Free Members Daily Post: 05/05/21 (complete)

All tips x3 + write ups, Stats quals, Chester post, Day 1 Video ‘Preview’

1.Tips

2. Summer Jumps Angles (report TBC)

3. Flat Turf Angles (report TBC)

4.Other/Updates (Punting Pointers HERE>>> )

(Members’ User Guide/Info : READ HERE>>>) (to be updated)

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1.Tips

x3 from me today, as of 9am, write ups in the usual place…

#1 – 1.55 Kelso – Baron De Midleton – 1 point win2nd, 5/1> 16/5, -1, no excuses, good ride, every chance, beaten by the better/right horse on day who sadly for me kept going, not one to follow off a cliff I feel

#2 – 3.05 NA – Sir Ivan – 1 point win – 6/1 (gen) Non-runner

#3 – 3.05 NA – Soupy Soups – 1 point win – 16/1 (bet365) 14/1 (Betf, Boyle, Lad, Coral) PU 7/1, -1, well backed even after R4s, but never really travelled, clearly just out of form sadly, in what was a very winnable race as it transpired. Typically now signs the Tizzards may have turned the corner.

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2. Summer Jumps Angles

(all qualifiers = 1/11, 4p, -7.5) (star rating ‘ ♦ ‘ = 0/3, 1p, -3)

3.05 NA – Hill Sixteen 9/1 3rd, -1

4.07 NA – As High Say 5/2 WON 5/2 > 7/2, +2.5

4.40 NA – Shes A Novelty H3 7/2 UP -1

5.50 Font – Mercian Knight H3

6.50 Font – Alrightjack 13/2 ♦ 2nd -1

7.50 Font – Vive De Charnie 16/1 UP -1

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3. Flat Turf Angles

(all qualifiers = 1/5, 1p, -4.17) (star rating ‘ ♦ ‘ = 0/0, 0p, 0)

None.

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4.Other/Updates

CHESTER MAY MEETING: Trainer & Jockey Pointers : READ HERE>>>

(includes qualifiers for Day 1)

In the video below I use said qualifiers as a ‘way in’ but try and say something useful about most of the races, whether trainers in form, jockeys, hot-form and a look at the pace maps for most of them – a few horses could get easy leads, will they stay there? With any luck I say something useful for this card but more generally through the week/moving forward…. (using the excellent Geegeez Gold)

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My write ups…

Baron De Midleton – there’s a racehorse/chaser here somewhere and on this drop down into his first C4 handicap chase (albeit a novice handicap, and i’ll probably regret such folly), second run after a wind op, yard going well, Tom Scu on and a falling mark, I just couldn’t help myself at 13/2 or so – I suspect if he loses a leg in the market that will be all I need to know…

However, what lured me in was the fact he’s had a wind op before, back in Dec 19, he did nothing on his next start, beaten 26l, before hacking up NTO on second run back after the op. We can live in hope he does the same again, after what was a lacklustre effort at Stratford, but that track/CD/pace may not have suited and he was going to finish off his race before falling at the last. I don’t know if Brian’s had the choice and jumped onto the Alexander horse, but Ellison is 1/1 when booking Tom Scu this season, that winner a few days back at Chepstow (interesting he’s up here esp when he could have had a shorter drive to Newton Abbot or Fontwell, I suspect for the Brookehouse horse in the bumper, he appears to be the owner’s go to man now, evergreen Tom – he’s also on Oscar Ceremony for Ellison in the 2.55, a LTO tip of Adam’s who did not appreciate the deluge at Carlisle, for all I had a stamina niggle over this trip at the price, but may be worth a second glance and don’t let me put you off – he is very well handicapped) and Scu is now 4/15,5p all rides for Ellison in the last 5 years. I suspect this horse may appreciate a strong ride/being told what to do. We shall see.

The horse… well he’s unexposed, his best chase run coming at Newcastle over 23f in November, on decent ground in a C3 novice handicap off 3lb higher. He stayed on there, beat by The Ferry Master who’s run twice since, including looking like the Scottish National winner 3 from home (before inextricably getting into scrap with his stablemate, Sandy must have been furious, one of them may have won if they’d have waited, and waited again) and he stayed for an honourable 4th. The Irish raider in 3rd has done that form no harm, winning at Punchy on Sat. NTO Baron ran in heavy at Wetherby, a two horse race, but bumping into Remastered, who’d then hack up on his next start at Ascot. No harm in that defeat – I don’t think there are horses of either calibre in this race today. I can ignore his next two starts over 16/17f, before he then had the wind op and returned at Stratford. IF he got back to the level of that Newcastle run (and RPR 129, a mark of 120 today, down 6lb in two runs) I think he’d outclass this mediocre bunch. He is 0/6 chasing now but did win a point. Of course he may just have issues (and I do like a caveat, have you noticed?!) and not do much at all, but at 13/2 in this line up, i’ll have a dabble and find out.

If he does fall in a hole/finds sod all for pressure, it does then feel open. My LTO tip Do Not Disturb should have won at Perth but he idled his chance away after the last, which he also did three starts back when winning, just clinging on. I do wonder if 3m with this climb to the line is his bag, his best form on flatter tracks. He could win this, and maybe do it well, but at 5/2 i’ll oppose. He’s had his chance at a nice price from me, and blew it. Painful viewing.

Millarville may go well if she’s fully tuned up – Graham can ready them but just a bit too much guesswork and still to convince on the stamina front, for all she’s interesting to a point and has been nibbled but not enough there for me at 5s, but maybe the money is significant. She is the one i’d fear most I think. She chased home The Ferry Master also a few starts back, and maybe that is the formline in this race.

I thought the rest had even more questions, especially in conditions/class, but it is one of those races where I suppose not much would surprise. I thought they wouldn’t live with the selection IF he bounced back to his best form.

Pace wise… Lucinda’s can go forward if his legs are quick enough at this level/cruising speed, to hold a position, Do Not Disturb can be prominent but after LTO they’ll probably want a lead for as long as possible – I wonder if Tom may make Baron’s mind up here, launch him forward and get him enjoying himself. That’s what i’d try if he were mine. The other three are usually more patiently ridden.

3.05 Newton Abbot…

My shortlist for this was Soldier of Love, Sir Ivan and Soupy Soups.

I’ll start with the fav – I don’t know what to make of him at 11/4 – clearly he’s unexposed, in a race lacking such types, he has decent course form before his last two starts and posted RPRs to suggest he’s got a fair bit in hand from this mark, and the form reads well. Maybe i’m just putting too much focus on his Scottish National effort, but it was weak – he dropped through the field like a stone through water midway down the back, long before stamina should have been an issue, and I thought the ground was ok but maybe he didn’t like it. That’s two PUs now for all that it was too soft the first time. The fact he returns 17 days later here would suggest there was nothing physically wrong. Maybe he just likes bullying a small field, but I can hope that Rocky’s and Christmas may help beat him up on the front end. I thought 11/4 was short – one of those where you leave the race or have a go at something else, and well, I’ve had a go…

Sir Ivan – having beaten the ‘focus on unexposed horses’ drum (and in general that is the place to focus the majority of the time) i’ve picked an 11yo and a 10yo. 6s has lured me in here as I think that’s more than fair – i’m pretty certain he’s going to run his race here which can’t be said for any of the others really. Since they fitted the cheekpieces in Jan 20, he’s been transformed really and he hasn’t run a bad race this season. His Aintree C2 hurdle effort on seasonal return over 20f was very good considering his age and the fact he’s a 3m chaser. But he’s clearly still got a bit of boot. Leicester was ok, outpaced over 20f (Thienval behind him there, winner up at Ayr, since retired in one piece) before a cracking effort in a relatively deep Vets finale at Sandown. The ground probably went a bit too soft for him but he stayed on. The two horses behind him have both won since, so some substance. His Newbury effort was good also and he was worth so much more than that winning margin, having idled badly on the run for the line. Hopefully if he does hit the front here off the bend, the last jump will keep him switched on, before a short run in. The CP appear to have helped him travel better and hold a position and i’d expect Lorcan to try and get him tracking the pace, if his legs will allow it. Despite his age this is only his 13th handicap chase. He appears best after a break these days so the 60 days is a positive, Harry Fry does well at the course and is ticking along fine.

Soupy Soups – more speculative and it’s been painful watching his price disappear but hopefully you can get 14s (still 16s bet365, 14s lad/coral as I type at 09.10, should appear again elsewhere with any luck, or maybe not!) which I thought was worth a go, back to a more realistic level on ground that he relishes. Four starts back at Perth in August he was winning an ok C2 off the same mark, and if hadn’t idled there he’d have won by about 8 lengths. He’s got a few decent efforts to his name, especially in the late summer/autumn of 2019, culminating in a fine second in The Badger Ales. That was a ‘so so’ renewal and really he should have won. That is pocket talk (he owes me/us) of course and longer term readers may remember it well, I do. 20/5s or so, into 10s, given far too much to do, took 3/4 fences home with him and was still only beaten 1/4 length, needing 50 more yards. That was off 2lb higher than today. So, clearly he does have the ability to feature in this race today. He ran ok to a point after 62 days at Kempton, for all that it was a deep G3 where they did not hang around and he was taken off his feet. Still, some headway before 3 out, and then weakening. Sent off 100/1 though as he was at Cheltenham in The Ultima. That’s twice he’s pulled up in that race now, ground too soft, far too competitive/classy (this is no Ultima today!), the track far from ideal, but he would have finished off his race LTO but for walking through two out. The yard are going well, Robbie Dunne is riding with confidence and clearly knows the horse well, he will bounce of the ground, they may have set him up for this and he should have a decent pace with which he can settle off and creep through. He is a more speculative one but at 14s I’ll pay to find out – IF he bounced back to any of his best chase runs, he won’t be far away here, and there’s every reason in these conditions to think he may do.

Of the rest… I’ve mentioned Soldier who is the worthy fav and I may just be playing for places, but I want to oppose after LTO and i’ll live with it. He could just be a small field bully.

If Highest Sun wins at 9/2, so be it. 1/11 chasing, he never looks the most convincing and it’s The Tizzards – after Saturday I really should learn my lesson and leave them well alone. Something is very wrong there health wise and until more sustained success I can’t be wading into horses around this price, if at all. IF this horse ran to his best, which going LH and over this trip he may do, he would go well. But not for me today.

I was happy to leave the rest. Well, Fagan may run well if it doesn’t happen all a bit too quickly for him around here, which was my fear. He ran ok to a point at Aintree in a deeper race than this obviously. And he bolted up before that, but on heavy, in a race that hasn’t worked out well as yet. If he’s able to hold a position he could be thereabouts but he’d have been hoping for more rain maybe, if only to slow it all down, but he handles good. A potential danger.

I thought Hill Sixteen, Beau Du Brizais, Doitforthevillage, Rockys and Christmas In April (apt really, it was hailing here yesterday) all had too many questions and I’ll happily oppose.

So, an interesting little race which is open anyway I think, to some degree, but even more so if Soldier runs like he did at Ayr. Here’s hoping.

Pace wise… Christmas can go forward, Soldier will be up there, Rockys likes to go forward and in 1st blinkers surely will, I hope so anyway, esp to try and duff up the favourite. Hopefully Sir Ivan slots in behind them and can hold a position, Soupy a bit further back as is his want – maybe not ideal for around here but then a few of those in front will come back to him, but again why I wanted a bigger price. He can race more prominently though, maybe if the money is down and its game day Robbie will have him further forward. We shall see.

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Alrightjack – a ‘star rating’ pick from the stats and hopefully he runs better than the first two – remember nowhere near as much work goes into these as it does with my ‘tipping’ races above, and as such I bet accordingly – still backed with my money, just nowhere near as much as with my tips. But I think there is room in the ‘horse only/think less’ stats ‘way in’ approach, and last winter season gave me hope, +11 points or so, 10% ROI. Nothing to shout home about but something to work on. Anyway, I thought 13/2 was fair here for his in-form trainer, first start after a wind op, back over hurdles, down into a C4, a falling mark. Back in October 19 he ran a fine 4th in The Silver Trophy at Chepstow, a deep race that year, off 127 – it’s that piece of form i’ve latched onto – if he runs up to that level today, this lot will not see which way he’s gone. He clearly finds winning hard though, maybe is nowhere near the same horse, and hasn’t matched that level since, although with some excuses, and jumping hasn’t gone too well, although an ok effort at Lingfield three starts back. I think he’s another former tip of Adam’s. They remove headgear today and maybe he’ll sulk/is a lazy sod, but the op and the trainer form may indicate a better performance is incoming. It didn’t look a great race and is all about whether he runs to his best I think.

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Gl with any bets, including at Chester. Hopefully the video above was useful in that endeavour and fingers crossed a stats horse or two can get their nose in front. Josh

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

12 Responses

  1. 13.45 Chester…no selection as the non runners have compressed the prices too much so no value for me now…I think this is between Ivawood, Devious Angel and Armor as very closely matched on previous runs….Armor clocked 57.51 has a good progeny AEI and his sire won a G1 at Ascot over 6f on gd/soft so going not a problem. Devious Angel, clocked 59.45 secs on first run then 61.79 secs on second run over the 5f, being eased in the latter race on the AW at Southwell, and will act on the going even if more rain falls…Navello is interesting….raced 3 times and improved every time by 2 secs from first to third run so has shown progression, a 17th Feb colt has won twice clocking a final run time of 60.74 seconds…..will have to improve again to match Armor’s time but may do so and has had the experience of running on three different tracks, Bath, Wolves, and Brighton….so a tricky contest now there only 5 runners so no bet for me….

    1. unfortunately another non runner in the form of Armor so bit of a farcical , meaningless race….Beauzon in with a shout now but with the worst of the draw along with the outsider Mojomaker anything could pop in if the race becomes tactical rather than a point and shot contest….even more reason to avoid as a betting medium…….

  2. Two losers on Tuesday. I do not like much on Wednesday but thought that I would have a go at the Gosden and Dettori trixie.

    Chester:
    2.15, Darlectable You 9/2;
    3.15, Law Of the Sea 9/2;
    4.15, Missile 16/1.

    1 point win trixie.

    Good luck Martin

  3. 17.10 Kempton….another 2 yo race that only has 7 runners so no e/w value and in truth, hard to see the short priced fav, Thunder Love getting beaten….very smart on debut here in a C5 so has to step up in class but quite capable of doing so, having clocked 59.3 secs at this distance and was described as doing this comfortably, as was eased towards the finish……so what are the likely contenders to give the fav a race?……

    The fav has already beaten Stunt and cannot see that one turning around the form……clocking 59.88 behind the fav and then running in a C5 at Windsor of 5f in an adjusted time of 60.07 secs so very similar speed that does not match the fav’s time. Two newcomers at bigger prices would be Double Denim with Hollie Doyle teaming up with the Hannon yard and Modern Artist…..there are downsides to both…in Double Denim’s case the dam lets the pedigree down being 0/4, and in the case of Modern Artist, foaled 23rd April, apprentice jockey and more stamina than sprint, though Fast Company is a respected sire and the dam is 1/4 on the aw though in a C5 over 12f…..if there were 8 runners would be willing to have a pop at both e/w….Global Mirage, a 12th March filly, has a good pedigree and a profile that should suit sprints on the AW but has an apprentice on board which puts me off as up against some very experienced riders…Timeless Classic 16th April Foal with dam 0/4 so not for me……….finally, A Daaydreambeliever a 22nd March foal has a sprint pedigree with sire winning on debut and the Houghton yard can get 2 yo winners…dam was unraced…has a sprint profile that will suit the AW…..the best of the draw being 1, 2, 6 occupied by Modern Artist , Double Denim, and Thunder Love respectively so will take Double Denim and Adaaydreambeliever to follow Thunder Love home but a no bet race for me….hopefully, in the next few days will be able to put up some worthwhile selections that have better chances of winning so will keep the 26.55 pts for better opportunities….

    1. Anonymous …thought the post had disappeared into the black hole of the http://WWW…must not have put my name in before pressing the enter button so hence a truncated version below…John Greves

  4. 17.10 Kempton….another 2 yo race that has no value with only 7 runners and the fav, Thunder Love is too short to put up as looks the likely winner with the opposition unlikely to beat the filly that clocked a time here of 59.3 secs over the 5f and was described as being eased and winning comfortably which suggest there is more to come…….the filly beat beat Stunt and the latter’s next run at Windsor does not suggest the horse will be good enough to turn the form around, running in a similar time as before, not progressing from the 59.88 secs behind Thunder Love…of the newcomers Adaaydreambeliever and Double Denim look the most likely to give the fav a contest and will have to run above average (60.37secs) to beat the fav……… I cannot put up a selection that is 4/7….so will wait for better value races and keep the plus 26.55 pts for those…all the best with whatever you are punting today………

  5. Up coming 2yo races; 6th May….. 16.15 Chester originally 15 runners declared now down to 7 runners C2.
    7th. May…. 13.55. Ascot originally 16 runners declared now down to 9 in a class 4
    16.35. Cork originally 20 runners now down to 12 worth 14,750 euro
    17.00 Notts. originally 18 runners now down to 7 ………C5
    17.20 Ripon. originally 15 now down to 8…….C5
    There are three on Saturday 8th.
    13.00. Naas 17 runners declared
    14.05 Naas 19 runners declared
    15.05 Ascot 20 runners declared.
    Will wait and see how many turn up for the Saturday races…….unfortunately in 2yo races the numbers from the originally declared runners does leave hunting for value more difficult, even though they look promising to begin with….not sure what the reasons are for all the nons but this is frustrating but hopefully will find enough value bets over the next few days to be able to put up some worthwhile selections…

  6. Nothing i really like today so just a longshot L15
    Imperium Blue @ 22/1 – 15.45 Chester – Paying 4 Places
    Redrosezorro @ 66/1 – 16.45 Chester – Paying 5
    Soupy Soups @ 11/1 – 15.05 Newton Abbot
    Drumlee Sunset @ 22/1 – 14.30 Newton Abbot – Paying 4 Places

    1. I do keep going back to Drumlee Sunset had a pipe opener beaten 39l by Potters Legend over 3m , drop back in trip should suit this very lightly raced 11yo , his career record is 4/13 8 places . I’ve talked myself into £2 ew @ 25-1 4p.

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