2. Summer Jumps Angles (report TBC)
3. Flat Turf Angles (report TBC)
4.Other/Updates (Punting Pointers HERE>>> )
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x3 tips from me today, as of 09.01, write ups incoming…
#3.15 Ffos Las – Aye Aye Charlie – 1 point win – 10/1 (PP, BetfS) 9/1 (gen) UP, -1 – happy to have rolled the dice once on him there back over hurdles, at that price, but he hasn’t shown much at all, for all he was ridden very cold, but even so. He should pop up somewhere one day given the mark and the fact he’s shown some form recently, but I won’t be following him off a cliff.
#7.10 Killarney – Waitnsee – 1 point win – 5/1 (bet365, PP, BetfS, BV) 9/2 (888, BF) PU, -1, never at the races at all, not that it mattered as winner did it easily, moving on.
7.10 Killarney – Revelyn Pleasure – 1 point win – 14/1 (bet365, 888) 12/1 (gen) NR
2. Summer Jumps Angles
(all qualifiers = 3/20, 8p, -2.5) (star rating ‘ ♦ ‘ = 1/4, 2p, +3)
2.05 FL – Crackle Lyn Rosie 14/1
3. Flat Turf Angles
(all qualifiers = 1/10, 1p, -9.17) (star rating ‘ ♦ ‘ = 0/1, 0p, -1)
7.00 Wind – Stigwood G3 12/1 UP -1
Aye Aye Charlie – fancied a few days ago at Worcester when a NR I thought i’d best have another go given his price here. It looks a slightly deeper race although one where everything has questions and I think this more galloping track will suit him. The case remains the same – he doesn’t appear to have taken to chasing (now 0/9) and they switch him back to hurdles, off what looks a very workable mark of 119 based on plenty of his historical form. He has run well recently thought, esp his chase second at Hereford to El Presente (Badger Ales winner, decent 4th at Sandown) over fences, off 127. In his novice hurdle days he was running in G1, inc the Albert Bartlett, and running with credit. The yard are flying along, 5/19,11p in the last 14 days, 74% rivals beaten. He hasn’t won for a while but this is his first handicap hurdle and hopefully this switch back to the smaller obstacles may spark him up. In any case I couldn’t let him go off at 9s here in what looks a winnable race and if/when it clicks again for him, he’s very well handicapped and will take some stopping.
Of the rest… well it looks open. Kim Bailey’s is fav, lightly raced, a break since PU when last seen. He’s lightly raced but I wouldn’t say this mark looks a gift and he does have to prove he stays, for all he’s shaped as if he will just keep going. On balance I thought worth opposing. Imperial Knight arrives on the back of a win, his first over hurdles aged 9, and that may transform him. I never really trust a Ben Pauling horse to back up a good run though and again, i’m not sure 123 underestimates him and he’s up in class here. Everything For You needs more in this class but is in form, lightly raced and stays – he was a decent 90s performer on the flat so not impossible there’s more to come from 109 over jumps but based on LTO needs much more. Dolciano Dici arrives on the back of a good run but is now 0/17 but could go well if building on that decent effort at HQ.
Anyway, it’s open, very winnable and 9s looked big. If he translated that Hereford chase run to hurdles here, off 8lb lower, on ground which has some ‘good’ in it for now (did fine as a novice on softer), he should be in there pitching against this lot.
Waitnesee – to the Killarney National I head. I thought 9/2, 5s was fair for this one’s chance in this line up as it doesn’t look the greatest of races on paper and given John Ryan has won one of the three renewals to date, I did wonder if this has been the plan. He’s in fine form anyway (2/10,4p last 14 days, 59% rivals beaten) as is his mare, who’s just having her second start in handicaps and rarely runs a bad race. She needs some good/yielding in the going to be at her best and she gets that here although some ease is fine, and it was riding on the softer side yesterday after watering + rain. Her form in the summer into autumn caught the eye, twice running Galvin close in novice chases, inc a G3. He’s clearly a smart horse and won his next two starts after seeing her off, inc at The Festival, now rated in the high 150s I think. Her form after Christmas can be excused to a point based on ‘winter soft/heavy’ but she bounced back to form at Cork, her first go over 24f and she relished every yard of it, hitting the line very hard. I think she’ll relish this extra 2f here. 21f at Punchestown LTO may have been too sharp and again she stayed on/hit the line hard – however it’s not impossible this has been the plan and that race was used to just keep her ticking over, as she was never really put into the race. She’s fit, in form, and there’s more to come in conditions I think, this trip unlocking more, and could leave a mark of 132 behind.
She should also race prominently back over this trip I hope, in a race lacking much pace on paper at all, at a tight track where it can be hard to make up ground from behind. She shouldn’t be far away from the pace anyway, out of trouble. She looked the most interesting to me of the 9/2-6s shots at the top.
My other one has just become a NR so I don’t need to worry about him – he was ‘the’ pace angle in this which lured me in, thinking he could try to make all and I was interested in him over this trip, as I thought he’d been shaping as if worth a go. His form this season had read well in places (beaten into 2nd by The Irish Grand National 3rd three starts back) and I thought this may have been a plan, 2nd run back after a short break, a spin over hurdles LTO. Anyway, he’s out and Kevin Brouder really could do his own thing up front now on the mare if he so pleases. Bomb her out, get her jumping and make all – she will just keep galloping.
Dangers… Well Uisce Beatha hasn’t done much wrong but is usually ridden cold, which may not be ideal around here. But if he doesn’t get too far back he should run his race. Still, I’ve a feeling Waitnsee will have more in hand here.
For some reason I fancied the diminutive Fag An Bealach at Punchy when last seen, taken off her feet in a race too deep for her. At least I backed her to victory the time before, and there is now a question of sorts over the level of her form. Her natural cruising speed wasn’t fast enough to allow her to keep tabs for all that she plugged on. Rachael Blackmore gets the leg up this time and ‘if’ she can keep her closer to the pace/mid division, she should run her race/keep going. The ground should be fine. A big run from her wouldn’t surprise and maybe she’ll be the one chasing me home after the last, and then we’ll see what happens. Hopefully mine has long gone by then/has too much class.
There was nothing at bigger prices that interested me at all really. Most of these have major questions to answer, plenty of older horses, exposed, out of form (seemingly) etc.
I had a good look at the 2.40 FL – I thought Land of Smiles would take some stopping again but couldn’t be lured in at 9/4.
Minella Bob may try to make all and be the one to catch, and it could be that those two fight this out. 9/2 couldn’t quite tempt me in, esp as the fav’s recent form/class is superior and his races have worked out well, inc the horse he defeated at Perth since hacking up at Kelso. If the fav jumps/runs his race, I think he wins. Maybe he’ll make 9/4 look decent but there are plenty of fences to jump and recent efforts will catch up with him at some point, for all he hit the line hard at Perth, fresh enough.
I will flag Minella Bob’s first time Tongue Tie…
Rebecca Curtis / 1st time tongue tie / all runners / 2008 >
66 bets / 18 wins / 22p / 27% sr / +47 SP / +80 BFSP / BF AE 1.57
They’re solid stats, winners in all sorts of races inc chases, maiden hurdles etc. She’s actually 7/20 at Ffos Las with said runners. Minella didn’t run too badly at Newbury in a much deeper race than this one, maybe going too hard too soon, but Sean returns and the TT may help. I’d be mildly surprised if these two are not battling out over the last couple but we shall see. A 1-2 maybe, but which way round…
Gwencily Berbas is an interesting recruit for the Pipes, first run since coming over from Ireland. He looks to be on a very workable mark for all the market is suggesting ‘not today’, at the moment anyway. First run after 227 days off, and first run after a wind op. Pipe will get wins out of him I suspect, one to keep an eye on, some ok chase form over the water.
What else… i couldn’t be tempted into either of the stats picks for ‘star rating’ purposes although Crackle Lyn Rosie has been backed (now a NR)- she has run ok last twice in awful races mind, and this is only her 2nd chase in what’s a weak race. Now 0/10 in career but 2nd run in a TT and I suppose no forlorn hope – I just thought a bit too much guesswork, too many unknowns, but everything has questions in this, and maybe that market move is significant.
Stigwood goes at Windsor for my Eve angle (handicap debutants in May – very micro) and again, just too much guesswork – clearly unexposed, 1st run of the season, big step up in trip, and on the softest ground he’s run on. Will be fit? Will he stay? Will he handle the ground? is he good enough/well handicapped? The answer to all of those questions is I simply don’t know and 12s couldn’t quite lure me in. Maybe the market will guide, but clearly not the most solid of bets for all the type of profile where anything could happen. I’m sure he’ll show himself to be well handicapped at some point, and all of his races have produced winners, esp his Sandown debut effort – 9 winners and counting from that, beaten 12 lengths, the front two went on to be rated 109 and 114! And some 80s+ horses in front of him also – so I suppose on that basis alone a mark of 63 looks rather workable, just a case of what conditions he shows it/when. The yard are in form though and she can ready them.
As always, best of luck with any bets,