Members Daily Post: 31/10/20 (complete)

All TIPS x4 + write ups, Stats quals, Ascot Pointers, Update

1.Tips

2.Jumps Profiles 20/21: Report >>>

3.Monthly Trainers

4.Other/Updates (Punting Pointers HERE>>>)

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1.Tips

3.40 Ascot

#1 – Whatmore – 1 point win – 5/1 (WH/BetS/PP/BetF)

#2 – Valtor – 1 point win – 8/1 (bet365) 15/2 (gen)

as of 17.15…

3.05

#3 – Malaya – 1 point win – 6/1 (bet365/WH/BV)

#4 – Scaramanga – 1 point win – 12/1 (bet365/WH/BV)

as of 17.55, all write ups at bottom of post…

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2.Jumps Profiles 20/21

(All โ€˜any oddsโ€™) (7/50,19p, -8.2)

12.15 Ascot – Le Grand Fromage ♦ ♦ 15/2

12.25 Weth – Tintern Theatre ♦ 11/1

1.35 Weth – Guy ♦ ♦ 10/3

1.42 Ayr – Caltex H3ย  ♦ ♦ ♦ 2/1

3.05 Ascot – Hang In There (11/1 or shorter SP best) ♦ 15/2

3.40 Ascot – Flying Angelย ♦ 16/1

3.55 Weth – Shang Tang (11/1< best) ♦ 11/1

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3.Monthly Trainers

NTD

(3/39, 8p, -23.2)

12.25 Weth – Tintern Theatre (any, 10/1< best) 11/1

1.35 Weth – Guy (any, 10/1< best) 10/3

3.40 Ascot – Townshend (any, 10/1< best) 22/1

3.55 Weth – Ballyhill (8/1<) 20/1 ‘DNQ’

E Lavelle

(2/14,6p, -5.25)

12.47 Ascot – Celtic Joy (14/1<) 12/1

3.05 Ascot – Hang In There (14/1<) 15/2

3.55 Weth – Shang Tang (14/1<) 11/1

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4.Other/Updates

Saturday’s Ascot Pointers (part 1,2,3 inc Video)

PLEASE NOTE

A reminder that my new Winter Season Ticket goes live at 9am Sunday. Sunday’s post will be ‘free to air’ so as to give me time to solve any unforeseen issues, which hopefully don’t arise. But, well, they’re unforeseen! ๐Ÿ™‚

Important – for various reasons, from 4pm or so Friday, i’m deleting all existing wordpress users that exist in my system back end. If you’ve ever been a member, or registered, that will include you. This allows Sunday’s process to go smoothly, as if starting from scratch. I won’t bore you with the details but my system only sends ‘welcome emails’ to new accounts, and as said email will include your initial password needed to get in, its the best way forward.

Comments below- from now on I may have to manually approve any, but you can post as a ‘guest’ using the form you’ll see below in the comments section. If you then join the members club, you’ll be added into my wordpress system back end, and it will be back to ‘normal’. Hopefully that makes sense. But for most part you don’t need to do anything, just for the next day or so the Comments section may look a bit odd or take a while to come through, depending on how often I check to ‘approve’.

In effect you’ll have 60 days risk free from when you sign up in my Members Club to see if Adam and I can add to your enjoyment of the winter jumping game. I hope you’ll join us, initially at least ๐Ÿ™‚

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Tips Write Ups

3.40

Whatmore – I wanted one of the unexposed/could be more to come ones onside in this, and I suppose given their profiles it’s no shock they’re near the top of the market. I think 11/2 or so is fair for this one as I think 3m , esp around here, has every chance of unlocking so much more this season. He ran some good races when last seen, staying on at Cheltenham in a hot handicap. No disgrace being in between Hold The Note and Beakstown, the front two well ahead – Galvin (4/4 since, ‘will’ go close in National Hunt chase) and Imperial Aura. The former is smart, and they could have some fun with the latter this year. His runs before that were good – the Kempton effort could be marked up, 2l behind Black Corton who was 2nd that day. He was held up there, ridden too cold but he cruised around, as he did at Chelt, and Warwick, like a well handicapped horse. The rider dropped his whip before the last I think and he stayed on. He’d have gone close at Warwick but for hitting all sorts of trouble on the bend when tanking and that track didn’t suit him. Dickie has a good record on him, 3/7, 5p, the yard are in form, they can ready them and the horse has won/run well on seasonal return before. This could be his season as a chaser and this CD could unlock plenty. I’d like to think he’s been tuned up for this. I wouldn’t be shocked over this trip if they now rode him closer to the pace, I hope so anyway, and he does travel strongly. He surely has a handicap or two in him this season.

Valtor- lightly raced in the UK, and HRB doesn’t take account of runs in France for example, hence why he hits some of those ‘lightly raced’ stats/trends pointers. He does just enjoy this CD and since he’s been with Nicky, he seems best fresh, although he didn’t really run a bad race last season. Back in Dec 18 he took apart a handicap chase here over CD, off just 2lb lower on stable debut (70 days after his last French run) and he’s only had 6 runs since. On seasonal return here last year he won a C2 Novice hurdle, in the season that was meant to be all about the Grand National again. He went up to 160 after his demolition job here and the handicapper has been fairly kind as it hasn’t taken him many chase runs to drop 10. I just think this may be his Gold Cup/Grand National all rolled into one. Given his record here, his record fresh and his age, surely this has been the plan. Older horses have an ok record in this, the yard is in form, and arguably Aidan rides this track better than anyone else in this race (Jacob up at Wetherby for his retainer, so, they may be worth a glance also). I’ll live in hope he spread eagles these but in any case, he looked overpriced to do so. His win here in similar conditions was about 11 seconds faster than when Militarian won his race, but what that translates to in this, we shall see.

Of the rest… in some sort of order of interest/dangers, and these have been doing well in recent weeks, the buggers…

Commanche Red has more chase wins in him but he got whacked by the capper for that Kempton win, which having watched it back did fall apart a bit. Venetia’s fell that day when ahead, bringing down Hold The Note (ties in with Whatmore above on that Chelt run) and he was cruising there with a better track position, and I suspect would have gone close. Simply The Betts lost about 3L at every fence jumping to his left and stuck wide, and On The Slopes fell in a hole a bit and didn’t quite get home. That left this lad to cruise home by 9L, put up 13lb. He hurt himself next time and came back a bit lame so that can probably be ignored. I may have picked the wrong one between him at Whatmore, but that form in hurly burly handicaps, at Kempton and Chelt swung it, as did the fact he has ran over 3m a couple of times already, but not at a stiffer/more galloping track. And I also don’t know if 150 may be lenient or not, where I’m sure Whatmore moves like a horse who’s better than 138. But, a big run from him wouldn’t be a shock. I’ll hope he needs it, but he’s got a decent 3m pot in him – Paddy B told them to step him up and 3 won’t be a problem. He may need to go RH, I don’t know, but if he is well handicapped we should find out on next few starts.

Black Corton – He’s clear Top rated HRB and is obv solid – he was beaten in this last year off a a few lb lower, and while I think he may place, i’d like to think something will be better handicapped. He’s yet to win a handicap chase, 0/6,4p and his mark just makes it tough for him. I also think in a bigger field/strong pace, this stiff 3m just stretches him. But he has had a wind op, and I wouldn’t be shocked if he went close. BF will hope to dictate which he couldn’t do last year. He’s no Frodon though, for all he’s admirable. I’ve gone for two who I think are well handicapped. He may just run up to his mark and that will be enough, but Whatmore was only 2L off him at Kempton and i’d hope would reverse that here, if running his race. For all that it wasn’t Bryony’s finest ride, he should have won that day I think. So obviously that puts him in the mix.

I would be a tad miffed if one of the top four in the market doesn’t take this. I’ve picked two, cue the anguish! ๐Ÿ™‚

Of the bigger priced ones, I think only one worth mentioning, well maybe two… Militarian… he’s been backed as if tipped up somewhere. I can see why given his win here on seasonal return last year, admittedly in a much weaker race to my eyes. But if he’s A1, and this has probably been the plan, he could put up a bold show, for all that I think the four above should have too much class. But it’s no impossible they all don’t run their races. He is interesting but not quite enough for me in this race. Maybe it will put him spot on to defend his crown in that C3 around the 22nd Nov.

I should mention Regal Encore because of his record here. He is 12 now and can need the run these days. But he ran a fine 2nd in this last year and will probably run his race again. Not for me today. I’ll hope he’s rusty.

I didn’t really like the rest for one reason or another. It would be pleasant to see Blaklion return to some sort of form but that takes a leap of faith I as yet dont posses. I assume his year will be about the Grand National and his mark is fine, if it can be managed. They won’t want him tailing off too many times.

Mister Malarkey may have more chases in him this year for all that he may be hard to place. He ran atrociously in this last year, maybe it was too soft for him, but the yard form is a bit off putting also. I could leave him, maybe one i’m never destined to get right having talked myself out of him at Kempton, another crossed off last. I’ll improve one of these days.

Pace wise… Valtor should track the pace, and I hope Dickie isn’t too far off it, although Whatmore can be enthusiastic so I doubt he’ll hurl him forward, but he’s tried to lead over fences with him before. Bryony should be up there. You can see the pace map in the video. I suspect Militarian may be up there also.

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3.05 Ascot

Malaya – both these two hit my trends pointers and are in the right age bracket for this race. Nicholls is in decent form and given this mares record around here, i’d like to think this has been the plan and she’ll be primed. She’s only 2lb above her Imperial Cup success and she has the best handicap hurdle form in this race by quite some way. Of course she’s open to attack from an improver but she usually tanks through her races and 2m here is ideal. She won’t mind if there is some rain or if this rides softer than advertised. Well, the softer probably the better. I thought 6s looked more than fair given her overall form and she rarely doesn’t look like winner at some point around here. She’s entitled to be open to improvement this year also given her age.

Scaramanga – I just couldn’t resist at 12s for all I’ve a niggle that it may be too soft. I can’t think it’s riding as well as advertised and there could be some rain from lunchtime, but at his price, given his profile and assured fitness, I didn’t want to overthink it. He’s unexposed in handicap hurdles, esp when Good in the going, comes here on the back of a prep from the flat, and has course form. If the ground isn’t an issue he’s no 12s shot here and his jockey knows him well.

Of the rest/dangers..

Kid Commando will demolish 136 at some point, given his profile/his yard, who excel with these lightly raced handicappers. He wasn’t that impressive when last seen for me, he can take a tug and he will want further at some point this season. For while he may hack up he is inexperienced, you’re taking fitness on trust, he could get outpaced etc. For a 7/2 shot he had enough questions, he makes the market, and I wanted to take him on. There’s only one way to find out whether that’s wise, for all that AJH talks highly of him and thinks he could be a National Spirit type at Fontwell in the new year – that may be the mid term plan, if he’s good enough. (that’s from Mark Howard’s book) Maybe he will just cruise into this hard held but 7/2 shots in competitive Saturday handicap hurdles don’t pay long term. Well, not for me anyway!

Dear Sire... I’ll mention him, clear top rated HRB, he’s likely to run his race and may grab a place – I thought surely one of those with more proven class and/or unexposed, would surely have too much and he’d be asking a lot for them all to underperform – but he’s fit, in form, and should run his race. He doesn’t want it too soft but a solid run wouldn’t shock me and he did it well at Chepstow.

I could leave Countister at 5s, aged 8, first run in 300+ days and I think she wants further. She could go close, I didn’t think 5s overpriced given odd question I have, for all she’s a touch of handicapping class.

Sebastopol may take this – i’m on the fence as to the level of his form, he can take some riding, bit of a thinker I think – although Dickie a good booking for him (not sure where Johnny Burke is, may be worth a look) . He wouldn’t want the ground too soft either – I thought Malaya would beat him and Countister if running her race. Still, I won’t put you off 5s I suppose, he’s got an attractive profile and there should be more to come this season.

Hang In There… hmm, he was just a bit too naff for me LTO, wasn’t he? A strange run, never really put into it I suppose, took 3/4 hurdles with him. I don’t know, something put me off watching that back, for all maybe the ground was too testing. He should strip fitter I suppose, if it hasn’t emptied him already. An odd jockey booking – I think Aidan would have had the choice. Obv he’s Olly Murphy’s stable jockey now – he’s always ridden plenty for AJH, and of course Lavelle, in these Paisley Park colours. It could be significant he’s on Kid Commando, we shall see. I just wanted to see more LTO, for all that he’s also got an unexposed profile and some ok novice form to his name – but maybe only that.

If one of the other three beats me, so be it, I wasn’t that close.

That’s all from me on Sat, best of luck as always, Josh

What do you fancy in those races, do you think i’m talking nonsense? Do say, with a smile of course, and tell us what you like…

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

21 Responses

  1. A second and a poor effort on Thursday. Onto the last day of October with a healthy profit for the month in the bag, fifth month running.

    I was struggling a bit for selections on Saturday but am happy to go with these two:

    12.47 Ascot, Scene Hot Herd – won well last time out, has won in this class, has won at this distance, ground should suit. 2 pints win.

    2.45 Wetherby, Copperhead – a winner over hurdles and fences, has won in this class, won at this distance, should be prominent, a horse with a lot of promise. 1 point each way.

    Good luck Martin

  2. limiting myself to 5 today all ยฃ2 ew,
    Ascot 3-40. Regal Encore 12-1
    Down Royal 2-25. Tout Est Permis 16-1
    Newmarket 3-50. Get Knotted 7-1
    Wetherby 3-20. Ballyoptic 6-1
    3-55. Always Resolute 22-1

  3. A REMINDER…

    As per note above, all old ‘members’ and ‘registered’ accounts on the blog have been deleted/wiped – so that from tomorrow it is effectively starting from scratch. Your old usernames/passwords WILL NOT work – i’d i’m fortunate enough to have you sign up for the winter trial, during that process you’ll enter an email on the secure order form that will be your username and a new password will be emailed out, which you can then change once you’re in if you so wish. Basically, attack tomorrow as if you’ve never signed up to anything here previously ๐Ÿ™‚

    Josh

  4. Vice et Vertu 12.5 Wetherby 12/1 Wetherby

    On a good day he is very good,but just as likely to be tailed off and sulk.
    I’m going to give this old boy a final lash before retiring him to the memory file.
    Ran a good race 2 back when the legs couldn’t hold off a progressive El presente and
    that may the case again even on a good day.
    The positives is that Daly is in form,and Paddy is back on.All his chase wins have been Paddy up top so hopefully can cajole him along and keep him competitive.

  5. I`ll try and put write up`s on, time may go against me though.

    15:40 Ascot
    BLACK CORTON 1pt win 6/1 gen
    I think what swayed me was, runs in October where he`s 4/4 and the fact Bryony can do no wrong on front runners for Mr Nicholls, that wind op will do the trick 23% winners Mr Nicholls has after they have had such an operation in last 5 years.
    COMMANCHE RED 1pt win 6/1 gen
    Dutched the front two after the favourite, this horse I believe has just as much improvement in him as Whatmore, so, he beat some good horses at Kempton and even though the race fell apart, you have to win it at the end of the day and win it well he did!

    I fancied a few more and i agree with Josh, SCARAMANGA does stand out, so, will be going in on that one, but, for the purposes of “tipping”, this is the one race to look at.

    As always hope all horses and jockeys come back safe and sound and good luck with whatever your selections are today!
    Big race tomorrow out in Ireland and I do have one or two today, CHRIS`S DREAM i think will upset the big boys, price is short though…!

    1. Well, we’ll have both done a naff job on that race Stewart if neither of us has landed on the right one! ๐Ÿ™‚
      GL, if i’m wrong! ๐Ÿ™‚
      Josh

      1. Likewise, right back at you, know it looks obvious, but, like you said can`t see past first 4 in the market!

  6. Whats happened to all the big priced winners these days? It seems the top end of the market is prevailing just now but with it being a Sat hopefully all the “bandits” will romp home. Here we go.

    The Flying Ginger……………..10/1
    14:05Newmarket
    Editeur Du Gite………………….18/1
    13:20Ascot
    Frero Banbou……………………….9/1
    14:32Ascot
    Caius Marcius…………………..12/1
    15:05Ascot
    Tintern Theatre…………………10/1
    12:25Wetherby
    Townshend…………………………..25/1
    15:40Ascot

    Mike

    1. GL as always Mike – much of this may just be variance… you had a run where a biggie seemed to go in most days – the betting gods reminding us all it’s never quiet that easy! ๐Ÿ™‚
      Josh

  7. very, very tough day in my opinion

    I should have posted yesterday as I had a great day!

    My only bet is DJANGO DJANGO ew with 5 places

    I’ve had a hefty 4 unit ew bet but only because I won yesterday and he’s my only bet

    I was intending to bet AYE RIGHT in the Charlie Hall. Was 33/1 on Thursday. Price completely hammered in and I’m not on. Have to take it on the chin if he wins

  8. have just signed on the dotted line
    feeling good to be back in the gang
    looking forward to profits ๐Ÿ™‚
    cheers Josh, keep up the good work

    Sid

    1. Thanks Sid… as to not confuse anyone… I had a group of subscribers who I owed substantial time to when I paused subs in May and I emailed that group etc this morning – Sid hasn’t jumped the queue ๐Ÿ™‚

  9. Hi Josh,

    Iโ€™ll be signing up.

    One thing, you have got to change the new dark green colour scheme, itโ€™s really depressing and uninviting.

    1. Hi Shane,

      Ah – well, thanks for your feedback. I thought there was enough white around, esp when in blog posts that it all looked good – and while such things are taste i suppose, depressing and uninviting isn’t what we want! ๐Ÿ™‚

      Cheers, Josh

  10. Hmmm…. ยฃ20 e/w on Definitely Red at Wetherby 15:05….. maybe not, but the old boy might get a place at a decent price. The fav probably hacks up though

  11. Pat on the back Josh for once again highlighting the winner of 3.40 Ascot in Royal Encore (14/1)your write up highlighted the forecast and Tricast also well done
    You analysing of the race was spot on keep the good work up
    Errol

    1. Thanks Errol, I like your glass half full attitude! I wish I was wise enough to go with him but if the write up helped you land on him, good stuff. That is their purpose. His age and his record after a break over fences put me off but obv in hindsight it makes sense he’d be tuned up for his life, for all that ‘The Whatmore’ profile is the right long term type, but he’s been out stayed and /or outfought. Not sure if he’s a bit soft. I though he may just cruise past with more in hand but there we go. I didn’t have anything on Regal, more fool me. But what a horse and superb day for AJH, class trainer. All bar one of mine ran their race but just were not good enough on day so can’t complain. The odd one will start falling in again soon. Just hope elite sport isn’t also put into lockdown. Surely not.
      Josh

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