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x2 pokes from me today, as of 9am, write up at the bottom…
#1 – 4.00 MR – Lord Getaway – 1.5 points win – 9/2 (bet365, WH) 4/1 (gen) UP -1.5, no excuse, just not good enough and one to leave alone now I think.
#2 – 4.00 MR – Sigurd – 0.5 point win – 11/2 (gen) UP -1, as above.
2. Summer Jumps Angles
(all qualifiers = 7/46, 16p, -8.7) (star rating ‘ ♦ ‘ = 1/7, 3p, 0)
2.55 MR – River Frost 33/1 UP -1
3.30 MR – Scartare 11/2 ♦ UP 11/2, -1, travelled well, found ziltch from 3 out.
3. Flat Turf Angles
(all qualifiers = 4/20, 4p, -10.45) (star rating ‘ ♦ ‘ = 0/2, 0p, -2)
5.55 Sand – Zinc White H3 G1 7/4 WON 7/4> 11/10
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If you’ve been reading for the last few weeks, or longer, it’s basically what you’ve seen, on repeat, and with any luck finding a few more winners and always striving to do better. The daily approach – jumps tips – stats quals – star ratings other daily stats chat/pointers, the ‘Flat Festivals’, Big Race Trends (C2/Heritage handicaps on the Flat), the chat /engagement down below, videos etc. Hopefully I’ll see you inside your club very soon.
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I think that’s all for now.
See you on the inside soon : ) Josh
My tips write up…
Lord Getaway – could the real Lord Getaway please step forward – if he does I think this lot are toast and 4s is just about clinging on across the board having been 9/2 at around 8am, so I won’t quibble over 1/2 a point. I think he’s the best handicapped horse in the race and has the most class of any of these, based on various efforts which i’ll get to. He arrives in form, going on at the line LTO and I suspect he may come on for it a tad. He travelled and jumped with enthusiasm. The yard are going well enough, plenty placing in recent days, 0/5,3p last 14, 71% rivals beaten, the jockey gets on well with him and the horse is lightly raced, this just his 10th chase (1/9p).
The only time i’ve tipped him was 6 starts back at Ludlow in November 2019, if my memory is correct, off 117 (110 today, jockey 5lb claim also) in a decent C3 over 26f in soft, where he stayed on well to the line but just bumped into an on song Bobo Mac, who is a solid 130 horse and didn’t run too badly in this year’s Welsh National (6th, beaten 9l). He had Marble Moon behind him there off 125 who hacked up 10 days back having dropped to 100. Shanroe in Milan and Head To The Stars also ran in that race and won subsequently. That race was much better than this one. He’s been a bit hit and miss since, but in Jan 2020 ran a decent 3rd in a 3m C4 handicap hurdle at Doncaster, staying on well to the line. That race has produced a few subsequent winners also. There’s plenty of substance to those two runs, and he’s a got a ‘running on’ 3rd in the C2 Durham National to his name which was his run before the Ludlow effort. He arrives in form having ran well when last seen 49 days ago (117 RPR, a 121 in that Ludlow race), his first start since July 2020. He’s clearly not the easiest to train but I’ve a suspicion this may be his Gold Cup. He will relish every yard of this trip, could well be the strongest stayer in this line up, and I think he could just have too much for this lot. He also won’t mind if the heavens open, which is a possibility. At 4s I was happy to wade in here. I think this race is all about whether he runs his race. if he doesn’t, or if I’ve got him very wrong…
Sigurd – well my last two 1/2 point win ‘savers’ have won, so that’s a boost for connections 🙂 At 11/2 or so (appears to be on the drift) I wanted something on, just because this new trip looked well worth a go on a few of his efforts this season and with another 100 yards he’d have glided past Bafana Blue at Wetherby when last seen, off this mark. He is a bit of a character I think, he can drop himself out (i’m not sure if outpaced, or he just mentally switches off) but Brian usually gets a good tune out of him and he was able to hold a position here earlier in the season over 24f, before running on. All his wins this season have been in C5s but he used to be rated higher when with Jonjo and has a C4 hurdle win to his name. And that Wetherby effort suggests this class/oppo may not be beyond him. He will want the heavens to open and he could be in trouble if they don’t, but the track could get a fair bit of rain, we shall see. It won’t matter to Lord G what it does, but it will for this one. I just thought he may be flying home late here, over what is now 3m 4.5f with rail movements and if it goes softer, on watered ground, may take some getting. He’s shaped as if worth a go over a marathon trip, for all it is a stamina unknown beyond 25.5f. Some of his races have worked well and his last two RPRs (113, 116) suggest he remains in form, that 116 his 3rd best of all time in his 42 race career to date, so he’s clearly been thriving at times this season. I decided he’d be ‘the’ annoying one without anything on, so we shall see how he goes. I don’t think he’ll have the class of Lord G, or maybe not the stamina, but if he falters he could be the one to beat.
Of the rest… well the ‘next best’ / main danger could well be Bafana Blue. I suppose Sigurd’s effort over 24f against him at Wetherby leaned me towards the one above and the fact i’m still not 100% sold on Bafana’s stamina, even more so if this goes softer. (for all his 26f+ stamina is far more proven than most of these) He did run well in the Highland’s National, and a repeat of his 3rd there may simply be good enough, but he was outstayed on that occasion and looked out on his feet after the last – for all he was bang there at that point and this is 2f shorter. He’s crept up the weights again but hasn’t run a bad race the last three times, inc at Ayr where he was staying on again. Whether those big efforts catch up with him, we shall see. I will cope with him winning without a 1/2 on more so than Sigurd who was the instinct call having watched a few of his runs back. Lugging 11-10 around over this trip in softer ground won’t be easy either.
I did think it was between those three, or in any case the rest have plenty more questions.
Minella V has yet to win beyond 22f, has a stamina questions, keeps placing recently and all at Class 5 level. I couldn’t quite work out how he was put in Fav here, off 95. No idea what i’ve missed, but that just looked odd. I’ll happily oppose him and if he shows the stamina and the class, so be it at this price. Very First Time – He’s 0/9,0p over 26f+ so clearly has a stamina niggle and hardly arrives in fine form. He is inconsistent. One of those Skelton horses the odds compilers get scared of, put them in too short and wait for the market to adjust/the signals. This would be some effort off 11-12 and he’s usually held up also, is inconsistent and i’m not sure he will get home. Again, I could be wrong but at what was 4s or so, now 11/2, I could leave him, no problem. Well Smitten has a stamina question for me also, all winning form at 19-20f and I suppose I like to see staying on efforts over 25f/26f when going into a race like this. I’m really not sure why he improves on recent efforts either, this his 8th start of 2021, which will catch up with him at some point soon. Maybe it already has. There should be stronger stayers here, and better handicapped rivals.
Hedgeinator – ran well in 2nd behind Game Line at Newton Abbot three starts back, who’s franked it since, but he hasn’t done much the last twice and was tailed off 12 days ago. I don’t know why/how he improves on those two runs unless now aged 11, he just has good and bad days. Tom O’Brien gets a go so I suppose he could get a tune out of him. Still, he’s 11, and his last win was in January 2018 and even those efforts were weak class 4s. He has a slight stamina question also, for all he has form over 26f. I was happy to leave him here, that 2nd three starts back his only decent run in seven starts this season. Not for me.
I think that’s the lot. Pace wise… Hedge may go forward, Bafana can be up there. I’d hope over this trip that Lord G would slot in behind them, not too far back, and that Sigurd may be able to hold a handier position also, if the rain comes. Well Smitten, Minella V and Very First Time are usually all more patiently ridden.
Can Lord Getaway return to the form he showed at Ludlow, and build on his LTO effort. That is the question, and we will find out soon enough. Or have I got Bafana wrong. Still, if the winners keep appearing on my shortlists of 2 or 3, we will do just fine. GL
Scartare – I gave him a star rating from the trainer stats quals, at around 11/2, 6s, which may prove foolish given he’s never won a race as yet and has had a few goes! However, some of his recent efforts read well on some figures, he’s gone close a few times, this is a quite awful race I thought/they all have questions/it could fall apart, and he is 0/8, 7 places after breaks of 60+ days, ever so consistent. Can he get his head in front today? I thought i’d have a dabble with my much smaller ‘star rating stake’ to find out.