Below you can find a results update for December 2020 and the season to date…
First up, the spreadsheet, with various tabs at the bottom, including the tips.. (you can also open it HERE>>>)
Summary
The Tips
Adam’s Daily Tips
Total (1st Nov > 3rd Jan):
97 tips / 13 wins / 41 places (inc wins) / 13% wsr / 42% w|p sr / -1.95 points (advised) / -17.74 (BFSP)
My Big Race Tips
Total (10th Oct – 3rd Jan)
99 tips / 13 wins / 38 places (inc wins) / 13% wsr / 38% w|p sr / +29.3 points (advised) +32.11 (BFSP)
Thoughts…
December has been a tough month for the Daily Tips and Adam is on a bit of a downturn at the moment that with any luck we will see the back of as we move through January. You can see from the spreadsheet above that after hitting a high of +47 points they’re back down to -2, having been -10 at their lowest. Such runs, while unpleasant, are normal. They’re painful and I wish we’d have had a bigger pile to play with when it came along. Everything is timing also, and depending on when/if you started following, it could be even more unpleasant. Obviously -2 for those who started in early November isn’t too bad, but as per above that doesn’t tell the full story. I don’t get unruffled by such runs as i’ve been in the game long enough to know they’re unavoidable. A month to month reflection on results can be a bit pointless. When we get to the end of Jan, and 3 months in, i’d hope the picture is a better reflection of the direction of travel.
Bad luck, late URs, falls and 2nds are part of the game, so there’s no point in dwelling on those for too long. Between us we’ve had plenty and could do with a shade more luck, but that sort of thing evens out over time. The place % SRs give me confidence the daily tips will pick up again.
My Big Race Tips are ticking along ok for all that there’s a chunk of the 25 placed horses (inc 14 2nds) that do hurt, as well as a couple of painful late URs/falls. That pile could easily be +55 but that’s the game. In general I’m happy with how I’m reading races, esp since Nov 1st (+39 points), for all I can always do better. There’s been the odd clanger/late change of mind which has been costly and I need to get more of those calls right as we head through 2021.
I’d like the tipping portfolio (Daily +Big Race) to pull in +80-100 points over the season (Nov-April), as a minimum. 4 months left and with any luck Adam can get back to the heights of the first few weeks of November.
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As for everything else… well it’s been a bit drab also. The daily stats content has been a bit so so this season. Well, the ‘monthly trainers’ have been rubbish and haven’t repeated last year’s success. Maybe that was lockdown linked, or some have run their course. They’ll take a back seat for the time being. I’m not even sure they’ve been a useful ‘way in’. The Jumps Profiles are an ok ‘way in’ but as a portfolio are not working systematically as yet. My experimental two or three ‘star ratings’ didn’t have a great December, possibly due to my focus being on tipping races in what is always a busy month, but that’s no real excuse. They’re on about -9 at the moment and work to do there.
Fingers crossed I can keep the big race tips ticking along, that Adam can rediscover some form (and some luck) and some of the stats content, and my ‘star ratings’ has a better time of it. A few positives from the month, but plenty to work on. As always they’ll be plenty of other interesting content to flick through.
As always, any questions, thoughts or observations are always welcome,
Josh
