Free Members Daily Post: 15/05/21 (complete)

Stats quals, TV races video

1.Tips

2. Summer Jumps Angles (report TBC)

3. Flat Turf Angles (report TBC)

4.Other/Updates (Punting Pointers HERE>>> )

(Members’ User Guide/Info : READ HERE>>>) (to be updated)

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1.Tips

No tips on Sat, no chases I wish to play in.

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2. Summer Jumps Angles

(all qualifiers = 5/28, 11p, -1) (star rating ‘ ♦ ‘ = 1/5, 3p, +2)

3.25 Bang – No No Maestro 6/1 UP -1

5.45 Uttox – Champagne Lilly H3 ♦ 6/1 UP 5/1 -1 (never in it, that all happened a stride too quick, flat out from flag fall, never jumped with speed – smaller field, 3m/3m2f+, stiffer track maybe)

6.20 Uttox – Canyon City 7/1

6.20 Uttox – Encore Champs 6/1

7.50 Uttox – Ever So Cool H2 10/3

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3. Flat Turf Angles

(all qualifiers = 2/16, 2p, -12.17) (star rating ‘ ♦ ‘ = 0/2, 0p, -2)

3.00 Newb – Tamborrada H1 11/2 UP -1

7.35 Donc – Third Kingdom H3 2/1

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4.Other/Updates

A fairly quiet Saturday ahead, nothing on the jumps front I wish to wade in ‘tipping’ wise – if you see a C4, 2m7f+ handicap chase you’ll know i’ve had a browse, but they’re low grade on Saturday, the odd ‘novice’ handicap also, and the weather looks unpredictable. So, i’ll sit those out. There’s a 2m6.5f handicap chase at Stratford on Sunday I may be unable to resist browsing at, but we shall see.

I’ll be back Sunday morning at the latest, for now >>>

Saturday’s flat action, esp the handicaps, looks worth sitting out to my eyes (even for ‘musing’ purposes), certainly the ITV races. They’re all 3YO only handicaps which give me shivers, as naturally they’re packed with unexposed horses open to progress. Take the 3pm Newbury – 11 runners, 7 won last time out. 7 of them have 5 or fewer career starts, and it’s still early enough in the season to get a grip on the form-lines, who’s grown bundles over the winter, and who’s professional (doesn’t pull/can switch off etc) So, no musings on that front, i don’t think i’d be able to add much.

You can find a video at the bottom where I try to race through the 7 ITV races and try to say something useful, both for today and moving forwards.

Champagne Lilly – a ‘star rating’ pick for team Twister- they haven’t had a great time of it since November, well, just lacking consistency, but they’ve been going a bit better recently. This mare makes chase debut in a weak looking C5 and she arrives having run ok the last twice, and one of her novice hurdle efforts has worked out well, suggesting this mark is workable. What lured me in was the fact she won x4 in point to points (from five runs) and she could well be transformed for the switch to fences, enjoying this sort of tempo much more than hurdles where she has appeared a bit rushed & outpaced. She may not want this ground going proper soft, I don’t know, but that would be a question for many of them. I suspect she’s much better than this mark and chasing will help her show it, just a question of when. Hopefully she’s 6/7s+ which looks likely, I’m not sure i’d want a short price, but I thought i’d type this up now rather than Saturday morning. The first few fences may tell us plenty in this race and I suspect Sam will have her handy.

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

15 Responses

  1. A 10/1 place and a loser on Friday.

    I have been scratching around for picks on Saturday, not the easiset of days.

    1.50 Newbury, Tactical – won on his seasonal debut and so has trained on. Trainer in form, has won in this class and at this distance. The draw should not be an issue. 2/1 now, 2.5 points win.
    5.00 Newmarket, Yimou – down in class, trainer in form, has won in this class. Can get the lead, good draw. 7/1 now, so 1 point each way.

  2. Not a lot on TV today but Ralph Beckett has an interesting handicapper at Doncaster in the 7.05.
    I collect racing systems and have 10 Beckett pointers and 5 of them are pointing at this 1 being victorious including the time of the month and the claimer taking a few pound off and itsIrish bred:

    Today’s NAP Doncaster 7.05 Galah

    1. thanks for sharing Frank, best of luck. Ralph’s had a cracking start to the season and hopefully it continues.
      Josh

    2. Thanks Frank, I keep a close eye on this stable too, been profitable so far this year, have followed you in on this and doubled up with Devilwala 2.40 Newmarket, Ralph and Rossa GL

  3. A blank yesterday apart from a place for my longshot it’s on to today and with a completely pointless card at Bangor i’ve gone through the flat cards and to be honest found very little apart from one, so it’s mainly golden oldies and speculative longshots which of course means small stakes just for fun.
    Newbury 3-35. My only real bet of the day, Century Dream 28-1 has an impressive career record at the highest level 9/21 13p, hit the ground running last season with 2 good wins one here and followed that up with a win at Goodwood in soft ground, d4 c2 c/d1.
    All that said Palace Pier is the fly in the ointment but to my eyes a 25-1 place is better than a 4-6 winner. 1pt ew.
    Thirsk.
    1-35. Duke Of Firenze 14-1
    2-10. Little Jo 12-1
    4-30. Carlovian 10-1 / Peachey Carnehan 20-1
    Newmarkret.
    3-50. Arigato 10-1 / Dazzling Dan 8-1 ( dutch?)

    1. one other i found interesting is in the Navan 3-40. Eleuthera 25-1 5p , drops back to 5f and is now 2 below lwm drawn 24/26 might be worth a nibble.

  4. Several two year old races today of mixed quality so have stuck with just one and that is over in Ireland at Navan in the 13.55. The quality of that race plus the numbers for some ew value is the reason behind choosing this race.

    Selection : Don Julio 1 pt e/w.

    Several in with a shout in this race including the fav, The Entertainer, Geodesic, Albion Square, Reigning Profit and the April foaled filly She’s Trouble but prepared to give the second string of Donnacha O’Brien the nod over his Geodesic as the time of the latter’s debut was not earth shattering with the 6f run run in 75.09 f…that was a slow race and my average for a C4 horse over 6f is 72.77 secs…that race was run on good going…Albion Square was in the same race but according to the Racing Post was said to have scoped badly so that run can be forgiven but on pedigree the dam was 0/8 on turf which puits me off that one…The entertainer is respected and may well win as has all the pedigree credentials to do sothough foaled 16th April so that would be off putting for me……Reigning Profit is a from a speed ball sire but dam 0/2 and though foaled 5th Feb that would be off putting with the dam not winning……She’s Trouble is a filly foaled 2oth April but the dam did win being 1/4 …the sire, though , was unraced at 2yo so that puts me off …this may well be a father and son benefit but my selection was interesting enough and rthe price good enough for an e/w poke to hit the frame at least, even with an unknown apprentice on board ,folaled 23rd March by Caravaggio who’s sire has Geodesic and The Entertainer running the dam has Secretariat in the family which I like and the dam won 7ff on soft so worth a shot at the price…..all the best with your bets today…..

    1. 20.95 pts going into today…..2pts wagered (I agree with Nick and Adam from yesterday an e/w is two bets) so 18.95 left if no return today…looking ahead at tomorrow Ripon and Naas ….the latter looks the quality, but lack of numbers and the going would be a concern will see once I have had a look if I want to get involved….(duplicated as post put in yesterday’s blog in error.)

    2. Well, ran ok but not good enough so the run of my bad form continues with 18.95 pts still alive!!…compensation did name the the winner and horses in profile did place….must try to get over my phobia concerning backing favs!!!

  5. Hi John the market speaks volumes in2yr old races you learn plenty 10 mins before the off

    1. Yep …I do agree especially, as you say before the off as the paddock watchers and those on course watching them go to post, so will be interesting to see when the crowds return if this makes a significant difference in terms of winners in such races…..backing favs a good route to the poor house that is why I oppose them….you have to be so accurate and have a way better strike rate than I could ever dream of to back them consistently to make a profit, so that is a barrier to me for getting involved and putting them up on the site as viable selections; prefer viable alternatives at bigger prices and prepared to take the hit when playing at those bigger priced that the market, in my opinion has it wrong….but each to their own and if backing favs or other horses at short prices is your thing and can profit then that is fine but I must be genetically pre programmed to find alternatives!!!

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