Weekend Flat Stats, Trends & Pointers

Newmarket trainer pointers & Thirsk Hunt Cup Trends

Below you can find a few trainer pointers for this weekends Newmarket Guineas meeting (and one sire to note, guess who?!), as well as a few trends & trainer pointers for Thirsk’s Hunt Cup. The flat has plenty of ‘festivals’ through the season and as with previous years I’ll dig out any relevant trainer pointers where they exist, the odd sire of interest, as well as trends & trainer pointers for any of the ‘big’ handicaps, especially the ‘heritage handicaps’. As always the main aim is to use as a ‘way in’ with the hope that it helps you land on a few winners…

Newmarket Guineas Festival

Stats for previous eight meetings. Any ‘qualifiers’ will be posted in the Members Daily Posts

Trainers

Charlie Appleby

  • Jockey: William Buick
  • All races

29 bets / 10 wins / 18p / 34% sr / +18 SP / +31 BFSP / BF AE 1.78

Aidan O’Brien

  • Horse had 2+ career wins

32 bets (19 races) / 10 wins / 17p / 31% sr / +36 SP / +51 BFSP / BF AE 1.49

Clive Cox

  • Horse aged 2-4

12 bets / 3 wins / 4p / 25% sr / +18 SP / +30 BFSP / BFAE 2.52

Richard Hannon Jnr

  • Horse aged 3
  • Horse had 0-1 runs at track  
  • Hannon had 2 or 3 runners in the race

20 bets (10 races) / 5 wins / 10p / 25% sr / +117 SP / +234 BFSP / BF AE 3.07

Mark Johnston

  • 1m2f – 1m4f
  • Horse aged 3 or 4
  • Horse had 0-1 runs at track

23 bets (19 races) / 7 wins / 10p / 30% sr / +16 SP / +20 BFSP / BF AE 2.34

  • All winners sent off 12/1< SP: 7/12, 8p, +31 BFSP, however two big priced placed horses at 25/1 and 33/1

Sir Michael Stoute

  • Horse aged 4 or 5

22 bets / 6 wins / 10p / 27% sr / +26 SP / +36 BFSP / BF AE 1.52

Sire

  • Galileo (all)
  • 2017, 2018, 2019 (last three meetings)

13 bets (8 races) / 5 wins / 7p / 38% sr / +19 SP / +26 BFSP / BF AE 2.01

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Saturday Big Race Trends

2.40 Thirsk: The Hunt Cup

12/186, 41p

12/12 aged 4-6  (7+ : 0/52, 10p)

12/12 sent off 16/1 or shorter SP (18/1+ : 0/74, 7p)

12/12 had 0-1 win with today’s jockey (2+ : 0/36, 5p)

12/12 made their racecourse debut over 6 or 7f (did not: 0/55,8p)

11/12 official rating 86-94

  • 85< : 0/15,3p
  • 95+ : 1/41, 7p

11/12 had yet to win beyond 8f (had : 1/63, 9p)

11/12 had 1 or 2 runs this season

  • 0: 1/47, 6p
  • 3+ ; 0/14,3p

11/12 ran in a race for 4yo+ LTO  (3YO+ : 1/30, 3p)

Trainers (12 years)

  • M Dods: 2/14,5p
  • R Fahey: 2/12,5p
  • X1: TD Barron, Saeed Bin Suroor, K Dalgleish, W Haggas, R Carr, K Ryan, L Eyre
  • T Easterby: 0/16,1p
  • D O’Meara: 0/18,4p

Applying the stats…

Not the strongest of trends races and i’ve used a couple of unusual ones, for all that some logic I think. In any case, the x3 12/12 stats, excluding odds (market has been some guide, 16s or shorter) leave six…

Nugget, Tom Collins, Hartswood, On A Session, Byrons Choice, Global Spirit

Only two are in the ratings sweet spot (historically at least) 86-94… On A Session, Byrons Choice

Of the original list with 1 or 2 runs this season… Nuggest and Global Spirit

Trainers (to have won race with runners)

  • Tom Collins
  • Hartswood
  • On A Session
  • Queens Sargent
  • Byrons Choice

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