Free Members Daily Post: 06/05/21 (complete)

All tips x2, stats quals, Chester Day 2 quals

1.Tips

2. Summer Jumps Angles (report TBC)

3. Flat Turf Angles (report TBC)

4.Other/Updates (Punting Pointers HERE>>> )

(Members’ User Guide/Info : READ HERE>>>) (to be updated)

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1.Tips

x2 from me today, as of 9am, write ups at the bottom as well as other notes…

#1 – 3.35 Worc – Aye Aye Charlie – 1 point win – 11/2 (gen) NR

#2 – 4.07 Worc – Santon – 1 point win– 6/1 (Sky, PP, BetfS) 11/2 (bet365) 5/1 (the rest) PU -1, never looked that happy, maybe the ground which times suggest is softer than expected esp as no rain today, but maybe he’s not one to keep making excuses for.

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2. Summer Jumps Angles

(all qualifiers = 2/17, 6p, -6.5) (star rating ‘ ♦ ‘ = 0/3, 1p, -3)

1.00 Worc – Shareef Star 6/1 WON 6/1 > 10/3

2.00 Worc – No Quarter Asked 14/1 UP -1

2.25 Hunt – Rooster Cogburn H1 11/8 2nd, -1

2.55 Hunt – Remember The Man 9/1 UP -1

3.25 Hunt – Caroles Templer 14/1 UP -1

3.35 Worc – Singapore Saga H2 7/2 UP -1

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3. Flat Turf Angles

(all qualifiers = 1/5, 1p, -4.17) (star rating ‘ ♦ ‘ = 0/0, 0p, 0)

None.

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4.Other/Updates

CHESTER MAY MEETING: Trainer & Jockey Pointers :READ HERE>>>

Chester Day 2 Qualifiers

Do note: I’ve added the Horse Race Base ratings top 3 rated where relevant (H1, H2, H3) and Geegeez Speed top 3 rated where relevant (G1, G2, G3), just added ‘ratings info’ to use however you please. If you’re short on time for example, or even if you’re not, starting with top rated (H1, G1) horses for further inspection may not be the worst idea but they are only a guide…

1.45

  • Lihou (trainer; D Evans) UP

2.15

  • Maximal (jockey; RK) H2 2nd
  • Ontario (trainer; AOB) H3 G3 UP

3.15

  • Japan (trainer; AOB) WON

3.45

  • Snow Ocean (trainer; D Evans) G1 UP
  • Spirit Dancer (jockey; PH) G2 2nd

4.15

  • Russellinthebushes (jockey; RK) H1 G1 2nd

4.45

  • Alpine Stroll (jockey; RK) G1 UP

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My tips write ups…

Aye Aye Charlie – while the 2m7f+ chases take priority and will be my main focus moving forwards, i didn’t too badly on the handful of times I dived into 2m7f+ hurdles last season, esp 10< runners, so fingers crossed.

Can the real Aye Aye Charlie please step forward. This lot are toast if he does and he will make 11/2 look massive come 3.45 or so. He runs off 119 over hurdles, his chase mark at the start of this season a 127, where he ran El Presente close at Hereford, overhauled late. He’d go on to win the Badger Ales as we know and run a fine 4th in the Sandown Gold Cup handicap to close last season, off 147. That is the best piece of recent form in this race by some way, including ‘on the figures/clock’. His Newcastle run after that wasn’t too bad either, those two RPRs 131 and 126. There’s no doubt he’s chucked in over timber to my eyes, just whether this switch back to hurdles can spark him up. He’s never looked totally in love with the chasing game, now 0/9, but it’s not exactly like he’s been running badly over fences, for all his last two efforts after a break can be excused.

This is the first handicap hurdle the horses has ever run in (and only 7th handicap of his life) and its his first hurdle start since he ran a fine 8th in Minella Indo’s G1 Albert Bartlett of 2019 when rated 140. There’s nothing in here that could ever match such form. He has numerous graded novice hurdle efforts, including in the G1 at Aintree, and various other pieces of form, to clearly indicate there’s a decent horse in there somewhere and if he can’t show it now in a C4 around Worcester, off this mark, they really will be scratching their heads. I don’t think he has an attitude problem but maybe doesn’t like being in front too long. He’s fit, he can race prominently, he should just keep galloping, and the team couldn’t be in better form – Fergal is 5/15, 7p, 68% rivals beaten in the last 14 days, Paddy riding as well as ever, 4/12,6p 73% rivals beaten in the same two weeks.

At 11/2 I thought there was enough there in this line up. If the switch to timber works and he runs his race I didn’t think this lot would live wit him. Hopefully the showers stay away and/or don’t affect this ground too much for all that a little bit of juice wouldn’t be an excuse.

If he doesn’t, Singapore Saga may take it but I didn’t think overpriced, one for the stats quals though – that was a weak enough C5 LTO for all she did it easily, but was held in a c4 before that, up 9lb. It could be she needs it rattling quick also but in any case, I could leave/oppose at the prices.

The Distant Lady is interesting to a point, could be the main danger. McPherson is flying, 4/18, 8p last 30 days, 3/8,4p last 14 (67% rivals beaten), and this mare is arguably best fresh. I think Aye Aye Charlie is much better handicapped and has more class, but if he falters, I could see her picking up the pieces as her hurdle form is beter than most of the others, and it’s not impossible there’s a smidgen more of improvement to come, 1/7,4p in handicap hurdles so far.

Jonjo has gone a bit ‘so so’ again, is he in form, out of form, who really knows?! 2/32, 7p last 30 days, 0/10,1p last 14. This horse is returning after 176 days off, a winner when last seen. 4s didn’t look generous given he may come on for it a tad and again, open to attack from better treated rivals i think. Although he’s only 6, LTO was a career best, and there should be more to come at some point.

The rest had a few too many questions for me, the odd one a fitness unknown etc. If Charlie can’t go close here, i’m not sure in what circumstances you could ever back him again really, but time will tell.

Santon – plenty of 5s still around at 9.15 which I thought was a shade overpriced in this race, mainly as I think his last two runs are the best pieces of form in the race, he’s still open to improvement, Alan King’s in decent form, does very well at Worcester with what he sends (14/57, 43p all runners last 5 years, 69% rivals beaten) and the horse is doing the odd thing different – nothing major, for all I think this is much weaker than LTO, but he will appreciate this slight drop in trip, only slight, more so the better ground (again GS wouldn’t inconvenience but if there’s an unforeseen deluge it won’t be ideal as he’s best on good) and he gets Tom Bellamy riding him for the first time, which I actually think is now a significant jockey upgrade on many, and certainly Tom Cannon who’s had a so so season – well, most of the times i’ve watched him closely in a race he’s struggled to settle a horse, esp youngster, for all he’s clearly a talented rider. Maybe that effort on Mellow Ben has soured me! Bellamy’s had his best season ever I think, that I can remember, certainly in terms of quality etc, and he’s riding with confidence – 4/19, 7p last 14 days.

There is more to come from this horse one day and they’ll be a reason Trevor Hemmings has kept him. Most of his races have fired out numerous subsequent winners, his Doncaster novice on Good on 27th Nov, and more recently his penultimate start and LTO- that was an ok 4th at Newbury, hitting the front 2 out, there for a time before plugging on. The winner was rated 120 going into that and the 2nd since dotted up off 109 (went up to 120) and the horse he was 1 1/2 lengths behind won easily NTO in a C4 handicap off 113, the front five miles clear of the rest.

Looking through this race I just thought that effort read very well – I think it’s a better performance than Butler’s Brief’s win here LTO, and my numbers would back that up. It is a bit of a so so race, plenty have numerous questions to answer and I didn’t think it was that deep. Butler’s should go well, Honest Exchange may do also for all that he’s now 0/8, and does need more from somewhere.

Young Offender may go well. Maybe a repeat of LTO will be enough but i’d have thought he needs more than that, but that’s not impossible. Maybe of the others at the prices he’s the most interesting.

I think Santon’s the one to beat IF he builds on his Newbury efforts. He has the best recent ‘hot form’ on show. (subsequent winners, being in and around well handicapped horses etc). He’s getting better with experience and I expect a better effort in this line up. No excuses in conditions today. Tom has some pace he can track, hopefully taking it up after the last and storming home.

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Elsewhere – I started by looking at the 1.30, a Novice Handicap Chase – but they’re dangerous race types to dabble in too often, especially without an in depth knowledge of what the horses look like/scope for chasing etc. The two of interest…

Hawks Well, who I decided I didn’t want to oppose and he’ll only beat himself here I think. He was so so impressive at Newbury, you won’t see many jump better and he bolted up. An example of what a fence can do to some horses, having only been running ok of marks in the low 100s over hurdles. A fence, step up in trip, better ground, and he smacked in a Racing Post Rating of 125. He will try and make all here, Emma Lavelle is on fire also (6/21,9p last 30 days, 3/9,6p last 14, 68% rivals beaten – including a few on the Flat I think, do keep an eye on her Flat runners – 2/2 with those this season) and the horse may well be best fresh – so the 62 days off may be a positive – for all they may have been waiting for decent ground again also.

Fly To Mars is also interesting, I hope not for today but moving forwards. He was put in at 14s last night, soon 11s, opened up 6s or so this morning. Were he 8s-10s I may have been tempted, possibly EW, but he clearly has a few questions. However, his novice hurdle form in 2019 is so good – certainly in the context of a handicapper now racing off 115. Take a look at those two Exeter races, and in the latter he may well have beaten Dostal Phil but for falling. His last six races have produced 47 subsequent winners between them, and a fair few of those have turned into decent chasers. He returned this season after 600+ days off, with the Tizzard yard now only coming out of the mire. He didn’t run badly at Exeter, jumping well, possibly outpaced. There’s a chance he wants better ground also but there’s every indication that this trip is what he wants, and maybe even further/a more galloping track. Plenty of stamina in his blood. However, he’s still a maiden, is inexperienced over fences, is returning after 116 days off and certainly at 6s just a bit too much guesswork – and a Fav with no holes in him at all from what we know. Maybe he’ll make 6s look good and be scrapping it out with the fav, or chasing him home.

Still, no doubt that those two are the ones to take away from this moving forwards – they have a fair few more chases between them this summer and at a higher level than today.

Frisco Bay makes his chasing debut for Jonjo, a LTO winner (beating Young Offender at Uttoxeter, so if he goes well in this that could be a boost for him later on the card as above) How he takes to chasing we shall see – the two above have more class for me, will go onto better things, but he should win chases and maybe fences will transform him also. Only 6 as well.

So, an interesting little race, more so for the future, a few of these will pop up again in the weeks ahead.

I didn’t really like any of the summer stats picks with my subjective eyes but maybe i’ve got the odd one wrong. A fair few had big big questions to my eyes/looked moderate. Rooster Cogburn looks the most likely winner and will try to make all again, but that price was short enough for me. Hopefully I don’t regret opposing Singapore Saga. Shareef Star may go well, I was just guessing as to how he’d take to fences. No idea, no point experience to call on etc. Maybe he’ll be transformed. Market support may be significant.

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To Chester…

Well a few of the stats picks have been well backed… on a very very quick glance, I did think the Evans pair looked interesting at a meeting he clearly targets – Lihou, and Snow Ocean (although 11s into 6s now) Spirit Dancer may go well in that and Alpine Stroll is being nibbled at also, so we shall see. Hopefully a winner or two there somewhere.

Best of luck with any bets as always,

Anything you fancy at Worcester, Chester or anywhere else? Remember we only praise winners down below and ignore the losers! 🙂

Josh

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

22 Responses

  1. 16.15 Chester.
    selection : Mercurial 1pt. win only.

    Not a particularly good race but will take a chance on Mercurial at the current prices… I think the draw will play a significant part with those that are drawn 1,2 and 3 having the edge with those that have had a run being good enough to beat those that are unraced….Mercurial just has the edge over the time that Zoltan clocked after allowing for adjustments for going , distance and course differences…….60.12 for Zoltan against 59.14 for Mercurial….the latter has more stamina in the pedigree which will help if the ground remains good to soft or even if there is more rain….Russellinthebushes, clocked 63.42 with Mercurial and the latter 61.24 against Graftonat’s 63.195….overall Mercurial has run the fastest, just shading Zoltan Star,.so think it will be between these two as the others have ti improve to be in the mix…….Of the unraced horses I like Sir Min, very well bred and both sire and dam have soft ground form and has the best AEI …drawn 5 is not too disadvantageous, though not ideal but would not have to be a super star to get into the mix, but will stick with Mercurial…..all the best if playing.

      1. Thanks Josh, BFSP returned 8.40 (7.40 for recording purposes) which was because the fav shortened pushing the price out so really good…brings us up to plus 33.95 pts$ races to look at for Saturday, so hopefully will be something to have a go at …pleased the figures I do worked out and that bit of stamina mentioned certainly got us the win…..

      1. Hi Nigel….you are welcome……. just working on the 4 races tomorrow so hopefully will have them posted by tomorrow….with the non runners only 35 to look at !!!

  2. With a good chance of more rain at Chester i’m going to have an ew punt on Euchen Glen 25-1 in the 3-15 and hope all 8 stay in.
    In the 3-45 Snow Ocean 11-1 5p ticks enough boxes to have a go.
    I’ll add a couple more later probably

    1. Worcester.
      1-30. Haul Away 14-1, not shown much in 3 trips over fences but has at least got round with steady jumping displays drops into a C4 and would have every chance if producing anything like hurdling form.
      3-35. Templehills 25-1 looks tempting .
      those 4 for my L15
      1-00. I am tempted to have a highly speculative punt on Robin Des Mana 22-1 4p with trainer/jockey Mr York claiming 5 putting him on a very handy mark.

      1. didn’t think anyone took any notice of my ramblings but Snow Ocean and Haul Away have been well backed must be because i tipped them.

        1. I do always have a read Martin! Hopefully for the Chester micros you’re spot on about Snow Ocean.
          You’ve been firing in a few nice winners recently, keep it up!
          Josh

          1. And there you go, spot on Haul Away there, a proper purple patch. Not sure if Tizzard’s was closing or not when going wrong, hopefully he’s not too badly injured. No idea what happened to fav – very moody display, maybe his chase transformation was limited to just his first effort, that was back to his hurdles worst.

  3. Lihou Chester 13:45 1pt e/w
    Bravado Chester 14:45 1pt e/w
    The First King Chester 15:45 0.75pt e/w (make sure you get BOG)
    The Distant Lady Worcester 15:35 1pt e/w
    Buttsbury Lady Huntingdon 14:55 1pt win

  4. No joy yesterday with the Gosden/Dettori patent as the first two ran poorly and the third one went wrong!

    I only like Trueshan today, 3.15 Chester . A top class performer, has won in this class and at this distance . 2/1 now, 3 points win .

    Good luck Martin

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