Free Members Daily Post: 10/05/21 (complete)

All tips x3, Stats quals

1.Tips

2. Summer Jumps Angles (report TBC)

3. Flat Turf Angles (report TBC)

4.Other/Updates (Punting Pointers HERE>>> )

(Members’ User Guide/Info : READ HERE>>>) (to be updated)

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1.Tips

x3 tips from me today, as of 09.01, write ups incoming…

#3.15 Ffos Las – Aye Aye Charlie – 1 point win – 10/1 (PP, BetfS) 9/1 (gen) UP, -1 – happy to have rolled the dice once on him there back over hurdles, at that price, but he hasn’t shown much at all, for all he was ridden very cold, but even so. He should pop up somewhere one day given the mark and the fact he’s shown some form recently, but I won’t be following him off a cliff.

#7.10 Killarney – Waitnsee – 1 point win – 5/1 (bet365, PP, BetfS, BV) 9/2 (888, BF) PU, -1, never at the races at all, not that it mattered as winner did it easily, moving on.

7.10 Killarney – Revelyn Pleasure – 1 point win – 14/1 (bet365, 888) 12/1 (gen) NR

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2. Summer Jumps Angles

(all qualifiers = 3/20, 8p, -2.5) (star rating ‘ ♦ ‘ = 1/4, 2p, +3)

2.05 FL – Crackle Lyn Rosie 14/1

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3. Flat Turf Angles

(all qualifiers = 1/10, 1p, -9.17) (star rating ‘ ♦ ‘ = 0/1, 0p, -1)

7.00 Wind – Stigwood G3 12/1 UP -1

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4.Other/Updates

Write ups…

Aye Aye Charlie – fancied a few days ago at Worcester when a NR I thought i’d best have another go given his price here. It looks a slightly deeper race although one where everything has questions and I think this more galloping track will suit him. The case remains the same – he doesn’t appear to have taken to chasing (now 0/9) and they switch him back to hurdles, off what looks a very workable mark of 119 based on plenty of his historical form. He has run well recently thought, esp his chase second at Hereford to El Presente (Badger Ales winner, decent 4th at Sandown) over fences, off 127. In his novice hurdle days he was running in G1, inc the Albert Bartlett, and running with credit. The yard are flying along, 5/19,11p in the last 14 days, 74% rivals beaten. He hasn’t won for a while but this is his first handicap hurdle and hopefully this switch back to the smaller obstacles may spark him up. In any case I couldn’t let him go off at 9s here in what looks a winnable race and if/when it clicks again for him, he’s very well handicapped and will take some stopping.

Of the rest… well it looks open. Kim Bailey’s is fav, lightly raced, a break since PU when last seen. He’s lightly raced but I wouldn’t say this mark looks a gift and he does have to prove he stays, for all he’s shaped as if he will just keep going. On balance I thought worth opposing. Imperial Knight arrives on the back of a win, his first over hurdles aged 9, and that may transform him. I never really trust a Ben Pauling horse to back up a good run though and again, i’m not sure 123 underestimates him and he’s up in class here. Everything For You needs more in this class but is in form, lightly raced and stays – he was a decent 90s performer on the flat so not impossible there’s more to come from 109 over jumps but based on LTO needs much more. Dolciano Dici arrives on the back of a good run but is now 0/17 but could go well if building on that decent effort at HQ.

Anyway, it’s open, very winnable and 9s looked big. If he translated that Hereford chase run to hurdles here, off 8lb lower, on ground which has some ‘good’ in it for now (did fine as a novice on softer), he should be in there pitching against this lot.

Waitnesee – to the Killarney National I head. I thought 9/2, 5s was fair for this one’s chance in this line up as it doesn’t look the greatest of races on paper and given John Ryan has won one of the three renewals to date, I did wonder if this has been the plan. He’s in fine form anyway (2/10,4p last 14 days, 59% rivals beaten) as is his mare, who’s just having her second start in handicaps and rarely runs a bad race. She needs some good/yielding in the going to be at her best and she gets that here although some ease is fine, and it was riding on the softer side yesterday after watering + rain. Her form in the summer into autumn caught the eye, twice running Galvin close in novice chases, inc a G3. He’s clearly a smart horse and won his next two starts after seeing her off, inc at The Festival, now rated in the high 150s I think. Her form after Christmas can be excused to a point based on ‘winter soft/heavy’ but she bounced back to form at Cork, her first go over 24f and she relished every yard of it, hitting the line very hard. I think she’ll relish this extra 2f here. 21f at Punchestown LTO may have been too sharp and again she stayed on/hit the line hard – however it’s not impossible this has been the plan and that race was used to just keep her ticking over, as she was never really put into the race. She’s fit, in form, and there’s more to come in conditions I think, this trip unlocking more, and could leave a mark of 132 behind.

She should also race prominently back over this trip I hope, in a race lacking much pace on paper at all, at a tight track where it can be hard to make up ground from behind. She shouldn’t be far away from the pace anyway, out of trouble. She looked the most interesting to me of the 9/2-6s shots at the top.

My other one has just become a NR so I don’t need to worry about him – he was ‘the’ pace angle in this which lured me in, thinking he could try to make all and I was interested in him over this trip, as I thought he’d been shaping as if worth a go. His form this season had read well in places (beaten into 2nd by The Irish Grand National 3rd three starts back) and I thought this may have been a plan, 2nd run back after a short break, a spin over hurdles LTO. Anyway, he’s out and Kevin Brouder really could do his own thing up front now on the mare if he so pleases. Bomb her out, get her jumping and make all – she will just keep galloping.

Dangers… Well Uisce Beatha hasn’t done much wrong but is usually ridden cold, which may not be ideal around here. But if he doesn’t get too far back he should run his race. Still, I’ve a feeling Waitnsee will have more in hand here.

For some reason I fancied the diminutive Fag An Bealach at Punchy when last seen, taken off her feet in a race too deep for her. At least I backed her to victory the time before, and there is now a question of sorts over the level of her form. Her natural cruising speed wasn’t fast enough to allow her to keep tabs for all that she plugged on. Rachael Blackmore gets the leg up this time and ‘if’ she can keep her closer to the pace/mid division, she should run her race/keep going. The ground should be fine. A big run from her wouldn’t surprise and maybe she’ll be the one chasing me home after the last, and then we’ll see what happens. Hopefully mine has long gone by then/has too much class.

There was nothing at bigger prices that interested me at all really. Most of these have major questions to answer, plenty of older horses, exposed, out of form (seemingly) etc.

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I had a good look at the 2.40 FL – I thought Land of Smiles would take some stopping again but couldn’t be lured in at 9/4.

Minella Bob may try to make all and be the one to catch, and it could be that those two fight this out. 9/2 couldn’t quite tempt me in, esp as the fav’s recent form/class is superior and his races have worked out well, inc the horse he defeated at Perth since hacking up at Kelso. If the fav jumps/runs his race, I think he wins. Maybe he’ll make 9/4 look decent but there are plenty of fences to jump and recent efforts will catch up with him at some point, for all he hit the line hard at Perth, fresh enough.

I will flag Minella Bob’s first time Tongue Tie…

Rebecca Curtis / 1st time tongue tie / all runners / 2008 >

66 bets / 18 wins / 22p / 27% sr / +47 SP / +80 BFSP / BF AE 1.57

They’re solid stats, winners in all sorts of races inc chases, maiden hurdles etc. She’s actually 7/20 at Ffos Las with said runners. Minella didn’t run too badly at Newbury in a much deeper race than this one, maybe going too hard too soon, but Sean returns and the TT may help. I’d be mildly surprised if these two are not battling out over the last couple but we shall see. A 1-2 maybe, but which way round…

Gwencily Berbas is an interesting recruit for the Pipes, first run since coming over from Ireland. He looks to be on a very workable mark for all the market is suggesting ‘not today’, at the moment anyway. First run after 227 days off, and first run after a wind op. Pipe will get wins out of him I suspect, one to keep an eye on, some ok chase form over the water.

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What else… i couldn’t be tempted into either of the stats picks for ‘star rating’ purposes although Crackle Lyn Rosie has been backed (now a NR)- she has run ok last twice in awful races mind, and this is only her 2nd chase in what’s a weak race. Now 0/10 in career but 2nd run in a TT and I suppose no forlorn hope – I just thought a bit too much guesswork, too many unknowns, but everything has questions in this, and maybe that market move is significant.

Stigwood goes at Windsor for my Eve angle (handicap debutants in May – very micro) and again, just too much guesswork – clearly unexposed, 1st run of the season, big step up in trip, and on the softest ground he’s run on. Will be fit? Will he stay? Will he handle the ground? is he good enough/well handicapped? The answer to all of those questions is I simply don’t know and 12s couldn’t quite lure me in. Maybe the market will guide, but clearly not the most solid of bets for all the type of profile where anything could happen. I’m sure he’ll show himself to be well handicapped at some point, and all of his races have produced winners, esp his Sandown debut effort – 9 winners and counting from that, beaten 12 lengths, the front two went on to be rated 109 and 114! And some 80s+ horses in front of him also – so I suppose on that basis alone a mark of 63 looks rather workable, just a case of what conditions he shows it/when. The yard are in form though and she can ready them.

As always, best of luck with any bets,

Josh

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

11 Responses

  1. Three two yo races today, not of the highest quality but interesting nevertheless:
    13.08. Catterick. selection: Mehdinah 0.50pts e/w and 0.50pts win only The Professor.

    Several with chances and the ground being soft adds an extra dimension of complexity to the process. Of those that have run, using Mr Professor as the benchmark for comparison, the horse ran in a C4 at Salisbury on gd/fm over 5f clocking 60.49 (average 60.37). Little Earl ran in a C4 at Windsor over 5.095f in an adjusted time with Mr. Professor of 62.09. Littletimyhoulian’s run at Muss. in a C4 over 5.0045f was run in an adjusted time of 62.94. Province at Ponte over 5.0136f was 61.85 in an adjusted time with Mr Professor. One for the Guv ran in a C6 at Bev over 5f in an adjusted time of 65.84 with The Professor. Mehdinah in a Class 5 at Ripon ran the 5f in an adjusted time of 60.31 secs with The Professor. Just on the numbers alone that puts The Professor and Mehdinah very close with Mehdinah slightly shading The Professor, though the former is having to step up in class today and The Professor does not….Little Earl would be next in so the market dose reflect the speeds above., with the exception of Mehdinah so , of those that have had a run the latter is better value in terms of time comparisons. Of those that are unraced Poppy Petal and Gabriella’s Spirit would be in with a shout, though both have their own disadvantages……with the latter the ground would be my main concern as the sire was withdrawn when the going was described as soft, the dam won on debut over 6f on gd and not a gs performer so two negatives…the jockey , however does perform a whole lot better at the track than the jockey on Poppy Petal, being 8-47 17% plus 0.75p compared with 0-15 0% minus £15.00…..swop the jockeys and I would be interested in Poppy Petal based on pedigree I think the horse will be better…we shall see. Overall, will put Mehdinah as the e/w selection with a win only saver on The Professor. 30.95 pts to the good so deduct 1.50 gives us 29.45 for the other two races.

  2. I suppose it had to happen BFSB have started limiting my bets , tried putting £14 ew on a 15-2 was limited to £12-50, not disastrous but worrying.

  3. Eaton Collina Ffos Las 13:30 16/1 1pt e/w
    Winningseverything Ffos Las 15:15 11/1 1pt e/w
    Stormy Antarctic Windsor 18:30 11/2 1pt win

  4. 2 yo race two. 14.25 Lingfield….with only 6 runners in a C5 will pass on this one….I did all the analysis and there are holes in all of them, which is to be expected at this grade. Banner Moonshine and Golden Rainbow are 62.1 and 61.44 respectively. Arlecchino’s Gift 59.64 so the latter has the better times. Golden Rainbow is racing in the same grade. Banner Moonshine is dropping down two grades and Arlecchino’s Gift dropping down one grade. Banner Moonshine has more of a sprint pedigree that would suit the AW than the other two.
    The only horse that has run above the average for a C4 is Arlecchino’s Gift. Of the unraced horses Angle Land has the only other out and out sprint pedigree that will suit the AW……..foaled 19th April is a negative as is being drawn stall 6. Freyabella is too short a price for a yard that is 1-72 with two yo (Racing post stat) and pedigree suggests more of a stamina horse than a sprinter…..similarly Full of Beans has an overall stamina orientation, though by sire Kodiac which does produce good sprinters…..so all in all quite a puzzle, especially as trying to assess the influence of pedigrees in lower grade races is more problematical than dealing with better quality horses, you tend to get more variation and “anomalies” the lower the grade, similar to getting more inconsistent performances overall….if there were an e/w option I would go for Arlecchino’s Gift, though not with confidence with only 6 runners….good luck if deciding to play and hope the above is helpful, but for me it is a no bet race.

  5. 16.55 Windsor 2yo.
    selections: Rattling 0.50 pts ew. Bonita B 0.25pts ew and speculative 0.25 pts e/w Profound Alexander. (2pts overall)

    Since doing the analysis the going has changed from soft, to gd to soft….how accurate a description, is anyone’s guess as there is a tendency to err on the side of gd/soft than just include soft in any going description so as not to encourage non runners…..I am not saying this has happened in this instance but this does happen, so we will see…..it is far easier to assess times and pedigree on gd going or gd to firm going….even on gd soft a little bit more stamina is required in the pedigree as on turf generally than if running on the AW surfaces….but too much negates the speed needed to compete over 5 and 6f in particular…..anyway…..

    .Beautiful Sunshine is an obvious favourite and commands respect being by Ardad, the first season sire that has already proved can get winning progeny…the time on the Nmkt run in a C4 over 5f is just above average for the grade at 60.21 secs….This is comparable with Bonita B’s second run in a C5 at Notts over 5.03f clocking an adjusted time of 60.22 secs. The first run of Bonita’s was 1.9 secs slower, so has improved considerably…whether there is more improvement to come and whether Beautiful Sunshine can improve on her time is the question but at 14/1 may well be an e/w option.

    Rosa Mystica clocked 61.285 compared with Beautiful Sunshine. Rue De L Paix clocked 62.03 with Beautiful Sunshine so have to improve to be competitive and not sure they are up to the task. Tippy Toes clocked 61.32 compared with Beautiful Sunshine and did improve 1.68 secs from her first run but as you can see still falls behind both Bonita and Beautiful, despite the improvement…her latter run was on the AW at Chelmsford which tends to ride faster than turf so think she will struggle back on turf to match the other two mentioned, though being a Johnston runner will be tough as teak and cannot be underestimated.

    Of the unraced fillies I like Mayfair Stroll, Rattling, and Profound Alexander….Mayfair Stroll foaled 11th April which is a negative an the sire showed more of a preference for good ground so will rule that one out……Rattling is interesting and could not find the AEI stats to make a full assessment, though the sire looked better on gd to firm going though the dam won on soft over 9f in a C3 hdcp so can understand the support for that one as from the Hannon yard and traditionally do well here at Windsor…

    Profound Alexander is interesting though the dam was 0/4 and the sire, ‘Kodiac was withdrawn on soft going in his career but at the price of 40/1 worthy of a small e/w poke…hence the selections above…may be foolish given that Beautiful Sunshine is a hot favourite and may well improve to be above average to win the second time of asking, form a respected yard but at the price I though worth taking on….all the best if playing

    1. bit of return on Rattling salvaging 1.96 (inc .5pt place part of the e/w thanks to the drift) so 1.54pts lost overall from 30.95 so 29.41 going forwards……

  6. 4.10 Lingfield, Miss Matterhorn – second run on the all weather, trainer in form, 5LB claimer on board, has won in this class. should get the lead, draw OK. 16/1, 1 point each way.

    Good luck Martin

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