Below you can find the final results update spreadsheet through to end of April, including Adam’s Tips, my Big ace Tips and a separate tab for ‘Festivals’… below that you can find some brief reflections and thoughts moving forwards…
Overall the 2020/21 main winter jumps season, from 1st Nov to End of April was rather mediocre from a ‘tipping’ perspective, between Adam and I. It was looking rather good as March rattled along before the wheels well and truly came off.
Adam’s daily tips as per the sheet above ended up on nearly +22 points, 9am advised (15 mins monitoring, non-bog) which was clearly below our expectations. While there were a healthy chunk of 2nd and bad luck, that’s racing, and something that evens out over time. All being well Adam will return for next winter season, which should be more like ‘normal’ for him, with visits to the racetrack three times a week, and hopefully that routine and the quality of track side reconnaissance will lead to better results. A profit from the 1st Nov is better than nothing of course but he’d be the first to admit that he can do much better than that.
My own efforts…
Well, the ‘non Festival’ tipping wasn’t too bad, around +33 points from Nov 1st to end of April. I then added around +8.4 at Cheltenham, before ruining it all at Aintree and Punchestown, where I loaned back around 40 points, nearly everything ran atrociously and I gave the distinct impression i’d never looked at a horse race in my life. Really very poor.
So, from 1st Nov to end of April I ended on around 0 points, having hit a high at one stage of around +50 or so.
My efforts were also not good enough and after some soul searching and staring at my results I’ve decided that my tipping focus will/should be on 2m7f+ jumps races, mainly chases with the odd dabble over hurdles. Mainly Class 3+ but the odd Class 4 dabble also.
My record since 1st October, as of 1st May – ALL races over 2m7f+
156 bets / 20 wins / 50 places (inc wins, inc 16 seconds) / +83.6 points (9am/advised/non bog)
Since 1st May… 16 bets / 2 wins / 5p (inc two frustrating 2nds) / -3.75
So, out of the gloom there is something positive for me to cling to and work on. I suppose the blog first started with me analysing 3m+ handicap chases and it’s fitting I go back to them as the core focus of my tipping/analysis, having tried and failed to add more strings to the bow. I have no concerns in my ability long term when it comes to 2m7f+ races and chases in particular, and by focusing on them I should do even better. I feel like I’ve been reading them well for most of the season, as per the results above, but have frittered away points on challenging ‘festival’ puzzles and other races.
I suspect many have seen enough after this winter season, but there’s a few positives to take and with any luck we can further reward any loyalty moving forwards. While there are many positive elements to RTP and it’s not ‘just’ about ‘tipping’, (stats, trends, find your own winners, star ratings, community/chat/engagement, always something to read/watch, feeling part of something etc) this is a results business and the results this winter have not been good enough. We’ll put that right.
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The stats… the Jumps Profiles didn’t work as a ‘back-all’ approach but then they rarely do despite my best efforts on the research front. That was expected. With that in mind I tried to do a better job of using them as a ‘starting point’ and ‘way in’, homing in on those I most liked and was happy to put my own money on. I enjoy that challenge.
Those ‘star rating’ picks did ok… 100 bets / 17 wins / 58p / +11.64 (1 point win, non bog)
An 11% ROI wasn’t too bad, including 41 further placed horses, many close 2nds, so it could have been so much better. However, that’s given me confidence with that approach moving forwards over the summer, with both the flat and summer jumps qualifiers, from my latest research report which is out soon. My stats content has always fired out winners, just a case of landing on the right ones to make a profit long term. We shall see what the summer has in store on that front, and I’ll aim to pull in around 30 points + or so again and see where I end up.
As always if you’ve any questions or comments, fire away.
Josh
