Members Daily Post: 28/10/20 (complete)

Quals, web updates, Really Super

1.Tips

2.Jumps Profiles 20/21: Report >>>

3.Monthly Trainers (Jumps)

4.Other/Updates (Punting Pointers HERE>>>)

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1.Tips

None.

2.Jumps Profiles 20/21

(All ‘any odds’) (7/45,17p, -3.2) 

1.40 Taunt – Kuiper Belt (20/1< best) ♦ 20/1 UP -1

3.10 Taunt – Get Back Get Back H1 ♦ ♦ 7/2 UP -1 

4.10 Taunt – Mr Caffrey H3 ♦ ♦ 11/1 3rd, -1 

3.Monthly Trainers (Jumps)

NTD

(3/36, 7p, -20.2)

2.40 Taunt – Bombers Moon (8/1<) 5/1 UP -2

E Lavelle

(2/14,6p, -5.25)

None.

4.Other/Updates 

WEBSITE UPDATE

All being well the new site will appear this evening, over night. The web address will be the same, and the tabs etc at the top are nearly all the same. You’ll be able to scroll down to find this blog post, or hit ‘blog’. I’ve no doubt there will be some teething issues to sort in next day or two.

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Really Super… 7.15 Kempton 

Well, you should never listen to an ‘owner’ but I’ll be disappointed if she doesn’t win this, and win it well. I think she’s the one to beat, if running to her best. She took a circuit to pull up at Chelm  and was only just getting going, for all that it was a poor race, a career best for her on RPRs on the flat/aw, and she’s tactically versatile. In fairness, the two above her in the market have done nothing wrong and I won’t fall off my seat if one beats us. But I just think she’s better than them and now mature, this 2m on the AW could bring about plenty more – for all that she technically has to prove she does stay it on the flat. She probably won’t be much of a price, 3s or so. I’ll hope she makes that look big, and collect my £250 odd share in prize money 🙂 She’s here to run her race as always and based on how she is at home, she will. She’ll be off on her holidays after, before returning in late April/early March. No idea if there are any targets for chasing mares at the Festival these days…. ! 🙂

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From Monday’s post in case you missed it…

NEW 1 – JUMPS PROFILES 2020/21  – REPORT HERE>>>

(includes an update to my ‘RTP Star Ratings’, based on my subjective confidence levels, which i’ve decided will be a 3 star scale. They’re a bit of fun really and we will see if of any use in time) 

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NEW 2 – I was invited onto a podcast and you can listen to my ramblings HERE>>> 

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NEW 3 – Weekend Review Video... below… not too much of a pity party but hopefully something of use…

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

42 Responses

  1. Just a quick word on Karl Burke… maybe Martin first flagged, or Gerry, or both… anyway Ken posted up two superb winners on Monday and I have had a quick dive into HRB…

    So yep, you can just back them all to BFSP is best, as a fair few biggies go in. He’s been consistent since 2008 which is as far back as HRB goes for such trainer research – and the market over time still hasn’t really caught up.

    In truth the sort to not really mess around with. It could be the strongest trainer/track angle of all time, (back to 2008) both for results and it’s simplicity…

    But those aged 2-5, 0-3 runs at South on the AW… 209 bets / 54 wins / 96 places / 26% sr/ +228 SP / +420 BFSP.

    That’s before Monday’s x2 winners.

    He clearly knows what horses will relish it, and many may not have shown much previously, esp on turf, hence the prices.

    Josh

    1. So they’ve got to have between 0-3 runs specifically at Southwell AW. That’s such a simple angle even I understand it! Any idea how many runners fit this criteria from him each year?

        1. yep that’s correct Adam… well it has some basic logic I think- horse unexposed on the surface, trainer thinks may improve for it – but time you get to 4+ they’ve obviously had a few runs, market can assess better, capper may have them -of those aged 3-5, with 4+ runs at Southwell AW, 5/49, 15p. -12 starting price, +1 BFSP. So, they will have winners, but as yet don’t tend to pay.

          Yea so you’re looking at 30-40 a calendar year really – 33 so far this year, 43 in 2019. his last 3 years have been the best/most consistent, now 32/109, 59 placed (inc winners) +165 BFSP.

          You could just ignore those that are 4/1 or shorter SP – you have to make a judgement pre race of course, or set a min in Betfair maybe – but those sent off 4/1< or shorter... 28/80, 48p, 35% sr, -2 SP, +4 BFSP ... that's since 2008 - so the ones at the top of market can be ignored if you wanted to, for all that obviously plenty win. But he does have decent priced ones fly in and at BFSP that may be the place to focus. I've just checked that 'angle' (age 2-5, 0-3 track runs) against the other AW tracks, and Southwell stands out by a mile, and not worth applying to the others, for all there will be other angles for those. But South is unique and he tends to know what's needed/his seem to like it and have the stamina/fitness for it. Josh

  2. Fontwell 3.10 Harry Fry’s Get Back Get Back, why hasn’t this been selected on your trainer profiles, it’s a handicap hurdle and top weight?

    1. Ah yes, thanks for that… an error my end I think somewhere with how I’d saved the angle I think – I always seem to make one such error, and will double check the rest now. Well, there’s a chance that one angle didn’t save properly at all for some reason. A horrible feeling that’s missed Captain Drake when winning earlier in the month, and he may have been 8s>5s or so. Bugger.

      1. No worries, I do all my stuff manually n found that 1 yesterday as soon I discovered your trainer profiles n checked yours this evening n you hadn’t put it up so I checked several times that it wasn’t my mistake when I informed you.

        1. It is appreciated and I do rely on the odd eagle eye! My stuff is all saved in HRB to avoid me making such errors/missing the damn things – but that’s problematic if you’ve made an error when saving system, or on this occasion failing to… thanks to you that may have stopped some future pain before it was spotted.

  3. I don’t know if you do trainer angle suggestions pal but I’ve been backing Roger Fell runners on flat turf/All weather blind throughout October and this angle has kept my head above water in a very tricky month including a 28/1 winner at Newcastle on Monday and numerous other nicely priced winners. Definitely an angle that’s gone in next years diary. I don’t use HRB and this is the first time I’ve used this angle but you might want to make a note of this 1 or maybe even narrow it down a bit so we don’t have to back blindly.

    1. Oh trainer angle suggestions are always welcome- esp the odd AW one over the winter also, as there are plenty of AW fans around, for all that the majority of my stuff at this time of year is jumps. When things quieten down a bit and i’ve got my re-launch etc out the way, and also now this site is done, i’ll have more time to do research articles, trainers in focus etc. But yep, any ideas or thinking aloud always welcome in these parts, and many a reader here has better ideas than I do! 🙂

  4. PLEASE NOTE…

    The comments… when the Members’ Club is back, and indeed i’ve sorted a few things out re registrations etc inc for free users and those who never wish to join the Winter Season Ticket etc, posting comments should be straight forward.
    But for now I am going to have to manually approve plenty, so please be patient. The site is up all the time anyway during and I check it regularly, so won’t be long before ‘approved’ etc.

    Josh

  5. Josh – ooh the new web site it looks a lot more professional, a really clean layout trust you think it’s a step forward

    1. Cheers- yep I’m happy with it and agree think it looks much more professional etc. Yep I think it is, now just to get all the content on point! 🙂

    1. Hi Ken,
      Ah yep, they have – they may well be lost forever, i’ll see if I can get them back – suspect during a time when all sorts was migrating etc back end, so annoyingly they may be gone.
      Josh

      1. No problem, just thought it might be a glitch that needed to be fixed for future posts. New site looks good.

  6. 4 for today but smaller stakes just 1/4 pt ew and a L15.
    Nottingham.
    1-15. Stringybark Creek
    2-20. Show Palace
    (still pondering Thorntoun Care in 3-50, becoming a bit of a cliff horse for me)
    Taunton.
    1-40. Kuiper Belt
    4-10. Vice Et Vertu
    will probably have tiny bets on Agincourt Reef and Layerthorpe in the 2-40.

  7. I did email Tuesday evening but they have dissappeared.

    Anyway….I did pick up on a Karl Burke angle at Southwell two years ago. It has had its ups and downs but has been profitable since then. yesterday was a big day for it but you can have a losing run. You can refine it down but in its basic form it is profitable in recent years. Karl Burke at Newcastle also works but is not as profitable as Southwell.

    No joy on Tuesday for my picks, 0/2, but a profitable day thanks to Karl Burke.

    Two for Wednesday at Kempton:

    4.45, Breckland – trainer in OK form, Course winner, should get the lead here, draw OK. 1 point each way.

    5.45, Dark Phoenix – course and distance winner, trainer in good form, 7LB claimer takes weight off, has won in this class, should get the lead here, draw OK. 1 point each way.

    Good luck Martin

  8. COLINS BETS
    3.50 Nottingham Thorntoun Care

    Josh, new site looks good, thought the racing picture would have been Really Super!

    1. Thanks Colin. Ha, finding one of the right quality is the challenge there! I should hunt one down from one of the racecourse photographers and get her somewhere! Those various images are easy enough to change and an easy way to refresh the pages in time.

      Josh

        1. Ah yes, thanks Harry – forgot about that article/online… i’ll save them and see what they’re like. Always helpful when a close mates is the journalist! 🙂 Turned into a good article I think. 🙂
          Josh

  9. Another blank day sorry need to get my act together.

    Little Ted………………………22/1
    13:15Nottingham
    Multellie…………………………8/1
    14:50Nottingham
    Thorntoun Care………….7/1
    15:50Nottingham
    Train Hill…………………………8/1
    13:02Fakenham
    Foreign Secretary…….14/1
    15:10Taunton

    Mike

  10. New website VERY nice.
    I’m am still here if anyone was wondering. Unfortunately covid playing havoc with staff at work. As I couldn’t give it my full attention I would rather not post anything. Fingers crossed back tomorrow with the lists.

    1. Thanks Warren, good to hear from you, I had wondered where you’d got to. Still, a quieter few days on the racing front/analysis is never a bad thing for the mind.

    1. Thanks John… ah, that’s my artistic flair you see! ha – thankfully I found the right person to work with who i’d met when hot desking in Liverpool. Its a big difference when you worth with a pro web developer. But it does look much more professional I think, and is also much more user friendly on mobile etc, although no doubt can improve the odd thing over time still.

  11. Yes, i’ll see what I can do there! … the : ) (no space) does lead to a smiley face at least when posted… 🙂 I’ll look at whether some functionality can be added to what’s here – imojis, a ‘like’ button etc.

  12. I was taking a look at Really Super’s race and though that Dance To Paris was not bad value at 6/1 in a six runner race? Down two classes and Hollie Doyle on board.
    perhaps a reversed forecast with Really Super?

    1. I have blinkers on Martin so I won’t dive into such chat haha – I think connections of the top 2, (who are the only ones still open to progress to my eyes – as opposed to those coming back down to winning marks/below) will be disappointed if their unexposed ones get beat! And I think we have more class than Indigo but maybe it will be a tactical affair, and in that scenario its jockeyship etc. Kieran should get a more prom position today I think, we shall see if he can win the race off the bend or not. There is a chance she doesn’t fully stay 2m on the flat, but given what she did at Chelm, and that this won’t be strongly run either, there shouldn’t be an excuse. But, time will tell. GL if you go with Dance to Paris, but not too much 🙂

  13. The best of luck with Really Super but I do think General Zoff is an interesting price purely from a betting point of view.

    Yesterday, I was at the Catterick swamp to see Praxeology come 2nd again. Really pleased with him, he tried his best but soft is soft enough for him, it was a miserable day weather wise.

    Expect to see him on the AW in the next few weeks, depending if the handicapper drops him to 80 next week will determine what route we take.

    How do I become a member?

    1. Ah yes I did see, decent effort from P and yep with any luck you have some fun with him on the AW, no doubt you will.

      I do have blinkers with Super – she is going to hit her ceilings in all codes at some point, but as yet she hasn’t. And I still think she’s well handicapped on the flat/AW and could be even more so over this trip – but has it to prove. At some point in next year she will be running the ‘this is as good as I am’ type races though, and maybe tonight is the start of those on the AW, for all my head and heart thinks she may hack up, but that’s separate from a discussion of odds etc. 9/4 may well be about right.

      Member sign up… oh just click that gold button in the top right of the blog from 9am Sunday. Or if on mobile scroll down to the bottom. I’m still solving the odd technical gremlin etc – out with the general nerves over whether enough people sign up for the trial 🙂 Josh

  14. Hi Josh, this is more of a trial post rather than having anything to say as, on the old format, especially latterly, most of my comments never made it to the big screen. Unfortunately for me though, nobody would have missed any nuggets as I had a particularly poor flat season so hoping for better now ! The new site looks great.

    1. Hmm, very odd Andrew – no idea on the comments front, I never saw them back end – maybe it was a ‘cached’ images issue or something – some strange things went on after the server was changed and the site was repeated on a development site. A few glitches crept in that I assumed would be sorted when all the updates took place – and so far that looks to be the case.
      Thanks, the feedback seems positive which is always good. You never quite know!
      Josh

  15. Hi Josh, I’ve had a few issues with posting the last 3 or 4 times with them not making it to the blog. Not a concern as was only giving a thumbs up to some of the guys who post regularly with their tips. Love the new look and will definitely be rejoining. Well done Josh, onwards and upwards for RTP!!

    1. Thanks Tom, much appreciated. Yep been the odd gremlin in recent weeks for one reason or another, hopefully comments wise its sorted now. Glad you like the new look! Onwards and upwards 🙂
      Josh

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