Free Members Daily Post: 08/05/21 (complete)

Tips x2, Stats quals, Victoria Cup pointers inc video preview

1.Tips

2. Summer Jumps Angles (report TBC)

3. Flat Turf Angles (report TBC)

4.Other/Updates (Punting Pointers HERE>>> )

(Members’ User Guide/Info : READ HERE>>>) (to be updated)

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1.Tips

x2 pokes from me today, prices record as of 9am (+10-15mins), write ups at the bottom..

#1 – 1.25 Haydock – Grand Morning – 1 point win – 15/2 (gen) UP 11/1

#2 – 5.05 Hexham- Blow By Blow – 1 point win – 8/1 (gen) 2nd, -1

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2. Summer Jumps Angles

(all qualifiers = 2/17, 6p, -6.5) (star rating ‘ ♦ ‘ = 0/3, 1p, -3)

3.20 Hex – Laskadine H2 5/1 2nd, -1

7.20 Warw – Garry Clermont 6/1 ♦

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3. Flat Turf Angles

(all qualifiers = 1/10, 1p, -9.17) (star rating ‘ ♦ ‘ = 0/1, 0p, -1)

3.40 Ascot – Fox Champion 20/1 UP -1

4.05 Notts – Swinton Noon H2 8/1 UP -1

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4.Other/Updates

Some pointers for The Victoria Cup below, including a video ‘preview’ of sorts – recorded in a way to try and help you solve the puzzle if you so wish – trainers in form, ‘instant expert’ (esp form on soft>heavy – depending on how much rain falls) and the pace maps – who will be where.

I haven’t looked at the race in too much depth, for all that they’re the hardest of puzzles to solve. I suppose ‘at a quick glance’ (and it was only that) I did like the look of Jumaira Bay and Acquited, and at bigger prices, Greenside and Harrison Point. Who do you fancy?

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Tips write ups…

Grand Morning – I thought 7s looked overpriced here and with any luck no further NRs although the rain continues to fall and I’ve assumed this will be soft+ come race time. This unit of a horse won’t mind the rain and arguably the more the better. He is 9 but lightly raced for his age, maybe hard to keep sound although this is his 5th run of the season and he’s gone well fresh before. He’s 4/7,6p over hurdles (2/4,3p in handicaps), having not really taken to chasing, which is a surprise given his size. He did however run his stablemate Mighty Thunder close at Hexham on chase debut earlier in the season, over 3m in soft, and that form hasn’t worked out too badly. He had some decent novice hurdle form in 2018, culminating in a C2 handicap win over 22f at Newcastle, staying on well. More recently – well in Jan 2020 he wasn’t beaten far by Portrush Ted over hurdles, and he’s since boosted that form. He found the G3 at Sandown all a bit too much for him after that, before returning this season. Last time out he bolted up off 120 at Ayr over 20f in heavy, doing all his best work late. That was his first start in CP, back over hurdles for the first time this season and he moved like he had so much more in hand than the 8lb rise. He beat Corrieben Reiver comfortably there come the line to my eyes (dossed a bit when hitting the front) , that one has more of a stamina question, and for the life of me I can’t work out why he’s shorter here. This trip promises to unlock even more and I don’t think we’ve seen the best of him yet, I don’t think 128 is his ceiling. His running style is a slight concern, esp as a few front runners/pace pushers have come out, as he can be ridden patiently – or maybe that’s as fast as he’s been able to go over 2m4f. This 3m trip, in rain softened ground, may help him to sit closer. If he runs his race he will just keep grinding away, and that could be what’s needed today given the rain continues to lash down up there. (well, everywhere) I’ll be disappointed if he doesn’t go close here today but in any case 7s just looked big.

What with the rain and the NRs I didn’t like much else. I’d have been tempted with Giovanni Change were he still running, for all that he’s hard to get a grip on but couldn’t have been any more impressive LTO. He’s a horse going places and hasn’t stopped winning yet over 3m+.

Jersey Wonder looks short given all his best form is on a sound surface. Proper soft is a complete unknown, maybe he’ll be fine but 4s looked short. I hope Sherwood keeps him in to avoid a hefty enough R4 but they must be pondering as I didn’t think he wanted it soft. But maybe i’m wrong. Corrieben Reiver was beaten by the selection LTO and mine looks a stronger stayer to my eyes. 9/2 plays 7s, I don’t get that, on paper anyway. Repetito has a big stamina question/unknown and in 3m around here in soft+ I didn’t want to be guessing as to stamina really, certainly not with a horse who’s yet to win beyond 17f. Sirobbie – interesting to a point but open to attack from better treated/more progressive rivals, but soft is fine, I think he stays just about (but still a niggle in these conditions), 70+ days off – another one that this owner has moved from Whittingdon to Bridgewater, 1st CP. (the first one to switch won well at Uttoxeter last Saturday) He may run his race but not for me. Similar comments apply to Trincomalee and he’s another who I thought was best on decent ground. Again, has the handicapper got him? Maybe. Ballon Onabudget has a big ground question/unknown now, I don’t think they’d have wanted the rain.

Dell Arca is now 12 but has had a break, 1st Visor, he stays well and was winning ok races earlier in the season – he may not want it overly soft but he may keep going when others haven’t and I could see him being in and around the places, but clearly open to attack from younger legs. But he could go well at a price, no forlorn hope maybe. The other four have even more questions whether it’s recent form or stamina.

Blow By Blow – I didn’t think when tipping this one to victory in the 2018 Martin Pipe, off 144, i’d next be having a go three years later, in an awful Hexham Class 4, off 110! The horse is having his 2nd start for Ian Jardine (who having questioned his ‘form’ a few days back has since had a couple of winners from his last nine runners, a few places, and they may well have turned a corner), having returned at Carlisle after 427 days off. He ran ok there to my eyes and certainly jumped well. He no doubt will have needed it and may have found it happening a bit too quickly for him. He now steps up to 3m and takes a drop in class – the median OR of that Carlisle race was 115, today’s is 95. Jardine is 2/10,5p at Hexham in C4 handicap chases and if this horse can’t get competitive here, I don’t know where they go with him next. Maybe the wheels have completely fallen off since autumn 2018, when rated in the 140s, winning a soft ground 23f beginners chase at Galway with ease, getting within 18l of Delta work in a G1 a few starts later, 2nd in a G2 in between. Clearly he’s nowhere near the same horse, but these conditions/his new trainer, could inspire a return to some form around this mark, or higher, and that would be enough to obliterate this motley crew. At 8s I just had to find out as he won’t run in many weaker chases.

Of the rest… well I wouldn’t put you off a saver of sorts on Absolutely Dyan – I wasn’t sure 9/2 was overly generous given i’ve a slight stamina niggle, but only that. The yard are now flying, I expect him to be fit, he will race prominently and if mine doesn’t bounce back to life, he’s the one to beat I think. I couldn’t work out why the Easterby horse is 9/2, 0/5,0p chasing, his last two starts mediocre.

I think this is between the selection and Sue’s horse, the rest have far too many questions/look so moderate, I wouldn’t know where to start. All about if they run their races, BBB will take some stopping if he returns to any sort of form for the reasons stated, AD the one to catch if he doesn’t.

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An ok day yesterday, a bit annoyed with getting the staking the wrong way wrong between Neville’s Cross and Forgot To Ask, which as I re-read my write up (it was much stronger for the winner) became clear – mainly as the winner had more chase experience, had ‘hot form’ and I thought was still well handicapped (his form/consistent RPRs above a fair bit his mark etc). Neville’s, while unexposed – in truth I didn’t know if he was well handicapped (‘assuming’ improvement for fences), he didn’t really have any ‘hot form’, it was his first ever chase run under rules, and sadly he jumped as such. Thankfully lives to fight another day, that was some cruncher. So, 2.75 points that got away, but a positive for getting it right to some degree, and indeed getting a ‘shorty’ correct. And id take +1.25 points every day of the week. We move on.

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Garry Clermont – a ‘star rating’ pick and I haven’t landed on a winner as yet this season, using my stats quals as a ‘way in’ – this meeting could be under threat with standing water but in any case I didn’t think he’d mind soft, and I was intrigued to see how he’d get on moving up in trip, which he shapes as if well worth a go. Some of his form has worked out well (Scaramanga beat him 9l LTO but since won a Sandown C2 fairly well) and when last seen chasing two starts back he moved like a well handicapped horse. That run LTO was his first after a mid season break also and he could come on for it, at a track where Jonjo does well. I thought 6s looks fair in this line up.

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I think that’s the lot for today. GL with any bets and if you’re lucky pin has landed on anything of interest, esp The Victoria Cup, do share 🙂 Josh

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

21 Responses

  1. I am off to Devon for a week and so thought that I would be first one in for saturday.

    An 11/2 in to 5/1 winner on Friday via Grove Ferry. Ainsdale was outpaced but finished third but on the end there were only six runners.

    Two for Saturday:
    3.10 Haydock, Ballinsker – his trainer dominates this race, has a low weight, has won at the distance. 8/1 now, 1 point each way.
    3.40 Ascot, Motakhayyel – up in class, has a run to get fit, course and distance winner, trainer in form, has won in this class, draw OK . 14/1 now, 1 point each way.

    Good luck Martin

  2. 3 two races races today:

    Ascot 15.05. Selection: Mohi. 1pt win only.

    Closely matched with Desert Dreamer but a better price. The latter ran 5f in 59.46 secs and Mohi ran 59.48 when adjusted for distance, course and going and was described as running green at Salisbury so hopefully will improve enough to beat Desert Dreamer….would have gone e/w but the original 20 declared runners cut to 7 hence the 1pt win only…..both horses ran above average (60.37 for C4 at this distance)….any new comer will have to be smart to beat either.

    1. Have looked at the other two 2 yo races over at Naas and found them both problematical and with the going described as yielding to soft decided to give both the swerve….of the two the 14.05b looks the more solvable even though they are down as sprints, these two year olds may find the going very testing and the horses with the most staying power should be able to prevail…there are some really nice pedigrees on display …trainers to note are Bolger, Harrington, Condon, etc, so quality trainers and with the quality of horses will prove competitive…personally, I like several and that is the problem…just too many to make a definitive choice as all have a realistic chance…one to watch for me, especially with the going change…….

    2. Well , another pt. given back…..so 30.95pts still in the pot…..non tomorrow and a couple to look at Monday so fingers crossed can get back on the winning trail then………all the best meantime

      1. You’re due a few duffers John, you were making it look rather easy haha. The graft/knowledge will pay off long term, never dwell on lost points, for all dwelling on performance/what happened etc never a bad thing, if only briefly. I’ve just stopped thinking about Dell Arca given write up/italics above!! The sod

  3. I do like the other Martins 2 selections and have backed them both
    3.10 Haydock, Ballinsker 15-2 6p 1pt ew
    3.40 Ascot, Motakhayyel 14-1 7p 1pt ew, also had a small ew on Marshal Dan 50-1
    only other bet so far is Lingfield 3-25. Isabella Giles 4-1 1pt win

    1. with the amount of rain about today i have had a speculative £2 ew on Politicise H3-10, would love the ground to be soft and i’m sure they wouldn’t have brought him over if a no chancer.

  4. Its been a painful week but on we must go:

    Magna Moralia Nottingham 14:20 1pt e/w 15/2
    Politicise Haydock 15:10 0.75pt e/w 25/1
    Symbolize Ascot 15:40 0.75pt e/w 12/1
    Global Esteem Ascot 16:50 1pt win 6/1
    Mick Maestro Warwick 19:20 0.75pt e/w 16/1

  5. Sometimes it pays to keep it simple, so Raising Sand 12/1 e/w 3.40 Ascot – course, distance, ground, draw and Saffie’s claim all positives
    Also like these two –
    2.30 Ascot Albaflora 5/1 – trust in Ralph and Rossa
    3.25 Lingfield Isabella Giles 7/2 – has had a good run, will love the ground, should act on the track

    1. Well done in the 2.30 James, an enjoyable last few furlongs from the crack team. Trust in Ralph and Rossa! She looks very smart.

  6. 15.40. Ascot…bit of fun with the pin for what it is worth….congrats to anyone that lands on the winner in this minefield…so will throw in my penny’s worth on River Nymph e/w for small stakes based on Josh’s shortlist, …like the fact the horse has won over course and distance…others I like for a variety of reasons are….Motakhayyel, and Full Authority so will have a small stakes investment on all three but not expecting a return….just a bit of fun…all the best if getting involved and if you pick the winner then all the plaudits will be well deserved………..

    1. This is a strange game….could not pick a winner recently…..River Nymph gives me a winner in an impossible to pick race thanks to Josh’s stats pointing me in the right direction….sheer luck given the big field..

      1. Ah John, never just luck when the stats point the right way haha. You homed in on the CD and top team, pleasing for the trends pointers, the shortlist shortlist covering the winner from four, the longer list a 28/1 5th. I should probably look a bit closer when musing myself over those but a positive for that approach with the heritage handicaps. Glad you used them successfully for a fun interest, that’s what it’s about.

        1. You give me too much credit…don’t do hdcps but saw your stats , so thought why not in a fun race …..burned the midnight oil to put up some losers recently and without much effort get a winner in a big field hdcp without really trying or expecting the horse to give a return……life eh!!!!

  7. Almost word for word regarding myself thanks very much josh and well done john also

    1. Well done Aaron, always good to read someone using the stats, at least in some part, to land on the right one! Would be good if a few more heritage handicap shortlists of 4/5 or so can throw up a few more winners as season progresses, but there is merit to it in those races- I don’t know where you’d start otherwise

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