2. Summer Jumps Angles (report TBC)
3. Flat Turf Angles (report TBC)
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x1 from me today, as of 9am, write up at the bottom…
#1 – 5.10 South – William Of Orange – 1 point win – 13/2 (Sky, WH) 6/1 (gen) WON 6/1 > 3/1 , +6
2. Summer Jumps Angles
(all qualifiers = 7/44, 16p, -6.7) (star rating ‘ ♦ ‘ = 1/6, 3p, +1)
2.20 Warw – Hang Tough 11/2 3rd, -1
3.30 Warw – Thecraicisninety 11/1 UP -1
4.30 Warw- Clondaw Promise H3 5/1 3rd -1
4.30 Warw – Jamessaintpatrick 12/1 UP -1
5.45 South- The Bees Knees 15/2 UP -1
3. Flat Turf Angles
(all qualifiers = 3/19, 3p, -12.2) (star rating ‘ ♦ ‘ = 0/2, 0p, -2)
5.30 Ayr – Tukhoom 7/2
A few Flat pointers/ways in…
One jockey to watch around here, and yes it’s that man, Jamie Spencer. Mr Marmite given how he generally likes to ride a horse (in part because he’s put on a lot of keen ones, rogues and horses who need to be taught how to race properly) If a hold up ride is going to annoy you, obviously don’t put any money on him! 🙂 Personally i’m a fan, especially in a big field/straight track (Ascot)… but maybe that’s why he also does very well at Yarmouth – his patient style reaping rewards when others go too hard (for all he’s very good from on the pace also). Anyway, he’s probably got the best record here of anyone.. in the last five years… all rides…
202 rides / 50 wins / 87 places (inc wins) / 25% sr / +70 SP / AE 1.27 / Impact Value 2.06 / 61% rivals beaten
If there’s one jockey to use as a ‘way in’ around here, it’s probably him. He has a fair few winners in the 8s-10s range, sometimes a bit bigger also. He’s also very picky these days and doesn’t generally go racing on Monday’s and Tuesday’s as he doesn’t need the money, can’t be bothered and doesn’t want to waste his time in low grade nonsense (his recent RP article with Lee M worth a read) .. unless David Simcock really wants him on something. He appears to have first refusal on his services these days.
And they do pretty well when teaming up at Yarmouth in the last 5 years… 52 bets / 19 wins / 27p / +38 SP
They team up with one in the 1pm who may be worth a closer look.
He’s a ‘last time out winner’ and Simock does well with those, worth noting.. 28/97, 50p, +32 SP in the last couple of years.
Simock’s overall track record is half decent also… 138 bets / 32 wins / 52 p / 23% sr / +35 SP / AE 1.30 / IV 1.93 / 54% rivals beaten
He has another runner in the 3.40.
Spencer also has a couple of rides for Charlie Fellowes in the 1.30 and 2pm which may be worth a look given the stats above. Still, whatever they all do on Wednesday, stats worth noting for the future if you’re a fan of the turf.
Eoin Walsh … he may be worth keeping an eye on also, as an ‘under the radar’ jockey who’s hit some form and may well have improved. In any case in the last 30 days he’s 5/17, 7p, and in the last 14, 3/7, 4p +18 SP , including winners for Saeed Bin Suroor and Roger Varian. He’s got three rides on the card (1pm, 2.30, 4.10) for all that his track record isn’t anything to write home about just yet, 2/45, 10p in the last 5 years. However, he’s probably on a crest of a wave, given he rode 16 winners in the 335 days before this 30 day heat wave, and he may be worth keeping an eye on in the coming days. He’s not the sort of name who’d be over-bet, but can clearly do the job on recent evidence.
Up to Ayr…
Team ‘Tutty’ may be worth keeping an eye on, unless we’ve missed the boat… 3/13,7p in the last 30 days, 2/6,4p +24 SP in the last 14, 78% rivals beaten.
That’s significant I think, in the context that from their previous 99 runners they had just 5 winners. Maybe sickness and/or just badly handicapped/mediocre horses. (if sickness a few of them could be well handicapped again) K Tutty has 3 runners on the Ayr card, (3.50, 4.55, 5.30) and a couple on the 21st at Bath/Catterick (well, the same horse, with a double entry – Yolo Again) She’s only had 5 runners here in the last 5 years, no places as yet, but even so, they’re clearly in rude health at the moment and the sort of trainer/jockey the market will continue to overlook.
Hopefully something above for you to ponder.
My tip write up…
William of Orange – I thought he looked the overpriced one here even before the fav came out (which is an annoying withdrawal as I was happy to oppose him at 2s) and on recent winning chase form he arguably sets the standard in these conditions. While he’s 10, he appears to have been reinvigorated by a move to the in-form Mark Walford team and a switch to chasing, where he’s now 8 runs, 3 wins and 5 places (inc wins) in his career, all six handicap chase runs since Feb when moving to Walford’s, two wins so far. He hit the line hard at Catterick over 25f as he did two starts ago around here. You could visually see him quickening up after the last there as Joe got stuck in, which is always a positive. That effort was also decent ‘on the figures’ and it was a career best chase performance on RPRs, a 126, which was his best RPR since Nov 18 when finishing 4th in a C2 handicap hurdle around Aintree. As You like was behind him in that which gives some substance, given his 2nd NTO in an ok race at Market Rasen, Mr Mafia led this race for a time also. He’s a multiple C3 handicap hurdle winner in his younger days and a C2 win also, and recent evidence suggests he retains plenty of ability. He’s won from higher marks in the past. I don’t think he’ll be done for class here in what is a so so C3. He UR early on at Ayr 15 days ago, with a different jockey on, and he can be scrappy at the odd jump, but Joe knows him well (and rides this place well, 5/21,8p +19, all rides) , he’s got form around here, so with any luck bounces back. This race is 159 yards further than advertised, making it around 26.5f, and I don’t think that extra yardage will be a problem for him, whereas it raises the odd question for the two above him in the market. If he could repeat, or build on, that win here two starts back, he will out run his odds in this. He should race prominently, in a no excuses position. Hopefully Joe ensures the others really do have to get home.
Of the rest…
Well the ‘next best’ has to be The Devils Drop I think, for all that with the fav out, 9/4 is probably about right. (and now 7/4) A big run wouldn’t be a shock on just his 4th chase start, if he could build on his decent Newbury effort over 23f. The winner has since finished 2nd in an ok C2, and he had Minella Bobo and Jersey Bean behind in that race, who both won on their next starts. There is some substance to that form, but having returned after 700+ days off in October, he does have to prove he has the hardiness at the end of a race, and I wasn’t convinced that Newbury effort suggested he wanted further. He will have to prove his stamina here, for all that it may be what he wants, I’m not sure. He does travel through his races well and has won around here over hurdles. Still, with the fav out , given his more lightly raced profile and that Newbury effort, I can see why he was 7/2, and now 9/4 , now 7/4, after the R4. If he stays, and runs his race, he will give me a headache no doubt.
Town Parks… he has stamina to prove but it’s more an unknown, this his first start ever start beyond 21.5 furlong (although one of those wins a staying on effort up a muddy Carlisle hill) and on his 21st chase run. He’s 0/5,1p after breaks of 121+ days, and 0/4,0p from a mark of 131+ . I thought he looked short enough to me given those questions and if he arrives in a1 fitness, stays, and has enough in hand, so be it. Kerry is in form, and some of his recent form reads ok in the context of this race. Is he fit, will he stay?
The others had even more questions for me on recent evidence and i’d like to think it’s between the three above. With any luck William of Orange runs his race and outstays the other two. But at 6s, in this line up, i’ll pay to find out.
GL with any bets as always, Josh