Free Members Daily Post: 16/05/21 (complete)

stats quals, reflections

1.Tips

2. Summer Jumps Angles (report TBC)

3. Flat Turf Angles (report TBC)

4.Other/Updates (Punting Pointers HERE>>> )

(Members’ User Guide/Info : READ HERE>>>) (to be updated)

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1.Tips

None today.

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2. Summer Jumps Angles

(all qualifiers = 5/28, 11p, -1) (star rating ‘ ♦ ‘ = 1/6, 3p, +1)

3.47 Strat- Larch Hill H1 10/3 2nd -1

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3. Flat Turf Angles

(all qualifiers = 2/16, 2p, -12.17) (star rating ‘ ♦ ‘ = 0/2, 0p, -2)

None.

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4.Other/Updates

It’s the final part that’s most important…

I’ve just about moved on from another failure on my part at Aintree – watching Burbank make all was rather painful and it wasn’t the first time this month i’ve watched the end of a race through my fingers. That race was over very early, when it was clear how much the leader was enjoying himself, tactics i’d predicted but failed to act on. Anyone who reads my write ups, esp this month, may have noted the numerous winners who were given strong shouts/dangers/’next best’ but who were not tipped. (usually in italics or underlined) It makes for torturous reading on my part… Captain Tommy (9s), Uptown Harry (9/2), Burbank (22s, 30p R4, 15/1), Minella Bobo (9/2) could have all easily been found this month and if i’m being ultra self-critical, I could throw Dell Arca (20s) into the mix also. And then there’s the x2 9/2 winners I had 1/2 points on. I was very close to all of those, I could be sat here on +35-50 odd points for the month and the fact I’m not has dominated my thinking since that Aintree race. In truth I’m not totally sure on what the solution is at the moment but that’s for me to work out. Im getting 90% of analysis/thinking correct, it’s the final little bit, which is the most important.

As it happens the tipping stats for May so far for UK pokes… 17 bets / 3 wins / 8 places (inc wins, x5 seconds) / -2.75 advised. (and -3 from Punchy’s last day) To have had a 1st or 2nd on eight occasions (all in chases), and to have been so close to many others as above, is more a positive than a negative. But still frustrating. If I keep repeating those stats/how consistent many have run, the profit pile will only go one way in time. (Blow by Blow should have won at 8s) However, while I will always make some errors like that long term (the nature of the beast, it’s generally a game of frustration but that’s why its so compelling, and it’s meant to be difficult) I clearly need to be making fewer of them, and it indicates on occasions i’m doing something wrong late in the piece. The final part of this puzzle solving game is the most important – pulling the tigger/the final decision, and evidently I haven’t got enough of those calls right. It’s something I’m reflecting on as it needs to improve, given what that profit pile should be sat on, the effort put in to get to the final shortlist/ones I’m interested in, only to then pick incorrectly. In part it’s about relying on instinct more/not over thinking, not being scared to lose (fear of an outsider running atrociously etc) and making sure I can live with whatever the result is. I’ve made a couple of tweaks to my approach this month, including turning the odds off within Geegeez racecards and making sure I go through a race/horses properly with no idea what the odds are, which isn’t something i’ve always done (and i’m sure that affects you subconsciously). I’ve tweaked my method a bit inc more emphasis on ‘class’ and ‘hot form’. But, Burbank was a real kick in the groin. 22/1 winners are not easy to find, he was, and I failed to pull the trigger. Maybe I should have just tipped all three of them, nothing else was ever getting competitive in that race. But, living with a JohnBB un-tipped at 4s, is a lot easier than a Burbank at 15s. Esp when two biggies are on a shortlist of 3. A game of fine margins, and i’ll be trying my best to get a few more calls correct. They’ll be some avalanche of profit when I do. I’m enjoying my renewed focus on the ‘3m’+, esp chases, and am excited for the year ahead, esp given the results with those since October (+78 or so). But I can’t be sat here in 6-12 months time writing similar to the above again.

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A quiet day today, back first thing Monday morning. Enjoy the rest of your weekend. Josh

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

23 Responses

  1. Josh, have you noted how many dangers for each race and analysed if more dangers means fewer winners for you or visa versa?
    What would you profit be like if you backed all the dangers?

    1. nope I haven’t, the issue is trying to make a few more of ‘the dangers’ actual tips. They’ll always be missed winners and danger horses winning etc, but the examples above are the most glaring and that I know in my own mind I was very close to etc, and that’s a lot of profit left sat there, for all that some will have read the write ups and had something on a few of them etc. Of course there’s plenty of ‘danger’ horses that lose and you only remember the winners etc.
      Josh

  2. Not a bad day yesterday apart from my main bet going down, of the the others i had 1w,3p, 2up and 2n/r’s.
    On to today where any ew value is hard to come by, you know the score small ew singles and a L15
    Ripon.
    2-05. Velocistar 28-1 is better than last 2 runs and could go close if bouncing back.
    Naas.
    2-40. Band of Outlaws 7-1 , been off for 18 months so fitness has to be taken on trust but is being backed.
    3-40. I was going to put up Make A Challenge but the ew value quickly went so will take a chance on A Step Too Far 33-1 who won a couple of cracking handicaps last year but has been poor on last 2 starts.
    Wexford.
    3-25. Trickey Trix 33-1 , another that’s been poor on last 2 starts but has better form than that in the book and may be worth another go.

    1. nice winner @ 28-1 and a place, nearly even better as A Step Too Far finished just out of the places. Trickey Trix was 7th.

        1. cheers Josh, think i’m finally working out how to use geegeez gold properly , i’m sure you’ve already worked out how i get to my selections still needs a bit of honing but i feel i’m getting there.

  3. Don’t beat yourself up josh that will always happen that’s the nature of the beast over 50 years if the seconds I’d back have won I’d be living in a life of luxury

    1. A life of luxury may have ruined you. Wine, women and song etc. Russian females named lludmilla spending your money; fraudster financial advisers getting you to invest in the Amazon rain forest or a diamond mine in Africa. Mixing with David Cameron. It is all bad. Bring a tax exile on some island somewhere and missing the rain in the UK. Best to keep backing the second placers!

    2. ha, that is very true. And it’s not beating myself up as such but I really should have been on a couple more of those above officially and it’s right I ponder why that was or if any tweaks I can make to ensure I put up more of them. While realising of course that there will always be missed winners/danger horses flagged etc. And I don’t bemoan seconds as that is just the game, and its always a positive being that close.

  4. Josh
    Just a suggestion but when you put up your selections at the start. In this form.
    1. Selection
    2. Next Best
    3. Danger
    It is up to us then to select or bet all.
    Your write-ups will be the guide on how we bet.

    Mike

    1. Totally agree with that Mike. I for one do not simply back the ‘tips’, the write up is crucial and if Josh ever says something like ‘it woukd be mildy irritating if xxx wins,’ i immediately back it! Keep battling, Josh

    2. Totally agree Mike, great idea. I suppose I subconsciously do that in my head when reading Josh’s excellent write ups.

    3. Hi Mike,
      I can look at organising my write ups in that order and flagging such horses more clearly, and doing so before I post everything up may indeed help me. I want the tipping section above to be clear when it’s a tip etc, but I can look to be more structured in the notes, which some may find useful. In a way i sort of do it anyway in the ordering/italics/underlined etc but that could be clearer. And as you say, you can then flick through and do with it as you please.
      Josh

  5. As Paul Whitehouse on The Fast Show would say -‘Hardest game in the world – Tipping racehorses’.

    I come across many tipsters and algorithms in the work I do with other sites. Some are profitable in the long term but only circa 5%. Actually the algorithms make more profit as they throw up less winners but they are usually bigger priced. Multiples have long losing runs but when they hit they pay big.

    I like Josh’s approach to specialise in certain type of races. I also like those who specialise in the all weather. I am starting a new project trying to specialise on Lingfield Park on the all weather. When we can get back on to courses I may become a member there and go along to observe in the flesh.

    But to state the obvious – if something is not working it needs tweaking. We learn as we go.

    Good luck Martin

    1. GL with the new project Martin, I do think there’s something to be said for having an element of specialisation, even if it’s broad – ‘flat/AW low grade handicaps’ etc or whatever, but certainly something in specialising in a certain course- esp getting to know the pools of horses, trainers and jockeys who ride the place well etc. Draw, pace etc
      Josh

  6. Nothing today though was close in the 13.33 at Ripon to tipping Miss World e/w but the opportunity has gone now there are only seven runners, so will wait for better chances….similarly over at Naas, lack of runners and going that has soft in the description makes for tricky options……..

  7. Dwelling on missed winners can be a destructive force. No matter how well you do you will always leave some of them off unbacked. Although I don’t back during the flat season much, after a few years of handing back the jumps profits, I tend to leave it alone, however I did look at a 2yo old race at Thirsk yesterday. David Evans had a runner and was profitable at the course with his 2yo’s 4-7.In the back of my mind I knew that he liked to get a few early ones fit before the bigger outfits get rolling, passed it over as it was 33/1,opened 40/1 and won easily at 100/30.
    Tommy Rapper was an excellent bet at Aintree, the other Dan Skelton runner Simpleh Loveleyy was an equally excellent bet 16-20-12/1,a course where Dan excels. It’s always worth having a look at his runners that the market has overlooked, you win some, you looses some, but as Larry has said if we backed all the ones we could have backed, well I would still be here looking out at green fields and be greeted by the song of birds each morning. Tomorrow is always a day away.

    1. thanks Gerry – oh I agree with that generally, dwelling can be very constructive. I like to try and do it positively to see if anything I can improve etc, but there comes a point rather swiftly where you just have to draw a line a move on. But i’d have liked to have landed on just a couple more of those above and then things are looking very good, but i’m happy with how i’ve been reading them and am not lacking confidence in how i’ll do in those races longer term. This game will never be ‘easy’ and maybe we should be thankful for that. We’d have to find another hobby otherwise. And yep, in this game, thankfully usually not long to wait before you can get stuck in again. Onwards. Josh

  8. Yea your right Martin why do all that when I can stay in blighty in the freezeing cold and wet

  9. There are strong stats supporting a couple of Rebecca Curtis runners at Ffos Las tomorrow

    2.55 Oscar Ache
    4.40 Lissitzky

    hurdles 7/24 +39
    curtis/bowen hurdles 11/45+38
    Trainer 2/3 last 14 days

  10. Five two year old races on 17th. and I do not like any of them for a variety of reasons….low grade with 3 class 5 races and having looked at all three the quality is lacking and the going is a problem in all of them…I thought the C4 at Carlisle would be the one to have the best chance of making a selection but having looked at the race in depth cannot put up a selection with any confidence which is disappointing, having spent the time going through the options…all have holes in them either the draw, going or distance, trainer, jockey and not prepared to put anything up for the sake of making a selection so will wait for better chances, where there are more clear cut profiles that stand out to make a selection worthwhile, rather than having a bet for the sake of having a bet……

  11. can you please move to today’s post Josh.
    A few worthy of ew consideration,
    Carlisle.
    2-45. Tangled 20-1, decent 2nd lto and on a good mark every chance, Gometra Ginty 20-1 , upped in class after winning a C5 lto poor last season but had a pretty decent 3yo season if back to that level would have every chance.
    5-00. Breguet Boy 11-1, won a couple at 2m over hurdles and is now tried on the flat at a new trip, has won over 8f the increase to 11f should suit.
    Ffos Las.
    2-55. Putting Green 7-1, short enough price but looked to be coming back to form when a decent 3/14 lto and on a very competative mark.
    3-30. Dr Robin 18-1, happy to take a chance at the price.

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