Free Members Daily Post: 03/05/21 (complete)

Tip x1 + write ups, star rating, stats quals

1.Tips

2. Summer Jumps Angles (report TBC)

3. Flat Turf Angles (report TBC)

4.Other/Updates (Punting Pointers HERE>>> )

(Members’ User Guide/Info : READ HERE>>>) (to be updated)

*

1.Tips

x1 from me today, as of 9am, write ups at the bottom…

#1 – 3.00 Kemp – Mellow Ben – 1 point win – 7/1 (WH, BV) 13/2 (gen) 2nd, 13/2> 3/1, -1 (i’ll leave you to ponder that ride/tactics)

*

2. Summer Jumps Angles

(all qualifiers = 0/3, 1p, -3) (star rating ‘ ♦ ‘ = 0/1, 0p, -1)

3.00 Kemp – One Forty Seven 14/1 UP -1

3.50 Warw – Pens Man 9/1 ♦ Fell (when beaten) 6/1, -1

*

3. Flat Turf Angles

(all qualifiers = 1/5, 1p, -4.17) (star rating ‘ ♦ ‘ = 0/0, 0p, 0)

None.

*

4.Other/Updates

The week ahead…

There’s potentially some decent summer jumps action this week, meetings galore, for all they may be ruined by the unpredictable weather, much like the flat, we shall see. Rain on top of watered ground. Hmm. There’s Chester’s May meeting on Wed and i’ll pull together some pointers for that, once i’ve boxed off the two reports for the sections above which is today’s main task, before confirming the summer subs rates etc. First up…

My write ups…

Mellow Ben –

Kempton are not expecting any rain until around 3pm so hopefully their forecasts are correct, as any deluge beforehand would throw this race up in the air a bit and this one doesn’t want soft. But i’ll trust their update/forecast and if it’s wrong, so be it. There’s no doubt this horse is well handicapped, his only handicap chase win coming in Oct 19 off 135 (128 today), an RPR 145. That was on the back of his first chase win in a beginners at Worcester. Both of those wins in fields of 7 or less, and this is actually the first chase he’s run in since that hasn’t had 8 or more runners – there ‘could’ be something in that, maybe downing tools a bit if he doesn’t feel likes he’s being competitive and/or doesn’t like the hustle and bustle of having horses in and around him.

He’s run some eye-catching efforts this season that ultimately I couldn’t ignore, especially as to my eyes this is the weakest chase he’s run in for some time. IF he repeated his Newbury effort on 28th Nov, he’d decimate this lot. He led a decent 16 runner field, C2, until 2 out or so, over 22f. Cap Du Nord swept by him there, thrown in, and he’s run some crackers in defeat after that, including in the season finale at Sandown, beaten 5l or so, running on. Mello Ben was also overtaken by Cenelo there, who’d win The Rowland Meyrick on his next start, front three miles clear at Newbury and he was staying on all the way to the line. There’s nothing in this race today that I think could do what he did there. He then ran over this CD in a much deeper race than this, in softer ground than ideal. Richard Johnson went a bit mad up front there but he had them at it for a time (lost his position but still plugged on for 4th, Adrien Du Pont just behind, since 2/2, Double Shuffle in front – won his next start, Cap Du Nord and Royale Pagaille fighting it out), as he did on his next start in the G3 here in Feb. Some of ‘the figures’ suggest even a repeat of that run, 7th, beaten 18l, would be good enough to beat this lot. He’s now 8lb lower than that effort.

I don’t know what’s happened the last twice, and maybe he’s just gone out of form again. But, they were dropped back in trip and maybe it happened too quickly for him. He was never in it at Kempton, unable to lay up, behind horses/wide, and I wonder if he didn’t like it. At Plumpton he dived right at the first, whacked into a rival, and never looked that happy thereafter. That was a c2 and a decent race for the course, and they didn’t hang around. He looked outpaced in the final 1/2 mile. He now drops back into a mediocre enough C3 and steps back up in trip. Importantly I think he may be able to lead if he wants to and there’s a possibility that if he darts off and gets into a rhythm he could get this lot on the stretch and draw jumping errors out of the top two, who’ve never been the most fluent. That’s the theory anyway and at 13/2 in this line up, I was happy to find out. He would be the most annoy winner in this if left alone, so in I go. (and if i’d asked that question of myself on Saturday, we’d have had a far better day, doh)

Of the rest… Saint De Reve may take this but he didn’t have to compete LTO in a race that fell apart and his jumping is still guessy. There’s something about him I don’t quite like for all that his Newbury effort was good (although nowhere near MBs effort over the same CD, but then he may not run his race etc) and he is the one to beat – in form, unexposed, Nicholls, some of his form reads fine. Psychedelic Rock didn’t beat much LTO and will need more here I think. I was happy to leave but a LTO CD winner and that can count for plenty. I could leave the rest of them, they all just have a few more questions for me in conditions and haven’t shown enough on recent starts. I tipped Versatility LTO at a price but he didn’t run very well, for all that some horses hate Haydock. Maybe he’ll bounce back but like Brother Tedd, Ibis and One Forty Seven, has questions now. Ibis did show a glimmer around here a few starts ago, but I don’t know what happened at Chelt, maybe the ground was too quick. Still, needs more.

I’m on the horse with the best form shown on recent efforts (‘last’ season) who should try to make all. Hopefully he stays there, but at 13/2 i’ll pay to find out, for all it could be he’s just out of sorts but there are reasons to expect a better performance.

*

Pens Man – a ‘star rating’ pick (♦) for the summer jumps profiles, the angle rather simple – all Jonjo’s handicappers (excluding ‘novice handicaps’) here in May-Sept (which in essence is the meetings in May and September where he’s done well).. in previous 8 seasons…

46 bets / 12 wins / 18p / 26% sr / +72 SP / +111 BFSP / BF AE 2.06

So, a ‘way in’, and when looking at the horse/race with my eyes, I thought well worth a go at 9s. He’s unexposed in handicaps and is doing a few things different here esp from LTO – it’s his second run back after a wind op, he’s back up in trip, down in class and gets 1st time CP. Looking at his form he really should be exploiting a mark of 97 soon enough. He’s a previous point winner and plenty of his novice hurdle form reads well – littered with future winners, most of them 120s+ horses and a few now 130s+. He also ran well enough in a couple of them in soft ground (going forward at the line rather than backwards) to make me think he may not mind if the rains come, and Warwick could get a fair bit. At 9s I thought worth risking. His best handicap run came at Fontwell in a C5 off 5lb higher, 2m5f, outpaced, stayed on up the hill into a clear 2nd. His next two starts were mediocre but the subsequent wind op would offer an excuse. Jonjo now runs him at one of his ‘target’ tracks (27/164, 46p, +66 SP all runners here last five years) and Junior jumps on for the first time in three runs. The horse travelled well for a long way at Market Rasen also (first start 169 days) and plugged on to the line. Richie M didn’t give him a hard time. So, plenty in his favour in what’s a weak enough race on paper. He ‘could’ be transformed today (or hate the CP) and be fairly well handicapped if it clicks. An exciting one at 9s.

*

That’s the lot for today, best of luck with any picks as always – and do check the weather forecasts etc- it could be a tricky time on the ‘going’ front.

Josh

*

Share on facebook
Facebook
Share on twitter
Twitter
Share on pinterest
Pinterest
Share on linkedin
LinkedIn
Share on telegram
Telegram

Post Comments

Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

15 Responses

  1. Am I correct in saying there are 4 qualifiers from josh’s Unraced 2yo angle today?
    1.10 Bev Jubilee Rd R Fahey at Bev 5/1
    Ruby Red D O Meara/D Tudhope 7/2

    1.46 Bev Rhino R Fahey/ P Hannigan + R Fahey at Bev 4/1
    Hestor Prynne D O Meara/ D Tudhope 9/2

    Mike

    1. Yep I think that’s right Mike, having just looked. I haven’t been posting quals while the main jumps season was ongoing. I’m not sure they’ve being doing overly well, but still time.

      Report here for those interested/who missed it…

      https://racingtoprofit.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/Flat-Trainer-Pointers-2021.-Unraced-2YOs.pdf

      Fahey’s going along ok , 3/9,6p with his 2YO last 30 days – i did see an interview where he said that due to the rock hard turf/lack of rain, he hadn’t done any grass work with them, and as such a few were a bit behind/would come on plenty for their first racecourse experience etc – some spooking even at the sight/feel of putting down fully on grass etc – and i’m not sure he’s had a 1st time out 2YO winner yet this season.

      OMeara is 2/9,4p with his 2YOs so far this turf season, both winners having had a run and coming on bundles – so something to keep an eye on.

      Always tricky with research like that above, with 1st 2YO – depends how good this seasons crop is for trainer X, and of course whether they’ve been able to train them at home as they want/usually would, which certainly hasn’t been the case for Fahey up until now.

      Having said all that, hopefully a couple of those above can do the job – they all look interesting enough on paper at a quick glance.
      GL., Josh

    2. decent win for Hestor Michael, hope you had a nibble. Fahey’s first time out horses still not firing although the former never got a clear run. Josh

  2. No joy on Sunday – Indie Angel ran on its own for most of the race and then jogged home in fourth. Hard to know if 100% was being put in or that he is not that good? Alcohol Free never got into The Guineas .

    Two for Sunday:
    1.21 Windsor, Stake Acclaim – down in class, tongue toe for the first time, course and distance winner, has won in this class, should get an uncontested lead, draw OK. 4/1 now, 2 points win.
    1.56 Windsor, Hot Scoop – trainer in OK form, course and distance winner, has won in this class, draw OK. 6/1 now, 1 point each way.

    Good luck Martin

  3. 4 for today Β£2ew singles and a L15
    Beverley.
    2-21. Blissful Song 8-1 4p
    2-56. Kodimoor 15-2 4p (bet placed at 7-44 am)
    4-06. Brother McGonagall , been a bit of money for this i got 22-1 early doors now 16’s
    Kempton.
    3-35. Trixster 11-1 4p ( also Mahlers Promise 18-1 Β£1 ew)

  4. 1.15 Kempton 2 Grisbi De Berce (FR) = alan king and his kempton runners again πŸ™‚
    4.06 Beverley 4 Little Jo = looks to be a perfect little one ride of the day for gemma .. good luck to her today 4tbp certainty 4me
    5.15 Beverley 3 Rhoscolyn = looks a good thing to me πŸ™‚

    and just watch mrs harringtons raid on the curragh today ????????? ………… you have been warned πŸ˜‰
    have a great day πŸ™‚
    p.o.d./g.b./b.c. whoever lol πŸ™‚

      1. here i am look the .. the bad penny is back again πŸ™‚ … how goes it in the fast lane mr mc ?? πŸ™‚
        hi to silvery john as well and to anyone else who knows me …… lol πŸ™‚

  5. six 2yo races today. focus on Bath 13.35. and Curragh 13.30 .
    13.35. Bath. selection: Eternal Glory 0.50 pt win only.
    13.30 .Curragh selections. Thunder Eclipse 0.50 pts e/w and Theogony 0.75 pts win only
    write ups to follow

  6. 13.35 Bath….Sienna Bonnie may be difficult to beat clocking a time of 59.428 secs in a C5 at Windsor but thought worth taking on with Eternal Glory form the Johnston yard as they do well with 2 you around here……not a race to get overly excited about and would not be surprised if anything popped in with the outsiders Never in Fourth and Madame Mango having interesting pedigrees, though the dams of both 0/4 and 0/5 respectively…..the dam of Severn Stoke was unraced and the filly was foaled 27th April so may need the run…just a pity there are so few runners from the originally declared……an unfortunate feature of 2 yo races.

    Over at the Curragh in the 13.30 now down to 10 runners so at least an e/w option available in the form of Thunder Eclipse…the colt was foaled 11th March and the sire 4/7 overall and 3/6 stakes wins…won over 6f on debut and 2 G1 wins over 6 and 7f….shouldo handle the going having Pivotal in sires pedigree though was beaten on gs an gd/yld …has the best overall AEI though closely matched with my other selection Theogony a 7th March Colt from the Bolger yard that won the 2,000 gns so bang in form…the sire Teofilo 5/5 overall 4/4 stakes and won on debut won on gf, gs, gd yld over 7f in G1 races….Quick Suzy is respected having clocked 58.77 secs beaten by Elliptic at Tipperary over 5f ……others for consideration are Hot Sunset and Pilbara Gold and the now no runner Lady Tanzanite but itll stick with the selections Thunder Eclipse e/w and Theogony win only and hope for a good run from both……23.47 pts going into both races fingers crossed for some kind of return……

    1. Not too much damage done…left with 22.52 pts….not sure what happened with Eternal Glory…literally never at the races….Sienna Bonnie just too good in 13.35 at Bath but pleased with the run of Thunder Eclipse so recovered some of the losses, so not a total wipe out….only one tomorrow 15.40 Lingfield so will post before that runs…..

      1. Eternal Glory took a false step not long after the start to my eyes John, or something happened anyway which completely knocked rhythm/lost lengths, and not given hard time after that, for all it didn’t matter in the end. Thunder E travelled well for a long way like a horse with some ability, one to keep an eye on maybe

        1. Thanks for that, Josh…both to keep an eye on….was a quality race regarding pedigrees…had to make a choice with the 6 2yo races so just focused on the better quality …I did do the 14.00 Curragh but dropped it when the runners went from 9 to 7…as the value evaporated….real problem when the field compresses with non runners compared with the initial declarations as the value gets sucked out of the race tomorrow in the 15.40 Lingfield there are 10 runners at the moment so fingers crossed we can get some value from the only 2 yo old race …….

  7. A bit of jumps fun at Warwick:

    2.05 Warw- Lies About Milan (e/w).
    2.40 Warw- Nina The Terrier (e/w).
    3.15 Warw- Presentandcounting (e/w).
    3.50 Warw- Felton Bellevue & Shantou Sunset (e/w).
    4.25 Warw- Lugg River (e/w).
    5.00 Warw- Keep Moving (e/w).
    5.30 Warw- Maria Magdalena & Dave And Bernie (e/w).
    6.00 Warw- Trump Lady (e/w).

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.