Free Members Daily Post: 19/05/21 (complete)

Tip x1, Stats quals, flat pointers/ways in…

1.Tips

2. Summer Jumps Angles (report TBC)

3. Flat Turf Angles (report TBC)

4.Other/Updates (Punting Pointers HERE>>> )

(Members’ User Guide/Info : READ HERE>>>)

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1.Tips

x1 from me today, as of 9am, write up at the bottom…

#1 – 5.10 South – William Of Orange – 1 point win – 13/2 (Sky, WH) 6/1 (gen) WON 6/1 > 3/1 , +6

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2. Summer Jumps Angles

(all qualifiers = 7/44, 16p, -6.7) (star rating ‘ ♦ ‘ = 1/6, 3p, +1)

2.20 Warw – Hang Tough 11/2 3rd, -1

3.30 Warw – Thecraicisninety 11/1 UP -1

4.30 Warw- Clondaw Promise H3 5/1 3rd -1

4.30 Warw – Jamessaintpatrick 12/1 UP -1

5.45 South- The Bees Knees 15/2 UP -1

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3. Flat Turf Angles

(all qualifiers = 3/19, 3p, -12.2) (star rating ‘ ♦ ‘ = 0/2, 0p, -2)

5.30 Ayr – Tukhoom 7/2

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4.Other/Updates

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A few Flat pointers/ways in…

Yarmouth

One jockey to watch around here, and yes it’s that man, Jamie Spencer. Mr Marmite given how he generally likes to ride a horse (in part because he’s put on a lot of keen ones, rogues and horses who need to be taught how to race properly) If a hold up ride is going to annoy you, obviously don’t put any money on him! 🙂 Personally i’m a fan, especially in a big field/straight track (Ascot)… but maybe that’s why he also does very well at Yarmouth – his patient style reaping rewards when others go too hard (for all he’s very good from on the pace also). Anyway, he’s probably got the best record here of anyone.. in the last five years… all rides…

202 rides / 50 wins / 87 places (inc wins) / 25% sr / +70 SP / AE 1.27 / Impact Value 2.06 / 61% rivals beaten

If there’s one jockey to use as a ‘way in’ around here, it’s probably him. He has a fair few winners in the 8s-10s range, sometimes a bit bigger also. He’s also very picky these days and doesn’t generally go racing on Monday’s and Tuesday’s as he doesn’t need the money, can’t be bothered and doesn’t want to waste his time in low grade nonsense (his recent RP article with Lee M worth a read) .. unless David Simcock really wants him on something. He appears to have first refusal on his services these days.

And they do pretty well when teaming up at Yarmouth in the last 5 years… 52 bets / 19 wins / 27p / +38 SP

They team up with one in the 1pm who may be worth a closer look.

He’s a last time out winner’ and Simock does well with those, worth noting.. 28/97, 50p, +32 SP in the last couple of years.

Simock’s overall track record is half decent also… 138 bets / 32 wins / 52 p / 23% sr / +35 SP / AE 1.30 / IV 1.93 / 54% rivals beaten

He has another runner in the 3.40.

Spencer also has a couple of rides for Charlie Fellowes in the 1.30 and 2pm which may be worth a look given the stats above. Still, whatever they all do on Wednesday, stats worth noting for the future if you’re a fan of the turf.

Eoin Walsh … he may be worth keeping an eye on also, as an ‘under the radar’ jockey who’s hit some form and may well have improved. In any case in the last 30 days he’s 5/17, 7p, and in the last 14, 3/7, 4p +18 SP , including winners for Saeed Bin Suroor and Roger Varian. He’s got three rides on the card (1pm, 2.30, 4.10) for all that his track record isn’t anything to write home about just yet, 2/45, 10p in the last 5 years. However, he’s probably on a crest of a wave, given he rode 16 winners in the 335 days before this 30 day heat wave, and he may be worth keeping an eye on in the coming days. He’s not the sort of name who’d be over-bet, but can clearly do the job on recent evidence.

Up to Ayr…

Team ‘Tutty’ may be worth keeping an eye on, unless we’ve missed the boat… 3/13,7p in the last 30 days, 2/6,4p +24 SP in the last 14, 78% rivals beaten.

That’s significant I think, in the context that from their previous 99 runners they had just 5 winners. Maybe sickness and/or just badly handicapped/mediocre horses. (if sickness a few of them could be well handicapped again) K Tutty has 3 runners on the Ayr card, (3.50, 4.55, 5.30) and a couple on the 21st at Bath/Catterick (well, the same horse, with a double entry – Yolo Again) She’s only had 5 runners here in the last 5 years, no places as yet, but even so, they’re clearly in rude health at the moment and the sort of trainer/jockey the market will continue to overlook.

Hopefully something above for you to ponder.

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My tip write up…

William of Orange – I thought he looked the overpriced one here even before the fav came out (which is an annoying withdrawal as I was happy to oppose him at 2s) and on recent winning chase form he arguably sets the standard in these conditions. While he’s 10, he appears to have been reinvigorated by a move to the in-form Mark Walford team and a switch to chasing, where he’s now 8 runs, 3 wins and 5 places (inc wins) in his career, all six handicap chase runs since Feb when moving to Walford’s, two wins so far. He hit the line hard at Catterick over 25f as he did two starts ago around here. You could visually see him quickening up after the last there as Joe got stuck in, which is always a positive. That effort was also decent ‘on the figures’ and it was a career best chase performance on RPRs, a 126, which was his best RPR since Nov 18 when finishing 4th in a C2 handicap hurdle around Aintree. As You like was behind him in that which gives some substance, given his 2nd NTO in an ok race at Market Rasen, Mr Mafia led this race for a time also. He’s a multiple C3 handicap hurdle winner in his younger days and a C2 win also, and recent evidence suggests he retains plenty of ability. He’s won from higher marks in the past. I don’t think he’ll be done for class here in what is a so so C3. He UR early on at Ayr 15 days ago, with a different jockey on, and he can be scrappy at the odd jump, but Joe knows him well (and rides this place well, 5/21,8p +19, all rides) , he’s got form around here, so with any luck bounces back. This race is 159 yards further than advertised, making it around 26.5f, and I don’t think that extra yardage will be a problem for him, whereas it raises the odd question for the two above him in the market. If he could repeat, or build on, that win here two starts back, he will out run his odds in this. He should race prominently, in a no excuses position. Hopefully Joe ensures the others really do have to get home.

Of the rest…

Well the ‘next best’ has to be The Devils Drop I think, for all that with the fav out, 9/4 is probably about right. (and now 7/4) A big run wouldn’t be a shock on just his 4th chase start, if he could build on his decent Newbury effort over 23f. The winner has since finished 2nd in an ok C2, and he had Minella Bobo and Jersey Bean behind in that race, who both won on their next starts. There is some substance to that form, but having returned after 700+ days off in October, he does have to prove he has the hardiness at the end of a race, and I wasn’t convinced that Newbury effort suggested he wanted further. He will have to prove his stamina here, for all that it may be what he wants, I’m not sure. He does travel through his races well and has won around here over hurdles. Still, with the fav out , given his more lightly raced profile and that Newbury effort, I can see why he was 7/2, and now 9/4 , now 7/4, after the R4. If he stays, and runs his race, he will give me a headache no doubt.

Town Parks… he has stamina to prove but it’s more an unknown, this his first start ever start beyond 21.5 furlong (although one of those wins a staying on effort up a muddy Carlisle hill) and on his 21st chase run. He’s 0/5,1p after breaks of 121+ days, and 0/4,0p from a mark of 131+ . I thought he looked short enough to me given those questions and if he arrives in a1 fitness, stays, and has enough in hand, so be it. Kerry is in form, and some of his recent form reads ok in the context of this race. Is he fit, will he stay?

The others had even more questions for me on recent evidence and i’d like to think it’s between the three above. With any luck William of Orange runs his race and outstays the other two. But at 6s, in this line up, i’ll pay to find out.

GL with any bets as always, Josh

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

34 Responses

    1. Typical! They’ve had a lot of rain, clearly not suitable for a fair few I suspect, may be more NRs there through the day, we shall see.

  1. 8.05 Kempton, Thrill Seeker – consistent performer, trainer in form, good draw, has won in this class and at the course and at the distance . 13/2 now, 1 point each way .

    Back with an each way Lucky 15 later .

    1. I wanted to bet this horse today, but i couldn’t get past the bad draw, so will leave it. I would be interested to know your thoughts on how you think he has a ‘good draw’. Cheers

      1. hmm yea, I did just have a look at 14 runner, 7f handicaps around there when it’s riding as it is… stalls 13/14, 3/142, 26p in whatever period that is – on the flip side, he does race prominently usually and there’s not loads of pace in the race (on paper at least, for all low drawn horses may go forward to hold a position), so maybe he can get out and across in time? or not stuck too wide anyway. It will be fascinating to see how he goes from there.
        Josh

        1. Thanks Josh, appreciate you coming back, so basically you are saying he has a bad draw. Im sure many of the 142 have tried to get out and across , there is no getting away from it……its a bad draw

          1. On the figures i’m looking at I certainly wouldn’t say it was a good draw, but Martin may be looking at some different figures to me/different interpretation – the place % SR for example, isn’t too different to some of those drawn a bit lower, and a quick breaking horse/good jockey/chucked in etc can help overcome such things – and, there is no electric pace on paper in that race, on what they’ve all done on their last 4 starts – nothing that likes to lead etc – can Tom get him out quick, and across, and within 1f or so, his draw is nullified/then irrelevant? All then a question of weighing that up against price I suppose, but yes – on those figures above, technically it looks a bad draw – but I wouldn’t be shocked if in this one example it’s not as important as it can be, but that could be nonsense. All depends if Tom goes forward – if he thinks he needs to tuck in quickly, he could find himself too far back etc. be interesting how he plays it.
            Josh

  2. Small lucky 15 e/w

    It’s got half a chance maybe:

    Yarmouth 1.30 Penywern Taverner 6/1

    Warwick 2.20 Hang Tough 5/1

    Warwick 4.30 Clondaw Promise 5/1

    Kempton 5.25 Ivynator 15/2

  3. 13.30. Yarmouth. Selection: King of Gold 0.50 pts e/w. = 1pt.

    Nice C3 2 yo race and was waiting to see what the weather was doing and the ground now g/s with soft in places which probably means more soft than good…hard to judge the accuracy of reports and even harder to see what will handle the going so Kingman progeny in King Of Gold as the sire handles any going…the other horse sired by Kingman is Tolstoy but prefer King of Gold as the dam of Tolstoy was unraced….the downside of my selection is I cannot find the AEI as I think the horse is down as a gelding instead of a colt and the search in Equine line come up as not found….so small stakes (Sorry Chris) half point e/w for some return hopefully,

    Of the others, Tolstoy, out of Kingman foaled 23 Feb with dam unraced, though the dam does have Frankel and Galileo in the pedigree so should produce good progeny and the bloodline AEI is ok but will leave this one alone….what looks like being the fav is Mystery Fox and foaled 9th March by Dark Angel, a sire I have a soft spot for as the progeny are genuine, will handle the going as will the dam which won second time out a Doncaster in a C4 over 6f on gd/sft…..has an above average AEI and the bloodline mix has produced 16 wins from 28 runners which is impressive, so everything to like… cost a bundle, too, $351,469, though not a guarantee of anything, and as everyone knows a short price and a fav , which I usually oppose (foolishly, some may say) so would not put anyone off backing this one………..Battle of the Nile foaled 14th March isby Havana Gold and the sire did win on gd/sft over 6f on debut …the dam won 11 ft std to slow at Kempton, being 1/10 overall…the AEI is low so am against that one…..Two interesting ones are I’m A Gambler and Croupier….the latter has the best above average AEI of the whole field and progeny of the bloodline have won 5/10 which is impressive…for me the downside is being foaled 14th April and the sire, Invincible Spirit, though top class winning 2 G1’s over 6f on gd to firm, may not be as good on today’s going….the dam was unraced though does have Galileo in 3rd gen of pedigree so should handle the going…..I’m A Gambler, foaled 7th April by No Nay Never a G1 winner over 6f on gd/sft so no concerns regarding the going, and the dam is 1g carrying the X factor gene for large hearts and has this gene twice. so what is called a “double copy” mare …more chance of passing this on to progeny, basically…….the dam was a 3/7 winner overall and won a 10f listed race on good going so is a stakes winner…..the AEI is ok and the progeny have had no runners thus far….I will be interested to see how these run but will leave them alone for now and stick with the above selection ….gd lck with any you back today as looks a tricky day

    1. Typical that the other Kingman sire pops up to do my selection but 0.70 pts profit…….so 17.65 pts still to the good in the pot and more importantly stops the rot……I’m A Gambler ran well at a decent price for a place so at least getting back to identifying the right horses for a change….

  4. I got a place with Puchita yesterday, so these are my big priced pokes for today, all 1pt each-way

    ROSE BANDIT – 245 Ayr, 22-1 Skybet 5 places, 22-1 in other places
    TWIN APPEAL – 350 Ayr, 18-1 generally
    CLASS CLOWN – 350 Ayr, 33-1 generally
    LEGENDE D’ART – 440 Yarmouth, £1 win 48 smarkets, £1 place 3 – 17-2 bet365
    CITY WANDERER – 530 York, 28s generally, 33-1 at skybet
    FLAMING SPEAR – 805 Kempton 28s generally, 33-1 bet365

    Rose Bandit
    2nd start for Iain Jardine. Finished last of 10 on his stable debut at Musselburgh last time over 7 furlongs, weakening then eased by Andrew Mullen. Hopefully strip fitter today, dropped to 6 furlongs. Has some winning and placed form as a 2 year old producing RPRs in the 60s and 70s. Runs off a mark of 48 today.

    Twin Appeal and Class Clown
    Josh has summarised the Tuttys form above, 2 wins plus another 3 places in the last fortnight from 6 runners. Twin Appeal has won 8 times, all at 7f/7 1/2 furlong, runs off a mark of 60 today, won off far higher marks in the past. With the health of the yard, worth a dab.

    I couldn’t let Class Clown go off unbacked at 33-1. I note bet365 are shortest on it at 20s. 5th of 7 at Ayr last time, but was just over 2 lengths behind Caballero that day and is 2lbs better off. Caballero is 9-4, Class Clown 33s. A two-time winner, it was awarded a RPR of 71 when winning at Newcastle in 2020, it runs off 66 today.

    The 440 at Yarmouth is a weak race. Legende D’Arte is top-rated on Topspeed ratings and has a 1st time wind-op. Runs off 65 today, was given a RPR of 69 at Lingfield over 1 miles weakening in the last furlong.

    City Wanderer may well finish out of the back of the telly, 3 times winner for Mick Channon in the past, now with Ruth Carr. Done little this year but an apprentice race might revive it. Off a mark of 65, has won off marks in the 70s before.

    Flaming Spear runs in a decent handicap at Kempton. Back to a mark of 83 and Sophie Ralston takes off another 5lbs. Won off far higher marks in the past and has won at Kempton. Ran a decent appearance at Kempton this year but was disappointing at York last time. Chancy but somewhere near his best would be close.

  5. sorry rushed off my feet today, small singles + ew L15
    Yarmouth
    2-30. Trouble shooter 10-1
    Ayr
    3-50. Twin Appeal 18-1
    Warwick
    2-20. Goodnight Charlie 10-1
    Kempton
    8-05. Flaming Spear 28-1

  6. 1 point each way Lucky 15 – a trail algorithm I am testing at present.

    1.15 Warwick, Lions Vigil.
    2.05 Cork, Arewecrystalclear .
    4.00 Warwick, Sugar Baron .
    6.35 Kempton, Sundet Salute .

    Good luck Martin

  7. Just had a quick look at the 14.10 Ayr race and like the look of Eternal Glory at around 20/1 to oppose the odds on fav……stumbled coming out of the stalls on debut and beaten 14 or so lengths …when I did the times of those that have run did come out favourably with those that have run and given the adjustments I make for course, distance, going and factoring times for the distances a horse was beaten last time out, actually came out ahead of Showtime Mahomes…the latter running 61.90 and Eternal running 61.08….this is due to the fact that Showtime’s race was run in a slow time being 3.66 secs above the course standard, whilst Eternal’s run at Bath being over 5.045 furlongs as opposed to Ripon’s dead 5f…..was run 2.06 seconds above standard for the course….these forward projections show what a horse can run at so at 20/1 worth a shot for me on a personal level but not putting this up as an “official” selection for recording purposes…..the trainer does well here so thought this was priced up on what the horse has achieved thus far but, for me, overpriced on the potential to achieve more and beat the short priced fav…that is the “logic”..overall the pedigrees are very similar in this grade but a bonus for me is that Eternal has Secretariat in the bloodline which for me is a bonus……as there are only 6 runners no e/w available at 18/1 but around 6’s for 3 places I will personally back win only and have a saver e/w for the win and place to cover the 1pt win only bet…… will see if I have completely lost my marbles but, for me personally,, worth a punt

    1. Thanks as ever John, sterling write up and a small profit. Don’t read many books but always read your write ups 🙂

    2. only half lost my marbles as Eternal Glory ran well for a while and thought may be in with a shout but not to be…was a punt after all…ws worth a go at the price….

  8. Impressed with King of Gold there John. A lot to like and may well have won in another half furlong…

    1. Thanks Mal…..just annoyed at myself for flagging up both the runners of the sire Kingman, especially as Tolstoy was from the Gosden yard but had my pedigree goggles on!!!..rather than taking note of the trainer……but happy with the run of my selection…should be winning soon and overall a good race to follow as the horses that ran and hit the frame are quality

  9. Another nice winner there Josh. You’re starting to make a habit of this winning lark 🙂 If his jumping had been a bit better down the straight he would’ve won that by a few lengths instead of a head bob.

    1. thanks Ken – yep that is him, which I knew and factored into price I thought, along with jockey – thought he’d be scrappy at odd jump, but that he did look the strongest stayer in that race, and so it’s proved. That 53 days off for fav niggled at me, given his long break before this season, clearly not easy to train. Anyway, nice for my general consistency to be rewarded, most been running ok/well backed etc, hopefully can build on it.

      1. and Elixsoft goes in at 14/1 in another head bobber for Team Tutty. Very nice. Cheers

    1. Yes indeed Josh, follow all your musings and micros with great interest and always have a point win or half point each way. I’ve said many times before your good self and so many others on here do a great job of offering up their tips and I love to have a dabble. All good fun, keep up the great work Josh……thankyou,
      Tom.

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