Free Members Daily Post: 14/05/21 (complete)

All tips x2, York thoughts, Stats quals.

1.Tips

2. Summer Jumps Angles (report TBC)

3. Flat Turf Angles (report TBC)

4.Other/Updates (Punting Pointers HERE>>> )

(Membersโ€™ User Guide/Info : READ HERE>>>) (to be updated)

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1.Tips

x2 tips from me below, as of 9am, write up at the bottom…

#1 – 7pm Aintree – JohnBB – 1 point win – 4/1 (Sky, 888, BV, Betf, Lad) NR

#2 – 7pm Aintree – Tommy Rapper – 1 point win – 14/1 (bet365) 12/1 (gen) 2nd, 9/1 (R4) > 7/2

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2. Summer Jumps Angles

(all qualifiers = 5/27, 11p, 0) (star rating ‘ ♦ ‘ = 1/5, 3p, +2)

7.00 Aintree – Versatility 5/1 UP

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3. Flat Turf Angles

(all qualifiers = 2/16, 2p, -12.17) (star rating ‘ ♦ ‘ = 0/2, 0p, -2)

None.

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4.Other/Updates

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An decent day 2 at York for my musings, good old Kynren getting up at a nice price and the micro quals had a better day, highlighting the first three winners. I’m very close to having a good run with the 3m chasers, either that or it will go the other way. I should have done better profit wise in the last few weeks given how i’ve read the races, but a few iffy decisions with winning danger horses or ‘next best’ lurking, changes of mind, and a few winners with 1/2 points or or not at all. For all such things will always be part of the game/part of the challenge. I’m happy with backing Lucinda’s and would again at the price, no issue there given pre race thoughts. Going EW on him and leaving Harry completely was clearly an unforced error and the sort I need to cut out but I’ll take the positives with how I’ve been reading those races, while being close to untipped winners is frustrating, its more a positive than being nowhere near or winners leaving you bemused. Backing two, rather than one EW, has always been my comfort zone and I doubt you’ll see another EW poke for a good while! For all that Craiganboy looked like he was going to glide past and outstay the lot of them. Not form to get overly excited about I don’t think.

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No Day 3 video from York but some musings…

I’m not sure I want to give back my tv change profit from Kynren and Friday’s handicaps don’t look as appetising, but some thoughts…

The 2.40 looks an interesting affair. There’s a few who’ve shown their best form to date on the AW and have to prove that the turf is fine – more so an unknown, but it’s a question for both the Haggas and Stoute horses (and Mick Appleby’s), for all they’re thoroughly unexposed. There’s two on the trends list that look interesting to my eyes…

I like Blue Cup (UP, too keen, game over before the stalls arguably, he will win more races when settling/stronger pace) in this, for all I don’t like his price, 5/2 doesn’t feel overpriced for a C2 handicap at York. He was fresh enough at Epsom and got no run through. That shouldn’t be an excuse and his trainer has won this race previously. I’ve no doubt he’s well handicapped and he will be flying up the straight. He is the one to beat I think.

Makram (2nd, bumped into one) is interesting at 6s. He had no luck in running LTO and really could be anything over this distance. It looks sure to suit and unlock further improvement. I don’t get the jockey bookings, unless the owner doesn’t like Jason Watson, who can do this weight and is on the Balding horse. Odd.

The other complicating factor in this race is the lack of pace on paper, and that’s usually dangerous from a punting perspective if falsely run – some may not settle, and it could turn into a sprint. Then who knows what happens. Sameem, at 66s, is the only out and out front runner in the race, or he was when with James Tate. He’s just the sort of horse Tim Easterby will do well with at some point, allowed more time to mature and a falling mark. One to keep an eye on. The market and jockey booking is suggesting ‘not today’ but maybe he is fully tuned up, will bounce out and be the one to catch into the final furlong. Or they hold him up! This race is there to be won from the front by a thinking jockey for all that this CD does suit hold up types, and they have plenty of time to wind up.

The 3.40... looks a minefield of a C4 handicap. There’s three ‘micro qualifiers’ for this and of those I thought the old boy Muntadab (UP) may be of interest at an each-way price. Again not loads of pace on paper in this and he can lob along near the front end. Maybe he’s not as good as he once was but in 4 runs at York he’s gone very close in three of them, and he hasnt run here since 2018. At least he arrives in form and you wouldn’t be shocked if this had been the plan. Declan Carroll likes a lower grade handicap winner at this meeting and Shawaamekh (UP)ran at the Chester May meeting LTO, first run of the season and first after a wind op, a meeting which is a good trial ground for races here this week it appears. He’s a CD winner also and this must have been the plan.

I’ve no real thoughts on the other races – there’s two micro qualifiers in the 4.15 and they both head the market, both LTO winners. Varians has a ground question and it’s his first run of the season, Tweet Tweet couldn’t have been much more impressive LTO, but a bit like Blue Cup, hard to say they look value, but that’s in the eye of the beholder.

After two half decent days I’m due one where I don’t mention a winner, but with any luck some of those may run well and the trends/stats lead the way again. They’ve done well this week, certainly as a ‘way in’ .

GL with any bets.

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My tips write ups…

JohnBB – 4s is fair here and he’s the most interesting of those near the top end (if not generally) and if building on his decent effort here LTO, he’s the one to beat. That was his first try over this trip but he didn’t fail through a lack of stamina, staying on all the way to the line, just beaten by Happygolucky who probably has a shade more class. But no harm in losing to him, and he stayed ahead of the rest comfortably enough, chased home by that ever present G3 handicap yardstick in Spiritofthegames. (who also looked to stay on that decent ground, which gives the Skelton’s options, esp 3m vets chases if they so wished, as he usually finds something better treated now at that level, given his consistency) That run proves he has the class for this race, which is a slight drop and weaker on paper also. They went a decent gallop LTO. That was also a joint career best RPR (144), on the back of his other career best at Wetherby. They still gave him a 144 despite falling two out – he was going to be a clear second there, in a race which has worked out very well – he would have been chased home by Shannon Bridge, Ravenhill Road and Time To Get Up, who’ve won x5 between then since, Jonjo’s winning the Midlands National, after bolting up at Wincanton on his next start. In the context of this race, that’s very good form, and I think the ground was softer than ideal for him that day, his jumping a bit sticky. his Sandown win in Dec 19 was good also. He just ticks a lot of boxes, more to come from him on his 11th career start, 7th chase. He does need to prove he can back up LTO and he wouldn’t be the first Lacey horse to give the impression he can think about the game too much at times, but I just had to have him onside at 4s. He would be the ‘why didn’t you just back him’ winner in this, given all of the above, and he could win this like a 2s shot. Every box is ticked, including being open to further progress, which isn’t the case for many in here, plenty hoping a repeat of a former good run will suffice, the handicapper looking in charge.

Tommy Rapper – i couldn’t leave him at 12s here for Dan and Harry (who, as an aside, are 3/12,8p in CD handicap chases) on what, despite his age, is just the 21st run of his life, and 5th over fences. In Oct 19 he basically won a beginners chase on the bridle from a solid Tizzard horses rated in the high 130s. Something then went wrong, returning in Feb 21 after 499 days off. He ran a stormer at Exeter over hurdles in a C2, cruising up like the winner before tiring. That race has produced a few winners, Flemcara, Ask Dillon. He then ran in The Midlands National, a much better effort than the P suggests. He cruised around there, generally jumped well, and as they turned for home looked like he may get involved. His stamina then appeared to give way between 2 and 3 out. LTO in a G3 hurdle here was better than it appears on paper also I thought (you see so much more when watching the replays than just relying on the comments), held up very cold, unfancied, he moved stylishly around the field to not be far off them 3 out. He then walked through it, you can see one if his shoes fly off, and he then never went a yard after that error, allowed to come home in his own time. He has moved through his races this year as if he’s got more wins in him and he does have a touch of class, as evidenced by his 2nd in a decent G3 handicap hurdle here in 2019 (the same one he ran in LTO, where coincidentally he had Burbank stuffed that day when with Henderson) He appears versatile ground wise. Now, it could be that after whatever injury he had, he actually just travels well but now finds little for pressure – a physical or mental blockage, but at 12s there’s enough juice there for me to chance him. He may move like the winner for a long way through this and I think he’s got a big run in him. He’s shown more class than a fair few of these anyway. The market may guide, if he loses a leg I won’t hold out much hope. Although having said that, he’s gone very close at some big odds previously.

I didn’t really like the rest for one reason or another. I’ll probably never get Versatility right, he’d have won LTO but for stumbling after the last, for all a weaker race than this. His chase form isn’t quite on the level of JohnBBs and I preferred the latter, esp with his CD/G3 experience LTO. He can be ridden patiently, can hit one, and that weak effort at Haydock when I fancied him still irks me. BUT, he stays well, will relish the ground and appears back in form. He is well handicapped and he has more chase wins in him. He could run well, but 5s couldn’t lure me in. We shall see if I’ve picked right of those near the top end.

I’ll mention Burbank, (WON 15.4/1>10/1), who would maybe be mildly irritating at 22s, but a bit too much guesswork. They put the blinkers back on, Hughes gets a go (I think a David Bass would suit him, let him know who’s boss on the front end, make his mind up) – the blinkers and fences may spark a better run than LTO where he was woeful, and it has been a while since he showed anything over fences. He was in form for new connections in jumpers bumpers not so long ago, I do think most of his issues are in his head, and I doubt they know which version will show up. Even so, his best chase efforts/form arguably don’t match the selections anyway (esp from a ‘hot form’ perspective), esp JohnBB. And he may want his mark to come down a bit, I wasn’t sure he was that well handicapped. They paid 60k for him out of the Hemmings dispersal sale (blimey, what a shrewd businessman) and they’ll want more of a return at some point. Maybe one day they’ll try the National fences with him, Sefton, Beecher. He does have ability, it’s just getting it out of him. He will pop up one day over fences, again the market may guide.

The likes of Potters Legend, Minellacelebration and Sir Irvan could go well, but they are open to attack from better treated rivals and younger legs. They all look like the handicapper ‘may’ have their measure for now, but running their race could be good enough, they all jump, gallop and stay, and were in form when last seen. Minella loves it around here.

Quarenta is stuck on a career high mark also I think, and even his best may not be good enough if the selections show up. He’s a tricky customer but this could all be a bit too much for all that at his best he may look dangerous 2 out.

Mance Rayder couldn’t be in much better form, progressive, but he does have a massive class question/unkown. He deserves to take his chance here and may run a big race, but I just couldn’t answer the ‘does he have the class’, ‘does he have any hot form’ questions with a positive, but I suspect he’ll outrun his odds.

Fagan may lack the boot on this good ground, (no rain expected until 8pm, they watered 4mm yesterday) that appeared to be the case LTO here unless he needed it, but in theory JohnBB has him well held on that form, if running the same race.

I thin that’s the lot. JohnBB is the one to beat, if he doesn’t run his race then it does look open enough but i’ll chance Tommy Rapper at a price. The market may guide, but he’d give JohnBB something to think about if running to his best.

Pace wise… no out and out front runners in this so it may be interesting what they do. Maybe Harry S will switch things up and have his more prominent, not impossible. Johnny Burke won’t be far away and Hughes may try to go forward with Burbank, with the blinkers applied- that’s what they should do anyway, idiots if they’re not aggressive on the front end imo. Mance Rayder can race up there but doesn’t like to hit the front too soon.

Fingers crossed. Josh

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

33 Responses

  1. Hi josh perhaps leaving the e/w and backing the one you fancy and the danger still always easy after I think frustration in the number one watchword in horse racing unfortunately

    1. Oh for sure, I mean i’ll be saying something similar after a race in a year’s time. Frustration/such errors are part of the game, those late wrong calls can’t be avoided, it’s just a case of trying to make fewer of them. That’s part of the challenge/engagement. That’s a race I should have come out with a small profit on officially, rather than -2 given I really only liked two and one ended up winning, for all he may have been fortuitous. And the same can be said for the Ffos Las race I just left. Still, some progress, a few months back I don’t think i’d have backed Sandy Boy or Forgot to Ask for 1/2 points, and may have just watched on with agony. I’m improving with those 4, 9/2, shots, but clearly I need to make a few tweaks here and there. Thankfully in this game there’s usually not long to wait before another race to get stuck into.

      1. I’m not a fan of 0.5 pt / 1pt / 2pt betting . Level stakes is usually best for most of us. It’s usually best just to increase stakes when the bank grows and leave you’re betting at 1pt. I would stick to the same stakes when backing 2 or 3 in a race, if I can’t get most of my overall stake back with the shortest one winning then I’ll either either drop one or don’t bet. Most people who switch their staking around don’t realise their 2pt bets are losing over time or barely profitable because the prices are usually below 5/1, they don’t usually realise their 0.5 big priced pokes are having the same effect on their banks either. Of course it’s fun to throw change on a last minute fancy or some other funky bet, but for the most of us trying to gauge a staking plan for certain types usually doesn’t increase your profit and more often than not will cost you money in the long run.

        1. yep, I generally agree, and try to stick to 1 point and a 2 point max on a race. I’m not clever enough to adjust stakes too often, and certainly wouldn’t do the 3/4/5 point stuff that some enjoy doing regularly, but each to their own. Knowing when to up stakes rarely has any logical/consistent basis from my experience. Consistency is key I think, even if you use a small range.
          Betting 1/2 win is better than nothing, and in previous months some of my 1/2s would have just got a very strong mention in the write up – but on flip side, in hindsight, those halfs should have just been a +1 , and a level stake. And extra +5 or so from the MR and Worc races if so, and that all adds up over time. 1/2 is arguably weak play also, I either like them/think they’re value, or I don’t. I’ll pick the splinters out and try to do better ๐Ÿ™‚

        2. I think that level stakes is a basic starting point for punters until they become more nuanced with staking. There are lots of books and articles written on the subject of staking and Value etc and so I am not going to go in to it here. Good stuff on Google on it though.
          A lot of punters confuse staking with the odds of what you are betting on which is incorrect. The staking should be based upon the level of confidence you have in your selection at the current odds. We have done a lot of work on this on Smart Betting Club. You can read some of that for free on the site or via You Tube etc. There is some free stuff on betting level stakes versus variable staking.
          I personally think Josh has a good handle on staking, as do I. What I would suggest punters do is keep a record of their selections and measure them against level stakes and variable stakes and see what works bets for them? You should all be keeping a record of your bets on a spreadsheet and all you need to do is add additional columns. I would suggest measuring profit and loss and ROI% for both.

          Good luck Martin

          1. It is tricky – I think there’s a bit difference between a systematic /mechanical staking plan, which can clearly be more advanced than 1 point win/level stakes or whatever, which is rules based and that dictates stakes – vs our human mind subjectively picking when to up stakes , without any clear methodology and judging our own ‘confidence’ levels – which long term I suspect none of us are that great at. What dictates going from 1 point win, to 3 point win, or 5 point win, if there’s no method etc – what boxes have to be ticked etc? I may be more confident if i’m on a lone front running chase pick, which was in part the thinking with a 1/2 extra on Mr Mafia etc, which nearly paid off. But outside of that logic, the rest of the time it feels to me like its a finger in the air job for some people, as to when to leave 1 point win for example and have more on. Its a recipe for mental anguish also.
            There’s many methods though, i’m gen 1 point win, should try and avoid the 1/2 wins, and if a lone front running chaser, I may go extra 1/2 if other boxes ticked etc, but other than that, I should be consistent. Some have a scale though and rules which dictate what to bet, points wise, or a consistent method of judging their ‘confidence’.
            As with everything in this game, i’m not sure there’s a right or wrong, and in part it has to be what you’re comfortable with.
            Josh

        3. For the most part I try and stick to level stakes although I do tend to go slightly smaller on larger races where I feel more is left to chance. I do think there will be times where the bookies have made a monumental cock up that you have to punish them and go bigger but I doubt I’ve had higher than my usual staking more than half a dozen times this year. The thing that baffles me is too many people try and pass of level staking as 1pt ew or 2pt. That is not level staking. You either go 1pt or 1pt e/w since the latter is 2 separate bets.

          1. Yeah I think people up their stakes if someone they follow has backed the same or they’re on a winning streak or trying to recoup losses, makes no sense to me. Sorry about this but not enough people have enough detail in their records to differentiate between what they like betting on and what they like to think they’re good at and what they actually profit on which in turn leads to false staking if they’re not using equal staking.
            As Nick says level staking is not 1pt or 2pt, it’s 1pt or 1pt e/w and as Josh says increasing stakes out of desperation or confidence is finger in the air stuff and you’ll end up losing more in the long run. Martin makes the most important point of all though, recording your betting to various staking plans on a spreadsheet is super important.

          2. For anyone to say thereโ€™s a right or wrong way to stake is getting ahead of themselves. The most important thing is to feel comfortable with your method and bet size. My own problem was and may still be understaking the ones Iโ€™m most confident about. Level stakes in an excellent starting point, but as the years pass you have to learn to know when to occasionally โ€˜pressโ€™, whether thatโ€™s the occasional bigger bet or raising stakes when you know youโ€™re having a good spell.
            I would certainly agree with Nick โ€“ each-way betting should be treated as two separate bets. Many of my winning tips were ew bets โ€“ that was of no disappointment to me because I felt the place element was such great value.

  2. No joy on Thursday.

    York on Friday:
    1.40, Devious Angel – likes to lead, distance winner, may get clear? 28/1 now, 1 point each way.
    3.40, Highfield Princess – trainer in OK form, Ryan Moore on board, has won in this class and at this distance, should lead, good draw. 10/1, 1 point each way.

    Good luck Martin

  3. As Josh has very kindly opened things up for free weโ€™ll continue the wonderful generosity by giving away our Lucky 15 e/w punt using the days best system selections absolutely free:

    York 1.40 Sienna Bonnie 13/2

    Leopardstown 2.30 Ebeneezer Perry 5/1

    York 3.40 Muntadab 12/1

    Hamilton 7.45 I Am a dreamer 15/2

    Your very welcome and good luck to those on board.

  4. A few sprinkled about that i like,
    York.
    3-40. Muntadab
    Newmarket
    1-35. Idoapologise
    2-15. Alpine Mistral
    Newbury.
    4-55. Sir Plato
    ew singles and a ew L15
    there is one at a big price that might have a squeak in the Newbury 3-25. Knight Crusader 50-1

  5. Cracking days racing which beats most Saturdays:

    Rodin Newmarket 13:35 1pt e/w 14/1
    Blackcastle Storm Newbury 16:55 1pt win 7/2
    Courtandbould Aintree 18:25 1pt e/w 11/1
    Ralphy Boy Two Hamilton 18:40 1pt e/w 17/2
    Johnbb Aintree 19:00 1pt win 4/1
    Paris Dixie Aintree 20:05 1pt e/w 7/1

    1. You lucky sod! And I prob owe you a beer. We always enjoyed this meeting, well, until they made a music night from memory and a silly price for entry if you had no interest in the band. It is a cracking card this evening, enjoy!
      Josh

  6. With Chris Albin’s dislike of switching stakes etc….not sure I’m comfortable putting up 0.25. 0.50 0.75 stakes on the nose or e/w….point taken Chris but going to do it anyway….you may well be right…yet having said that the selection in the 13.40 at York is 1 pt ew. on Sienna Bonnie, so will see how we go today with 22.95 pts to the good….selection based on times of runs….Bellarena Lady and Crazy land are the main dangers according to my figures…..the former was eased when winning on the second run so the time of the run is not a true refection of the horse’s ability so difficult to be accurate…..the two other 2 yo races are more tricky to decipher so will just have the one selection today and wait for easier opportunities …all the best with any bets today….

    1. Hi John as long as you can analyse the different stakes made and see what works then only you will know what’s best for you. I record a handful of peoples bets in a fair amount of detail but never follow their staking as when they stray from their usual plan it’s not really profitable. You do what suits you best, you put a lot of effort in on here and it’s well received by everyone. I would record yours if it wasn’t for the fact I have to scroll through to find them! I really don’t have enough time these days for that most of the time, so I’m missing out on your expertise unfortunately.

      1. Thanks Chris…overall you are probably right that in the long term on the nose level stakes is probably more profitable and certainly more professional….have tried to avoid races that do not offer a decent e/w option but very difficult, so split the level 1pts to hedge the bets does seem to work for me if I can get what I consider a price about about a realistic option with a chance of picking up some place money or even at extra places for some return , even at the expense of reduced profit ……damage limitation more than anything else in problematical races at the prices I play at where races that have the potential of value is better with unraced 2 yo olds and ok when, like now in my current slump in form, the wins have dried up….probably more of psychological thing in that instance and an exercise in damage limitation, rather than a profit driven approach when in a dip, protecting the gains and hoping to get a small profit rather than having a sustained run of continued losses of like now…….the other way is to be more selective in the choice of races and walk away from those that do not offer what I consider good betting opportunities from the limited range of races I think offer the best chance of getting a return….all subjective, of course.

        …..I keep a running total of the pts here on the site , currently 20.95 pts to the good after todays 2pt. loss, which is good enough for transparency purposes, rather than go into detailed analysis of the staking permutations etc., and would have to scroll through the lot myself!!!! and like yourself have much better things to do!!!….appreciate your kind comments and did make me think about my staking approach and is always a good thing to prevent complacency…..hope to get back on the winning trail sooner rather than later , whatever the stakes…..all the best meantime……cheers John

        1. 20.95 pts going into today less the 1pt ew (2pts as agree with Nick from yesterday, it is 2 bets @ 1pt each) leaving 18.95 pts if no return today, with 3 races on Sunday to look at to see if there is something worth tackling, though the ground looks problematical at Naas and not sure about the quality at Ripon…we shall see….

  7. agree today looks a superb days racing to get stuck into .. let the fun begin ! ๐Ÿ™‚
    here are my 0.0000001pt double dutchers
    1.15 Newbury 1 Soundslikethunder (IRE)
    1.40 York 9 May Blossom
    1.40 York 2 Bellarena Lady
    1.40 York 12 Sienna Bonnie (IRE)
    1.50 Newbury 10 Locke (IRE)
    2.10 York 2 Creative Flair (IRE)
    2.10 York 3 Divine Light (IRE)
    2.10 York 4 Kestenna
    2.10 York 5 Primo Bacio (IRE)
    2.10 York 7 Snow Lantern
    2.40 York 9 Uzincso
    2.55 Newbury 11 Sunline
    3.25 Newbury 4 Let Rip (IRE)
    3.40 York 15 Red Poppy
    4.15 York 4 Country Carnival (IRE)
    4.15 York 7 Hey Mr
    4.25 Newbury 11 Liberated Lad
    4.50 York 3 Currency Exchange (IRE)
    obviously the 2.10 york looks hyper competitve ..lol ๐Ÿ™‚ but have no fear i am ductching the lot of em !! ๐Ÿ™‚
    have fun
    shout to the boyz ! ๐Ÿ™‚

  8. yep i am the sites lucky mascot or village idiot one of the two …….. you should all find winners today ๐Ÿ™‚ .. nice to see you are going great guns still john …. excellent dilligent work from you as always ๐Ÿ™‚ (thumbs up emoji)
    indeed may we all have extra fun today !
    gb

    1. Bienvenue GB, I did Primo independently of seeing your post but glad you picked it ๐Ÿ™‚

    1. Ah yes, the 340/1 hindsight tricast is looking good there! ha. The x3 trainer micros coming to the fore, they are creatures of habit! I’ll be honest that race looked a minefield and I was happy to watch, for all that looking back winner ran in such a hot race on debut, blew the start, ran well, well break, cost a packet etc. No shock those three trainer’s horses have come to fore in that given my stats research.

      Were you wiser and managed to profit somehow??

  9. They’ve had a solid enough week, found winners anyway. We all know the rest will proceed to fall out the back of the TV for the rest of the day!

    1. .. and the news gets better, Spanish Mission won the 3:10…many thanks Josh ๐Ÿ™‚

    1. I don’t think it mattered, possibly, but winner had loads in the tank and another frustrating result given write up/my shortlist. Painful, unpleasant viewing after 2 fences when winner got the lead and was clearly loving life, which was predicted but not acted on. This game is bloody frustrating at times

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