2. Summer Jumps Angles (report TBC)
3. Flat Turf Angles (report TBC)
4.Other/Updates (Punting Pointers HERE>>> )
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x2 tips from me below, as of 9am, write up at the bottom…
#1 – 7pm Aintree – JohnBB – 1 point win – 4/1 (Sky, 888, BV, Betf, Lad) NR
#2 – 7pm Aintree – Tommy Rapper – 1 point win – 14/1 (bet365) 12/1 (gen) 2nd, 9/1 (R4) > 7/2
2. Summer Jumps Angles
(all qualifiers = 5/27, 11p, 0) (star rating ‘ ♦ ‘ = 1/5, 3p, +2)
7.00 Aintree – Versatility 5/1 UP
3. Flat Turf Angles
(all qualifiers = 2/16, 2p, -12.17) (star rating ‘ ♦ ‘ = 0/2, 0p, -2)
An decent day 2 at York for my musings, good old Kynren getting up at a nice price and the micro quals had a better day, highlighting the first three winners. I’m very close to having a good run with the 3m chasers, either that or it will go the other way. I should have done better profit wise in the last few weeks given how i’ve read the races, but a few iffy decisions with winning danger horses or ‘next best’ lurking, changes of mind, and a few winners with 1/2 points or or not at all. For all such things will always be part of the game/part of the challenge. I’m happy with backing Lucinda’s and would again at the price, no issue there given pre race thoughts. Going EW on him and leaving Harry completely was clearly an unforced error and the sort I need to cut out but I’ll take the positives with how I’ve been reading those races, while being close to untipped winners is frustrating, its more a positive than being nowhere near or winners leaving you bemused. Backing two, rather than one EW, has always been my comfort zone and I doubt you’ll see another EW poke for a good while! For all that Craiganboy looked like he was going to glide past and outstay the lot of them. Not form to get overly excited about I don’t think.
No Day 3 video from York but some musings…
I’m not sure I want to give back my tv change profit from Kynren and Friday’s handicaps don’t look as appetising, but some thoughts…
The 2.40 looks an interesting affair. There’s a few who’ve shown their best form to date on the AW and have to prove that the turf is fine – more so an unknown, but it’s a question for both the Haggas and Stoute horses (and Mick Appleby’s), for all they’re thoroughly unexposed. There’s two on the trends list that look interesting to my eyes…
I like Blue Cup (UP, too keen, game over before the stalls arguably, he will win more races when settling/stronger pace) in this, for all I don’t like his price, 5/2 doesn’t feel overpriced for a C2 handicap at York. He was fresh enough at Epsom and got no run through. That shouldn’t be an excuse and his trainer has won this race previously. I’ve no doubt he’s well handicapped and he will be flying up the straight. He is the one to beat I think.
Makram (2nd, bumped into one) is interesting at 6s. He had no luck in running LTO and really could be anything over this distance. It looks sure to suit and unlock further improvement. I don’t get the jockey bookings, unless the owner doesn’t like Jason Watson, who can do this weight and is on the Balding horse. Odd.
The other complicating factor in this race is the lack of pace on paper, and that’s usually dangerous from a punting perspective if falsely run – some may not settle, and it could turn into a sprint. Then who knows what happens. Sameem, at 66s, is the only out and out front runner in the race, or he was when with James Tate. He’s just the sort of horse Tim Easterby will do well with at some point, allowed more time to mature and a falling mark. One to keep an eye on. The market and jockey booking is suggesting ‘not today’ but maybe he is fully tuned up, will bounce out and be the one to catch into the final furlong. Or they hold him up! This race is there to be won from the front by a thinking jockey for all that this CD does suit hold up types, and they have plenty of time to wind up.
The 3.40... looks a minefield of a C4 handicap. There’s three ‘micro qualifiers’ for this and of those I thought the old boy Muntadab (UP) may be of interest at an each-way price. Again not loads of pace on paper in this and he can lob along near the front end. Maybe he’s not as good as he once was but in 4 runs at York he’s gone very close in three of them, and he hasnt run here since 2018. At least he arrives in form and you wouldn’t be shocked if this had been the plan. Declan Carroll likes a lower grade handicap winner at this meeting and Shawaamekh (UP)ran at the Chester May meeting LTO, first run of the season and first after a wind op, a meeting which is a good trial ground for races here this week it appears. He’s a CD winner also and this must have been the plan.
I’ve no real thoughts on the other races – there’s two micro qualifiers in the 4.15 and they both head the market, both LTO winners. Varians has a ground question and it’s his first run of the season, Tweet Tweet couldn’t have been much more impressive LTO, but a bit like Blue Cup, hard to say they look value, but that’s in the eye of the beholder.
After two half decent days I’m due one where I don’t mention a winner, but with any luck some of those may run well and the trends/stats lead the way again. They’ve done well this week, certainly as a ‘way in’ .
GL with any bets.
My tips write ups…
JohnBB – 4s is fair here and he’s the most interesting of those near the top end (if not generally) and if building on his decent effort here LTO, he’s the one to beat. That was his first try over this trip but he didn’t fail through a lack of stamina, staying on all the way to the line, just beaten by Happygolucky who probably has a shade more class. But no harm in losing to him, and he stayed ahead of the rest comfortably enough, chased home by that ever present G3 handicap yardstick in Spiritofthegames. (who also looked to stay on that decent ground, which gives the Skelton’s options, esp 3m vets chases if they so wished, as he usually finds something better treated now at that level, given his consistency) That run proves he has the class for this race, which is a slight drop and weaker on paper also. They went a decent gallop LTO. That was also a joint career best RPR (144), on the back of his other career best at Wetherby. They still gave him a 144 despite falling two out – he was going to be a clear second there, in a race which has worked out very well – he would have been chased home by Shannon Bridge, Ravenhill Road and Time To Get Up, who’ve won x5 between then since, Jonjo’s winning the Midlands National, after bolting up at Wincanton on his next start. In the context of this race, that’s very good form, and I think the ground was softer than ideal for him that day, his jumping a bit sticky. his Sandown win in Dec 19 was good also. He just ticks a lot of boxes, more to come from him on his 11th career start, 7th chase. He does need to prove he can back up LTO and he wouldn’t be the first Lacey horse to give the impression he can think about the game too much at times, but I just had to have him onside at 4s. He would be the ‘why didn’t you just back him’ winner in this, given all of the above, and he could win this like a 2s shot. Every box is ticked, including being open to further progress, which isn’t the case for many in here, plenty hoping a repeat of a former good run will suffice, the handicapper looking in charge.
Tommy Rapper – i couldn’t leave him at 12s here for Dan and Harry (who, as an aside, are 3/12,8p in CD handicap chases) on what, despite his age, is just the 21st run of his life, and 5th over fences. In Oct 19 he basically won a beginners chase on the bridle from a solid Tizzard horses rated in the high 130s. Something then went wrong, returning in Feb 21 after 499 days off. He ran a stormer at Exeter over hurdles in a C2, cruising up like the winner before tiring. That race has produced a few winners, Flemcara, Ask Dillon. He then ran in The Midlands National, a much better effort than the P suggests. He cruised around there, generally jumped well, and as they turned for home looked like he may get involved. His stamina then appeared to give way between 2 and 3 out. LTO in a G3 hurdle here was better than it appears on paper also I thought (you see so much more when watching the replays than just relying on the comments), held up very cold, unfancied, he moved stylishly around the field to not be far off them 3 out. He then walked through it, you can see one if his shoes fly off, and he then never went a yard after that error, allowed to come home in his own time. He has moved through his races this year as if he’s got more wins in him and he does have a touch of class, as evidenced by his 2nd in a decent G3 handicap hurdle here in 2019 (the same one he ran in LTO, where coincidentally he had Burbank stuffed that day when with Henderson) He appears versatile ground wise. Now, it could be that after whatever injury he had, he actually just travels well but now finds little for pressure – a physical or mental blockage, but at 12s there’s enough juice there for me to chance him. He may move like the winner for a long way through this and I think he’s got a big run in him. He’s shown more class than a fair few of these anyway. The market may guide, if he loses a leg I won’t hold out much hope. Although having said that, he’s gone very close at some big odds previously.
I didn’t really like the rest for one reason or another. I’ll probably never get Versatility right, he’d have won LTO but for stumbling after the last, for all a weaker race than this. His chase form isn’t quite on the level of JohnBBs and I preferred the latter, esp with his CD/G3 experience LTO. He can be ridden patiently, can hit one, and that weak effort at Haydock when I fancied him still irks me. BUT, he stays well, will relish the ground and appears back in form. He is well handicapped and he has more chase wins in him. He could run well, but 5s couldn’t lure me in. We shall see if I’ve picked right of those near the top end.
I’ll mention Burbank, (WON 15.4/1>10/1), who would maybe be mildly irritating at 22s, but a bit too much guesswork. They put the blinkers back on, Hughes gets a go (I think a David Bass would suit him, let him know who’s boss on the front end, make his mind up) – the blinkers and fences may spark a better run than LTO where he was woeful, and it has been a while since he showed anything over fences. He was in form for new connections in jumpers bumpers not so long ago, I do think most of his issues are in his head, and I doubt they know which version will show up. Even so, his best chase efforts/form arguably don’t match the selections anyway (esp from a ‘hot form’ perspective), esp JohnBB. And he may want his mark to come down a bit, I wasn’t sure he was that well handicapped. They paid 60k for him out of the Hemmings dispersal sale (blimey, what a shrewd businessman) and they’ll want more of a return at some point. Maybe one day they’ll try the National fences with him, Sefton, Beecher. He does have ability, it’s just getting it out of him. He will pop up one day over fences, again the market may guide.
The likes of Potters Legend, Minellacelebration and Sir Irvan could go well, but they are open to attack from better treated rivals and younger legs. They all look like the handicapper ‘may’ have their measure for now, but running their race could be good enough, they all jump, gallop and stay, and were in form when last seen. Minella loves it around here.
Quarenta is stuck on a career high mark also I think, and even his best may not be good enough if the selections show up. He’s a tricky customer but this could all be a bit too much for all that at his best he may look dangerous 2 out.
Mance Rayder couldn’t be in much better form, progressive, but he does have a massive class question/unkown. He deserves to take his chance here and may run a big race, but I just couldn’t answer the ‘does he have the class’, ‘does he have any hot form’ questions with a positive, but I suspect he’ll outrun his odds.
Fagan may lack the boot on this good ground, (no rain expected until 8pm, they watered 4mm yesterday) that appeared to be the case LTO here unless he needed it, but in theory JohnBB has him well held on that form, if running the same race.
I thin that’s the lot. JohnBB is the one to beat, if he doesn’t run his race then it does look open enough but i’ll chance Tommy Rapper at a price. The market may guide, but he’d give JohnBB something to think about if running to his best.
Pace wise… no out and out front runners in this so it may be interesting what they do. Maybe Harry S will switch things up and have his more prominent, not impossible. Johnny Burke won’t be far away and Hughes may try to go forward with Burbank, with the blinkers applied- that’s what they should do anyway, idiots if they’re not aggressive on the front end imo. Mance Rayder can race up there but doesn’t like to hit the front too soon.
Fingers crossed. Josh