Members Daily Post: 25/10/20 (complete)

All Tips x3 + write ups, Quals,

1.Tips

2.Jumps Profiles 20/21

3.Monthly Trainers (Jumps)

4.Other/Updates

(Blog Content Explained: to follow. Punting Pointers HERE>>>)

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1.Tips

1.22 Aintree

# 1- One Style – 1 point win – 7/1 (gen) UP -1

#2 – Joe Farrell – 1 point win – 10/1 (bet365/Unib) 9/1 (WH) UP -1

1.57 Aintree

#3 – Oldgrangewood – 1 point win – 7/1 (888/Unib) 13/2 (gen) UP -1

That’s all from me today, as of 09.50, write ups at bottom…

 

2.Jumps Profiles 20/21

(All ‘any odds’) (5/35,15p, -5.2)

1.57 Aint – Yorkhill ♦ 22/1 UP

4.25 Hex – Mymilan ♦ 7/2  UP

 

3.Monthly Trainers (Jumps)

NTD

(3/34, 7p, -18.2)

3.42 Aint – Earlofthecotswolds (8/1<) 14/1 ‘DNQ’ (on 8am odds) UP 15/2

E Lavelle

(2/13,6p, -4.25)

2.52 Winc – Manofthemountain (14/1<)  H1

3.27 Winc – Viva Vittoria (14/1<) H3 16/1 ‘DNQ’ (on 8am odds) UP

 

4.Other/Updates

Tips write ups…

1.22 

One Style 

Well, he tends to have One Style, and that’s get out, make all. Or try to. VW/CD are in form from what we have seen, she has them ready. I think he could get an uncontested lead here which is always likely to lure me in. He’s 5/8 over fences and has ‘young’ legs in a race like this, and I like to try and have one of those onside. He does need to step up a bit but there was enough there at 7s, and in what could be hard work, he will keep going. He went off too hard at Cheltenham before falling in a hole. VW won this last year with Burton’s Well and I can hope it’s been the target again. It’s a decent pot to win considering he could have had his sights slightly lowered for his return. I suspect VW thinks he’s still well handicapped and wants to strike for  half decent pot. He should give me a good spin anyway. Whether something has more ‘class’ come the end, we shall see.

Joe Farrell

I just thought the rain may help him as it will slow things down a bit and he’s had a run, which may be no bad thing in this. I thought his Chepstow return was solid. That was a deep Vets race for me, Present Man/Crosspark in the top 3 indicating as such. But it all happened a bit too quickly for him on that ground/trip and he walked through 4 out, when he hadn’t got motoring and was just ahead of Crosspark at the time. That knocked the stuffing out of him. Interesting that they put CP on for the first time. I can see why, to sharpen up his jumping. But this ground/pace may help him there. I hope they ride him close to the pace also, in a no excuses position, and if he can hold a position he will run a big race. He looked overpriced to me. Of course, he may just have regressed further but he showed plenty last season and is lightly raced over fences for his age. While i’ll try not to give back all of our 2018 Scottish National winnings his Hennessy run was ok, given the oppo, and his Midlands National run was very good. He was ahead three out there, before probably not getting home in the ground. But he was left behind by two unexposed / younger types, Truckers Lodge taking it having run 2nd in The Welsh National the run before. Captain Drake, who was my poke in that, a decent 2nd. He hacked up on his return over hurdles and should have some sort of National in him maybe – regional possibly, but he handles the mud fine. I think he looks set to run a big race, fingers crossed. I thought Sean may have had the choice of a couple in here, but I could have that wrong – he’s ridden Ballydine plenty for example. Well, that’s the only one he maybe could have ridden.

Of the rest…

In order of some preference maybe… hmm…

I like Minella Celebration – at what was 6s/13/2, I thought that wasn’t value given my ground concerns. I don’t think he wants it proper soft, but we shall see. I think he will run a decent race but something will outstay him in last 1-2 furlongs.

Sametegal – at what was 4s, he has stamina to prove in soft, and looking at a few of his last few runs i’m not sure he wants 25f in soft. I could be wrong on that one but I didn’t think he was overpriced given that question. I think there will be stronger stayers here for all that he has solid form when last seen, in the context of a vets race.

Vieux Lion Rouge – I won’t put you off him but Pipes been a bit hit and miss in recent weeks and I suppose that swung it for me, for all that the horse has a superb record fresh. I thought Joe having a run (if he runs his race, as always) would see him reverse their Chepstow vets form last season. But if back to that form he’d be thereabouts.

I thought Vintage Clouds would need it, although he does have an ok record fresh. I can’t have Sue’s at the moment yet really, they’re generally needing it and not firing and in last couple of seasons have generally seemed to leave their handicap chasers a little short of fitness on first start. If he was a1 he’d run well, but I wonder if they are targeting one of those Haydock races he likes, get his mark down a bit while building up fitness. He was woeful on his return run at Kelso last season, the year before that he won on his retunr, but in late November.

Ballydine – interesting given soft is fine, he stays and is lightly raced for a race like this. But he’s clearly had issues and taking fitness on trust. But he is interesting at what was 14s or so. Still, not enough there for me. He’s clearly a bit brittle which I suppose means he may be a1, tricky. IF they could keep him sound, given his Sandown form, he’d be of interest for the Vets Final, and maybe that’s the grand plan. I could see him going ok, if fit, and running his race. Hard to know what to expect though. And I hope Sean had the pick.

Actival – has to prove his stamina and in this ground. Not really for me, for all that he’s got a lightly raced profile for a race like this also. One to keep an eye on as he could have one of these in him, and as he gets older 3m could be what he wants.

Don Poli is being well backed but I can’t have him, for all that if he ever got back to anywhere near his best, could hold a position etc, he’d take some stopping. He clearly has his supporters and it would be fun to see him run a big race again, somewhere. He is just a bit slow though.

I did look at Pobbles with some mild interest as he’s 10 and can go well fresh, yard in decent form and will relish the ground. But he is usually ridden patiently, can hit a fence, and his form when last seen leaves a few questions. I’d hope the market would guide with him but he may run a race of promise and could be worth keeping an eye on for a similar  contest.

I could leave the two 13 year olds and if one takes it then i’ll sit and applaud. Perfect Cadidate has never won fresh I don’t think and Colin’s are a bit hit and miss at the moment also.

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1.57

Oldgrangewood…

Hmm, I was toying with leaving the race, wading in with Itchy Feet or finding one that could take this if he doesn’t… and my pin landed on this one who looked worth a go at 13/2 I thought.

The main question really is fitness – has he been primed for this or is it a prep? All in the context this is a weak renewal also. I think he was transformed by the wind op in the off season last year. He returned here last year, in a decent handicap in Nov, a solid 3rd. As was the case in this race in 2017, packed with 150+ horses that day. Both those two races were much deeper than this I think. If I ignore Itchy Feet for a moment… is there a Cepage or Riders On The Storm in this, as with his return race here last season? No. A repeat of last year’s return may be enough. He sprouted wings after his return last year, suggesting he probably needed it. His Newbury win was decent and his two Cheltenham efforts, the win and the 4th, were so solid, running on in both. They were up there with career bests on RPRs, and they’ve realised this is his trip, having tried 25f a few times in what was an interrupted season the year before. As handicappers go…ignoring Itchy Feet/Midnight Shadow… none of the others can match his handicapping form of last season, they don’t come that close – (for all that obviously I like the Summer Plate form – Imperial Presence formlines etc, but that was no Festival Stable Plate sadly) Dan’s team are in fine form, he is a target trainer, and I just wonder if this year they thought about having a proper go at this. They can ready them, and he’s placed a few times on seasonal returns. Given his age and how hard handicaps will be after Xmas, it would make perfect sense to have him primed for this. He’s ran here 6 times over fences, placed in 4.

IF fit, and 13/2 was just big enough for me in the context of this race/his recent form when last seen, I thought he’d be the one to give the fav most to think about.

The dangers…

Itchy Feet – well he isn’t 4s like Rouge Vif or 11/2 like Frodon – those two were also miles clear top rated HRB ratings (urgh, I know) , they both had winning records fresh, had more chase experience and usually raced up there, leading/or tracking the pace. Those are the factors that in hindsight should have lured me in at 4s, 11/2 (as well as their form/profiles of course). He doesn’t tick any of those boxes and I thought 3s about right. He will come on for the run I suspect, but of course he may have so much in hand it doesn’t matter. I think he will have him ready enough though, as he’s one of his best horses. His jumping will be put under pressure. I can live with him hacking up at 3s, more so than the other two, but I won’t be putting you off a saver or from wading in if you think he’s the one – and my danger horses have been doing fairly well in recent days. A game of fine margins at this end of the market when making decisions, and an area I’ve always struggled with.

Magic Saint is interesting but he does have stamina to prove and this ground won’t help in that regard. Given that I could leave him, for all that he’s lightly raced an ‘unexposed’ in conditions, so could leave me with egg on my face.

I didn’t really want to be with anything else. Of course all three of those may fluff their lines, and then it really is open.

I don’t like the Tizzard yard form really at the moment and his horse is hit and miss, for all that he has ability. I didn’t think 6s or so was overpriced given his profile, his chase win in a 2 runner race, stuffed at Cheltenham in the Stable Plate, for all that all of Colin’s ran that week as if they were ill. Very odd. He’s had a wind op which may help. Not for me at the odds today.

Midnight Shadow will go very close, and may win, if fit. But i’ve taken a strong view on Sue’s, generally, esp her handicap chasers – now 1/46, 4p in the last 2 years with handicap chasers returning after 60+ days off. The yard 1/27 last 30 days, 0/16,2p the last 14. The horse does have a decent record fresh though, so maybe those stats irrelevant, but I was happy to leave today. I could have him wrong though, obv on his Itchy Feet 2nd, he’d be entitled to go close if a1.

Imperial Presence is in superb form and will give it a good go from the front I suspect. He won’t live with some of these if they run his race and the capper may have him now. A repeat of his last two runs shouldn’t be good enough but he could be one of a few to run his race of course. Although that was some slog when last seen and it may leave a mark. Annie Mac should have more chases in her this year, and will look well handicapped at some point no doubt. But she has 3/4 runner C4 novice chase form, so I want to see more in a race of this nature before backing with confidence. Interesting one though.

Nuts Well may grab a place but again his form isn’t up to some of these for all that he still seems to be improving. A bold show wouldn’t shock me but a few should be too good and he may be best on better ground. If Yorkhill wins, fair enough. Some training feat and at least a decent priced winner for the Trainer Profiles quals. It would be great to see Sandy get him back to something like his best as they could have some fun. He’s always found jumping a struggle though. It will be fascinating to see what he can do this year. I thought the other two had enough questions also. Getting Twisters right is proving a challenge this autumn, sadly. Clondaw Castle wants better ground I think and again Tom George not firing on all cylinders just yet.

Anyway, a fascinating race – and rather open IF Itchy Feet doesn’t take this. I had to take him on, as is my want with 3s shots in races like this but we shall see. He may make that look big.

Pace wise… Crievehill, Cracking Destiny, Nuts Well, Imperial, Vision can be up there, prom. Oldgrangewood was ridden closer to the pace than he has been at times when last seen, and on his return last year – hopefully Harry has him behind the pace, on the rail, mid pack, and not held up out the back.

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As always, GL with any bets,

Josh

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

25 Responses

  1. An easy 12/1 winner and a loser on Saturday.

    Two for Aintree on Sunday:

    1.22, Minellacelebration – a winner last time out albeit in July, a course and distance winner, goes on the ground.
    1.57, Itchy Feet – handicap debut, maybe outclasses this lot? Has won in this class. 2 points win.

    Good luck Martin

    1. Well done again on Sat. I rather wish Honest Vic was 12s when I looked but in fairness he made his morning 7s look generous. GL tomorrow as always.
      Itchy Feet could well be another Rouge Vif, we shall see.

      As an aside, and out of interest given your turnover will be higher than most here I suspect, how/when do you bet on horses, generally? I know you post evening before etc but are you mainly exchanges , taking a price/ BFSP, a mix? Or do you wait until morning to ensure you get BOG, if you’ve got any accounts left of course?

      Josh

      1. I can still get on with Bet365 and William Hill and can get on OK for multiples. I get limited on singles to £50 with them and Bet Victor (do not allow me multiples). I do like multiples as you can pick up a few grand if you can hit four winners, which does happen occasionally. I do have an account with Star Sports but there odds are not very competitive in my eyes. Other than that I am on the exchanges if we are talking online. Mostly Betfair SP and Matchbook.

        I can always drive in to Maidstone town centre and spread cash around the bookies there. But Betfair SP is usually OK, so I do not bother much making the trip.

    2. You`ll be glad to know Martin, I`ve also picked out Minella, think it will run well on this flatter track, the sloppier it gets the more he will love it.

      1. Are we looking at a different Minella Celbration or have I got him wrong?? He’s a summer/good ground horse isn’t he? He ran ok at Doncaster when soft, but not a bog, and either idled or tied up in final few yards, this is softer and further – I don’t know where the view comes from that he’s going to love it sloppy? If he handles it i agree he will run a cracker and this will have been the plan given his record fresh. Over fences he’s 5/15,9p on Good/Good to Firm, 1/7,2p on GS, Soft, the win on GS, at Aintree, in June. Anyway, a game of opinion! I’ve concluded he will struggle in final furlong but we will find out soon enough. Maybe as he gets older it all comes alike to him, which is possible. GL

        1. i didn’t have the balls to upset the apple kart here Josh but glad you’v said the same what i was thinking, iv got Minella down as a Summer jumps horse and Vintage clouds not liking the fences, that’s probs more National fences in truth tho
          Thought i was miles away with how i was seeing it
          it literally didn’t stop raining yesterday im not far away, so i know it will be fresh ground there but it’s been raining again this morning

          1. He has ran OK on soft ground . Maybe the trainer has campaigned him for summer races due to the level of opposition is easier? My one caveat is the trainer, unsure she fully knows what to do best?

            But anyway, we shall see. It is only one race and you get some right and get some wrong. I would not rule out a horse purely on the ground as a general rule, I accept some horses do not go on certain ground but not all.

            Good luck Martin

          2. Oh I agree with the assessment of not ruling out due to ground as such, everything has a price! Then a subjective value call around what was 6s, 13/2 etc, and unsurprisingly, we’ve all come to different conclusions on that front!
            Josh

  2. 1 winner 12/1 from 4 runners yesterday, profit. Only 2 sel today.

    Hey Bob…………..20/1
    14:40Hexham
    Activial……………14/1
    13:22Aintree

    Mike

  3. 4 for today, some prices are going even as i type but i can only state the price i have taken.
    Hexham.
    2-40. Camile 13-2 4p sky
    3-15. Glorious Lady 6-1 b365
    Longchamp.
    2-50. Subjectivist 6-1 b365
    Aintree.
    3.07 Same Circus 7-1 wh
    1/2 pt ew singles and a 10p ew L15

  4. its quite possibly not going to be origional today, but il do well to stop myself backing the Red Lion in the Vets
    So many positives, can find a neg!!!

  5. So, what i will say is, the amount of hatred on twitter for Frodon going for the Gold Cup, as if him and Bryony shouldn`t dare go up against the big boys of Ireland and England, trouble is I remember back in the late eighties when they said Dessie would never win a Gold Cup because he hated Cheltenham and it was a waste of an entrance fee! Everyone loves an underdog though and I believe the options are limited for the owners, so, you know the horse wings every fence at Cheltenham, he loves the track and the jockey, loves the roar of the crowd (hopefully that will be back for March), who better than to lead us out of these pandemic blues than the one true blue FRODON and Bryony!! My heart will always rule my head on that one..
    Like i said unfortunately, have to dash off to look after my Sunday league team today, so, don`t have time for full write ups, sorry.
    1.22 Aintree
    MINELLACELEBRATION 1pt win 7/1 gen
    winner over Course and Distance in a bog, so, for me has ideal conditions again and is value at the prices.
    VINTAGE CLOUDS 1pt win 11/1 gen
    For me the value in all of this, class over these fences before and i think is a little over priced at the moment, you`ll know if it`s fancied because Mr Hemmings does like a bet!!
    1.57 Aintree
    MAGIC SAINT 1pt win 7/1 gen
    Could be anything and with Mr Cobden on board another one of those that the trainer said looks burly, well, we all know about burly types don`t we. I think that translates to will be up for a fight if needed!!
    CREIVEHILL 1pt win 20/1 gen
    Trainer bit in and out of form atm, but, will fire into life at some point and if he was in form i believe this horse would be shorter than this, value at the prices, needs a left handed galloping track to show best.
    3.42 Aintree
    EN MEME TEMPS 1pt win 20/1 gen
    way over priced here for a horse that goes well fresh, will have been primed for this and i have to play at 20/1
    MONTE CRISTO 1pt win 7/1 gen
    Mr Henderson sending just one up here with Nico in the plate, always warrants respect and at the odds is definitely value. Sent off odds on shot for triumph hurdle, so, if he is to get back on track for anything like that form today is the day!

    As always hope all jockeys and horses come back safe and sound and good luck with whatever you select today!

  6. Got through the vets race fairly fast, which never bodes well i dont think
    Perfect Candidate a bit of a head scratcher, i know he’s 13 but ran some good races at the end of last year and then they’v pulled him out of Chelts yest when he normally runs there alot and Fergal seems to like goin there anyways, so thought strange made the switch here with ground being similar at both on the day.
    Quite a few strange runners in here for me with trip concerns or absence concerns, cant find a reason not to be with Vieux lion rouge. Won a vets race first time up last year so will be here to win. Back down to exactly same mark as last year, gone well at the course before, performs well on soft.
    if he’s regressed over the summer then so be it
    Will be having a saver on one of Josh’s One Style, those are the one’s i struggle with wen a horse has gone up 30lbs fairly quickly and then tries a cl.2 Hcp, but its a Veneitia horse first time out in soft ground, so that’s enough sometimes

  7. Has to be Imperial Presence in the 13:57 at Aintree if the Really Super race is to be followed again. Fidux came good and this IP has won 2 since with the penultimate race working out brilliantly too, now 6/18. Oldgrangewood doesn’t look like he goes well fresh, and I’m not keen on horses chasing hattricks either as in IP.

  8. Well, I’ll have to eat humble pie there. Well done to Minella supporters. Could call him the winner after 1/2 mile. He has tanked through that. Whatever the ground is, no problem. Damn. Well done all

    1. I just looked through all his form, maybe I`ve read it wrong, but, sure I read a quote from the trainer saying the horse goes on anything and maybe the softer the better, will try and dig it out and to me I think has only been put over summer jumps because of opportunities open to him. They had looked at Aintree a couple of times, before today, so, maybe it wasn`t as sloppy as suggested out there!?

      1. Oh i’ve just had a naff weekend of changing decisions from first pick – he was another! – i have over thought the ground, knowing full well it shouldn’t have ridden too badly, and he did handle it at Donny – more a case of i think he’s better on decent ground but soft clearly fine, and he is getting older. Clearly target, right age, a chase winning machine, course form etc. One of those, like with Honest vic, where I agonised over odd niggle at 13/2, 7s, and made the wrong call. As I did with Frodon, Rouge…I’ve just tried to be too clever for some reason- and well I don’t wish to discuss my initial instinct poke for The Old Roan – why not just wake up on a Sunday morning and over think everything again! Painful.
        Some lessons there that I need to learn quickly from and buck my ideas up, otherwise i’m in trouble. More pros than cons from being as close as I was but still rather frustrating!
        Josh

  9. Hats off again there Stewart, and Martin
    Wont see an easier winner
    il be looking back at that because i was nowhere near, not good

  10. Great watch on racing tv – Luck on Sunday talks to Patrick Veitch.
    I’ve got to agree with him in principle that there’s far too much racing these days.
    Racing is pretty boring these days, it’s so hard to enjoy a race before it’s on to the next one.
    Pretty pathetic how they’ve changed the times using 2 or 3 minutes instead of 5 or 10 to cram them all in.
    95% of racing is crap these days with low grade small field rubbish making it hard to imagine how anyone can sit there all day and watch all the races and genuinely enjoy it.

  11. I get that the 13:57 at Aintree is a decent race so why show some shitty Galway race that finishes right on the Aintree off time instead of a preview. Certainly won’t ever pay for a subscription to watch racing again !!!

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