Members Daily Post: 05/11/20 (All tips x2/complete)

Tips x2, Quals, updates inc Super

1.Tips

2.Jumps Profiles 20/21: Report >>>

3.Monthly Trainers

4.Other/Updates (Punting Pointers HERE>>> )

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1.Tips

Daily (Adam N)

Two for today, as of 9am…

#12.30 Newbury – Present Chief – 2pts win – 11/2 (WH) 5/1 (Bet365/BV) 9/2 (others) UP -2

This progressive individual has won his last two races with any amount in hand and is confidently expected to take this rise in class in his stride. A good looking chasing type, he jumps and travels well and with stamina assured he has plenty to recommend him on ground that will hopefully be as good as forecast.

#2 – 4.00 Sedgefield – Miladygrace – 1pt EW – 15/2 (WH/BV) 7/1 (gen) (1/5, 3p, gen) UP -2

Caught the eye at Kelso last time out when unable to go with some speedier types on quick ground in the closing stages. Not knocked about by any means that day, she is unexposed compared to most in this poor contest and any improvement over this longer trip should see her in the mix

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2.Jumps Profiles 20/21

(All ‘any odds’ ; 7/67, 26p, -25.2)

12.40 Sedge – Classic Escape ♦ ♦ 9/2 2nd , sh -1

2.07 MR – Imperial Acolyte ♦ 9/4 UR -1

2.30 Newb – Dolphin Square ♦ ♦ 13/2 2nd

3.05 Newb – Redford Road ♦ 15/2 UP -1

3.15 MR – Project Mars H1 ♦ ♦ 7/2 3rd -1

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3.Monthly Trainers

None.

Note – I will record a short HRB video looking at the Venetia angle and maybe any other’s who do well in Nov you may wish to note down. I’ll probably put that in a ‘free to air’ post and will get that up on Thursday.

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4.Other/Updates

On Thursday they’ll be the usual ‘stats/trends’ post looking ahead to the weekend. The Badger Ales will be the main focus, there’ s a 2m4f hncp chase from Aintree, no idea as yet if a ‘trends’ race, a decent Vets race on Sunday from Sandown. I suspect those three may be my main focus. Before that, there’s various things to flick through below…

1. RTP Members’ User Guide/Info : READ HERE>>>

2. Weekend review video HERE>>>

3. A new comprehensive post from Adam…

4. REALLY SUPER (13.02 Market Rasen)

A change of plans for our star who was heading off on her hols after Kempton, but this race became an option esp when clear the weather/ ground may be kind, and she was her usual self at home post Kempton. Anything could happen in this race- Amy has always thought she was best with 28+ days between runs but she’s fine at home and we’ve nothing to lose here, as she’ll definitely be on her hols after. Obviously the track holds no fears and this will tell us plenty – hopefully she runs her race, if she doesn’t then maybe she does need more time between runs. But she’s an adult now. She has stamina to prove although I don’t think that will be a problem, esp in a small field. She may relish it. Obviously there’s a 147 mare and a 150 Hendo mare, who won the Summer Plate a couple of years ago – Super’s time was 7 seconds quicker I think, but on better ground. If she does run her race we will learn plenty about her ability/ ceiling I think, as this looks like its been a plan for Hendo’s, and if the Richard’s mare is tuned up, she’ll be in there scrapping also. I can dream of Super’s turn of foot being too much for them up the straight, but we shall see. I can’t sit here with great confidence on any front really, she’s clearly got a bit to find with the top two, for all we haven’t seen the best of her over fences yet. She’s fit, well and there to run her best. We will see if she does and how far that gets her. Exciting. I suspect Jack will try to be aggressive if he can/Super is on form and play catch me if you can, a bit like Kempton. Twisters may ruin that idea but she may not be good enough/jump well enough to stay there. He’ll look after her if this is one trip to the well too many.

Her Kempton AW run was interesting – visually I thought she ran flat/wasn’t up for it, but the clock would suggest she was just outpaced/classed maybe, and it certainly wasn’t run to suit. I believe she ran the 3 furlongs to the finish line nearly 2 seconds quicker than when winning at Chelmsford, around 11l. I found that of mild interest and more positive than the run appeared at the time to my eyes.

The first ever horse I had shares in with White Diamond, Blessed To Empress, runs in the 7.45 Chelm – I think the double may be asking for too much, but maybe its written in the stars! (it’s not). She won’t be far away if running her race again though.

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

10 Responses

  1. Two for Thursday:

    3.05 Newbury, Court Master – in good form at present, down one class, trainer in form, has won in this class, course winner, distance winner. 1 point each way .
    12.40 Sedgefield, Skyhill – 3/5 over fences, back from a break, has won in this class, course winner, distance winner. 1 point each way .

    Good luck Martin

    1. GL Martin, it would be typical for me have gone for Court Master one race too soon! I would agree with the assessment, esp EW with 4 places, 8s/9s did look big, and if he runs his race you’d be mildly surprised was he not thereabouts.
      Interested to see how Hendo’s fav goes, and whether he boosts the form of that Uttoxeter Novice handicap chase last time, and whether that develops into an early season hncp chase to follow. GL

  2. Morning,

    I`m going to Newbury today and will keep up to date with my profit/ loss from the start of November, didn`t do bad in October, but, it was mixed flat and jumps, so, best to go from start of November. Currently on -5pts, so, hopefully can get it back on track with these two today.
    BEFORE MIDNIGHT 1pt win 12/1 gen
    I have looked and looked at this ones form and i believe he is best left handed on a flat course, he has in the past flattered to deceive and maybe he is just a plodder, but, his speed ratings suggest otherwise and i think that speed will count for something after the last if he`s up top after that, speedsters seem to always pick up again after the last at Newbury and I`m right in maybe thinking this is the second longest run in after the last on the National course at Aintree? Which, hopefully should help and with Robbie Power on board i think he has a jockey who can really wind a horse up and let hem go, if in the right frame of mind! Value at double figures.

    AZZERTI 1pt win 13/2 gen
    I pondered long and hard between this one and COURT MASTER and whilst i wouldn`t put you off CM, do think he is the biggest plodder out of all of these, he may win by being out the front and plodding round, but, I believe my two may beat him for speed on that long straight at Newbury. A recent run out for AZZERTI will have put him spot on and i think this field could be anything, it is always hard to win a race at Newbury, but, it is a fair course and good horses do prevail.

    As always hope all horses and jockeys come back safe and sound, good luck with whatever you select today.

  3. An update on Lomu. Pleased with the run as he settled well and didn’t over race which was our main concern. He was as good as gold for Rachel his handler for the day and even when the locals were letting off fireworks before the race he wasn’t excitable.

    Sadly he fizzled out in the final furlong but will strip fitter for the run. Happy to try him over 6 again but if we can find the right race a drop back to 5 in a 0-85 may be the way to go to get a good run and a boost. to his confidence. I would assume we may come down a couple of lbs in the handicap. Rather amusingly Dylan Hogan said it was like riding 2 horses because of his size!

    He will have a few days off now and see how he is before making our next plan for him.

    We move on to Praxeology on Saturday who runs in a class 3 apprentice handicap over 7f. A step up in grade for him but he is absolutely flying at home. It was our intention to go to Wolves over 6f next but we thought we would take our last chance of the season on turf as he is so well.

    1. Good stuff Nick,

      Yep I thought that was a decent run – and from the handful of times i’ve seen him, the best he’s settled for sure- so, that’s good news. He did run as if he would strip fitter, but plugged on, didn’t fall out back of tv which is always a positive, even if needing it a tad. You should definitely be having some fun with him – I know he likes wolves, I wonder if a big field, buried away on the Newcastle straight 5f would work also, esp as stiff enough. I believe he’s raced there 3 times already, but excuses for each. Anyway, you’ve got options and fingers crossed for a fun winter with him- he is some unit for sure!

      Josh

      1. Ideally we go to Newcastle for a 5f conditions race in January but there is a lot of water under the bridge before then. I have my eye on a 5f handicap at Lingfield on 21st November. We would have to step him up in grade for Wolves before Xmas but he is capable and it’s only a short hop down the A41 for him.

        We will see how he is in a few days and I will discuss with Dave about our next route.

        So I’ve got Lomu and Praxeology on the go now. Our other horses are Apex King who has had a bit of work on his hocks and is now in full training but nothing too exertive. He does look happy and we have seen an improvement in his general outlook. He was a yard favourite when Dave had him before. When he’s ready he will be campaigned over 7f to 1m, current rating 75 which is a very winnable mark.

        Elhafei is having a break after being bought out of Mick Appleby’s yard. We will give him a month to have a rest and acclimatise to his new surroundings and then take stock of whether we push on then or give him more of a break. He’s a stunning looking horse and after having won over longer distances I reckon he will be just as effective over 1m2f so we have various options. He has an AW mark of 62 which has to be very workable as he had RPR’s in the high 70s over 1m2f last year. I think his last yard got a win out of him over 1m5f and decided to stick with that sort of trip and lost sight of his form over shorter trips off a higher mark. He has a very nice nature and appears to be taking well to his new surroundings.

        2 yearlings for next year too. Fortuna Dufflecoat is a chestnut colt by first season sire National Defense out of a Hernando mare from one of Kirsten Rausing’s stock and a half brother to a black type filly. He’s a big lad for a yearling and has taken well to the bits of work he has done. His breeding would suggest a bit of stamina. Due to his size already he may well turn out to be an early 2yo but it’s too early to say. He will be fattened up for Xmas before going into full training in the New Year. Our other yearling is Willow Pillow, a grey filly by Zoffany out of a Verglas mare and a half sister to an American stakes winner. I’ve not seen her yet in the flesh as she is in a pre-training yard at the moment but she looks great in the pics I have seen. Unfortunately we won’t see her until lockdown is over now. She’s well bred and could be a sound investment if she has a decent 2yo campaign.

        It’s the hope that kills you!

  4. 4 aw races today for the video replay list
    KEMPTON
    20-30 sula island / my boy sepy / arabian king
    CHELMSFORD
    17-15 hello me / lady of desire
    18-15 extrodinair / tilsit / highfield princess
    18-45 red october / solid stone / data protection
    my picks
    SULA ISLAND 7/2 in good form all season was finishing very well last time out over course and distance. should see another good run today.
    TILSIT 50/1 EW ran well in france on the softer stuff earlier in the year. may well of needed the run last time out. interesting e/w
    DATA PROTECTION 22/1 E/W has had a slight dip in form as of late but has ability and at 22/1 could be a massive price if coming back to form

    as always good luck 🙂

  5. I ran with outsiders in Oct with some success so will continue with some more in Nov. I do small stakes to start with. Good luck.

    Double Court……………………….33/1 ew
    15:15Market Rasen
    Rollerruler……………………………..16/1
    14:50Sedgefield
    Rann Of Kutch……………………33/1ew
    15:25Sedgefield
    Our Cilla………………………………….16/1
    16:00Sedgefield
    No Risk Des Flos………………..14/1
    12:55Newbury
    Sammylou……………………………..20/1ew
    14:30Newbury
    The Bay Birch……………………….20/1ew
    15:05Newbury
    Lockdown Leader………………25/1ew couldn’t resist this one for all you in England.
    15:40Newbury
    Well Joey…………………………………12/1
    12:47Thurles

    Mike

  6. A few long priced flat horses for today, didn’t get chance to look at any jumps racing

    1845 Chlm – Data Protection 33/1
    1900 Kemp – Kingston Kurrajong 18/1
    1930 Kemp – Amber Island 25/1
    2030 Kemp – Triple Nickle 25/1

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