Free Members Daily Post: 12/05/21 (complete)

daily stats quals, York Day 1 quals/pointers / video

1.Tips

2. Summer Jumps Angles (report TBC)

3. Flat Turf Angles (report TBC)

4.Other/Updates (Punting Pointers HERE>>> )

(Membersโ€™ User Guide/Info : READ HERE>>>) (to be updated)

*

1.Tips

x2 tips from me today, as of 9am, 2 points total…

1/2,2p, +1

#1 – 1.30 Worc – Mr Mafia – 1.5 point win – 17/2 (gen) 2nd, agony, poor sod, -1.5

#2 – 1.30 Worc – Sandy Boy – 0.5 point win – 5/1 (gen) WON 5/1 > 9/2, +2.5

*

2. Summer Jumps Angles

(all qualifiers = 4/23, 9p, +1) (star rating ‘ ♦ ‘ = 1/4, 2p, +3)

1.30 Worc – Sandy Boy H2 9/2 WON +4.5

6.10 Perth – Countister 12/1 UP -1

*

3. Flat Turf Angles

(all qualifiers = 2/14, 2p, -10.17) (star rating ‘ ♦ ‘ = 0/1, 0p, -1)

1.40 York – Sam Cooke (16/1<) 8/1 UP -1

7.50 Bath – Mount Olympics 8/1 Up 25/1 -1

*

4.Other/Updates

York stats, including the info/qualifiers etc for Day 1, in the post below. They’ll be a separate ‘Day 2’ and ‘Day 3’ posts through the rest of the week. Day 2’s stats work will be up by Wednesday lunchtime.

**

My York thoughts…

What follows are not ‘tips’ but i’ve had a flick through, as per the video above and using the stats/trends pointers etc above and I will be raiding my sofa for some interest change to throw at a few horses. These sort of Festival races deserve much more time than I’m prepared to give them, but maybe the ‘think less’ approach will work occasionally, but hence why I’m raiding my sofa and not the bank vault ๐Ÿ™‚ I have spent more time on the 3m handicap chase from Worcester! ๐Ÿ™‚ (yes yes, we know what happens now) Anyway, having done all of the research above, I thought I should look. By all means do share any of your own interest fancies.

We shall see what the weather does but if the forecasts are correct it should stay as advertised, good, good to soft in places. That’s what i’ve assumed.

1.40

Illaraab WON 9/2 whether 4s, 9/2 is value here is open to interpretation but he may well be the most exciting horse in the race and on further consideration it may not be impossible that he’s a group performer in a handicap. He’s a winning machine, has course form and has shaped as if he’ll relish this new trip. Haggas is in form and I can see why he’s at the top of the market. He could outclass these. He certainly looks one for the placepot if you play it.

Luigi Vampa UP – I think he may be ‘the’ each-way bet in the race with the extra places. He’s 2/9, 3p in his career, won well enough LTO (1st run of season, 1st run in a TT), the yard are in form and I was impressed with his run here in September, given the trip he had. He looks more straight forward than last year. He is drawn wide but he may get out and across, or be ridden colder, which may help him even further. I just don’t know why he won’t run his race if the ground is ok, and he should be staying on. There’s more to come from him this season.

Labeebb 5th 22/1 more of a flyer and i’d be less confident than the two above, but he’s a bull of a horse and there should be more to come from him this season. That Ascot run was solid/ok form, although it may well suggest he is just a C3 animal, but he ran as if he’d come on from his return LTO, he may appreciate being held up/coming through horses, Buick jumps on for the first time and I thought he’d outrun his odds. It could well be he’s better on faster ground, which is what’s niggling at me, but more of an unknown and he has some size about him, maybe he’ll appreciate a bit of cut. He’s 2/6,5p in his career to date.

To my eyes, having trawled through the stats/trends above etc, and had a flick through the race, those three looked interesting to me. I’ll see if any can help me pay for my next round at the pub.

2.10

Manigordo UPI want him onside at 12s or so. He appeared to relish aggressive tactics LTO on his 2nd start for Tim Easterby. He was rated 98 at one point for Hannon so there’s still room for manoeuvre and in any case these sprinters can go on a roll and can hold their form when they hit it, esp if there’s more to come. He did it so easily LTO (for all it was a C4) and given his place on the trends above, the fact Tim has won this before, and that this CD can suit front runners, he looked interesting. I suppose softer ground is a question/unknown, but he’s a double figure price. He has more handicaps in him and I think it’s interesting they throw him into this, rather than take another smaller race or two.

Woven 4th 9/1>13/2 there’s more to come from this one also and he did well LTO, considering he fell out the stalls (he can do that) on the nearside, switched to the far side and had to run through them all, not beaten far. I’m not sure Good to Firm is ideal for him either and it was quick LTO. He’s fit, in form, hits my trends and Dods knows what’s needed to win this. Im in no doubt this horse is well handicapped and he had some decent C2 form for Simcock. The 4th from his Redcar race has since won off 86 and it was a career best RPR. The niggle with him, at what is 8s, is his running style. He’s patiently ridden – unless they change things up here – but the stalls are in the centre so Beasley can move him behind horses, off the flank. There’s enough pace his side, but he’ll need to get rolling, hope they come back to him and have luck in running. With the extra places maybe more an EW horse in that context. But both him and the one above have more sprint handicaps in them.

I think they’d be my main two in this for fun, with possible interest on Magical Spirit UP – also – Ryan’s record in the race puts me off a tad, and he ‘s 8lb higher than for his Silver Cup demolition job. However he ran well enough here NTO, possibly on the wrong part of the track, before an ok return at Donny, on ground too quick for him and his SP suggested he’d need it. In theory, aged 5, there should be more to come from him. He races prominently, and maybe Manigordo and he will have this between them from some way out, that’s not impossible, and if they do too much Woven can weave through and have this all sewn up. (i’ll get my coat).

If I don’t have anything to cheer from those mentioned above I’ll get back into my 3m chase box. I’ve no doubt overlooked some glaringly obvious formline.

Elsewhere… I thought Nahaar 2nd 10/1 may be interesting in the 2.40. I just remember his Ayr Gold Cup win, won in the style of a group horse in the making. I’m not sure what happened LTO, but it was a muddling affair and maybe he’s been kept for this. Clearly he’s a bit to find on ratings but he could be a sprinter to follow this season, we shall see. Or he’s rated as good as he is, unable to win handicaps but not good enough for Group races. Maybe they’ll have to send him down to Aus. This will tell us plenty, but Haggas doesn’t tilt at class 1 windmills at this meeting, as per the micro.

Anyway, that’s all from York from me on Day 1. Who do you fancy?

*

My tip write up…

Mr Mafia – yes he’s the old man of the party here but I thought he looked worth a go at 17/2 . And if he runs his to his best of last season, he could take some stopping. He’d have needed his return run when last seen, indicated by his SP/jockey booking/no cheekpieces, and the fact that he ran very well for a long way before getting tired. The CP return, Sean jumps on for the first time (2/6,3p for the yard in last year) and I suspect he will try to make all, jumping these silly from the front. The yard have hit form also, 2/14,8p in the last 14 days, 68% rivals beaten. I think this will be the time to catch him in what looks a weak race to me – well, they’ve all got some sort of question to answer and its not packed with unexposed types. He hasn’t won since September 2019, winning a C3 around Newton Abbot off 122, posting a RPR 130. However, there were a couple of decent efforts last summer, mainly his second run after a break at Southwell in a C3. He finished 2nd there to As You Like who’s a decent summer yardstick when on song (2nd to Forgot To Ask at Market Rasen recently) rated 123, having got them all on the stretch bar him. He also ran well at Newton Abbot over 26f, which may just stretch him, but again got all bar one horse at it off 122, beaten by Lillington rated 115 who’d go close in ok races on his next two starts, 18l back to the rest. Those two RPRs 124, 126, indicating he still retains plenty of ability. This is just his 4th run since then, and the handicapper has been kind enough to drop him 10lb. Some recognition that he’s now 12, probably not the force of old, but on the evidence of those two runs last summer, more than enough ability to win a 0-115. The media OR of those two races was 122 and 125. (in comparison, the fav’s been running in races with median ORs in the low 90s – but she is fit, in form, stays and looks sure to run her race) If the selection can bounce out and repeat either of those two efforts, he could take some catching here. He went well for a long way on his return and looked like he still enjoyed the game. If the ground is on the softer side that would be a question I suppose, although he’s run well/gone very close on Good to Soft before, for all it was some time ago. The pace angle and Sean riding have maybe made me more bullish than I should be, but he could thump this lot if on song. I thought it may be all or nothing with him (cue an honourable 2nd!) but I rarely get EWs correct, it’s just not me generally, and thought i’d have more on him and a bit on another one, with my 2 point limit…

Sandy Boy – I wanted covering fire on him as he is a stats qual and he did show much more at Warwick LTO in the visor, leading after 2 out and posting a decent RPR 120. He is just inconsistent but will appreciate the better ground than some of his winter efforts, and if he could build on that may be the one to beat here on some of his form – his Taunton effort in November was good off 4lb higher in a better race than this, 7 subsequent winners from that inc Kauto The King behind who’s won x3 since. His Hereford effort wasn’t too bad either. Hobbs does well here and while he may put in a sulky one, he could be the horse to come out of the pack chasing Mr Mafia down, and it’s best having some younger legs onside I suppose. Were he assured to build on his effort LTO and assured to repeat that Taunton run, i’d probably be more bullish.

Of the rest…

Court Duty is interesting to a point. I think he has the class to win this and he’s handicapped to do so. Some of his wins have been mightily impressive. On all known evidence he will be winning a chase this summer, maybe more than one. He does have some major questions to answer though – i’ve no idea if he’s fit on his return after 164 days – he’s never won after such a break, although not many tries, and the yard are not known for readying them that often. However, Flint did ready Amateur to go close in a chase on his season return, and he’s had a few other chasers go close. And he does have stamina to prove, which is a bit inconclusive. He’s finished strong at the end of 2m5f a couple of times to make me think that this is within range. That’s two big questions/unknowns though. The market may guide on him, but I just decided a few too many questions, even at 16s. He can clout a fence also and maybe rusty after his break. I hope.

I didn’t really like the others. Cushuish is the right fav and maybe a repeat of recent runs will be enough, but she steps out of mares company and into a hotter race/opposition than she has been beating. I thought something may outclass her, but then she may be the only one to put her best foot forward.

Cesar Et Rosalie wasn’t in form when last seen in the Autumn but maybe that was due to winter ground. He’s won fresh before, but not over fences, 0/3,0p 121+ days off. He is well handicapped again but is 2/2 at Uttoxeter over fences and you’d have thought a race there may be the plan, first race at Worcester. On the chance/hope he badly needs it, and with a wellbeing question after recent runs, happy to oppose at 5s. Ironically at similar prices, Sandy Boy looks more solid on recent evidence. Maybe the market will guide though.

I don’t know why Well Smitten does better than his recent runs. He needs more and I don’t know where that comes from, and he’s also not the strongest of stayers on evidence to date, for all he may get away with it around here. Not for me. Neither was Champagne Noir after his last two runs and again he’s got a stamina question, fading late at Donny over 24f. Again, could get away with it around here, but he’s been rubbish the last three runs now and CP didn’t appear to help for two of them. The yard are going ok, but trainer/jockey combo now 0/9,0p in the last year. If he bounces back from somewhere, so be it. His Dream also looks out of form and again I don’t know where a better performance comes from today, and for why. Up in class. Nope. He’d be a head scratcher, no wind op, headgear change, no break to refresh etc.

As would Diamond Brig based on his last three runs, beaten 43 and 35l the last twice, he’s been held up, made mistakes and never been sighted. He does have 1st time cheekpieces though, so that could be a reason for an improved run but they need to work and the yard have been quiet in the last month also, 0/7,1p, 45% rivals beaten, horses more generally finishing in the latter half of their races. A few too many questions for all his Uttoxeter effort 4 starts back indicates he has the ability to get competitive in a race like this, for all it may be deep enough for him.

I think that’s the lot. It looked a mediocre/winnable race to my eyes and I’m not sure Mr Mafia’s connections will find many weaker contests at this time of year where the oppo have plenty of questions. Sandy is the one to fear if building on LTO. I think the Fav needs both of those to underperform, but that’s not impossible. I’ll hope bith Cesar and Court Duty need the run.

Pace wise… Sean B will have one thing in mind and I hope over this trip that Sam Twiston leaves him alone, as his horse has been ridden forward also. The rest will slot in behind, Sandy maybe tracking. Hopefully it’s clear I’m on the winner from some way out, and that Court Duty doesn’t loom up full of running.

GL with any bets, Josh

Share on facebook
Facebook
Share on twitter
Twitter
Share on pinterest
Pinterest
Share on linkedin
LinkedIn
Share on telegram
Telegram

Post Comments

Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

27 Responses

  1. Two at York on Wednesday:

    1,40, Ilaraab – has won last 5 races, group horse in a handicap? Trainer in form, won in this class and at this course. 9/2 now, 2 points win.
    2.10, Aberama Gold – course and distance winner, trainer in form, has won in this class, should be able to lead, draw OK, 10/1 now, 1 point each way.

    Good luck Martin

  2. For me it’s not a day to get heavily involved at York so just a few bets for interest whilst watching.
    1-40. Ilaraab, Mr Carpenter
    2-10. Gulliver, Aberama Gold, Mr Lupton
    2-40. Nahaar, Summerghand
    3-10. Mystery Angel
    4-50. Mukhayyam, Bollin Joan

    1. 2 from above and 2 at Worcester for my ew L15
      Worcester.
      1-30. Mr Mafia 17-2
      3-00. El Borracho 7-1
      York.
      2-40. Nahaar 17-2
      4-50. Mukhayyam 25-1

  3. Mr Lupton York 14:10 0.75pt e/w 10/1
    Senita York 15:10 1pt e/w 16/1
    Cage Of Fear Perth 19:10 1pt e/w 7/1

  4. Two 2yo races in UK and both have had the value sucked out of them due to shrewd markets and in the case of 16.15 York the non runner bringing the race down to seven runners on account of the change in going….had to look at the races again this morning because of the changes but will still put up my original selection from last night:

    In the 16.15 York….selection .Jadhlaan 1pt win only.

    Tight competitive 2 yo race and all are in with a chance but the pin landed on the Johnston runner as having the best overall AEI with the progeny bloodline having 10 winners from 17 runners and the sire Dark Angel has stamina in the pedigree to handle the going change……Jungle Bee, having had a run at Thirsk has an obvious advantage and the time of 61.91 was ok though below average for the grade…..Project Dante is from a high class sprinter and can see why the bookies have made this fav and would be no surprise to see this win as has really good pedigree and will handle the gd to soft……Korker, the outsider is in with a chance too, being by Dandy Man…what puts me off Catch Cunningham is the dam being 0/10 , the same applies to Magic Warrior with the dam being 0/5 though out of Kodiac a great sire of winning 2yo progeny, though the dam was unraced. Red Power would be in with a shout, too, a colt by Acclamation that won a G2 at Ascot over 6f on gd to firm…..the dam was unraced but the bloodline has produced 3/5 winners….all in all a very good race to watch for the future…but, despite the going change and the reduction in the runners will stick with Jadhlaan to come home in front….

  5. 18.20. Bath …selection. 1pt win only Raging.

    There is no value to be had in this race as far as I can see with the winner coming from the top 5 in the market and will probably fill the places so no each way value there either…..I may well be wrong about the ew but I think the bookies have the advantage in terms of value for this race……the selection I put up in the C4 Salisbury 5f race coming in second to the winner Angel Bleu in a time of 59.99 secs…the nearest contender that has run is Poderoso clocking 60.65 secs over in an adjusted time with Raging…that run was over 5.15 f at Newbury in a Class 4 and from a more advantageous draw than my choice has a clear and obvious chance of beating Raging….the horse has a very good win strike rate of 9/14 which matches Raging 5 of around 63%, if not marginally better from a smaller sample size…though does not have the same high AEI that Raging has but is above averge in that regard……so an obvious chance……Fair and Square ran a C4 at Windsor in a time of 61.12 when compared with Raging, has an above AEI and is 9/14 , 64% in terms of progeny wins which is on a par with both, Raging and Poderoso and has the same AEI as Poderoso…….the dam was 3/50 overall …Major Gatsby and Madame Mango who both ran at Bath in a C4 at Bath 3rd May will do well to hit the frame as they have to make up a couple of seconds on the principles which is a huge task in sprints and cannot put up as e/w despite the big prices….The fav. Instinctive Move from the Cox / Kirby combo highly respected…Cox 33% and Kirby 47% have the best trainer and jockey stats regarding two year olds so would not put anyone off backing the faav. as from a high class pedigree and the dam was a stakes winner …overall above average AEI but not as high as Raging and progeny bloodline mix 1/1 so everything to like about this colt foaled on 18th March….and may well be good enough to beat my selection Raging but will have to be above average to do so and just prefer experience over a newcomer, despite the disadvantage of a wide draw…..all the best with whatever you are backing today and hope the above helps….

    1. 2pts down on the two selections today so 27.42 pts going into tomorrow where, hopefully will get back on track….

  6. 4.00 Worcester
    Jaunty Freyja
    I quite like the B Eckley runners (think Liberty Bella) and I’ve kept an eye on this one as her bumper form has plenty of depth to it, many of the horses she came up against have developed into 115+ types – form that would be more than enough to win a race of this nature.
    She was really keen and bled as a result on her hurdles debut but put that straight behind her a few weeks later with a really good effort behind some 120+ horses where it was good to see her run right through the line.
    I was mad-keen to take on Yauthym in this as she has shown little sign of improvement in five starts over hurdles and makes the market.
    Of the others, most are making their jumping debuts which gives Jaunty Freyja an advantage. Kahina Rules is the obvious alternative but I wasn’t that impressed with her finishing effort here last time after travelling well.
    The selection is only modest – a couple of her siblings were of a similar level but managed to win 10 times between them – but it’ll be disappointing if she doesn’t go close to winning this.

  7. 2.10 York – Gulliver 17/2, 5 places, currently 12.0 on the exchange

    2lbs below his last winning mark, 4lbs below his highest winning mark. 5 wins at Class 2. Has 4 wins at the course, 6 wins at the distance, 3 C&D wins including 2 Coral Sprint Trophies. Has won twice on soft, both at York
    Fit from an AW campaign with a rest from 2 April to freshen him up.

  8. Spot on with your analysis Josh, just unfortunate Mr Mafia was caught on the run in, the gangster deserved to win today!

    1. such a shame, feel sorry for the horse/connections, I lived in hope that Sandy wouldn’t battle past him there! But i’ll take the +1, maybe some did the RFC, that paid quite well. Always more likely when I’ve homed in on a lone front runner maybe.

    1. The York musings Nigel, not tips, hahah. (I need to get that in for when they all fall out the back of the TV!) But yes, happy with that more relaxed approach to such races.

      Still can’t believe Mr Mafia hasn’t held on, feel sorry for the horse, but I can’t complain, done by the right one. I think that’s x2 1-2s this week in 3m chases, inc the one at Ffos Las, which I ended up bottling from a tipping perspective, but pleased to be reading them right, just need to pull in a few more points from them.

      Josh

  9. Good start Josh over the jumps and on the York analysis…..we are all playing catch up!!!

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.