Free Members Daily Post: 07/05/21 (complete)

Tipsx2, Stats quals, Chester quals, Chester cup pointers

1.Tips

2. Summer Jumps Angles (report TBC)

3. Flat Turf Angles (report TBC)

4.Other/Updates (Punting Pointers HERE>>> )

(Members’ User Guide/Info : READ HERE>>>) (to be updated)

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1.Tips

1/2,1p, +1.25 … ah, got the staking the wrong way round, although easier with hindsight, I suppose winner’s experience and ‘hot form’ could have swung it, but i’ll take it…

#1 – 2.00 Market R – Nevilles Cross – 1 point win – 11/2 (888, Betfred) 5/1 (gen) Fell -1

#2 – 2.00 Market R – Forgot To Ask – 0.5 point win – 9/2 (bet365, WH, 888, BV, Unib) WON +2.25

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2. Summer Jumps Angles

(all qualifiers = 2/17, 6p, -6.5) (star rating ‘ ♦ ‘ = 0/3, 1p, -3)

None.

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3. Flat Turf Angles

(all qualifiers = 1/8, 1p, -7.17) (star rating ‘ ♦ ‘ = 0/1, 0p, -1)

3.00 Ascot – Twaasol 14/1 UP -1

3.00 Ascot – Beautiful Bertie G1 5/1 UP -1

6.30 Notts – Zoom Zoom Babe 11/1 ♦ UP (4th) 11/1> 33/1 (ran ok, has races in her)

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4.Other/Updates

CHESTER MAY MEETING: Trainer & Jockey Pointers :READ HERE>>>

Chester Day 3 Qualifiers

Do note: I’ve added the Horse Race Base ratings top 3 rated where relevant (H1, H2, H3) and Geegeez Speed top 3 rated where relevant (G1, G2, G3), just added ‘ratings info’ to use however you please. If you’re short on time for example, or even if you’re not, starting with top rated (H1, G1) horses for further inspection may not be the worst idea but they are only a guide…

2.15

  • Armoury (jockey; RM) H2 G2 WON

3.15

  • Brian The Snail (jockey; PH) H1 G1 UP

3.45

  • Alternative Fact (trainer; ED, jockey; RM) H2 G3 UP

4.20

  • Speedy Boy (jockey; RK) G1

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2.45 – The Chester Cup

A trends profile of sorts… drawn in quarter 1,2 or 3 of the stalls, placed at least once last three starts and +1 place (inc wins) at C2 level. Would point to 11/12 winners (11/96 runners, 31p), and a ‘shortlist’ of seven, with all the usual caveats…

Not So Sleepy, Hochfeld, Cardano, Who Dares Wins, The Grand Visir , Nate The Great, Blakeney Point

Trainers (to have won race prev 12 renewals/with runners)

  • Trumpet Man, Hochfeld, Themaxwecan, Rochester House, Lucky Deal
  • Cardano, The Grand Visir , Reshoun
  • Nate The Great
  • Blakeney Point

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Write ups…

Nevilles Cross – he is ‘the’ thoroughly unexposed chaser in the field making his chase debut, and I found it fascinating that the in-form Lacey pitches him straight into a race like this. He was running well at Tabley in a point to point back in April 2019 when slipping on a bend, and given the size of him (visually from videos anyway) it’s no shock they haven’t spent too long over hurdles. IF he jumps I think he’s the one to beat and he may relish conditions and be transformed again with a fence/chasing tempo. At 5s, in what is a race where they’ve all got various questions, I was happy to take the chance. He could make that look very big and i’d be disappointed if he’s not a natural over fences. I didn’t want to miss out if it all clicks on his first go under rules. His hurdles form is decent enough, especially his Hereford demolition job which was very good ‘on the figures’. He ran in some C2 handicaps after that but didn’t run too badly at Cheltenham, bang there 2 out until they hit rising ground. He returned here LTO over hurdles, first start in 143 days, and visually looked like he’d come on for the run as they circled beforehand. The race that our Really Super ran a solid 2nd in. He ran well to a point but I expect him to strip much fitter. Hopefully Johnny doesn’t sit too far off the pace now the horse has learnt to settle/race properly, and can get him popping away. He won’t be too far away if he does.

Forgot To Ask – I wanted a saver of sorts on him as he is ‘the’ in-form chaser in the race, who will relish conditions (if it’s proper good), he’s fit, will stay and has the class. He is the most solid horse in the line-up and on what they’ve done recently is arguably the one to beat. The main selection is more unexposed, but this one is only having his 13th chase and on good ground he’s 4/13,9p in his career, and 2/7,4p over fences. There could still be more to come in conditions and his chase form reads better than most of these this season – he’d have needed the run in Oct at Wincanton but ran well and wasn’t beaten far, his 2nd to Versatility at Ludlow now reads better, given that horse would have won well at Kempton the other day but for stumbling after the last and he’d have been in and around Checkitout had he not come down, who’s since won twice and is a solid C3 yardstick. (we shall see if he can progress further next season, Twister having generally had a torrid 2021 to date, suggesting issues) I do think in a race with a decent gallop that 3m is probably as far as he wants to go, those races over a bit further. He returned after a mid-season break at Plumpton, doing well to beat Faustinovik given how the race panned out (3 runners, dawdle, second dictated) That horse was finishing 2nd for the fifth time in a row , clearly a bit soft in a battle, but his 2nds have been solid enough in the context of a race/oppo such as todays, ok form. He just looks sure to run his race and 9/2 is fair, and worth 1/2 a point just in case i’ve got the other one wrong, who I think may have a touch more class now chasing, but it is his first chase start under rules. I don’t know the jockey situation with Johnny Burke when it comes to Tom George and Tom Lacey – he rode this one LTO when winning at Plumpton, and rode Nevilles Cross LTO also – it could be he has the choice, I don’t know. Ciaran G knows Forgot To Ask well and there may be nothing in who Johnny’s riding, I don’t know, for all i’d edge towards Lacey being keen for him to ride him, and given his profile he may well have picked. But he could be wrong.

Hopefully those two battle it out, and Market Rasen haven’t been as enthusiastic as Worcester with their watering can. If this rides like that place did, it could be another 1.5 points loaned back.

If they don’t battle it out/get competitive for some reason – well its then wide open. Plenty in here have questions. As You Like is well handicapped again but’s had so much racing in recent months and was looking held in a C4 when clouting 2 out LTO. I could see him going well but he’s exposed (but now chucked in) and it could be he’s just regressed. These are his conditions though. Larkbarrow Lad’s had five goes over fences without overly impressing and now has questions. He’s a bit tricky and can hit one, for all the MR is a soft enough jumping test. The Hobbs team are still awaiting their Tizzard like resurgence also, still hit and miss. The rest have even more questions – I suppose Compadre is in form but can be held up, is 10, up in class, i could live with him beating me.

Red Giant is interesting to a point as he may blast off – he’s exposed now, but can just gallop and jump – i’d have been more interested if the visor was on – he appears better in that than the CP, but he deserved his break and if tuned up (again, no idea and no real record fresh but then he was on the go for ages before this break, so more of an unknown, yard can ready them) could go well for a long time. He’s open to attack from younger/more progressive legs of course, and race fit legs at that. But, I suspect he will make all somewhere before the year is out, just a case of landing on him at the right time.

Dancing In The Sky is unexposed over fences also , 2/4, but in a class 5, a class 4 and over 17 and 20f. He’s got a class and stamina question (more an unknown) and I don’t know if he will be fit after his break. The market could guide on that score and the yard are in decent form. He’s interesting, but not quite enough for me today. Maybe he’ll need this and will drop back in trip NTO, one for the trackers as you’d think he’s winning more chases this summer given his profile/yard, hopefully not today.

The other four had bigger questions to answer and were not for me today. The Vollan is having his 4th chase start (0/3,0p) but I don’t know what to make of him. They kept him over hurdles for ages and he didn’t look the most natural at times when he went chasing, and UR and two thumping defeats before Christmas, where i’d have wanted to see more. He will no doubt come on for LTO. Another who should have more races in him, but I was happy to leave today.

Pace wise… I Just Know and Red Giant like to get on with it, hopefully Forgot To Ask is just off them tracking. I’d be surprised if Johnny is overly patient on his for all he wont want to be ultra aggressive early, but when he rode him over hurdles he was more forward than some of the others who’ve ridden him. With any luck these two are side by side and will take it up 2 out.

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Zoom Zoom Babe – a ‘star rating’ pick for a new flat angle I unearthed yesterday afternoon, for the Flat Profiles report which is just about complete. This one is s ‘trainer track’ angle for Mick Appleby’s Nottingham handicappers, which is 30/115, 45p, +178 BFSP since the start of 2013 (14/54, 21p since 2017). I thought enough there at 11s, for all she’s drawn wide but that’s not impossible over this CD. She’s had a run, should come on for it and steps up in trip, which she appeared to stay well enough when trained in Ireland by Joseph O’Brien. She went close off 76 over there a couple of times and she should look well handicapped of 70 at some point. The stable apprentice is on claiming 7 and he looks like he can ride. Maybe today isn’t the day but there’s races to be won with this fillie, it looked an open race, and she could outrun her odds esp as she’ll be fit, which is an unknown for a few in here. The market doesn’t tend to guide with Micks, certainly not around here. They can fly in at all sorts of prices.

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To Chester… well, I haven’t had time to look so there’s no point in sharing any rushed, brief, worthless thoughts on that front. Hopefully you can use some of the content above or below to find a winner or two. No doubt a few of you in the comments will have fancies there, so best of luck as always.

GL with any bets,

Josh

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

30 Responses

  1. One qualifier on 2yo angle. Not the juiciest of price, unfortunately.

    1.55 A Get Ahead. 5/2 c cox/a kirby 5f distance angle.

    Mike

        1. yup, nice little drift! Market doesn’t have a clue sometimes, esp with unraced 2YO when no one is track side etc. Hope you had a go

  2. two early ones for tomorrow as i don’t think the prices will last.
    Regarding Ruth @ 6/1 – 14.35 Market Rasen
    Coeur De Lion @ 10-1 – 2:45 Chester 6p

    1. the rest of today’s selections and staking.
      Market Rasen
      2-00. Fingerontheswitch 12-1 4p, 3m in good ground looks optimal and dropping back into a C3 , been running in much better company and this is his best chance to get off the mark this season. 0.5 pt ew
      2-35. Regarding Ruth 6-1 0.75 pt win ( thought there was only 7 runners doh)
      Chester.
      1-45. no real bet in this maybe a tiny ew on Kynren.
      2-15. small win bet on Sangarius 7-4 for a bit of interest.
      2-45. Coeur De Lion 10-1 1pt ew, won here last season and warmed up with a fair run lto beaten 12l bt Elysian Flame.
      3-45. Lawn Ranger 17-2 4p, 2 very good runs here last season jus beaten a short head by Restorer 7-2 in the 2nd of those and is 2lb better off, has had a lung opener on the AW. 0.5 pt ew
      singles as stated plus a L15 on staked runners

  3. Barbados Blue Market Rasen 14:35 1pt win 6/1
    Future Investment Chester 14:45 1pt win 11/1 (or 14-15/1 on exchanges-I’ve split stake between the 2 and BFSP)
    Citron Major Ripon 18:20 1pt e/w 13/2
    Reverential Nottingham 18:30 1pt win 10/1

    1. cheers for posting Nick, as i’ve already had a fair bet the first 3 of the races just had 0.5 pt ew on them all hopefully we have the winner between us.

  4. Trueshan was beaten in to second on Thursday. But I do think that the horse can go high this season.

    Two at Chester today:
    1.45, Grove Ferry – ran well in The Lincoln, could lead, trainer in form, has won in this class and at the distance. Good draw. 11/2 now, 1 point each way .
    3.15, Ainsdale – has had a season pipe opener, down two classes, cheek pieces for the first time, Has won in this class and at the distance. 7/1 now, 1 point each way.

    Good luck Martin

  5. 3 for a happy Friday –
    14.35 Market Rasen Regarding Ruth 5/1 Gen
    14.45 Chester Future Investment 12/1 365
    16.40 Ascot My Swallow 7/2 Gen
    Singles and trixie GL

    1. Sorry, I thought the name came up automatically, it’s James Barker, Jim for short!

      1. yep sorry about that – it’s because the posts are ‘free to air’ I think – although if you prev used to log in, that may still work and ensure name comes up, or have to add it into the form for each comment I think. I’ve just edited the name slot.
        Josh

  6. 13.55 Ascot. selections: Wild Beauty 0.50 pts win only and Between The Sheets 0.25pts e/w

    Very good but very tricky race….the three I like are El Hadeeyah, Wild Beauty, and Between The Sheets. El Had foaled 2nd. April and has the benefit of experience coming second to Desert Dreamer in a C4 at Nmkt. in 59.71 secs (average is 60.37) so on debut showed the horse is above C4 level. Bellarena Lady beat El Had that day and went on to win next time out in a time of 60.86 in a C4 which is good but not exceptional and Amber Dew, which El Had beat that day, cane second next time out in C5 our pick that day Fabiosa, so mixed messages from the form so will give that a miss. Wild Beauty , foaled 11th March…..by Frankel so what is not to like, by far the best pedigree on display, progeny from bloodline mix 11/16 68% strike rate..of the 790 Frankel foals there have been 445 starters and 291 have won = 37% rate which is remarkable…stud fee of £175,000 has earned £13 million and counting so why is this horse 3/1 and not odds on?…The distance I think, probably regarded as being too short as Frankel was best over a mile and the dam has stamina in her pedigree winning over 8f and is a stakes winner herself on gs.the market suggests 5f too sharp but with the going on a galloping track speed is not everything so not one to dismiss and at 3/1 is value. The other horse I like is Between The Sheets but that is a bit of a punt as the sire is a USA miler on the dirt though has won in sloppy conditions…the dam is 4/7 and won on debut though does appear not to act as well on g/s but at 25/1 worth a small e/w punt so my too against the field are as above for small stakes only

    1. 16.35 Cork. Another puzzle and tricky again, so small stakes.

      Selection. Benevolent 0.25 pts e/w

      At the top of the market prefer Harmony Rose as a win only option to Amalfi Coast as I think the filly has the better overall pedigree than Amalfi Coast, especially on the dam’s side with Harmony Roses Dam , Evil Spell being 5/22 overall and 2/14 stakes winner against the dam of Amalfi Coast being 0/9 runs……both have had a run though Amalfi had a troubled passage so can forgive that debut run as sure to improveand has more of a turf pedigree with stamina that will suit todays conditions……..tricky choice between the two market principles….. but think Harmony will beat the colt but will ignore the top of the market , hunting for for some e/w value……. I like several,,,Cherry Bloom, Benevolent, Volarossa, , Strapped, Charlie De Rio…but will take a chance on Benevolent of the Harrington stable, being prepared to forgive the run when behind Charlie De Rio as ran too keen that day and not given a hard time…overall I find the Irish form very difficult to assess and do not have the same confidence with the form as on UK tracks so caution advised and small stakes only.

      1. Well did mention Strapped as one I liked but cannot claim any credit as the only thing I got right was that it was a tricky race so minus 0.50pts =32.45…

  7. 17.20. Ripon….another lower grade race not to get too excited about but with 8 runners a bit of e/w value.

    Selections: Totes Emosh and Berry Quick 0.25 pts e/w for a bit of value against Dairerin

    1. Blank day all round so 1pt loss…31.95 left for another day….congrats to all who picked winners today

  8. Josh, am I correct in saying BEAUTIFUL BERTIE 3pm. A R Charlton Angle.
    C2, 3yo Hcp.. 5/1

    Mike

    1. Hi Mike – yep – he has been posted above in the Flat angles 🙂

      I’ve culled some of last year’s but that one I’ve kept, and Beckett’s and a couple of others.

      Charlton’s turf runners have been needing the run so far this season so I expect him to strip fitter for his return – I found it hard to know whether he’d be good enough/what he’d have in hand etc but they’re all unexposed 3YO, and he does know how to win/will show more this season. Maybe today!

      Josh

  9. …Ta for something Josh, can’t remember what it was because I forgot to ask ? Lol

    1. Ha! cheers, a rare good use of a ‘saver’, in hindsight the wrong way round, and the write up for winner is a fair bit stronger, but I won’t complain. Onwards. A few winners scattered around again, and you always appear to land on plenty of them- you must be the charm! 🙂

      1. We are in a bit of a positive street at the mo, good to have given the last few months, fingers crossed it sticks around 🙂

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