looks informative. On paper anyway.
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That’s all from me for Day 2, best of luck with any bets. Who do you fancy?
6 responses
Great analysis of the Hunt Cup
For Astro King and Grove Ferry, both ran LH last time out and I don’t fancy either
The horse to take from your short list is LUCANDER who passes one of my keys: ran in the previous Cambridgeshire.
It is amazing how often the Hunt cup winner ran in the Cambridgeshire and I believe only he and Bell Rock did.
There is a strong stat too about running over 9 furlongs or more. Think that stamina is vital and the pure milers struggle to stay.
Lucander has had 4 runs at a mile, 3 wins and a very close 3rd. Form of that race at Haydock is exceptional. he was giving weight to the 1st, 2nd and 4th
yet two of them are now rated higher than him. I have him able to run 109+
My only concern is stall 11 which becomes 10 after the reserves come out
But 22/1 8 PLACES at SkyBet is just asking to be hoovered up on LUCANDER
ps REALLY appreciate the free blog posts Josh!!
Best of luck Rick – well, I wouldn’t call it great analysis, we shall see how they go! As always you can make some sort of case for more than half the field in this race!
I get what you’re saying about Lucander – if he was drawn high and a guaranteed frenetic pace, I may well have been tempted. I did wonder if 8f on quick ish turf may happen too quickly for him, and I really think the lows 1-10 could get marooned, if not those drawn even higher. I didn’t see where the pace was really coming from the far side, and a chance the stand side will ride quicker again – maybe they’ll put more water on this side now and it will switch around!
But he is a big price, and I could see a big run from him. He has the handicapping class and won’t be done for stamina here.
GL
Josh
In AheadontheFlat Ralph Beckett said Lucander is suited by big field handicaps and a end to end gallop. And he wouldn’t be against dropping him back to a mile this year so the Royal Hunt Cup could be a target.
Comment from Dav, posted on Day 1, moved across…
Hi Josh
Hunt Cup
Like the look of Fame and Acclaim,has run some good races in Ireland when trained by Joseph O’Brien,I’m going by RP comment lto in Ireland,now trained by Les Eyre,good trainer in his day,shrewd knows how to get them ready,and think likes a touch with the bookies,good draw Jockey only ridden twice at Ascot,and Trainer has only had 15 runners there,not come down from the North to look at the finery @ 40/1 with Betfair he is well worth a punt EW 6 places would bet with Sky not guaranteeing best odds and they have him @ 28s when last looked,my other 2 for Race if everything drops right drawn 15 No 15,Oisin Murphy up is Matthew Flinders stable in great form,and Brunch another Northern Challenger and Shrewdie Trainer Michael Dodds that’s it here endreth the lesson
Many thanks for this FREE site Josh.
I’ve not joined only because I said when we had our kids, that summer would be for family!
Ironically now, as teenagers their stuck in their room or I just don’t see them!
You highlighted the Grove Ferry race a few weeks ago as “one to watch” ( Revich was in it! ) and you put the case so well, I backed him @ 25/1 for this race.
I’m duly promising to take up a membership should he win today.
Love to actually, as it is a great community site with an extremely hard working front man.
Good luck all today.
Ha, thanks Mal,
Well, no one ever need explain why they haven’t joined! My approach/content etc isn’t for everyone but i’m in a ‘happy place’ in terms of structure/said content now I think (as always then fine tuning/striving for improvement), and where my tipping focus is (the 3m chasers mainly!) – and that’s freed up so much mental capacity/energy for stuff as per above/other ‘stats chat’ /videos/engagement etc in the members posts – there’s a service/approach for everyone out there in this great game (inc just reading my free content which is fine) and those who want reams of tips only (a horse’s name, don’t care for the rest/stats/chat/community/finding your own winners also etc) won’t find much solace here, but plenty of good folk around who do just that.
But racing is much more enjoyable when experiences are shared with others, even online! And I think we do that better than most places on here, for all i’m rather biased!
And just joining for the winter is fine, you’re not alone in wanting to keep the summer to a minimum racing wise, and of course who doesn’t most enjoy the muddy winter game, ahem.
Grove Ferry simply must have another handicap in him somewhere based on that Chester form – if he handles this sort of test (and more so the ground, that’s the big niggle I think) should go well. He was 8s/9s in places last night but is now getting to a more acceptable price on the machine. He ticks all my stats/trends and if this was good to soft I may have waded in plenty. Ground more of an unknown though, so here’s hoping for you. But if he doesn’t go close on his next three starts somewhere, i’d be surprised.
best of luck
Josh