Free Members Daily Post: 13/05/21 (complete)

Tip x1, stats quals, York, video, musings etc

1.Tips

2. Summer Jumps Angles (report TBC)

3. Flat Turf Angles (report TBC)

4.Other/Updates (Punting Pointers HERE>>> )

(Members’ User Guide/Info : READ HERE>>>) (to be updated)

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1.Tips

x1 from me today, as of 9am, a few ‘star ratings’ below also, write ups/notes at the bottom…

#1 – 3pm Perth – Boys On Tour – 1 point Each-Way – 11/1 (gen) UP -2 (typically 3rd after non-runner for all that Alexander’s was coming to win that but for crashing out at the last, Uptown Harry a bitter sweet result. Moving on)

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2. Summer Jumps Angles

(all qualifiers = 5/27, 11p, 0) (star rating ‘ ♦ ‘ = 1/5, 3p, +2)

4.45 Font – Glendruid 16/1 UP -1

4.45 Font – Megamegawhitething 18/1 UP -1

5.20 Font – Chapmanshype 2/1 WON 2/1> 7/4, +2

7.05 Font – Blumen Glory H2 4/1 ♦ 3rd 15/2, -1

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3. Flat Turf Angles

(all qualifiers = 2/16, 2p, -12.17) (star rating ‘ ♦ ‘ = 0/2, 0p, -2)

2.25 Salis – Saligo Bay G1 8/1 ♦ UP 5/1, -1

5.00 Newm – Serenas Queen H2 7/2 ♦ UP 2/1, -1

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4.Other/Updates

York Day 2 stats, trends, qualifiers, shortlists etc…

Thoughts…

A decent enough day on Wednesday, the main feature of the day being at Worcester of course! Such a shame MM couldn’t cling on given the odds, a game of fine margins, but the saver showed true battling qualities that he hadn’t shown for a while, +1, I’ll take it. Not quite +12 and not the first chase 1-2 i’ve flagged this week, but i’m happy with how i’ve been reading the chases/how they’ve been running since refitting my own headgear. I’m quite excited about those longer term. My York musings did ok, a 9/2 winner, 22/1, 9/1 and 10/1 places, which was exciting viewing all the way to the line. A few of you fired in winners down below, well done as always and thanks for posting.

To York Day 2... there’s some chat /’over the shoulder’ video above, with a focus on the x2 Class 2 handicaps… all the usual caveats, i”ll be spending more time on the 3m chase at Perth 🙂 but I’ve had a browse and…

1.40 – I thought Count D’Orsay (UP, picked the wrong Easterby horse, darn) was the worthy market leader here, hitting my trends pointers, Tim has won the race previously, the horse arrives in form, has course form, and has pace his side. The Chester May meeting has been a good pointer to this race also (5/12 winners). The questions he has – is he well handicapped? i’m on the fence, he’s a sprinter aged 5, and there could be room in this mark. He usually comes from off the pace also – that suited here on Day 1 and he has pace his side, but does mean he needs some luck/jockey to get his timing right, and it’s about weighing that up with his price etc. But, 6s may be fair. Of those near the top he looked the most interesting to me.

The bigger priced EW alternative, with 5/6 places, for me was Venturous (6th) around 12/1. He hits a few of my pointers and ran well at Chester LTO also, esp having blew the start. Maybe this mark is stiff enough on turf but he’s been in fine form this winter on the sand, winning from higher marks. Again, drawn 3, there is some pace his side, but maybe more high, which is a niggle also.

I will mention Kind Review.. my hunch is that he won’t be good enough, but he arrives on a hat-trick and races prominently of those drawn high. Maybe he’ll bounce out and stay there? We shall see, that one maybe clutching at straws, his form not on the level of the two above as yet.

2.40 – hmmm… i thought you could make a case for a fair few of these. I do like Brunch, but given his running style, I’m not sure I like 5s or so – his form ties in very closely with Hartswood (3rd 8/1) – and I suppose I don’t really know why there’s a disparity in price between the pair of them. I think the fact Brunch hits my limited trends pointers has me leaning towards him but from a collateral form/handicap mark perspective, given the odds I really should lean to Fahey’s of the two. We shall see who finishes where.

The other I likes if an EW price was Kynren (WON 17/2) – he arrives in form and has so many stellar efforts to his name in big handicaps – including The Ayr Gold Cup last season (Mr Lumpton, Nahaar ahead of him, solid form). He does appear versatile trip wise and has run well at Ascot’s stiffer 8f previously, and he was running on at Chester over 8f. I thought he may run his race here, and if running one of his better races, wouldn’t be too far away. I think you’d want EW as he doesn’t win too often!

You can give Matthew Flinders a chance, but he’s drawn wide and is usually held up – will he get too far back, in the context he’s 5s? Maybe. But he clearly has more handicaps in him and is a horse to track I think. Ouzo has course form also for all he can blow hot and cold, but he’s no forlorn hope either, for all open to attack from something with a smidgen more class/hardier, maybe. But I wouldn’t be shocked if he went well.

Anyway, you can’t back them all! It really looks a puzzle to my eyes but hopefully the two in bold go well and they may be in the perfect spot in mid div, behind the pace.

Do with that lot as you please. Agree? Disagree? Think i’ve gone mad? 🙂

As always, any questions do fire away, or any fancies.

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All of the above as per Wednesday evening, the below as of Thursday morning…

My tip write up…

Boys On Tour – 11s has left me slightly puzzled in this line up, looking like an over-reaction as to stamina concerns/unknowns, but more on that shortly. If this race were over 2m4f around here he’d be contesting joint favouritism I suspect, or certainly much shorter. All four of his handicap chase wins are around here.. 4/11,8p (all ridden by Stephen M) and in three runs this season Lucinda has got his mark down 7lb, back to his last winning perch of 115. That win was five starts back in August 2020, 2m4f in soft, a decent enough class 3, beating a couple of 130 horses who’d be winning again before long, six subsequent winners from that race. That was a Perth/career best RPR also, a 125. He and the current fav are the only two horses in this to have won handicap chases at C3, and he drops two classes from LTO into this muddling C4. He ran well here last time out, trying to keep tabs with a 144 and 130+ horses who bother arrived in fine form. That effort caught up with him as they left the back, he simply couldn’t keep up/didn’t have the class or pace, and then just plugged on. However I doubt many in here could have stayed with them for as long as he did. He usually comes alive in May through to August (all chase wins in that timeframe – 4/10,6p). So, he loves it around here, soft is fine, he usually tracks the pace, jumps well, has the class (and more proven chase class than most of these) and looks sure to run his race to my eyes…

The question of course is will he stay? (that’s a question for most of them in here)… he did bolt up in a point-to-point in his younger days and having watched a few of his runs back, shapes as if well worth a go over this trip again. He was staying on at Kelso two starts back over 2m6f in a 0-140, which gives me hope also. The other couple of times he ran over 3m can be ignored I think. One was at Worcester at the end of long season for him, the other was here four starts back in a C2, where he made a mistake at the 2nd fence which appeared to do for him. He’s also always hit the line hard here over 2m4f and in soft. This trip is more of an unknown, than a definite ‘he does not stay’, clearly.

He may loom up and fade from 2/3 out, but I’ve concluded on the evidence available that he’s a more likely stayer than not and he was overpriced. I thought he was more likely to be plugging on that some of these in here…

Of the rest… I started with Uptown Harry (Won, the bugger) who was my original poke I suppose before re-assessing with my ‘morning eyes’ . He was 7s last night, 9/2 this morning, which I thought was about right. I concluded, in the context of his price, that I wasn’t as sold on him as I wanted to be. I’m not sold on his stamina, he still has that to prove over fences, and ran LTO here like a non stayer – there’s a chance he did too much on the front end and it was a C3, but the horse he was with up top with ran a fine race in 2nd (has won since) and the winner was never far away. He did visibly weaken from 2 out and I thought that while the drop in class/an easier time on the front may help, the rain/soft ground will not. He handles soft, may be ideal for him, but it will tax his stamina more. He’s also 1/15 in his career, now 0/10,3p in handicaps – in the end, the price just wasn’t big enough for me but he could get an easy lead and he could be the one I’ve got wrong. He will be the one to catch I think and if he stays, on recent evidence, could be the one to beat. That last race is working out well.

I could live with Whoshotwho beating me, for all that I do fear him. Still, i’m not sold on softer ground, he still has stamina to prove and he hasn’t won since July 2018. He ran a decent race LTO 10 days ago, a hard race. That was his first run in 504 days, and he ‘could’ bounce. I thought 7/4 looked awfully short but he’s been strong in the market since it opened so clearly something is expected. He is well handicapped, for all he can be patiently ridden also, not ideal around here.

Roxboro Road has stamina to prove, and in this ground. He’s also 0/8, 0p with marks 111 or higher and has been thumped for recent victories, in so-so races. The yard have gone a bit quiet also, 0/23,2p in the last 30 days, and Haslam’s had six runners here without a place as yet. Winning four on the bounce is hard, and at what was 5/2, 3s, I could leave.

Niven doesn’t win very often and on the 58th run of his life (across multiple codes, he’s only 8!) goes beyond 2m4.5f for the first time. Maybe it’s what he now wants but I’m not convinced. A big stamina question, esp after the rain also. He’s 1/28 in handicaps in the last five years, 1/14 chasing, and clearly finds winning hard these days. Not for me. He was just ahead of the selection LTO but that’s because he chased a classy pace, and Niven was under the pump while Lucinda’s was still cruising, before those efforts caught up with him up the straight. Not for me.

Blakerigg and Craiganboy just have too many questions for me on recent evidence and are not getting any younger. The former is clearly hard to keep sound, this just his second run since Nov 2019. How the selection is the same price is beyond me but maybe i’ll find out why soon enough. If the Alexander horse wins so be it, aged 12, 1/17 over fences, not one to relay on and comes here on the back of a refusal and x2 PUs. One of those you just have to accept if they win, even at 20s I think, for all that at his very best he’d be in there pitching and he definitely does stay. I suppose that’s worth something.

Pace wise… Uptown Harry will try to make all and may get an easy lead. Boys On Tour can race handily also and over this trip/temp, I’d hope SM has him not too far away, lobbing along. He should have no excuse, it’s all what he does up the straight really. If he stays, I think he’s the one to beat on what we know and even if he doesn’t fully see it out, he may do better than a fair few of these, hence the EW I suppose, which is sadly now down to two places, typically.

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Three ‘star rating’ ( ♦ ) picks today, where I use my trainer stats qualifiers above as a ‘way in’ and see if I like their chances at the odds. I never look in depth at these races in the same way as a ‘tipping’ race, and very much a ‘horse led’ selection process, rather than ‘race led’…

Blumen Glory – I thought 4s was fair in a mediocre race. He makes handicap debut and arrives in form and shapes as if he’ll appreciate this step up in trip. He won’t mind what the weather does either. Some of his recent races have worked out well, and Tom Scu/Neil M are 6/24,8p together here in the last 5 years, +13. Mulholland is 15/82, 33p in handicap hurdles here in the last 5 years, +31… 8/32, 16p in C4, 3/11,4p with Scu on. This race didn’t look like it would take much winning at a quick glance, and he was interesting enough. He’ll race prominently also.

Saligo Bay – one from a Charlton flat angle and 8s has lured me in. I suppose with x3 LTO winners in opposition it’s hot enough but they’re all open to improvement and this one’s now open to plenty more stepping up in distance. His three races to date have produced 10 subsequent winners, the odd half decent one, and he runs at a track where Charlton does well. He’s 15/74, 28p, +24 with all handicap debutants in the last two years, and he’s 6/18,8p with 3YO in handicaps at Salisbury in the same period. Watson rides the place well, the yard are now going ok, and he looked no forlorn hope here at this price.

Serena’s Queen – maybe on the tight side but she’s got in the habit of winning, there should be bundles more to come and will appreciate this step back up in trip. Her first two races have worked out well to date. Beckett does well with handicap debutants at the track, 7/30, 14p in the last 5 years. Trainer & Jockey are 6/17,12p +10 together in the last 30 days, and Beckett has always done well with Last time out winners – 45/169, 81p, +20 in the last 2 years. Not all trainers have the ability to follow up a win with another. Solid enough. She should race prominently also, in a no excuses position. She could make 7/2 look generous, but just enough juice there for all I suppose you could make a case for a few, but she could have a touch of class, related to group performers, and she may well strip fitter for her return also.

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I think that’s the lot for Thursday. Fingers crossed a winner or two somewhere.

Best of luck, Josh

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

26 Responses

  1. A 9/2 winner and a loser on Wednesday.

    Two at York on Thursday:
    2.40, Matthew Flinders – ran well on seasonal debut, trainer in OK form, has won in this class and at this distance, good draw. 5/1 now, 1 point each way.
    4.50 York, Ben Lilly – a prolific winner on turf, trainer in form, has won in this class and at this distance. 9/2 now, 2 points each way.

    Good luck Martin

  2. Glad you pick venturious because I’ve just backed him. Went into my tracker at Chester. As you say slow away and stayed on well. Cannot afford to miss it here. And possibly (record would say!) better on the AW.
    Price is right though, for all that.

    1. cheers Mal, yep, I’m not going mad on either of those two races personally, but I did think enough juice there for a fun interest. Best of luck.

  3. just 3 races at York i fancy a punt in,
    1-40. Count D’Orsay, Autumn Flight
    2-40. Johan, Shelir
    4-50. Sashenka, Multellie

    1. meanwhile over at Perth,
      2-30. Celtic Flames up 6 and a grade after win lto but that win looked easy, he is 3/7 since returning from injury and is very lightly raced for a 11yo, 2 wins at Perth including a c/d worth a shot at 10-1. I did look very hard at Gortroe joe 11-1 and might have a small ew on him as well with most paying 4 places.
      3-00. Boys On Tour 11-1, drops back to C4 and all 4 career wins have come here. over this distance, ground will suit.

  4. No fancy prices today but all should go extremely close:

    Brunch York 14:40 1pt win 4/1
    Uptown Harry Perth 15:00 1pt win 5/1
    Frankenstella York 16:50 1pt win 4/1 (with one bookie and exchanges wouldn’t go below 7/2 as a single)
    Anghaam Newmarket 20:20 1pt win 6/1
    E/w Yankee 0.1pt e/w (so about 2pts total)

  5. just looking at 6-30 hunter chase at Fontwell, Shantou Flyer is the obvious class in this rated 140 but i was a bit surprised to see Keltus at 33-1, he beat the 127 rated Minella Daddy by 21l in the race that Shantou Flyer u/r. i know Shantou Flyer should walk this if jockey stays in the saddle .

  6. final selections/stakes/price
    York
    1-40. Count D’Orsay 1pt ew @ 11-2, Autumn Flight 0.5 pt ew @ 12-1
    2-40. Johan 0.5 pt ew @ 8-1, Shelir 0.5 pt ew @ 12-1, also had small ew’s on Kynren and La Trinidad
    4-50. Sashenka 1 pt ew @ 14-1, Multellie 1pt ew @ 18-1
    Perth.
    2-30. Celtic Flames 0.5 pt ew @ 12-1, Gortroe joe 0.25 pt ew @ 11-1
    3-00. Boys On Tour 1pt win @ 10-1

      1. yes rather unlucky there Martin, great pick, got the price, heads up heads down. Urgh. Next time

    1. Soft ground at Salisbury on a testing track for two year olds will require stamina as opposed to outright speed so will take a chance on Sir Randolf to at least hi the frame for a small return if placed……running green at Newbury in a C4 was not given a hard time and has a stamina profile with galileo and secretariat in the pedigree and the sire Churchill won over 7f on soft in aG2 with the dam winning 4/9 starts in C4 dchps…no superstar and ran 62.29 secs on debut which is 2 secs slower than the average of 60.37…May well have misread the race completely but an ok price in the market, being priced up conservatively an not a an out and out rank outsider, so suspect the bookies give this some sort of chance and do not want to offer a price that is going to do damage if the colt does outperform…don’t know , may be a complete donkey ….Anyway, the opposition is very classy Super Cub, the two Ardad sired horses in Arboy Will and Superior force, the former having clocked 59.61 over 5f on good going in C5 at Windsor @ 150/1….dismissed by me last time as the horse is a gelding and the dam showed only modest form….may be foolish to dismiss again but if really fancied by the market would be short odds on…..Superior Force has to be respected and cost $122,573 so someone was willing to pay top dollar and from a stable that knows how to win with 2yo, currently fav but too short a price…Jastar is interesting but have doubts about the ground for that one, the sire was made a non runner on soft, winning on good and gd to firm G2’s…the dam won on soft over 5f…..I like Night Candle though looks to have more speed than stamina and the other Churchill sired colt, Lawful Command was foaled 2nd April so may need more time to mature….the Cox and Varian runners from trainers who do well with 2yo here are longer prices i the market which suggests to me that the bookies think they will not be handling the going…just a suspicion on my part but if truly fancied to win they would certainly be a shorter price than they are…..Marsh Benham was foaled in April so will give that a miss and Showdiemlad was even slower than my selection being beaten 14.25 lengths so don’t think that will figure in the places…….so, hopefully, there will be a return for my selection in being placed at least for a small return…..

      1. showdiemlad comes back to bite me and gets placed at 33/1 ……ran 64.756 lto beaten 14.25 lengths so stamina came to the front in that race….horses Eh!!!!

  7. 3:40 Westow stakes York.
    Dexter belle.

    A little micro.
    Fillies with 2 to 6 runs.
    Last five years has produced 3 winners and a short head.
    I’m hoping more of the same today.

    1. not to be today Dave but I do like little micros like that, will pay long term! Thanks for sharing, Next time

  8. There were some big priced outsiders getting placed yesterday at York and I thought the old boy FIRMAMENT was a big price in the 240 at York.
    Shaped OK when 7th at Haydock last time, 3 wins and another 6 places from 12 runs at York and back down to his last winning mark of 93.

    28s generally with 4 places, 25s with Skybet who pay 5 places.

  9. 16.15. York…selection: Dark Moon Rising. 0.75pts e/w. and Spitting Feathers .50pt e/w

    May be foolish to focus on the two Kevin Ryan entries but I like both overall profiles and sod’s law if you put one up the other will come and do your selection, but having said that, they are both there on merit, having pedigrees that I think will be placed at least……as to be expected, there are some extremely nice pedigrees on display and found this difficult to select choices that have, in my opinion, a realistic chance of beating the short priced horses at the top of the market….Albahr may well win as the AEI of the horse is impressive with progeny in the bloodline mix winning 10/11 which is quite remarkable….foaled 7th Feb so no problems with maturity and is a worthy fav on pedigree…….Secret Strength .foaled 11th April so no …..Rizg, foaled 12th April so no…..Yaahobby, foaled 24th April so no……Gangway foaled 11th May so no though I really do like the profile on this one, but no……Cobra Kai foaled 1st April, so no though again did clock 61.4 secs behind Secret Strength but not for me…..that leaves Albahr, Spitting Feathers, Dark Moon Rising, Mattice and Lusail …the latter has more of a sprint pedigree so will give that one a miss, Mattice clocked 64.605 in a C6 at Bev so not for me …..Edinson Kevani clocked 63.03 secs behind Secret Strength so no…..Flippin ‘Eck foaled 8th Feb and the same sire as Gangway …has a decent AEI and dam unraced so may out run the odds but others better pedigrees overall so no and Another Bertie foaled 18th April so no so we are left with my two selections and the fav. Abahr……looks arbitrary but on the balance of probability those foaled early in the horse year i.e Jan, Feb March overall have a better chance as more mature…general rule of thumb ..of those foaled in May Gangway looks the most likely to run well but depends on how precocious the colt is and if mature enough to handle the going…would want a bigger price on that one before getting involved…….so there it is ,,,all the best whatever you back today and hope the above is helpful….

  10. 17.30. Nmkt selection: Adatorio half a pt e/w.

    Desert Dreamer sets a good standard winning over course and distance here in 59.46secs in a time that is better than average of 60.37 and may well be good enough to defy the penalty and win again as those that have run do have a bit to find on the times…..the horse at a big price that has had a run is Wrought Iron and on adjusted figures ran 60.09 on debut when compared with Desert Dreamer in a C2 at Ascot….though dropping 2 classes not sure if the horse will be good enough even though AEI is impressive and the bloodline 10/18 so that is very good….trainer is 0/9 with 2 yo so that is off putting…so will so no to that one…..I like the profile of Point Lynas but could not find further information on the success of progeny from the bloodline so that is a problem as incomplete info makes for an inaccurate assesment,…… given the pedigree profile alone makes this horse difficult to dismiss…another at a big price is The Charmer and has an interesting pedigree….the AEI is ok but for a safer half point will take the selection to put it up to the fav and get some place money at least…..

    1. A bad day at the office with 4.50 pts down the old pan so diminishing returns recently mean 22.95pts still in the bank but Dashing Rat coming second says it all really about the quality of the form…..

    1. Ah yes, 3/3 so far today, yesterday not too great! The notes for that race above not too bad either! 1st, 3rd, 2nd a strong mention – no 256/1 tricast here though sadly but a fun interest on Kynren.

    1. Thanks Nigel, all about the musings today. A frustrating turn of events for me at Perth but we live, try to learn and move on.

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