2. Summer Jumps Angles (report TBC)
3. Flat Turf Angles (report TBC)
4.Other/Updates (Punting Pointers HERE>>> )
(Members’ User Guide/Info : READ HERE>>>) (to be updated)
x1 from me today, as of 9am, write ups at the bottom…
#1 – 3.00 Kemp – Mellow Ben – 1 point win – 7/1 (WH, BV) 13/2 (gen) 2nd, 13/2> 3/1, -1 (i’ll leave you to ponder that ride/tactics)
2. Summer Jumps Angles
(all qualifiers = 0/3, 1p, -3) (star rating ‘ ♦ ‘ = 0/1, 0p, -1)
3.00 Kemp – One Forty Seven 14/1 UP -1
3.50 Warw – Pens Man 9/1 ♦ Fell (when beaten) 6/1, -1
3. Flat Turf Angles
(all qualifiers = 1/5, 1p, -4.17) (star rating ‘ ♦ ‘ = 0/0, 0p, 0)
The week ahead…
There’s potentially some decent summer jumps action this week, meetings galore, for all they may be ruined by the unpredictable weather, much like the flat, we shall see. Rain on top of watered ground. Hmm. There’s Chester’s May meeting on Wed and i’ll pull together some pointers for that, once i’ve boxed off the two reports for the sections above which is today’s main task, before confirming the summer subs rates etc. First up…
My write ups…
Mellow Ben –
Kempton are not expecting any rain until around 3pm so hopefully their forecasts are correct, as any deluge beforehand would throw this race up in the air a bit and this one doesn’t want soft. But i’ll trust their update/forecast and if it’s wrong, so be it. There’s no doubt this horse is well handicapped, his only handicap chase win coming in Oct 19 off 135 (128 today), an RPR 145. That was on the back of his first chase win in a beginners at Worcester. Both of those wins in fields of 7 or less, and this is actually the first chase he’s run in since that hasn’t had 8 or more runners – there ‘could’ be something in that, maybe downing tools a bit if he doesn’t feel likes he’s being competitive and/or doesn’t like the hustle and bustle of having horses in and around him.
He’s run some eye-catching efforts this season that ultimately I couldn’t ignore, especially as to my eyes this is the weakest chase he’s run in for some time. IF he repeated his Newbury effort on 28th Nov, he’d decimate this lot. He led a decent 16 runner field, C2, until 2 out or so, over 22f. Cap Du Nord swept by him there, thrown in, and he’s run some crackers in defeat after that, including in the season finale at Sandown, beaten 5l or so, running on. Mello Ben was also overtaken by Cenelo there, who’d win The Rowland Meyrick on his next start, front three miles clear at Newbury and he was staying on all the way to the line. There’s nothing in this race today that I think could do what he did there. He then ran over this CD in a much deeper race than this, in softer ground than ideal. Richard Johnson went a bit mad up front there but he had them at it for a time (lost his position but still plugged on for 4th, Adrien Du Pont just behind, since 2/2, Double Shuffle in front – won his next start, Cap Du Nord and Royale Pagaille fighting it out), as he did on his next start in the G3 here in Feb. Some of ‘the figures’ suggest even a repeat of that run, 7th, beaten 18l, would be good enough to beat this lot. He’s now 8lb lower than that effort.
I don’t know what’s happened the last twice, and maybe he’s just gone out of form again. But, they were dropped back in trip and maybe it happened too quickly for him. He was never in it at Kempton, unable to lay up, behind horses/wide, and I wonder if he didn’t like it. At Plumpton he dived right at the first, whacked into a rival, and never looked that happy thereafter. That was a c2 and a decent race for the course, and they didn’t hang around. He looked outpaced in the final 1/2 mile. He now drops back into a mediocre enough C3 and steps back up in trip. Importantly I think he may be able to lead if he wants to and there’s a possibility that if he darts off and gets into a rhythm he could get this lot on the stretch and draw jumping errors out of the top two, who’ve never been the most fluent. That’s the theory anyway and at 13/2 in this line up, I was happy to find out. He would be the most annoy winner in this if left alone, so in I go. (and if i’d asked that question of myself on Saturday, we’d have had a far better day, doh)
Of the rest… Saint De Reve may take this but he didn’t have to compete LTO in a race that fell apart and his jumping is still guessy. There’s something about him I don’t quite like for all that his Newbury effort was good (although nowhere near MBs effort over the same CD, but then he may not run his race etc) and he is the one to beat – in form, unexposed, Nicholls, some of his form reads fine. Psychedelic Rock didn’t beat much LTO and will need more here I think. I was happy to leave but a LTO CD winner and that can count for plenty. I could leave the rest of them, they all just have a few more questions for me in conditions and haven’t shown enough on recent starts. I tipped Versatility LTO at a price but he didn’t run very well, for all that some horses hate Haydock. Maybe he’ll bounce back but like Brother Tedd, Ibis and One Forty Seven, has questions now. Ibis did show a glimmer around here a few starts ago, but I don’t know what happened at Chelt, maybe the ground was too quick. Still, needs more.
I’m on the horse with the best form shown on recent efforts (‘last’ season) who should try to make all. Hopefully he stays there, but at 13/2 i’ll pay to find out, for all it could be he’s just out of sorts but there are reasons to expect a better performance.
Pens Man – a ‘star rating’ pick (♦) for the summer jumps profiles, the angle rather simple – all Jonjo’s handicappers (excluding ‘novice handicaps’) here in May-Sept (which in essence is the meetings in May and September where he’s done well).. in previous 8 seasons…
46 bets / 12 wins / 18p / 26% sr / +72 SP / +111 BFSP / BF AE 2.06
So, a ‘way in’, and when looking at the horse/race with my eyes, I thought well worth a go at 9s. He’s unexposed in handicaps and is doing a few things different here esp from LTO – it’s his second run back after a wind op, he’s back up in trip, down in class and gets 1st time CP. Looking at his form he really should be exploiting a mark of 97 soon enough. He’s a previous point winner and plenty of his novice hurdle form reads well – littered with future winners, most of them 120s+ horses and a few now 130s+. He also ran well enough in a couple of them in soft ground (going forward at the line rather than backwards) to make me think he may not mind if the rains come, and Warwick could get a fair bit. At 9s I thought worth risking. His best handicap run came at Fontwell in a C5 off 5lb higher, 2m5f, outpaced, stayed on up the hill into a clear 2nd. His next two starts were mediocre but the subsequent wind op would offer an excuse. Jonjo now runs him at one of his ‘target’ tracks (27/164, 46p, +66 SP all runners here last five years) and Junior jumps on for the first time in three runs. The horse travelled well for a long way at Market Rasen also (first start 169 days) and plugged on to the line. Richie M didn’t give him a hard time. So, plenty in his favour in what’s a weak enough race on paper. He ‘could’ be transformed today (or hate the CP) and be fairly well handicapped if it clicks. An exciting one at 9s.
That’s the lot for today, best of luck with any picks as always – and do check the weather forecasts etc- it could be a tricky time on the ‘going’ front.