The Lincoln: Stats, Trends & Trainer Pointers (complete)

Part 1 & 2, stats, trends, trainer pointers, + trends ‘applied’

The first big flat handicap of the season. Below you can find three trainers to keep an eye on over the two days. For two of them the market has been some sort of guide in recent years. My unique stats & trends profile for the big race then follow, inc trainer pointers. I’ve also included The Spring Mile pointers. Part 2 follows, where I ‘apply’ my trends pointers, and detail those horses who are representing trainer’s who’ve previously won said race…

PART 1

Three Trainers to Note (over the two day meeting)

Stats for the previous five Festivals

Richard Fahey

All runners: 78 bets / 9 wins / 20p / 12% sr / +14 BFSP

  • Sent of 9/1 or shorter SP: 30 bets / 8 wins / 13p / 27% sr / +44 BFSP / AE 1.71
    • Class 3/4/5: 8/24, 12p, +50 BFSP

Richard Hannon

All runners: 28 bets / 5 wins / 10p / 18% sr / +9 BFSP

  • Sent off 12/1 or shorter SP: 18 bets / 5 wins / 10p / 28% sr / +19 BFSP / AE 1.4

Roger Varian

All runners: 10 bets / 5 wins / 7p / 50% sr / +2 BFSP / AE 1.35

*

The Lincoln (Saturday, 3.10)

12/249 runners, 48 places

12/12 aged 4-6 (7+ : 0/56, 11p)

12/12 hadn’t run in previous 90 days (in UK/Ire, ignoring Dubai for example) (1+ : 0/84, 12p)

12/12 carried 9-4 or less (exc claims) (9-5+ : 0/62, 12p)

12/12 ran in a handicap LTO (non-handicap: 0/64, 12p)

12/12 ran in a race restricted to 3YO+ LTO  (3YO: 0/12,0p; 4YO+ : 0/88, 11p)

12/12 ran 121-240 days ago (12/134, 34p)

11/12 had 0-1 runs in month of March previously in career (2+ : 1/95, 9p)

11/12 had won at least once in last 365 days (had not: 1/69, 11p)  

11/12 had 0-3 handicap wins (4+ : 1/89, 15p)

10/12 had 0-1 runs at track (2+ : 2/105, 16p)

10/12 Official Rating 6-11lb lower than highest rated in race (10/106, 24p)

10/12 had won at least once last 4 starts (10/132, 26p)

10/12 ran on turf LTO (AW: 2/98, 16p)

8/12 had won at least once last three starts (8/96, 20p)

8/12 had 2-4 runs over the distance (8/64, 15p) (inc last four)

8/12 had 0-3 places (inc wins) in handicaps (8/79, 17p) (inc last five)

8/12 top 3 LTO (8/87. 18p… WON LTO 6/39, 13p)

Other

  • Favs/Joint Favs: 3/13 runners, 6p
  • Carried 5lb penalty: 0/15,2p
  • Horse had 6+ wins on turf: 0/44, 6p
  • 5 & 7lb claimers: 0/29, 2p
  • Offspring of Pivotal: 2/13, 5p
  • Ran in a listed race LTO: 0/34, 6p
  • Ran in a C1 LTO: 0/48, 10p
  • Track LTO :-
    • Wolverhampton: 0/49, 7p, Lingfield: 0/27, 4p, Donc: 0/21, 2p

Trainers (prev 12 renewals)

  • Charlie Appleby: 2/2, 2p
  • R Fahey: 2/35, 8p
  • W Haggas: 2/5,3p
  • X1: M Tompkins, D O’Meara, J Ryan, JJ Quinn, M Dods, J Gosden

*

The Spring Mile Handicap (Saturday 2.35)

12/244, 48p

12/12 no more than 11 runs in last 365 days (12+ : 0/51,3p)

12-12 had 0-2 wins over the distance (3+ : 0/41, 4p)

12/12 won by non-claiming jockeys (claimer: 0/47, 6p)

11/12 had 0-2 handicap wins (3+ : 1/117, 14p)

11/12 had 0-5 places (inc wins) in handicaps (6+: 1/114, 13p)

11/12 had 0-1 place (inc wins) in the class (2+ : 1/83, 15p)

11/12 did not run in a race restricted to 4YO+ LTO (did: 1/85, 10p)

10/12 aged 4 (5+ : 2/149, 26p)

10/12 had 3-14 career runs (10/95, 28p)

10/12 had 1-5 runs over the distance (10/108, 25p)

10/12 had 0 wins in the class (1+ : 2/82, 11p)

10/12 had yet to win beyond 8f (had won over further: 2/90, 13p)

9/12 Top 7 in the weights (8th or lower: 3/139, 23p) (does inc 2 of last 4)

6/12 ran right-handed LTO (6/29 runners, 9p, +351 BFSP)

Trainers (prev 12 renewals)

  • B Meehan: 2/5,3p
  • R Fahey: 2/22, 7p
  • X1: I Mohammed, A King, M Dods, Sir Michael Stoute, P Chapple-Hyam, R Varian, R Teal, S Kirk

*

PART 2

Applying the stats & trends…

The Spring Mile Handicap (2.35)

The first six 12/12 and 11/12 stats leave 11/12, 11/78 runners, 23 places and a shorter list of six, if upholding…

Dubai Soug, Acquitted, Mascat, Poets Lady, Global Esteem, Aweedram

Applying all of the 12/12, 11/12 and 10/12 stats leaves 6/12, 6/26 runners, 11p, and… Mascat, Acquitted, Poets Lady

Trainers (to have won race prev 12 renewals, with runners)

  • Anaysmont

*

The Lincoln (3.10)

the x6 12/12 stats would point to 12/12, 12/71 runners, 21 places, and if upholding, a shortlist of six…

Brentford Hope, King Ottokar, Danyah, Ascension, Hotzadar, Revich

Applying to that list the 11/12 stats would leave 9/12 (9/31 runners, 15 places) and a shorter list of three… Brentford Hope, Danyah, Ascension

Trainers (to have won race prev 12 renewals, with runners)

  • Eastern World
  • Brunch
  • Johan
  • Orbaan, Hortzadar

*

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