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A couple of tips today, one each, x3 points in total, as of 9am, my write up at the bottom…
#1 – 1.45 Plumpton – Wheesht – 2 points win – 5/1 (bet365, 888) 9/2 (gen) WON 9/2 > 3/1, +9
Alastair Ralph’s mare was a big disappointment when we last saw her in December but that run was too bad to be true and the reasons for supporting her then remain valid. A horse with size and scope who won her only Irish Point, she showed fair promise last season despite looking immature physically and mentally, struggling to handle mid-winter ground. And she was back in similar form on her first start for new connections, shaping nicely prior to a bad blunder at the last, and back from a break on better ground she should play a leading role in what isn’t a strong race.
Big Race (me)
#2 – 4.10 Kelso – Guitar Pete – 1 point win – 17/2 (SkyB, WH, BV) UP 12/1 -1 (hmm, one to be avoided for now, he will pop up somewhere)
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(All ‘any odds’ ; 34/217, 113p, -75.87) ( ♦ ♦/♦ ♦ ♦ = 13/84,46p, -5.36)
3.03 South – Une De La Seniere H1 9/2 ♦ UP -1
3.03 South – Pounding Poet 8/1 ♦ ♦ WON 9/1
4.10 Kelso – Dimple 11/1 ♦ UP
4.10 Kelso – Court Master H2 11/4 ♦ WON 11/4 > 10/3
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Guitar Pete – a riskier one today but I still can’t remove from my race re-call mind just how well he was going at Kempton two starts back in a much deeper race than this – he was about to jump into 3rd there when coming down 4 out – who knows what he’d have then done, but he was travelling with enthusiasm. I’m not sure what happened at Doncaster, maybe the ground was too loose for him, or his confidence was a bit dented after Kempton (it was a cruncher) – having watched it back, he did also stumble badly after one fence, and was never really going a yard after that. Now aged 11, maybe he just thought sod this, nope, not today thanks. He could well do the same again here, but in the context of this race, that was built into his odds. The majestic Brian Hughes gets the leg up today (0/2,2p on him over fences) which is no bad thing – i wonder if Ryan has lost a bit of confidence, after flooring the old boy – and he also messed up on one of Adam’s tips at Haydock, who was going to win by half the track (you could just tell) when not helping his mount at all, they both guessed together, game over. Hughes is a substantial jockey upgrade on most, if not all, this side of the Irish Sea, imo.
The horse has the best back-class/form of anything in here (esp those Chelt efforts, chasing home Frodon/Cepage in a Caspian Caviar, winning one, albeit lucky, but still, solid form) and while he clearly isn’t as good anymore, his Wetherby return and that Kempton run demonstrated he’s still got something to offer. And Nicky may well be the best trainer of Vets in the country. He’s down to his last winning mark and I think 2m6f may be ideal for him now. We shall see.
Of the rest… well they’re all, bar Dimple, above their last winning marks, so have something to prove from a handicapping perspective. Of course, a few of them may still be open to improvement but I thought they all had the odd question in the context of their price. I struggle to warm to Micky Hammond or Tim Vaughan horses, maybe as I rarely get the sods right. Schiehallion Munro was tipped LTO and I still don’t know what that effort was, dropping himself out, then running on. 80 days off, yard in so so form. He has ability but has stamina to prove also, as does Le Milos, for all he may elicit further improvement – but livelier ground is a question, especially chasing. Court Master was tipped three starts back where he’d have won if jumping the last as well as Fidux, but he is on a career high now, for all this is only his 8th chase. A repeat of his Newbury run two starts back may be good enough I suppose, but he is open to attack from something better treated. The CP return, and he’s had 114 days off, first run here, again stamina to prove on what is a stiff finish – I thought enough questions for a 11/4 shot. But he is good fresh. The others have a few more questions.
Of those at the top i’d rather have Court Master onside, for sure, maybe he will make 11/4, 5/2 look decent.
Pace/race set up – Hammond’s will go forward I think, as will Court Master, maybe they’ll take each other on, that would be handy. Pete is usually ridden patiently but I hope in this line up /pace he may be able to sit closer, for all in this field size/climb, there shouldn’t be an excuse. But he should find it easier to sit handy if he so wants to. It may be clear with one circuit to go that he’s not on a going day again, you have been warned! 🙂
GL with any bets as always,