Free Members Daily Post: 11/05/21 (complete)

Beverley pointers, stats quals, updates

1.Tips

2. Summer Jumps Angles (report TBC)

3. Flat Turf Angles (report TBC)

4.Other/Updates (Punting Pointers HERE>>> )

(Members’ User Guide/Info : READ HERE>>>) (to be updated)

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1.Tips

None – no races of interest on Tuesday. Some Beverley pointers at the bottom of the post…

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2. Summer Jumps Angles

(all qualifiers = 3/20, 8p, -2.5) (star rating ‘ ♦ ‘ = 1/4, 2p, +3)

2.07 Sedge – Lord Caprio 14/1 UP -1

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3. Flat Turf Angles

(all qualifiers = 1/11, 1p, -10.17) (star rating ‘ ♦ ‘ = 0/1, 0p, -1)

5.15 Weth – Zinc White G3 9/4 WON 2/1 > 7/4 +2

7.05 Ayr – Tukhoom

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4.Other/Updates

A few things to note, including some Beverley pointers at the bottom…

There’s now a ‘results’ update post for those interesting, just hit the ‘results’ tab or you’ll see it on the ‘blog’ dashboard.

On Tuesday I’ll see if I can find any trainer/jockey/sire pointers for York’s Dante meeting which starts on Wednesday. There’s a handful of C2 handicaps also that i’ll try and dig out some relevant stats & trends for.

‘Summer Stats 2021’ – the research underpinning sections 2 and 3 above is now complete and will be available in full to any ‘summer’ members next week. Membership options will return next week, likely from Tuesday 18th May, and the ‘summer season’ will run for around 5 months through to mid October. The monthly fees will likely stay the same, with a ‘season ticket’ considerably cheaper than the x5 monthly equivalent, all with a 30 day no questions asked money back guarantee after 1st payment. Hopefully the approach to the summer and the array of content is now clear enough. (the daily stats content above; star ratings; my renewed tipping focus on 2m7f+ races, mainly chases; chat, videos, ‘big meeting’ stats/notes as per Newmarket Guineas, Chester May, York Dante etc; big handicap stats, trends, trainer pointers, shortlists; etc) With any luck recent months haven’t put too many of you off although I’ve some rebuilding to do. 🙂

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Some Beverley Pointers…

On a quiet day above, and not wanting to dwell on yesterday’s awful efforts, not publicly anyway, I thought i’d try and find something to highlight that you may find useful either today or for future meetings. A few trainers/jockeys do well at Beverley but in particular it may be worth noting… (research thanks to Geegeez Gold >>>)

Kevin Ryan – (runners 1.45, 3.15)

  • all of his runners at the track in the last year… 9/35, 19p, +11 SP.
  • When Kevin Stott rides… 8/21,13p, +16 in the last year (they team up in the 1.45, 3.15 and they may all be worth a second glance)

Kevin Stott – (all rides: 1.45, 2.15, 2.45, 3.15, 4.15)

Appears to ride this place well, 13/50, 24p +6 all rides in the last year, 64% rivals beaten, and looks to be a jockey worth noting around here, for all he’s just very good generally. He is in effect Ryan’s stable jockey I think, and on all rides in the last year they’re 50/254, 104p, +108 SP, 60% rivals beaten, and certainly up north a trainer/jockey combo to note.

On a closer inspection, since the start of 2020 at Beverley in races up to 7.5 furlong, he’s 33 bets / 12 wins/ 21 places / 36% sr / +22 BFSP / BF AE 1.95. (today, 1.45, 2.15, 2.45)

Tom Dascome – (runners 1.45, 3.45)

He’s another interesting one here more generally, mainly as he doesn’t send much but they tend to be worth noting when he does… in the last 5 years… 8/29, 11p, +23 SP all runners, 61% rivals beaten. In handicaps that improves to 7/15,8p, +31, although only one runner here in 2020.

And finally…

Dane O’Neill (rides 3.45, 4.15, 4.45) –

he doesn’t come up here too often, usually riding for his bosses at Shadwell I assume in his role as second jockey, but they’re usually worth a look… 5/17,10p, 68% rivals beaten all rides Beverley last 5 years. Some of them can be short enough, but maybe for good reason.

So, something of interest to note today / future Beverley meetings, a ‘way in’ if nothing else. I’ll leave you to take a closer look at said horses if you so wish. I need to crack on with research for York.

GL with any bets, Josh

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

17 Responses

  1. Just the two 2yo races today and having looked do not fancy playing in either of them In the 13.45 at Beverley the best time was achieved by Caio Shark having run 5f in 57.97 a Doncaster in a class 5 so that is an impressive time being 2.4 secs above average…the dam is 0/6 and the sire should be able to handle the going as has won over 8f and 7f on soft…..The next in is Dandy Dinmont who had a run in Chanilly on gs over 5f and clocked 59.43 secs and Allezdance clocked 60.51 here at Bev over 5f so they both have a bit to do to beat the fav but cannot pu this up as a selection or put Dandy up as the draw is a negative and would want a bigger price about that one….Sapphire’s Moon by the in form sire Ardad is interesting but will have to be pretty sharp to beat the best two times on display, so a watching brief for me…..
    13.30. Roscommon will give that a miss as there are too many question marks over the contenders given the going so focus on tommorrows offerings……

    1. Just to note for future John… when Beverley goes on the softer side, being drawn high is no longer a negative over 5f there, and depending on how you look at the numbers, arguably a positive. Of the 18 most recent 5f races with 11+ runners, on good to soft through to soft, 9 of them have been won by ‘high’ drawn. Both the Ryan horse and the second there but their experience to good use, which prob helped negate the draw anyway. A boost for the Ryan/Stott stats above at least.

      1. Thanks Josh, will note that in future, I focused on the pedigree’s that I thought would handle the going….just proved that the speed figures I do are less accurate when the ground changes to gd to soft or soft and the ability of the horse to handle the going seems to have been a major factor…..Ardad is a sire that just gets good progeny and does not seem to matter what the dam was like….

      2. Good boost for your stats approach , too…..I try not to look at other opinions in races I want to assess (no disrespect) as that can cloud your own focus and I do forget to check stats related to the races I look at once I’m done!!!!!!! Vindication of your approach as a definite way into a race, and do find them find them a great way in for races I have no previous interest in……..like the the other day…..so will pay more attention going forwards as certainly a source of profits

    2. just a note on 13.45 Beverley……going and course experience seemed to have won Aleezdancer the race rather than the speed figures and Ardad, the sire of Sapphire’s Moon is certainly worth noting as the horse ran a very creditable race, so anything that Ardad sires is worthy of serious consideration regardless of going and distance in any future races….

  2. Three from my tracker:

    Sedg. 4:07 – Raecius Felix
    Down in grade, trip and back below last winning mark over CD in October. Better ground should also suit.

    Ayr 7:35 – Three Saints Bay ew
    Last win was in 2019, but off 98 and now down a further 2lbs to 83 for current trainer and down in grade.

    Weth. 7:55 – Ey Up It’s Mick
    His 3 wins to-date have been with the blinkers applied, and they are back on today. Was beaten less than a length last time over 5f at Beverley when missing the break and detached early on.

    Chris

  3. Glad you gave me a nudge Josh, reminding me to look at your Bev stats…backed Kevin Stott in the 14.45…..cheers

    1. ha- well, the nudge was more about the draw and not being put off a horse ‘just’ because of a high drawn horse over 5f at Bev when it goes softer, as the stats don’t back that up.

      You don’t need to change your app with your 2YO stuff, and i’d agree about stats clouding judgement etc – they can always be best to look at last, rather than first, and using as added context, strengthening a case of making you take a closer look again etc.

      Josh

    2. Another nice winner for the Bev pointers Josh. Teruntum Star. 12/1 this morning 11/2 SP

  4. 8.15 K N’golo (Kante) my fav player Lol. W Mullins has 3 in the race, this is the outsider.
    7.45 K Well Funded, 33/1 remember this from the previous trainer.
    5.15 W Carn a Chlamain 9/1. K Dalgliesh 3yo in c5 hcp. Josh could be one of your tip (glad I spelt that correctly) bits. Lol.
    8.25 W Denzils Laughing 8/1 Same c5 angle as above.

    Something to watch instead of the soaps.

    Mike

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