Below you can find an update on May, which in a way signalled the start of a new ‘year’, it being the start of the jumps season and it was a good point in which to post the flat stats regularly etc. There’s a spreadsheet below which tracks some of the stats qualifiers (section 2 & 3 of the daily posts), my tips from 1st May since I refocussed on 2m7f+ jumps races, and i’m also tracking the micro angles I research for ‘Flat Festivals’. Following the spreadsheet there’s a few thoughts etc…
33 bets / 5 wins / 12 places (inc wins, inc x6 2nds) / -5.25 (9am advised/non bog)
I’m as happy as I will be with a losing month and more positives than negatives, in my head anyway! I’m enjoying the renewed focus on the 2m7f+ jumpers (c4+), and mainly handicap chases, for all that Summer Jumping always presents different challenges – a few more mediocre/unpredictable horses maybe and a case of being even more cautious esp at the C4 level.
My staking was so so at times… well, if i’d have just put ‘1 point win’ on everything, I’d have had around +3.25 back on those figures. There were three frustrating 2nd places, but that’s just part of the game. On another day I think Blow By Blow could/should have won at Hexham, Mr Mafia may have clung on and so could William of Orange. A game of fine margins but that’s around a +24/25 point swing. Four of those bets (all unplaced, -4) were over 2m7f+ hurdles which will be few and far between at this time of year, and picky with them in the main winter season, for all last season they did well enough. But that does mean the chasers had a 41% win/place strike rate in May, and if I can keep that up the profit pile will only start heading in one direction again.
As always there were some frustrations, which in part is the nature of the beast, but it’s about trying to make fewer errors. There were x3 glaring omissions from chasers that I made late, incorrect, decisions to leave out which would have made quite the month given their odds. ‘Missed winners’ will forever be part of the game though, but with any luck i’ll miss fewer of them moving forwards. There were a few disappointments and some winners which I don’t think I was ever finding given my approach. I will always find that frustrating (i think I should be landing on every value priced winner) but I’m better at accepting; while momentarily pondering if I missed anything. Summer Jumping C4s can throw up some odd results.
I’m happy enough with the daily stats qualifiers – the Summer Jumps in particular are finding plenty of winners. The Flat stats are doing ‘so so’ and could do with a burst soon, which may or may not come. Time will tell. Hopefully they’re a useful ‘starting point’ and i’ll be trying to get my ‘star ratings’ picks (my own subjective assessment of their chance) into profit before long.
The Flat Festival micros have been firing out winners as per the spreadsheet above. Over the Guineas Meeting, Chester May Meeting and York Dante Festival:
65 qualifiers / 11 wins / 24 places (inc wins) / -5.33 Betfair Starting Price
Again, they’re meant to provide a different ‘way in’ to these Flat Festivals and with any luck will keep firing out winners in time. There’s Royal Ascot, Glorious Goodwood, July Cup Meeting, York Ebor, and so on. I’ll be trying to find a handful of trainer/jockey/sire angles for them all.
The ‘big race trends’ shortlists have been doing their job also, highlighting plenty of winners, so again, a useful ‘way in’ if nothing else.
With my ‘tipping’ focus as above, it has freed up some time/mental energy to a) try and improve all of the content as above, inc more videos etc, and b) adding more useful ad hoc musings on various flat horses, including useful stats/info both for the day and moving forwards.
They’ve been doing ok at highlighting winners. I tried to ‘up my game’ a few days back by improving the ‘stats chat’ and directing more firmly towards horses in which to have a closer look at.
27th May: 2/7,4p +11 points (1 point win)
28th May: 3/8,4p, +8.5
1st June: 2/6, 2p, +6
So, something for me to build on there. Those additions are meant to be an enjoyable/interesting read and they’re not tipping pieces, for all the aim is to highlight some horses to do with as you please, and with any luck some winners.
So, overall I’m happy enough with the month of May from a content point of view. I’ll obviously be working hard to get my jumps tips into profit again, while hopefully providing plenty of useful content, mainly on the flat, to use as you please.
As always, any questions etc do fire away,
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