Below you can find a results update for November /the season to date. There’s the spreadsheet, which you can make full screen or download etc, and then some brief thoughts from myself.
The Spreadsheet
(three main tabs at the bottom / use the scroll bar to the right / full screen icon bottom right/ download button below)
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The Tips
Daily Tips (Adam N)
Nov 1st – 30th
A superb month from my new daily tipster and to be honest I’d bite your hand off for these results to be repeated every month, for all that may be asking too much…
52 bets / 10 wins / 22 places (inc wins) / +30 (advised) / +22.85 BFSP / 19% w sr/ 42% w|p sr / 88 points stakes / 34% ROI
Adam will have his own thoughts on those results no doubt but they’re very solid from my perspective and if the win / win|place strike rates keep at those levels the profit pile will only head one way in time.
Looking at monthly can be misleading and betting on horses isn’t a game for short-termism. I prefer to take a much longer term viewpoint but we couldn’t have asked for much more really – although as always, in an ideal world it’s a gentle, steady climb with profit evenly spread through a month – sadly it rarely works out that way.
I don’t recall too much ‘bad luck’. All the winners won on merit. Ask Henry (15/2 > 7/2) was the painful one, given how he was travelling/going to win, stumbling on landing two out when just taking it up. So that could be +42 or so, but that’s jumps racing. With any luck Adam won’t have any of those again this season, especially over hurdles.
Big Race Tips (me)
Nov 1st – Nov 30th
35 bets / 5 wins / 16 places (inc wins) / +10.1 (advised) / +8.43 BFSP / 14% w sr / 46% w|p sr
Oct 10th (Silver Trophy Meeting)- Nov 30th
52 bets / 6 wins / 24 places (inc wins) / +0.5 (advised) / -4.63 (BFSP) / 11.5% w sr/ 46% w|p sr / 62 points staked
A solid November and in truth if you said i’d repeat that every month from Nov-April i’d probably take it. That would be a solid +60 points. I’m happy with the consistency generally, for all that my restless perfectionism always demands more. The win/place SR is very good and again if that is maintained, or certainly 35/40% over time, that profit pile will only head one way. Given the races I play in the win SR will always be lower and is a choppier ride at times, as explained in the Members User Guide and the ‘betting banks’ chat. For all that I’m trying to be more consistent and bet more EW where appropriate.
Looking at the season to date there’s obviously room for improvement. There’s 10 second places in those stats, two that were head bobs (4s & 10s), a few more that were within a length or two, which is 3 mile chases is fine margins, and two Falls/UR… Gumball, and Arrivederci, who were both cruising at the time to my biased eyes. The latter was placing at worst but that will teach me for going 1.5 points EW and being over confident! Gumball – well, I think he was winning. That’s a 16-25 point swing just with those two – and then the season to date is looking very solid indeed. A game of fine margins and such luck is worth reflecting on to give confidence that you’re doing most things right – rather than ripping up any strategy /process /approach you may have. Luck and variance plays a part in this game and you hope over time it evens out. Which it will. Still, I won’t complain and am generally happy with how i’m reading it, as always with the odd error/ missed horse /poor analysis. At times I have probably tried to force a bet when I shouldn’t have, and that’s something for me to work on. But if this game wasn’t challenging it wouldn’t be fun :)And given the races I enjoy targeting you have to get used to that. Still, I need to improve on the season figure to date and will be working hard to do so.
But, anyone who started following in early November will hopefully be happy with the +40 odd points between us, and if you joined late in the month, you’re due some profit soon 🙂
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The Stats
Not too much to shout about on this front as yet, from a ‘systematic’ perspective. Running totals for the jumps profiles can be found in the daily members posts, also info in the spreadsheet above.
The ‘Jumps Profiles’ ‘backing all’ is looking likely to rely on the odd biggie going in, which isn’t always a great position to be in. Yorkhill (33/1 8am non bog, 79/1 BFSP) has made those stats looks respectable, but had he not won then they wouldn’t look great. I don’t back them all blind and they’ve still to prove themselves in that regard, for all that they’re based on 15 trainers and it’s early days, with an average of just 11 runners/qualifiers per trainer. Hopefully they have a big December.
My ‘star ratings’ is an attempt to apply my subjective analysis to the trainer qualifiers, without over thinking too much. But I do consider the price/’value’. The latter part of November was a bit of a down turn but overall not looking too bad since I introduced them. My ♦ ♦ or ♦ ♦ ♦ ‘stars’ …
55 bets / 11 wins / 36 places (inc wins) +6.64
A 10% ROI isn’t too bad, and neither are the 25 placed horses, most 2nd or 3rd. I could do with a few more of those getting their head in front also! My aim is for those to pull in 30-50 points over a season.
The ‘monthly trainers’ haven’t pulled up any trees as yet. They did well last year for fun stakes to BFSP but two of the early season regulars, Nigel Twiston-Davies and Emma Lavelle were never really in consistent form during the period. Twister was due a bad Sept/Oct I suppose, having been consistent for 5/6 years. Tut. They appeared to be 3/4 weeks behind than where they’d usually be. Maybe some pondering for next year. Venetia did well in November as usual and I’ll live in hope that Henry De Bromhead can repeat one of the last three years with his December qualifiers! Here’s hoping.
If nothing else the stats content/quals, much like the big race ‘trends /stats /trainer pointers/ are a useful ‘way in’ to help find your own winners.
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As always, do refer to the User Guide if you haven’t already. All relevant links are at the top of the Members Daily Posts. There’s useful information in there about betting banks and expected losing runs etc.
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As always, if you’ve any questions, fire away or email in . Hopefully on the tipping front we can repeat November, or maybe even better it.
Josh
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