Free Members Daily Post: 20/05/21 (complete)

Tips x2, stats quals, special offer

1.Tips

2. Summer Jumps Angles (Summer Stats Report to follow Friday 21st )

3. Flat Turf Angles

4.Other/Updates (Punting Pointers HERE>>> )

(Members’ User Guide/Info : READ HERE>>>)

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1.Tips

x2 pokes from me today, as of 9am, write up at the bottom…

#1 – 4.00 MR – Lord Getaway 1.5 points win – 9/2 (bet365, WH) 4/1 (gen) UP -1.5, no excuse, just not good enough and one to leave alone now I think.

#2 – 4.00 MR – Sigurd – 0.5 point win – 11/2 (gen) UP -1, as above.

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2. Summer Jumps Angles

(all qualifiers = 7/46, 16p, -8.7) (star rating ‘ ♦ ‘ = 1/7, 3p, 0)

2.55 MR – River Frost 33/1 UP -1

3.30 MR – Scartare 11/2 ♦ UP 11/2, -1, travelled well, found ziltch from 3 out.

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3. Flat Turf Angles

(all qualifiers = 4/20, 4p, -10.45) (star rating ‘ ♦ ‘ = 0/2, 0p, -2)

5.55 Sand – Zinc White H3 G1 7/4 WON 7/4> 11/10

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4.Other/Updates

PLEASE NOTE:

This is the final ‘members daily post’ that will be free to air for a while (probably until the last week of October), with the paywall returning from Friday’s post.

If you’d like to stay around, you can find out more by clicking the ‘become a member’ link HERE>>> . Obviously I’ve made the ‘Summer Season’ ticket a bit cheaper than the winter version and it works out at around £4.80 a week (5 months, through to 21st October), which I think is decent value, but then I am biased and it’s my job to prove it. The season ticket is a fair saving against the monthly option, but the choice is yours 🙂 (including just absorbing the free content of course, of which they’ll be bits and pieces) There’s a 30 day refund period after your initial payment so if you don’t enjoy the next month or so, just email me and I’ll refund it no questions asked.

If you’ve been reading for the last few weeks, or longer, it’s basically what you’ve seen, on repeat, and with any luck finding a few more winners and always striving to do better. The daily approach – jumps tips – stats quals – star ratings other daily stats chat/pointers, the ‘Flat Festivals’, Big Race Trends (C2/Heritage handicaps on the Flat), the chat /engagement down below, videos etc. Hopefully I’ll see you inside your club very soon.

Important: If you’ve ever been a member before or created an account, if you use the same email address on sign up, your old password should still work. You can of course use the ‘lost password’ function and you know where to find me if any problems. Do ensure the email address is typed in correctly when joining. New members will receive a welcome email, and there’s various links at the top of this post, and my ‘Summer Stats’ report will be published in Friday’s post also, and i’ll then flag which micros the daily qualifiers hit etc.

I think that’s all for now.

Take a look at the sign up page HERE>>>

See you on the inside soon : ) Josh

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My tips write up…

Lord Getaway – could the real Lord Getaway please step forward – if he does I think this lot are toast and 4s is just about clinging on across the board having been 9/2 at around 8am, so I won’t quibble over 1/2 a point. I think he’s the best handicapped horse in the race and has the most class of any of these, based on various efforts which i’ll get to. He arrives in form, going on at the line LTO and I suspect he may come on for it a tad. He travelled and jumped with enthusiasm. The yard are going well enough, plenty placing in recent days, 0/5,3p last 14, 71% rivals beaten, the jockey gets on well with him and the horse is lightly raced, this just his 10th chase (1/9p).

The only time i’ve tipped him was 6 starts back at Ludlow in November 2019, if my memory is correct, off 117 (110 today, jockey 5lb claim also) in a decent C3 over 26f in soft, where he stayed on well to the line but just bumped into an on song Bobo Mac, who is a solid 130 horse and didn’t run too badly in this year’s Welsh National (6th, beaten 9l). He had Marble Moon behind him there off 125 who hacked up 10 days back having dropped to 100. Shanroe in Milan and Head To The Stars also ran in that race and won subsequently. That race was much better than this one. He’s been a bit hit and miss since, but in Jan 2020 ran a decent 3rd in a 3m C4 handicap hurdle at Doncaster, staying on well to the line. That race has produced a few subsequent winners also. There’s plenty of substance to those two runs, and he’s a got a ‘running on’ 3rd in the C2 Durham National to his name which was his run before the Ludlow effort. He arrives in form having ran well when last seen 49 days ago (117 RPR, a 121 in that Ludlow race), his first start since July 2020. He’s clearly not the easiest to train but I’ve a suspicion this may be his Gold Cup. He will relish every yard of this trip, could well be the strongest stayer in this line up, and I think he could just have too much for this lot. He also won’t mind if the heavens open, which is a possibility. At 4s I was happy to wade in here. I think this race is all about whether he runs his race. if he doesn’t, or if I’ve got him very wrong…

Sigurd – well my last two 1/2 point win ‘savers’ have won, so that’s a boost for connections 🙂 At 11/2 or so (appears to be on the drift) I wanted something on, just because this new trip looked well worth a go on a few of his efforts this season and with another 100 yards he’d have glided past Bafana Blue at Wetherby when last seen, off this mark. He is a bit of a character I think, he can drop himself out (i’m not sure if outpaced, or he just mentally switches off) but Brian usually gets a good tune out of him and he was able to hold a position here earlier in the season over 24f, before running on. All his wins this season have been in C5s but he used to be rated higher when with Jonjo and has a C4 hurdle win to his name. And that Wetherby effort suggests this class/oppo may not be beyond him. He will want the heavens to open and he could be in trouble if they don’t, but the track could get a fair bit of rain, we shall see. It won’t matter to Lord G what it does, but it will for this one. I just thought he may be flying home late here, over what is now 3m 4.5f with rail movements and if it goes softer, on watered ground, may take some getting. He’s shaped as if worth a go over a marathon trip, for all it is a stamina unknown beyond 25.5f. Some of his races have worked well and his last two RPRs (113, 116) suggest he remains in form, that 116 his 3rd best of all time in his 42 race career to date, so he’s clearly been thriving at times this season. I decided he’d be ‘the’ annoying one without anything on, so we shall see how he goes. I don’t think he’ll have the class of Lord G, or maybe not the stamina, but if he falters he could be the one to beat.

Of the rest… well the ‘next best’ / main danger could well be Bafana Blue. I suppose Sigurd’s effort over 24f against him at Wetherby leaned me towards the one above and the fact i’m still not 100% sold on Bafana’s stamina, even more so if this goes softer. (for all his 26f+ stamina is far more proven than most of these) He did run well in the Highland’s National, and a repeat of his 3rd there may simply be good enough, but he was outstayed on that occasion and looked out on his feet after the last – for all he was bang there at that point and this is 2f shorter. He’s crept up the weights again but hasn’t run a bad race the last three times, inc at Ayr where he was staying on again. Whether those big efforts catch up with him, we shall see. I will cope with him winning without a 1/2 on more so than Sigurd who was the instinct call having watched a few of his runs back. Lugging 11-10 around over this trip in softer ground won’t be easy either.

I did think it was between those three, or in any case the rest have plenty more questions.

Minella V has yet to win beyond 22f, has a stamina questions, keeps placing recently and all at Class 5 level. I couldn’t quite work out how he was put in Fav here, off 95. No idea what i’ve missed, but that just looked odd. I’ll happily oppose him and if he shows the stamina and the class, so be it at this price. Very First Time – He’s 0/9,0p over 26f+ so clearly has a stamina niggle and hardly arrives in fine form. He is inconsistent. One of those Skelton horses the odds compilers get scared of, put them in too short and wait for the market to adjust/the signals. This would be some effort off 11-12 and he’s usually held up also, is inconsistent and i’m not sure he will get home. Again, I could be wrong but at what was 4s or so, now 11/2, I could leave him, no problem. Well Smitten has a stamina question for me also, all winning form at 19-20f and I suppose I like to see staying on efforts over 25f/26f when going into a race like this. I’m really not sure why he improves on recent efforts either, this his 8th start of 2021, which will catch up with him at some point soon. Maybe it already has. There should be stronger stayers here, and better handicapped rivals.

Hedgeinator – ran well in 2nd behind Game Line at Newton Abbot three starts back, who’s franked it since, but he hasn’t done much the last twice and was tailed off 12 days ago. I don’t know why/how he improves on those two runs unless now aged 11, he just has good and bad days. Tom O’Brien gets a go so I suppose he could get a tune out of him. Still, he’s 11, and his last win was in January 2018 and even those efforts were weak class 4s. He has a slight stamina question also, for all he has form over 26f. I was happy to leave him here, that 2nd three starts back his only decent run in seven starts this season. Not for me.

I think that’s the lot. Pace wise… Hedge may go forward, Bafana can be up there. I’d hope over this trip that Lord G would slot in behind them, not too far back, and that Sigurd may be able to hold a handier position also, if the rain comes. Well Smitten, Minella V and Very First Time are usually all more patiently ridden.

Can Lord Getaway return to the form he showed at Ludlow, and build on his LTO effort. That is the question, and we will find out soon enough. Or have I got Bafana wrong. Still, if the winners keep appearing on my shortlists of 2 or 3, we will do just fine. GL

Scartare – I gave him a star rating from the trainer stats quals, at around 11/2, 6s, which may prove foolish given he’s never won a race as yet and has had a few goes! However, some of his recent efforts read well on some figures, he’s gone close a few times, this is a quite awful race I thought/they all have questions/it could fall apart, and he is 0/8, 7 places after breaks of 60+ days, ever so consistent. Can he get his head in front today? I thought i’d have a dabble with my much smaller ‘star rating stake’ to find out.

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

19 Responses

  1. Hi Josh, your sign up page just asks if I want to join the waiting list. No info about prices. Is that correct? I thought I would be directed to the paywall.

    1. Hmm, the page should have updated unless I’ve failed to click the right buttons! Let me check. It should go to a ‘sales’ page of sorts. Maybe you need to refresh the page/site if it hasn’t in last few hours. Strange

        1. Josh

          That link and the other 2 still take you to the waiting list so I’ve just stuck my name down and wait for itself to sort itself out

          1. that is so odd, on both my mobile and online/lap top/computer the link is heading to the page it should. What a head scratcher, no idea why its working my end and apparently for no one else but i’ll get to the bottom of it
            Josh

  2. Gents, not sure what’s going on with the link, i’ve had a few other people test it and its going to the correct page. Not sure if an issue with needing to update/refresh site your end and then it will come to life, esp if its been open for a few hours. No idea. The link below is straight to the sign up/order form…

    https://racingtoprofit.thrivecart.com/seasonticket/

    Josh

  3. Only just kept my streak intact with 2 places yesterday and a tiny profit of £3-65. on to today and a trip to Market Rasen.
    1-45. Head High 80-1 5p, has had an injury hit career and returned to a track just over 5 weeks ago in the race Oasis Prince came 3rd, was nursed around that day and after proving fitness i think we will see a marked improvement today. when last fully fit he did win a maiden hurdle off a mark of 113 runs today off 94.
    2-55. River Frost 33-1 4p , won a C3 chase off 125 last august and races today over hurdles off his lowest mark ever 114, was considered good enough 4 years ago to take his chance in a couple of C1’s and won a C3 off 133.
    3-30. Dallas Cowboy 28-1, re-united with Emma Smith-Chaston who seems to get the best out of him and runs off a very handy mark.
    finally one at Lingfield that follows the same trend.
    2-45. Great Hall 16-1, massive fall from grace but is fit from hurdling and on a day if biggies why not.
    stakes reflect the risk so just £1 ew singles and a 10p ew L15

  4. Josh i’m hoping your going to tackle the 4-00 at Market Rasen, on my point scoring system Bafana Blue came out on top so i’ll be very interested in your opinion.

    1. Hi Martin, I won’t be putting you off him, he made my shortlist of 3, and i’ve gone with the other two! I dare say one of us has the winner, best of luck, although not too much! 🙂 Josh

  5. from my 6 selections yesterday, 2 non runners then looking like a wipeout until Flaming Spear nabbed a 4th place at 33-1.

    Unbeknown to me, Martin has put 2 of these up already, lets see how we go on with these,

    all 1pt each-way
    RIVER FROST, 255 Market Rasen, 33-1, Skybet Enhanced places
    DALLAS COWBOY, 330 Market Rasen, 28-1
    SECRET MELODY, 330 Market Rasen, 28-1
    TILSWORTH ROSE, 455 Lingfield, 12-1
    CATAPULT, 505 Chelmsford, 33-1 skybet 5 places
    CHOCCO STAR, 810 Chelmsford, 20-1

    River Frost – As Martin says, won off higher marks in the past. Ben Haslam’s last two runners have both won. Perhaps one for Josh but Ben looks a profitable trainer to follow in the last couple of years although you’d go a while without drinks

    Dallas Cowboy – course winner on a couple of occasions, jockey has ridden it 6 times winning twice on it, may get an easylead
    Secret Melody – visored 1st time, runs off 83 today, won off a mark of 84 at Bangot in 2020

    Tilsworth Rose – won on the turf at Lingfield, won on soft ground, runs off 49 today, won off 48 on soft in 2020. Jockey on board today has ridden it twice and won on it both times

    Catapult – bit of faith needed, but back up to 7 furlongs today, runs off 46, dotted up at Southwell over 6 furlongs and a fast run 7 furlongs may see it pick rivals off. I was toying with Crazy Spin too who won on Good Friday over course and distance but has a horrid draw

    Chocco Star – may have gone at game. Tends to miss the break/slowly away and may well do so tonight. Does have ability and dropped to 5 furlongs for first time in ages. Runs off 55, won off a mark of 54 recording a RPR of 67. Anything like a half decent break and I can see it picking rivals off in the straight.

  6. Just the each way Lucky 15 today. Yesterdays bet lost 10 points but it is up +128 points over the first seven days of the trial.

    1.45 Market Rasen, Fort De Locean.
    3.52 Lingfield, Silver Reflection .
    4.22 Lingfield, Priscilla’s Wish .
    5.10 Wolverhampton, Ile De Brehat .

    1 point each way Lucky 15 .

    Good luck Martin

  7. Up coming 2 yo races have been decimated due, in the main, by the going and there is not one race that has more than 7 runners from 153 originally declared in 7 races now down to 44 so no ew options for the next three days …on Saturday the 16.20 York has 20 declared and 18.55 Lingfield has 27 declared, so will have to wait and see how many finally run in those two races so limited options and not sure if Sunday, Monday and Tuesday will be any different if horses are pulled because of the going changes….will be very difficult to squeeze any value out of such races if this remains the case…….in today’s Sandown race, for example, from the original 19 declared only 5 are left and is hardly a betting medium with an odds on fav likely to win…so I am hoping by Thursday of next week there will be something worthwhile to put up that has some viable each way options but if this trend continues for 2 yo races because of the going then this coming week will be short of viable selections…….2 yo horses, in particular are more fragile than older hardened horses and getting the right conditions is essential if trainers are not to sour the horses first experiences of racing so fully understand the difficulties as most 2 yo are bred to race on good ground…anything with soft in the description is a negative unless the pedigree shouts stamina…soft and soft to heavy going descriptions are a negative for the vast majority of 2yo’s so unless the going changes there will probably be more non runners during the course of the next few days which limits betting options, so only limited selections, if any, will be put up……..

    I did do todays !7.25 Sandown race…but as I progressed through the runners they kept dropping away!! Beautiful Sunshine should win…the best horse in the race with the best time, with Between the Sheets having to improve 2.12 secs to beat the odds on shot…I did like Sixth Street (withdrawn today) as both the sire and the dam act on soft but obviously the trainer has decided the ground is not suitable, which is fair enough…Lucrosa, foaled April 8th ran in a C5 at Notts where Fabiosa won for us but not sure about either the dam or the sire handling the soft going., though the time of that C5 race was good and clocked 60.07 with Beautiful Sunshine clocking 59.38 in comparison, stepping up in class and has to improve to be competitive……..Shakenotstirred, I am not sure about the quality of the horse on the dam’s side ,rather than being able to handle the going…foaled on 19th. March and the dam was 0/7 but stamina in the pedigree with Galileo in the 3rd gen should see the horse staying on….Coup DE France is interesting and stamina should not be a problem though being foaled on April 1st is a disadvantage in terms of maturity….may need more time to grow …..all the contenders that are left have the short priced fav to beat in Beautiful Sunshine as the horse sets the good standard being of being above average for the class (my average time is 60.37 secs)……just a shame that he race has cut up due to the going change and there are no e/w options and relying on the race falling apart for an upset….hence no selections but if playing, hope the above was ueseful….gd lck if playing today…..

    1. Hi John, thanks for these posts. Great insight as ever. I’ve been busy with work, so not had time to comment recently. Will you be continuing them over the summer months? Cheers, Craig

      1. Hi Craig, not to speak for John but I did have a chat with him privately asking that very question and said he’d be sticking around through the summer. So unless he’s changed his mind, fingers crossed. Like you I do enjoy reading his insight, esp with my twig hopper eyes 🙂
        Josh

      2. Hi Craig…..been out and about so just saw your post…..yep, for better or worse will be posting re 2yo races though the upcoming week looks problematical due to the weather affecting the numbers actually turning up to race as look for value in e/w options which, obviously depends on the number of runners, so hostage to fortune on that front but hope to find a few races to get involved with given the above caveats….all the best and thanks for your interest…much appreciated….

        1. Thanks both. Really pleased to hear. Like you, much more of a NH man Josh, but I’d thought i’d try and pick one area of the flat to become more knowledgeable about and where there might an edge. 2 year olds is somewhere most punters/pros don’t spend too much time. John’s posts have helped with that (along with Dave Renham’s great articles on GeeGeez) and the couple of races I’ve been able to look at in detail have thrown up some interesting (on paper) bets.

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