Royal Ascot: Day 1 (part 1&2)

ROYAL ASCOT REPORT: READ HERE >>>

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Part 1

Qualifiers against the angles within the report above plus any trends shortlists etc

I have also detailed some ‘ratings pointers’, noting any that are top 3 on Horse Race Base Ratings (H1, H2, H3) and/or top 3 on Geegeez Speed Ratings (G1, G2, G3) These are simply there to add further context/info, to use in any way you please.

As always, don’t forget to ‘refresh’ the page to see any new content inc readers’ comments.

With any luck the below is a useful ‘way in’ or ‘starting point’ and helps you find a few winners, or help construct a placepot or the free ITV 7 game etc.

Let’s crack on..

Trainers

AOB

3.05 – The Acropolis 7/1 UP

J & T Gosden

4.20 – Mostahdaf (9/1< best) 8/1 UP

6.10 – Amitiyaz (9/1< best) 20/1 WON 22/1 > 33/1

SMS

4.20 – Maximal (14/1< guide) 22/1 UP

Jockeys

Frankie (17/2< SP)

2.30 – Palace Pier H1 G2 2/5 WON 2/5> 2/7

3.05 – Tolstoy H2 10/1 UP

3.40 – Extravagant Kid 6/1 3rd 18/1

4.20 – Thunder Moon 8/1 UP

5.35 – Forest Of Dean 5/1 UP

Jim Crowley

3.40 – Battaash (#1 & 2) H1 G1 7/4 UP

4.20 – Mostahdaf (#2) 8/1 UP

5.35 – Dawaam (#2) 22/1 UP

Trainer/Jockey Combos

3.40- Battaash H1 G1 7/4 UP

5.00 – M C Muldoon 5/1 2nd

6.10 – Saldier 3/1 UP

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Big Race Trends

5pm – The Ascot Stakes

Applying my 13/13 stats from the report above leaves a rather long list of 13. Further applying the 12/13 stats leaves 10 winners from the last 13 renewals (10/55 runners, 19p, +73 BFSP, inc the last six) and IF upholding (always a big if of course) would point to the following six horses…

Coeur De Lion G3 (last year’s winner), Elysian Flame H2, Rochester House G1, Dalton Highway, Lucky Deal, Island Brave

Trainers (to have won race in prev 13 years/with runners)

• M C Muldoon, Rayapour, Royal Illusion
• Coeur De Lion
• Reshoun G3, Mancini

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Part 2

In the video below I have a flick through the 5pm. I’ve mainly stuck to the trends above and at the odds was most tempted with interest EW nibbles on last year’s winner, Coeur De Lion (6th) and Mick Easterby’s Elysian Flame (3rd). I thought Mark Johnston’s Lucky Deal UP was of mild interest at a big price, IF the 1st blinkers work – and until he runs, who knows. On recent evidence he needs them to work but at his best he may nab a place, and then who knows. Not on the trends, old friend Just Hubert UP who I never got right last season – backing him when losing, leaving him when winning! Inc his 25/1 win at Goodwood. Urgh. Still, he has proven flat stamina over this trip, like Coeur De Lion, and that may count for plenty. The yard are in fine form and there may be more to come this season. So, maybe for interest those four would be for me, with the two in bold my main hopes. Maybe Rochester House will get a bit closer to King’s than he did last year, although not beaten far, or Dalton Highway for Dermot Weld – I was a bit put off by his lightly raced profile in recent times, but maybe i’m reading too much into that. This trip is an unknown on the flat but he stays 16/17f well at his best. Maybe he does just want this better ground. I could see a big run from him, for all this mark/class poses a question also. We shall see. Many of the Irish raiders, inc a couple of Willie’s and Emmets are very lightly raced on the flat – that means they’re unexposed/more to come, but this is a big test for a flat horse and it could be it’s too much at this stage of their careers? Maybe. Or maybe not. Anyway, it’s the first of the ultra competitive Royal Ascot handicaps and hopefully the trends do their job and my main hopes go ok.

I did also have a quick flick through the 18.10 and thought Arthurian Fable 4th looked interesting at an EW price.

Best of luck with any of your fancies…

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I won’t be doing a ‘through the card’ – I’m much happier with the handicaps and thought i’d just be guessing too much in the other races, for all I hope some of the stats above do ok. I may have the odd dabble through the week but will mainly try and solve the handicaps, which of course are the easiest puzzles of the week!! 🙂

Having said that, I suppose when looking at the 3.05 I thought Gisburn was interesting. He hasn’t done much wrong and was the only horse in the race who I thought may try and make all, and it wasn’t impossible he stays there. I suspect connections will be disappointed if he’s not in the top 4 but it is a 2YO race and having strong views in these races can be dangerous. Everything is in form, open to bundles of improvement and will be trying their best. And some will lose their race before they enter the stalls. I could also see the Gosden horse, Dhabab, running a big race. He was impressive at Leicester given where he came from, fast ground clearly holds no fears and the trainer is 1/5,2p in the race – he doesn’t run many, so maybe its significant. He also runs Tolstoy. I don’t know if Frankie had the choice or not, given Rab keeps the ride on the more fancied one here, but who knows.

That’s all for Day 1 from me.

If you’ve any fancies or thoughts, do post away in the comments below. The more the merrier…

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