Members Daily Post: 30/10/20 (upd1)

Quals, Sat pointers

1.Tips

2.Jumps Profiles 20/21: Report >>>

3.Monthly Trainers (Jumps)

4.Other/Updates (Punting Pointers HERE>>>)

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1.Tips

None.

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2.Jumps Profiles 20/21

(All ‘any odds’) (7/50,19p, -8.2)

3.20 Weth – Equus Millar ♦ 7/2 UP -1

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3.Monthly Trainers (Jumps)

NTD

(3/39, 8p, -23.2)

2.00 Uttox – Yaazaain (8/1<)

3.55 Weth – Noble Savage (20/1<) 80/1 ‘DNQ’ (on 8am odds)

E Lavelle

(2/14,6p, -5.25)

None.

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4.Other/Updates

All things Ascot below… inc VIDEO preview & stats/trends shortlists etc…

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

18 Responses

    1. Technically this isn’t a qualifier though as it’s Newcastle and not Southwell, right? Or you think there is something specific with this runner?

      1. Hi Adam,

        Gerry has his own pointers for KB at various AW tracks, inc those Southwell angles discussed – I think one of Gerry’s replies in previous posts, as to some of things he looks at, was deleted along with a few other comments when the site was switched over.

        Having just had a quick look in Geegeez…

        Burkes 2YO runners at Newcastle in last 2 years are 9/47, 27p, 19% win SR, +69 SP

        That does include Nursery handicap runners… which are 1/15, 10p, +19 SP… includes a 33/1 winner

        So, all 2YO non handicaps… 8/32, 17p, 25% +50 SP last two years

        When Ben Curtis rides, all 2YO… 6/17, 14p, +18 SP, in last two years.

        He’s 0/4,4p on the Nursery handicap runners, so 6/13,10p, +22 on the non handicap Karl Burke 2YOs, at Newc, last two years.

        Josh

  1. A 9/4 > 6/4 winner and a loser on Thursday.

    Two at Wetherby on Friday:

    1.35, William H Bonney – has had a pipe opener, trainer in good form, has won in this class. 2 points win.

    2.10, Two For Gold – 3/4 over fences, trainer in good form, has won in this class, course winner, should get the lead. 2 points win.

    Good luck Martin

    1. Yes i can see the value angle for IK Brunel at 9/2. Not sure who will lead but will likely come down to who can jump well? I so have IK Brunel in my horses to follow so will see how he jumps the first three or four and maybe get involved.

      Good luck.

  2. Morning, for some reason it has me down as maccas71? haven`t used that for a long, long while.
    Anyways onto todays, short write ups again, sorry. Trying, as Josh says, to not overthink these races, so, one obvious and one not so obvious in each one…always seemed to work for me in the past and hopefully will keep me on the straight and narrow.
    2:10 Wetherby
    BORN SURVIVOR 1pt win 5/1 gen
    5`s is too big in my eyes, c and d winner, runs well fresh, from the Skelton yard, could go on and on with all the positives!
    CHARMANT 1pt win 10/1 gen
    Another C and D winner and i think has been targeted for this, won`t mind the rain and at 10`s is the value in the race.

    3.35 Down Royal
    TIMOTEO 1pt win 5/1 gen
    moved to class yard, could be anything, at the odds thought, just value and well handicapped, should run these into the ground.
    DIAMOND TURF 1pt win 10/1 gen
    May be second string, but, could maybe sneak this, think these two will maybe pull each other round. has run over c and d and posted a decent effort. We shall see?

    As Always, hope all horses and jockeys come back safe and sound and good luck with whatever you select today, see you tomorrow.

    Stewart.

    1. Hi Stewart,

      I’ve changed your display name back end, so hopefully Stewart next time you post!

      The wordpress back end has been giving me some headaches for various reasons – I think we are going to delete all users before Sunday, so that there are no problems for those who join – ‘welcome’ emails with log in details only seem to go to those with new accounts, rather than existing ones in wordpress back end – and it turns out I have around 70 000 registered users… most of them all bots etc! As some settings been wrong in the old blog since day 1, so such bots were not blocked etc. Ah, tehcnology.

      So, at some point before Sunday I suspect all old comments will suddenly be from ‘anonymous’ and then we can start again, but until Sunday can post as a guest using the usual form etc.

      Anyway, GL today!

      I see Born Survivor’s best form is on Good, but that he’s won a chase on soft before…!! 🙂 🙂

      Josh

      1. Yes, your right Josh, we can sometimes over think the going and many other factors, my mate who works down in the Tizzard yard, said that Mr T told them of a horse once, who only ran well when there was a shower/ rain during running, would run ok when it was dry, but, when it was showery, or, raining would put extra effort in. They spent ages trying to work out whether it was the going, jockey, course etc. etc. then one of the head lads said lets put it to the test and allegedly the horse did win from then on, in the rain, how true that is I don`t know, but, think the moral from that is horses are as quirky as humans and even in the equestrian world, they have their fair share of Gazzas also!

    2. Hmmm. don`t know what went on with Gordon`s horses? one drifted from favourite to 16/1 in running, just after they had set off and the other looked shell shocked after the first 2 fences… quirky, is an understatement. Ah well, back to the drawing board!?

    1. Well done Colin. You’ve been hitting the crossbar recently here and over on Elite, but two nice winners and a 2nd place. Wish I’d done the Patent!!

      1. Thanks Ken, yes it’s been a frustrating time but green shoots of recovery are showing on all services, and looking forward to Colins bets, once again thank you for your support.
        Colin

  3. Hi Josh, not commented on here for a while but now the NH is back up and running thought i’d add a comment or two. The new website looks nice and hopefully the new business model / approach is a success!! Also good to see your trainer profiles ticking away so far.

    Had the 14.10 down to three horses – Two for Gold, Louis Vac Pouch and Charmant. Trip/yard form made me rule out Joke Dancer, HD and Born Survivor look rated to their ability ceiling and q’s about the class/ground conditions for the rest.

    Have been tracking LVP since its run at carlisle last November when not put into the race at all. Horse seems to have the ability and can remember it bolting up in a big field handicap hurdle at Aintree a few years back. Never seemed to progress from that with Hobbs and combined with the “well known ownership” whether that’s why it moved to Oliver from Hobbs originally? Anyway the horse has ran its best chase races in a g3 & g2 making me think it’ll be trying today in this Listed contest. This race looks easier than the Brown & Advisory and the form behind Secret Investor 2 years ago makes me think a mark of 139 looks workable. Is 12lb or so better go with HD on the March running for an 8 length or so beating so handicapped to turn things round with her atleast. Also dutched with Charmant given the ease it won with over C&D in Jan, just worried about the form of the Ewart stable. Hoping the 2 and half mile trip will be on the short side for Two For Gold but looks the pace angle in the race and could use its stamina to stretch this lot out if wound up. Just thought 3/1 was a bit skinny against the field.

    Best of luck with whatever anybody’s backing today.

    1. Hi Leon,

      Thanks for posting, as always. Yes, fingers crossed! Up to me to make it successful, and with any luck Adam and I can add to everyone’s jumps experience this winter. But that’s up to me to get right and if I don’t i’ll no doubt get what I deserve! It’s a rather big week ahead, and 60 days (30 day trial/30 day refund period) and season, could be business defining really. I think I like that pressure and it won’t be for the lack of effort.

      Yep, trainer profiles started ok – this time of year always tricky and a fair few quals i’ve looked at that seemingly had big questions to answer, plenty prob needing the run or two also and a few yards have been cold. And there’s no odds cap so should be bumpy at times, systematically at least. And I missed an 8s/10s Harry Fry winner having failed to save the sodding angle properly – so, it’s ticking along, and with any luck a clutch of winners in next few weeks. If they could make 50 points i’d bite your hand off, but the wheels may come off, we shall see! I think the research is sound on paper, but real life always a different beast. But they will find winners/placed horses at decent prices, so they should be of some use.

      GL today, I haven’t looked at any races today really. Louis V P should will win something, the market should guide, and maybe today is the day! While he was never at MR to win I doubt and will have badly needed it, it was still a poor effort I thought, ridden so far out. Maybe he will bounce back strongly today, or they’ve another plan.

      I do believe Mr Hobbs asked said owner to take all of his horses away / he wouldn’t follow the ‘plans /instructions’ of what was meant to happen in any given race, so owner removed them. It was one of the two. He clearly fell out with Oliver also for some reason and now all at Phil Kirby’s, with a chance of colours to boot.

      Josh

  4. A small loss on Monday with an enhanced place for The Mackem Torpedo

    Results to date 4/17 (10 places) +13.9

    2 for tonight:

    4.15 Great Colaci 1pt win 4/1 – A repeat of his run on Monday should see him go very close

    8.15 Be Proud 1pt e/w 11/2 (4 places) – Noted his run earlier in the month – has a better draw today in a slightly weaker race.

  5. nothing original from me today really although i have had £2 on Leskinfere Uttox 3-10 @ 980.0 probably will look to lay it in running if i can get a decent price.

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